ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL ACUS01 KWNS 291243 SPC AC 291232 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 291300Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE OKC 20 N SPS 50 SSE CDS 15 SE LBB 45 S CVS 70 ENE 4CR 25 NW LVS 10 NE ALS 60 ENE GUC 30 S 4FC 10 E 4FC 25 SSE FCL 30 E DEN 25 SSW LIC 20 WSW LAA 40 SSE LAA 25 NW LBL 35 NE LBL 35 NW P28 30 ENE HUT 35 WSW EMP 35 S EMP 35 N BVO 15 WSW BVO 30 ENE OKC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE EFK 15 SSW LEB 15 S PSF 20 SW POU 20 N ABE 25 N CXY 20 WNW AOO 25 WNW HLG 25 SW MFD 40 ESE FWA 40 NNW FWA 20 SW LAN 65 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE FSM 40 ESE PGO 40 S HOT PBF 40 SW MEM 40 N MSL 30 WSW TYS 35 SE TRI 40 WNW DAN 35 SSW CHO 20 NE SHD 30 SE MGW 15 S UNI 50 WNW SDF 10 W MVN 40 E VIH 25 W TBN 15 E UMN 25 NNE FSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CTB 60 E BIL 40 N 81V 10 SSE RAP 50 NW MHN 25 W BBW GRI 20 ENE LNK 35 W DSM 15 E CID 10 W RFD 30 ENE MSN 15 NNW VOK 30 NW EAU 15 SW DLH 35 WNW ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W DUG 30 N SAD 40 SSW GUP 15 N FMN 20 S MTJ 45 SSW CAG 25 ENE RKS 35 SE JAC 35 WSW MQM 60 SW 27U 10 WNW BOI 25 SE BNO 40 S RDM 20 NE ONP. ...NERN U.S... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS LOWER MI...IS MOVING EWD AT ROUGHLY 40KT TOWARD SERN ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED UPPER SPEED MAX WILL APPROACH UPSTATE NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH 12Z SOUNDINGS ARE INITIALLY SOMEWHAT DRY AND STABLE ACROSS THIS REGION...DEEP WLY FETCH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WILL ADVECT CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA BY PEAK HEATING. IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM QUICKLY ACROSS OH INTO WRN PA AND EXTREME WRN PORTIONS OF NY. THIS SHOULD AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WHERE SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES WILL PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION AND POSE AT LEAST LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT BEFORE ACTIVITY MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND WEAKENS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS... LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS HAS SINCE MOVED EWD INTO KS/OK AND WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. WITHIN THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY IS AN APPARENT MVC WSW OF ICT. THIS FEATURE IS LIFTING ENEWD ACROSS SRN KS AND MAY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO PORTIONS OF SERN KS/NERN OK WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. IN THE WAKE OF LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS AND DECAYING PRECIPITATION SHIELD...SUNSHINE/DESTABILIZATION WILL INITIALLY BE DELAYED. VERY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...ON THE ORDER OF 10-15KT...WILL CREATE CHALLENGES FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION IN TERMS OF ORGANIZATION. UNLESS ANOTHER EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD/MCS CAN DEVELOP...ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT DEVELOP...BUT REMAIN MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE ACROSS THIS REGION. ITS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR ATTM EXACTLY HOW LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE/MATURE ACROSS SLIGHT RISK REGION. IF STRONG HEATING DOES NOT MATERIALIZE IN WAKE OF DECAYING MCS...SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REMOVED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..DARROW.. 06/29/03 NNNN |