ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 141252
SPC AC 141252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2003

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S YUM 25 ESE EED
45 NNE P38 25 SSE TWF 35 E BTM 45 NNW LWT 65 ENE HVR ...CONT... 25
ESE RRT 45 SW BIS 45 E 81V 35 WSW DGW 45 S RWL 15 NE CAG 25 NNW EGE
10 SSW COS EHA 25 SSE LBL 40 ESE P28 35 WNW JLN 25 SE VIH 35 E VIH
40 NE VIH 35 ENE COU 25 NNW LWD 45 W DSM 35 S FOD 20 SE VOK 50 SW
HTL 30 NE MTC ...CONT... 55 NW 3B1 EPM

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ERN PACIFIC UPPER-TROUGH WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD AS A BELT OF STRONG
WESTERLIES RIDES OVER THE GREAT PLAINS RIDGE AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. IN ADDITION...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
SRN FL AND INTO THE ERN GULF. AT THE LOWER-LEVELS...A STATIONARY
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS MT AND NWRN ND

...SRN FL...
A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS SRN FL AND EXTENDING
JUST OFFSHORE WILL MOVE EWD THIS MORNING. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT ALONG THE FAR SRN AND ERN COAST OF FL. THE INSTABILITY WILL
FURTHER INCREASE AS SFC HEATING OCCURS THIS MORNING LIKELY HELPING
THE CONVECTION TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH 15Z....REFERENCE MCD
2153. MFL 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG. AS THE
CLUSTER MOVES EWD...A BAND OF STRONGER ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE
ERN FL COAST SHOULD MOVE INLAND. THIS WOULD SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN THE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES LATER THIS MORNING. AN ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST ASSOCIATED WITH DOWNBURSTS IN THE
STRONGER CONVECTIVE BANDS.

...ERN AZ/WRN NM...
A LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOIST PLUME EXISTS THIS MORNING FROM SCNTRL AZ
EXTENDING NWD INTO SRN UT. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F
ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL AZ WHICH WITH SFC HEATING WILL CREATE MODERATE
INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE MTNS OF
SERN AZ AND WRN NM AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION APPEARS LIKELY AS A BAND OF STRONGER NELY
MID-LEVEL FLOW MOVES SLOWLY WWD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN NM AND ERN
AZ. 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 45 KT SHOULD BE PRESENT ALONG WITH
STRONGLY VEERED WIND PROFILES WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS. AS THE CONVECTION MATURES THIS AFTERNOON...THE AMOUNT
OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE INVERTED V PROFILES COULD
BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT

...ERN MT/NRN ND...
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS
EXISTS ACROSS ERN MT. AS TEMPS WARM THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP WITH MLCAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE
WEAK...DESTABILIZATION AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED CONVECTION IN ERN MT OR WRN
ND. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KT WILL MAKE ORGANIZED MULTICELLS
POSSIBLE WITH A MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING
WINDS. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO
ISOLATED FOR A SLIGHT RISK ATTM.

..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 08/14/2003

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$