SPC Day 1 Thunderstorm Outlook Issued 16Z 20030129


ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 291553
SPC AC 291551

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE GLS 40 WNW POE
50 WSW MLU 45 NNW GWO 15 NNE UOX 45 SE MKL 45 SW BNA 25 ENE CSV
15 ESE TRI 35 W GSO 25 SSE GSO 10 NNW SOP 15 WSW FLO AGS 30 NE MCN
35 SW CSG 30 ESE GPT.


PROGRESSIVE BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY WEAK S/WV TROUGHS ROTATING THRU THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH WITH ONE CURRENTLY CROSSING CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
ANOTHER DROPPING ESEWD ACROSS N CENTRAL STATES INTO OH VALLEY. 
COLD FRONT  EXTENDING FROM ERN KY WSWWD INTO CENTRAL AR AND NRN TX
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SEWD INTO GULF COAST STATES  BY TONIGHT.

SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS PRECEDING
FRONT INTO LOWER MS VALLEY.  WITH EXTENSIVE COLD COVER AND WEAK
LAPSE RATES...ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION.  WILL CONTINUE AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT...HOWEVER COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIMITED GIVEN
THE LACK OF FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS. 
 
..HALES.. 01/29/03

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