ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL ACUS01 KWNS 261602 SPC AC 261601 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 261630Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE GDV 25 SSW REJ 25 NW SNY 25 E LIC 50 N CAO 30 NW CAO 20 ESE RTN 20 WSW RTN 35 ESE ALS 50 WSW COS 30 NNE 4FC 35 SSW DGW 60 N CPR 35 NNE WRL 50 S BIL 10 N BIL 65 NNE BIL 60 SSW GGW 25 SW OLF 15 WSW SDY 45 ESE GDV. THERE IS ALSO A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CHS 40 NNW CHS 20 NNE FLO 30 NE FAY 30 ENE RWI 15 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE SSI 20 S AYS 30 SSE TLH ...CONT... 15 NE GLS 50 N PSX 15 W NIR 45 WNW MFE ...CONT... 40 SE ELP 25 NNE ELP 60 NW TCS 40 NNE GUP 20 NE GJT 20 NW RWL LND 35 SE JAC 20 NW BOI 15 ESE BKE 35 SSW LWS 40 NE PUW 85 NW FCA ...CONT... 75 NE DVL 25 SW JMS 20 E PHP 25 SW LBL 20 SE PVW 60 NNW ABI 20 WSW FTW 40 SSW ELD 40 NE MEI 10 SW ATL 30 SW AVL 30 SE TRI 10 WSW PSK 20 NNW LYH 30 SSW WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW STL 50 ENE COU 40 ESE UIN 20 NNW DEC 15 SE DNV IND 35 NNW SDF 30 NE OWB 25 N PAH 25 W MDH 45 SSW STL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW PBG 10 E ALB POU 20 WNW TTN 35 WNW CXY 30 NNE PSB 20 N BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE SRQ 25 NNW MLB. SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. THIS IS DOMINATED BY MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION COVERING THE CENTRAL AND ERN PARTS OF THE U.S. ALSO...HI AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CA NEWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS LEAVING MODERATE FLOW OVER THE NWRN U.S. SURFACE RIDGING OVER SWRN ONTARIO NOW EXTENDS SWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS HAS LEFT A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM ERN NC WSWWD ACROSS SRN MS INTO THE S PLAINS OF TX AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE SRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO ERN MT. ...CENTRAL AND ERN MT INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF CO... SURFACE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN PUSHED UP AGAINST THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS EXTENDED SWD INTO THE PLAINS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES LOW COMBINED WITH MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NWRN U.S. HAS DELINEATED A DEFORMATION ZONE OVER ERN MT SWD THROUGH ERN WY. 00Z VERSION OF NSSL MM5 SHOWED THIS AREA TO BE THE BEST FOR DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...AND THE MORNING 40KM ETA ALSO INDICATED THIS AS A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS OVER S CENTRAL MT UNDERNEATH UPPER LEVEL JET EXIT REGION. REMAINING AIR MASS ACROSS THIS AREA IS MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S...AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING IS POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1500 J/KG. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS LOW DEVELOPS ENHANCING UVVS. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL INTO EARLY TONIGHT. AREA EXTENDS SWD INTO PARTS OF CO WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. ...ERN NC AND SC... MODELS INDICATE THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS AREA HAS LIMITED THE ERN AREAS TO ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WLY ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX MOVES EWD ACROSS NRN AL/NRN GA...JUST AHEAD OF COMPARATIVELY STRONGER FEATURE MOVING SWD/SEWD OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN MOIST AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S AND WHERE MODELS SHOW SBCAPE TO APPROACH 2000 J/KG LATER TODAY. SOME WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL EXISTS WITH THE STORMS AS WELL AS SOME HAIL. ..MCCARTHY/BANACOS.. 05/26/03 NNNN |