ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 011620
SPC AC 011616

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB
50 SSE CTY ...CONT... 20 SW PNS 30 NNE PNS 15 N CEW DHN 35 WSW ABY
20 NE SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BIH 20 E TPH
10 SSW MLF 55 SW PUC 25 ESE CNY 40 N DRO 40 NW 4SL 30 SSE GUP
25 S SOW 15 SSW PHX 15 SSE TRM EDW 60 NNE BFL BIH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE 7R4
35 NNW GPT 10 W SEM 25 NNE ATL 20 SE PSK 15 NNW DCA 30 NE SBY
...CONT... PBI 10 WSW FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW SPS FSI
35 E FSI 30 NE ADM 15 SW MLC 30 ESE MLC 45 S PGO 25 WSW TXK
30 NW GGG 10 NNW FTW 35 NW MWL 15 NW SPS.


...SYNOPSIS...

STRONG WLYS EXTEND FROM NRN MEXICO EWD ACROSS GULF COAST STATES
INTO ATLANTIC OCEAN. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS ACROSS
NRN FL WWD INTO NRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SE OF MOUTH OF MISSISSIPPI. VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR ACROSS
ERN GULF AND FL PENINSULA WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW
SPREADING MOISTURE AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS NEWD
ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE.

...NRN FL/SERN AL/SRN GA...

WITH SURFACE LOW FORECASTED TO DEVELOP NEWD AND INLAND ACROSS SRN
GA LATER TODAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS NRN FL TO NEAR
GA BORDER DURING AFTERNOON.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ALREADY
FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED ROTATING STORMS ACROSS NERN FL THIS
AM...EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
SPEED MAX NOW MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS TX APPROACHES.

WITH NWD MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONT TO NEAR SRN GA BORDER...BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM FL PANHANDLE EWD
VICINITY NERN FL/GA BORDER. REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORABLE ZONE INTO THIS EVENING AT
WHICH TIME LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO MORE WLY AS SPEED MAX 
MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS SERN STATES AND INTO ATLANTIC.

WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG IN WARM SECTOR AND HELICITIES OF
200-300 J/KG...SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SLIGHT RISK
AREA WITH PRIMARY THREAT CONTINUING TO BE LARGE HAIL.  HOWEVER WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING IN WARM SECTOR AND FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTING  FURTHER
N...POTENTIAL  FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL INCREASE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.
 
 
..HALES.. 03/01/03

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