ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 011243
SPC AC 011243

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 AM CST SAT NOV 01 2003

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E ICT 60 W GAG 15
SSE EHA 60 S GLD 20 S LBF 40 NW OFK 25 SW MCW 20 N MKE 35 E CGX CMI
35 S UIN 15 SSW STL 50 SE VIH 30 ESE UMN 10 W MKO 30 SSE PNC 45 E
ICT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY WITH POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH PREVAILING IN THE W AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT OVER
MUCH OF THE E. SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH...INCLUDING A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX CURRENTLY OVER SRN NV/UT
THAT WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NERN U.S. SWWD THROUGH
NRN TX AND INTO NM. HOWEVER...THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT NWD AS THE UPPER MS VALLEY SURFACE RIDGE MOVES FARTHER E AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO SELY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS LATER TODAY.


...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MID MS VALLEY...

A DEEP...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RESIDES S OF TX PORTION OF FRONT. LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN
A SHALLOW LAYER ON COOL SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER RIDGE ARE RESULTING IN POOR
LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG. ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE HAS APPARENTLY NOT BEEN DEEP ENOUGH TO
SIGNIFICANTLY ERODE THE MID LEVEL INVERSION IN MOST AREAS.
THEREFORE...ONLY ISOLATED STRIKES AT MOST ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
ELEVATED SHALLOW CONVECTION FROM NE OK/SE KS THROUGH SRN/CNTRL MO
THIS MORNING.

A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST TONIGHT AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS NWD TOWARD INCREASINGLY COOLER MID LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES TO AOA
50KT IN VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS KS. DESTABILIZATION AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROCESS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM KS THROUGH PARTS OF NEB/IA/NRN
MO AND IL TONIGHT. UNLIKE YESTERDAY...COOLER MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT MORE CAPE AND LESS INHIBITION.

..DIAL.. 11/01/2003

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$