ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL ACUS01 KWNS 050551 SPC AC 050551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CDT SUN OCT 05 2003 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S SPS 40 WSW PRX 20 W TYR 65 NNE CLL 40 WNW JCT 25 NE FST 50 ENE HOB 35 E PVW 20 S SPS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DUG 30 SW ONM 25 NNE GNT 25 NW BCE 80 ESE 4LW 10 SE MHS 35 N MFR 20 S ALW 50 WSW BPI 25 NNW COS 20 N END 40 SW UNO 25 NNW BNA 40 ESE RMG 25 NE LGC 50 N BPT 40 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE 30 N MLB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF W THROUGH N CNTRL TX... ...W THROUGH CNTRL AND N CNTRL TX AREA... MODERATE WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SRN PLAINS IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD THROUGH KS AND OK. SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY SWWD THROUGH SWRN TX. ERN PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER SWD...WHILE WRN PORTION MAY BEGIN TO LIFT NWD THROUGH WRN TX. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR... MAINTAINING A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S LIKELY. SURFACE HEATING WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1800 J/KG. THE STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF W CNTRL TX WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE OVERSPREAD BY STEEPER LAPSE RATES. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG DUE TO RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK CAP MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MORE DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT OF SWRN/W TX AND ERN NM THEN SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD EWD. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AS SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INCREASES AND ENHANCES LIFT ALONG/N OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF W-W CNTRL TX THEN SPREADING EWD INTO N CNTRL/CNTRL TX SUNDAY NIGHT. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS MAINLY IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG/N OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE S OF THE BOUNDARY WITH STORMS SPREADING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO PARTS OF W/SWRN TX. ..DIAL.. 10/05/2003 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED. $$ |