ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL ACUS01 KWNS 131330 SPC AC 131330 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0830 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2003 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE IPL 55 NW BLH 40 SSE SLC 40 ESE MLD IDA 25 SSW 27U 55 E BKE 55 WSW BNO 25 N MHS 40 ENE CEC 15 NE OTH 15 SW OLM 15 NNW BLI ...CONT... 60 N DVL 20 W REJ 60 SSE 81V 25 SW BFF 40 NW LAA CVS 20 WNW LBB 10 NNW CDS 35 NNE GAG 35 NE ICT 15 ESE OJC 25 NNW SPI 35 ENE FWA 20 W CLE ...CONT... 45 WNW 3B1 40 NNE BGR 20 NNW EPM ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AS A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTER WILL MIGRATE WWD ACROSS SCNTRL TX. AT THE SFC...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS MT WITH A WEAK LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. ..TX/SE OK/SW AR/LA... ANALYSIS SHOWS MID TO UPPER 60S EXISTS ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS LA. SFC HEATING TODAY WILL RESULT IN 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF TX AND LA. AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS INTO THE AFTERNOON...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE TX HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG COASTAL SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NE TX AND IN THE SRN OZARKS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL RESULT IN A MULTICELL MODE OF CONVECTION. LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPEST IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND ACROSS NE TX WHERE A MARGINAL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED HAIL. OTHERWISE...THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK ATTM. ...ERN AZ/WRN NM... SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MTNS AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS ALONG A LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS EXISTING ACROSS SERN AZ AND SW NM. MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TODAY AS NELY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN 25 TO 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STRONG MULTICELL CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL ATTM...AN ISOLATED DAMAGING GUST OR HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS CONSIDERING THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AMOUNT OF SHEAR IN PLACE. ...MT... A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN CA THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NWD AND DAMPEN TODAY. SFC HEATING AND TOPOGRAPHIC FORCING WILL LIKELY CAUSE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE MTNS OF SRN AND CNTRL MT THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY ALSO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MT TODAY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 60 KT. GIVEN ENOUGH INSTABILITY...THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED V PROFILES WOULD FAVOR ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IF STRONG CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THE THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW FOR A SLIGHT RISK ATTM. ..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 08/13/2003 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED. $$ |