ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 051218
SPC AC 051218

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0718 AM CDT SUN OCT 05 2003

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW
SPS 45 NE DAL 20 W TYR 65 NNE CLL 65 SSE BWD 70 E FST 30 ESE INK 45
W LBB 40 WSW CDS 50 SW SPS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW FHU 85 NNW SVC
30 WSW GNT 60 WSW FMN 20 NNE CDC 15 SSW U31 20 N SVE LMT 35 NNW RDM
10 NNW PDT 25 SSE S80 50 WSW BPI 35 N COS 20 SW GCK 25 NNE END 15
ENE TUL 20 W ARG 45 ENE MKL 40 WSW CSV 40 ENE RMG 25 E LGC 20 ENE
MGM 35 E LFK 35 SW CLL 40 SE DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
WESTERN TX...

...TX...

SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE EWD TODAY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW WITHIN THE BASE OF LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE MS/TN VALLEY REGION.  TRAILING PORTIONS OF THIS
FEATURE APPEAR TO BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLY MORNING CONVECTION
ALONG I-20 CORRIDOR FROM NEAR ABI INTO THE METROPLEX.  AS SHORTWAVE
SHIFTS EWD...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG FRONTAL ZONE WILL EASE
AS LLJ VEERS AND DECREASES IN INTENSITY WITH TROUGH PASSAGE.  IT
APPEARS CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTH TX BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE PECOS REGION INTO
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WILL ENHANCE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES/INSTABILITY
WITHIN A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT ALONG TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY. 
CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE WAKE OF LEAD TROUGH IS
NOT THAT HIGH...DESPITE WEAK INHIBITION.  HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DOES INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TURNING SEWD
ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION TOWARD THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS. 
CURRENT SPEED/MOVEMENT FAVORS EARLY EVENING ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS
A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...SBCAPES FROM 1000-1500J/KG.  IN
ADDITION...SSWLY LLJ SHOULD RESPOND TO THIS FEATURE AND INCREASE TO
ROUGHLY 20-25KT ENHANCING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.  SECONDARY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY BY MID EVENING ACROSS THIS REGION
WHERE DEEP VEERING PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT STORM ROTATION...GIVEN EXPECTED INSTABILITY ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE.  A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS COULD EMERGE AFTER DARK BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.

..DARROW/BANACOS.. 10/05/2003

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$