ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 021226
SPC AC 021225

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW YUM 45 NW PRC
55 NNE INW 40 WSW 4SL 25 SSW LVS 35 W PVW 50 E LBB 40 N ABI
15 N BWD 65 SSE BWD 10 ENE SAT 40 WNW NIR 40 WNW MFE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S PFN 20 W MGR
10 N AGS 30 E CLT 25 SE LYH 25 WSW DCA 15 W TTN 30 W BDR 35 N HYA.

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ZONAL ACROSS THE
CONUS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TRANSLATES EWD INTO
NEW ENGLAND AND CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER SRN NV OPENS AND EJECTS EWD
INTO THE SRN PLAINS.  STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF STATES WHILE A STRENGTHENING
BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET IS FORECAST FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE
NRN PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW OVER ERN NC/SERN VA WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
RAPIDLY NEWD ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SEWD THROUGH
NRN/CNTRL FL BEFORE STALLING FROM SRN FL WWD INTO FAR SRN TX. 

...NRN AND CNTRL FL...
SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING ALONG COLD FRONT
MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE AREA.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. 
MOREOVER...MID/UPPER-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG
WITH 500 MB WINDS OF 80-85 KT FORECAST ACROSS NRN FL.  IT APPEARS
THAT THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL BE THE DIMINISHING FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
VEER IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
SUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENTAL BUOYANCY/SHEAR...AN ISOLATED THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL/WIND DAMAGE EXISTS WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF TSTMS
MOVING ONSHORE.
  
...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SWRN TX...
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD OVER SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS SRN TX IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF NV INTO
THE SRN PLAINS.  WHILE POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY
SUPPRESS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION OVER S TX...DIFFERENTIAL
THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CREATE AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR ELEVATED TSTMS N OF THE SURFACE FRONT FROM DRT AND
SAT NWWD INTO WRN/SWRN TX.  MARGINAL INSTABILITY --MUCAPES AOB 500
J/KG-- WILL LIMIT HAIL THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.     

..MEAD.. 03/02/03

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