ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 290546
SPC AC 290546

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CST TUE OCT 28 2003

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE ART 50 SSE UCA
15 N AVP 35 WNW IPT 15 NW BFD 30 SW BUF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW MIA 35 N PBI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW GON 15 SSE ORH
25 ENE LCI 35 S HUL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW CTB 35 ESE 3HT
30 WNW REJ 25 SSE FAR 10 NNW DLH 20 E RHI 15 SSW CWA 55 S LSE 20 SE
OTG 30 NNE YKN 50 ENE ANW 50 NW MHN 35 W BFF 45 WSW LAR 40 SSE SLC
35 W DPG 45 NW ENV 15 WNW BYI 10 ESE SUN 40 ENE BOI 30 WNW BOI 70 N
4LW 10 WNW 4BK.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
FIRST MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE OF THE SEASON IS WELL UNDERWAY AS
COLD UPPER TROUGH DIGS SWD INTO THE WRN STATES AND RIDGING INCREASES
ACROSS THE EAST.  PHASING OF THE SRN STREAM MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTING NEWD ALONG THE SERN COAST AND STRONGER NRN STREAM
IMPULSE CROSSING THE MIDWEST WILL BE COMPLETE EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY NEWD THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS
WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  THE LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN RACE NEWD INTO
SERN CANADA OVERNIGHT WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

...SERN NEW ENGLAND...
VERY STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD
RAIN/CLOUDS ACROSS SERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 
WHILE A SMALL WARM SECTOR MAY ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS SERN
NEW ENGLAND...INSTABILITY...EVEN ABOVE THE SHALLOW INVERSION...WILL
BE MINIMAL.  AN ENHANCED NARROW BAND OF FORCED CONVECTION MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MOST OF ERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL WILL BE MINIMAL...EXCEPT PERHAPS ACROSS SERN NEW
ENGLAND.  

INTERESTING SCENARIO WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE PROBABILITIES. AMBIENT
WIND FIELDS WILL ALREADY BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE POTENTIAL WIND
DAMAGE WITH 50-60 KTS OF FLOW RIGHT OFF THE SURFACE.  BUT...WITH
MINIMAL LIGHTING EXPECTED...HAVE OPTED TO DROP CATEGORICAL SLGT
RISK.  HOWEVER...A 5 PERCENT WIND PROBABILITY WAS MAINTAINED OVER
SERN NEW ENGLAND...CLOSER TO WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL
TRY TO WORK ONSHORE.  THE ENHANCED BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT
OFFSHORE OF ME AND SERN MA BY EVENING.

..RACY/JEWELL.. 10/29/2003

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$