ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL ACUS01 KWNS 061227 SPC AC 061227 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 AM CDT SAT SEP 06 2003 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SE YUM 45 E DAG 10 WNW TPH 15 N BAM 85 SSE BNO 55 SSW BNO 25 ESE RDM 35 WSW YKM 65 NW EAT 40 N 4OM ...CONT... 30 NNE CTB 25 WNW REJ 35 SSW MHN 30 NNE HLC 50 SSE DDC 35 NW PVW 25 NW BGS 55 W JCT 15 S HDO 40 SW PSX ...CONT... 30 S HUM 15 NNE HEZ 30 NW GLH 25 NNE UOX 30 S TYS 40 S SPA 30 NNE FLO 20 WSW HSE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... WRN U.S. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SPLIT BY A SPEED MAX AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM SRN NV TO THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY. AS A RESULT...ONE MID LEVEL HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT SWWD TO THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/NRN BAJA WHILE THE NRN COMPONENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS ACROSS ERN CO/NM. MEANWHILE...T.D. HENRI WILL TRACK ACROSS CNTRL FL THIS MORNING AND EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ALONG A STALLED FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND HENRI...AND BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...HELP MAINTAIN DEEP MOIST SELY FLOW INTO SERN GA AND THE ERN CAROLINAS. LASTLY...A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AND HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF WA AND ORE BY EARLY SUNDAY. ...SRN UT/NRN AZ TO WRN NM... A CLUSTER OF TSTMS WAS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS NWRN AZ AND PROVIDES EVIDENCE THAT FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WAS ACCOMPANYING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM NV. CONTINUED LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE RIM...SRN UT AND SEWD OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF ERN AZ AND WRN NM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MONSOON MOISTURE AND HEATING WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY WITH POCKETS OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROMOTING STORM ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY. EXPECT THAT A FEW HAIL AND WIND REPORTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS ACTIVITY BUT OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DOES NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR TO WARRANT HIGHER PROBABILITIES. ...CNTRL FL NEWD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST... LOCALLY ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR/NORTH OF HENRI TRACK...AS WELL AS ALONG STALLED COASTAL FRONT...WHERE LOW LEVEL ESELY FLOW IS TOPPED BY WLY FLOW IN MID LEVELS. IN ADDITION...LOW LCL/LFC IN TROPICAL MARITIME AIRMASS COULD FURTHER FAVOR STORM ROTATION REACHING THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF A BRIEF VERY ISOLD TORNADO OR WATERSPOUT. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED TO A NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE TRACK OF HENRI THIS MORNING...AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF GA/SC/SERN NC THROUGH TODAY. SITUATION DOES NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAT 2 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITIES FOR THESE LOCATIONS. ...NERN NM/ERN CO/WRN KS... SSELY FLOW WAS RETURNING GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE HIGH PLAINS AND THIS SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH HEATING OF THE DAY. EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN LEE/THERMAL TROUGH AXIS BY AFTERNOON AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FURTHER SUSTAINED BY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX AND UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS. WEAK WIND FIELDS INDICATE LIMITED STORM ORGANIZATION WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLD STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR PERHAPS A COUPLE OF HAIL REPORTS. ..CARBIN/CROSBIE.. 09/06/2003 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED. $$ |