ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 140529
SPC AC 140529

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2003

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSE MRF FST BGS
MWL PRX GGG LFK 50 NE HOU 30 SSW BPT ...CONT... 20 SE BVE 45 NE MEI
MKL DNV MMO 20 N MLI LNR GRB 10 SSE ESC 25 ENE PLN ...CONT... ERI
MGW BKW TRI AHN 35 SE GNV VRB ...CONT... 10 SSW ILM RWI 10 NNW RIC
10 WNW NHK WAL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND.  MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE FAIRLY POTENT
MIDLEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH...A LEAD IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE MID MS VLY WILL MOVE NEWD
TO LOWER MI AS IT WEAKENS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  AT THE SURFACE...A LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER LOWER MI AND MOVE NEWD INTO ONTARIO WHILE A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES...MID OH VLY...THEN CURVE
SWWD INTO S TX BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR TSTMS
SHOULD EXIST AHEAD OF THE EJECTING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ALONG
THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT IN SWRN TX.

...CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RESIDING OVER THE OH VLY IS EXPECTED TO SURGE
NWD INTO THE MIDWEST AND CNTRL GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE EJECTING
LEAD IMPULSE ON SUNDAY.  BANDS OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS NOW
CROSSING THE MS RVR IN MO/IL SHOULD BE MAINTAINED WITHIN THIS
ENVIRONMENT FROM LOWER MI INTO IND AND WRN OH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 
ENHANCED MIDLEVEL WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS. 
HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AND LIMIT OVERALL
INSTABILITY.  WHILE SHORT LINES OF TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED...ANY WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL BE TEMPERED BY MINIMAL INSTABILITY.

..RACY/KERR.. 09/14/2003

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$