ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 031641
SPC AC 031641

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 S LSE 15 NW MSN RFD 35 WSW MMO 30 SE IRK 15 ENE MKC 15 SSW TOP
MHK 30 E CNK 15 S LNK 15 ESE OMA 40 NW DSM 30 NNW ALO 35 S LSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE CTB 25 E LWT
15 WNW 4BQ 40 SSW RAP 30 SSE BFF 45 NE GJT 45 WSW DPG 40 SE BAM
25 N LOL 45 ESE RBL 50 NW UKI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MSS 25 N BOS
20 WSW BID 25 S JFK 20 NE CXY 30 ENE PIT 40 SE DAY 25 S SDF
20 W HOP 30 SSE JBR 30 E ELD 35 NNE LFK 20 WNW NIR 35 NW HDO
20 SSW FSI 10 NNW HUT 10 W LNK 50 S SPW 40 W RST 60 N EAU
35 WNW IMT 155 ENE APN.


...NERN KS/SERN NEB INTO IA/NRN IL...
SURFACE LOW NOW OVER W-CENTRAL IA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ENEWD
TOWARDS NERN IA/SWRN WI THROUGH THE DAY...WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM
FRONT LIFTING NWD TOWARDS THE IL/WI BORDER BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. 
AXIS OF MID TO UPPER 50F DEW POINTS ALREADY EXTENDS NEWD INTO SWRN
IA.  CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW LIFTING
NEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS WILL LIMIT HEATING OVER PARTS OF THIS AREA
TODAY...MUCH OF KS/NE AND WRN IA WILL LIKELY UNDERGO SOME CLEARING
AND HEATING TO OCCUR AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING QUICKLY
SWD IN WAKE OF SURFACE LOW.  IN ADDITION...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
SUPPLEMENT SURFACE HEATING AND AID IN WEAKENING INVERSION BY LATE
IN THE DAY.  THUS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BOTH NEAR THE COLD FRONT INTO NWRN
MO/NERN KS/FAR SERN NEB AND INVOF LOW CENTER OVER ERN IA/NRN IL. 
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. 

...SRN PLAINS...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...UNDER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER NOW OVERSPREADING THE SRN
PLAINS.  CAPPING WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...
ESPECIALLY FROM SERN KS INTO NERN TX WHERE CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT
HEATING.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED AND
NON-SEVERE.  WRN EDGE OF SRN STREAM CLOUD SHIELD WILL SPREAD EAST
OF THE DRY LINE BY LATE IN THE DAY AND SUPPORT STRONG HEATING INTO
WRN OK/NWRN TX...WHERE AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER/MID
80S.  THIS WILL WEAKEN CAP NEAR THE DRY LINE...HOWEVER LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF EJECTING SRN STREAM TROUGH AND MAINTENANCE OF
WEAK CAPPING SHOULD INHIBIT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ALONG THE DRY
LINE TODAY.  HOWEVER GIVEN THE FORECAST OF A WEAKENING CAP NEAR THE
DRY LINE LATER TODAY...LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WARRANTED. 
 
..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 04/03/03

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