ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 080544
SPC AC 080544

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CST FRI NOV 07 2003

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW ONP 25 W SVE
35 NE MER 50 NW BFL 25 SW PRB ...CONT... 70 SSW GDP 25 S GDP 30 NW
INK 55 E LBB 40 NW MWL 35 ESE SEP 20 NW AUS 45 SSE DRT ...CONT... 60
WSW MIA 35 NNW DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE NFL 15 S LOL
65 NW WMC 50 W OWY 15 SSW OWY 60 SSE EKO 30 SW ELY 20 NNW TPH 55 SSE
NFL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ZONAL FLOW WILL COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 THROUGH TODAY WITH
GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS SPREADING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT VERY
SLOWLY SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF NRN CALIFORNIA WITH A STRONG PACIFIC
JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW AND MOVING ACROSS CNTRL CA LATER
TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. POLAR FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST...NRN GULF...AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND MAY CONTINUE TO AID ISOLD SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER SOME
OF THESE AREAS. VERY WARM AND MOIST ELY FLOW...AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS OVER FL MAY LEAD TO SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS ALONG
THE EAST COAST.

...NRN CA...
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
OF MID/UPPER JET COUPLED WITH LOW STATIC STABILITY AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE SHOULD PROMOTE WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE
BAY AREA INLAND ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY LATER TODAY. STRONG
VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FORCING SUGGEST AN
ISOLD LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL THREAT COULD DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON GIVEN SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUD COVER
AND COOL PROFILES WILL RESULT IN ONLY SMALL POCKETS OF LIMITED
SURFACE-BASED CAPE NO GREATER THAN 300 J/KG. THESE CAPE VALUES
SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH/DURATION AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

IF THE DEVELOPMENT OF GREATER INSTABILITY BECOMES MORE CERTAIN...A
SMALL LOW PROBABILITY HAIL AND/OR TORNADO AREA MAY BE ADDED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.

..CARBIN/CROSBIE.. 11/08/2003

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$