ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL ACUS01 KWNS 310551 SPC AC 310551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2003 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 30 ESE INK 60 ENE BGS 20 NNE FSI END 10 W HUT 25 N RSL HLC 30 ENE GLD 25 WNW LAA 45 WSW CAO 55 SSE LVS 40 NNW ALM 45 WSW ALM 35 SSE DMN ...CONT... 25 W YUM 30 SSW BLH EED 55 SSW DRA 40 WNW BIH 35 NNE SAC 40 NE SVE WMC 60 S EKO 25 S CDC 30 W CEZ 25 NNW GUC 40 WSW LAR 25 NE DGW 45 E 81V 30 NNE RAP 40 E PHP 50 W YKN 25 SSE SUX 45 NNW OTM 45 NE MLI 35 NE FWA 25 ENE LBE 10 N BWI 30 ENE SBY ...CONT... 15 WSW CRE 25 WSW CAE 40 SSW AHN 35 ESE CSG ABY 10 SE SSI ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN MO/NERN AR TO LOWER OH VALLEY... VIGOROUS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED 500 MB LOW...CURRENTLY OVER ERN WY PER WV IMAGERY...WILL TRACK ESEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...REACHING ERN NEB/IA BY 12Z MONDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS...MERGING WITH THE WY SYSTEM THIS PERIOD. SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER NRN OK AND WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD THROUGH NRN AR TO THE TN VALLEY WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS ERN KS AND THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS. DEEP SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD SUSTAINING MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ACROSS MO/NRN AR TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL STATES...WITH SOME BREAKS OVER NRN LA TO SRN AR. 00Z ETA/ETAKF SUGGEST BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL EXIST ACROSS NRN AR/SRN MO...WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AIDING IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HEATING WILL BE REQUIRED TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS...GIVEN THE WEAK LAPSE RATES....TO SUPPORT STRONG STORMS WITHIN REGION OF MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN AR/SRN MO...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FOR WET MICROBURSTS. HOWEVER... ATTM...UNCERTAINTY IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION LEADS TO THE FORECAST OF LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES. THIS REGION MAY BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR SURFACE HEATING/GREATER INSTABILITY. ...TX COASTAL PLAIN TO SWRN LA... POORLY DEFINED T.S. GRACE LOCATED ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE TO THE WNW THIS PERIOD...REACHING THE TX GULF COAST /NEAR CRP/ SUNDAY EVENING AROUND 01/00Z. SEE LATEST DISCUSSIONS/ ADVISORIES FROM NHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS. STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS AND CONVECTION EXTENDS TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER OF T.S. GRACE. A MARGINAL THREAT OF BRIEF TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH ISOLATED STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN RAIN BANDS MOVING ONSHORE NE OF THE CENTER. ..PETERS/CARBIN.. 08/31/2003 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED. $$ |