ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 301246
SPC AC 301240

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 301300Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 SW WAL 15 N RIC 15 WSW CHO 40 SW EKN 25 SE PKB 20 SSW HLG
25 W LBE 35 E AOO 25 SSW ABE 20 NE NEL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
55 NNE ISN 35 ESE SDY 55 SSE GDV 10 NW 4BQ 30 NNW SHR 35 N COD
25 NNE WEY 20 ENE DLN 20 ESE 3DU 45 WNW GTF 55 ENE CTB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 WSW 7R4 35 SSW ESF 30 NNE ESF 40 NE HEZ 15 W LUL 40 NNW MOB
15 WSW PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N MOT 40 NW BIS
45 NW PIR 20 SW VTN 15 S LBF 25 N HLC 15 SSW CNK 35 NNE STJ
40 SE OTM 50 SW SBN 30 E FDY 25 WNW FKL ELM 25 S SYR 15 SSW ART.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FHU 45 ENE SAD
50 S GNT 20 SW 4SL 55 WNW ALS ASE 40 NNE CAG 45 NNW RWL 30 NNW RIW
30 NNW JAC 25 NNE SUN 60 NNE BOI 25 S S80 20 WSW S06 95 NW FCA.



...MT...

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS MT TODAY AS STRONG SPEED MAX AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFT NEWD ACROSS WA INTO SERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA.  EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A N-S BAND OF
BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN WARM ADVECTION
REGIME ACROSS WRN MT...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXIST ACROSS ERN
HALF OF THE STATE.  STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN/WRN MT AS
MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES.  SFC DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY RISE INTO
THE 50S ACROSS MT EAST OF THE ROCKIES AS PRESSURES FALL IN RESPONSE
TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ALLOWING SBCAPES TO INCREASE TO AROUND
1500 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODIFIED
INVERTED-V-TYPE PROFILES...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO
LARGE HAIL.  ACTIVITY WILL INITIALLY BEGIN ISOLATED-SCT IN
NATURE...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME THREAT FOR ONE OR MORE
ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF BOW-TYPE STRUCTURES.  THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD LIFT NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NRN MT THIS EVENING
BEFORE MOVING INTO SRN CANADA.

...DELMARVA...

UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SWD ACROSS NH...MOVING EWD INTO
NRN NEW ENGLAND WITH WEAK FLAT RIDGING OBSERVED ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY.  A ROUGHLY 50MI WIDE BAND OF MID LEVEL CONVECTION JUST
NORTH OF SWD-SAGGING WIND SHIFT WILL STREAK EWD ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY AND PA TODAY.  CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND LIMITED SUNSHINE
ACROSS THIS REGION WILL SHARPEN THE BOUNDARY BY MID DAY AS STRONG
HEATING OCCURS ACROSS VA.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SERVE AS THE
FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS THIS REGION. 
BOTH IAD AND WAL SUGGEST WARM SECTOR CONVERGENCE IS FAIRLY WEAK SO
ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TIGHT AGAINST THIS WIND SHIFT.  DAMAGING WINDS
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH STRONGEST STORMS.

...GULF COAST...

TROPICAL STORM BILL IS LOCATED OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO...JUST
SOUTH OF LA...MOVING NWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL LA COAST.  EXPECTED
LANDFALL IS EARLY AFTERNOON PER LATEST MOVEMENT.  SEE NHC FOR
URTHER DETAILS ON THIS STORM.  AS BILL LIFTS NWD...LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL INCREASE TO THE EAST OF THE EXPECTED STORM TRACK.  REGIONAL
RADAR DATA ALREADY INDICATES STRONG OUTER BANDS OF CONVECTION
ROTATING INLAND ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.  EACH SUCCESSIVE BAND WILL
LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASED NUMBER OF EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS...AND A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR TORNADOES.
 
..DARROW.. 06/30/03

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