ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 051626
SPC AC 051622

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 S MHE 30 SSW OTG 35 SW FOD 50 ENE OMA 25 ENE LNK EAR 15 WNW BBW
10 N ANW 25 S MHE.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 ENE PWM 30 W EFK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 NW SYR 40 NE MSV 25 SSW POU 15 WNW TTN HGR 30 NW CRW 40 NNW SDF
25 SSW MTO IRK 35 SSE HSI 35 ESE GLD 45 WSW IML 35 S RAP
35 WNW PIR 25 SE ATY 35 ESE MKT 15 SSW LNR 25 E RFD 50 SW SBN
15 WSW FWA 15 WNW FDY 40 NW CLE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE FHU 25 W SAD
SOW 50 SSW GNT 40 NNE GNT 10 NW 4SL 40 E DRO 20 SSE 4FC 30 SE FCL
10 SW BFF 45 WNW CDR 81V 15 NE SHR 50 SSE LVM 45 WSW MQM
55 ESE S80 50 E PUW 40 NE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW ADM 30 NW BVO
10 WSW COU 45 NE MKC 25 NW CNK 55 N GCK 30 E LVS 40 WSW ROW
45 WSW INK 20 ESE MAF 50 SW ADM.



...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY...
SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED E-W ACROSS CENTRAL IA THIS
MORNING...AND THEN WSWWD INTO SWRN NEB.  BROAD SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SLOW NWD MOVEMENT TO THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL LIKELY EXTEND ALONG/NEAR I-80 BY LATE IN THE DAY. 
STRONG SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
AGAIN SUPPORT STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...GIVEN THE 65-70F
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN PLACE.  THOUGH CAPPING WILL INHIBIT
CONVECTION FOR MOST OF THE DAY...CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY 20Z-22Z.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...AS SSWLY LLJ BECOMES BETTER FOCUSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM INVOF LEE
TROUGH INTO SWRN NEB/NWRN KS AS STRONG MIXING ERODES CAP.  INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH 40-50 KT OF SFC-6 KM
SHEAR...WITH A THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO A
SEVERE MCS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
AND ALONG NOSE OF ASSOCIATED LLJ...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BOW ECHO
SYSTEM SHIFTING EWD ACROSS IA.

...IL INTO NY/PA...
SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LESS FOCUSED ACROSS THIS REGION AS
COMPARED TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS BROAD WLY FLOW REGIME REMAINS
IN PLACE.  A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT MCS OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES EXTENDS FROM N-CENTRAL OH SWWD INTO SRN IND AND
THEN NWWD INTO E-CENTRAL IA THIS MORNING.  NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
THE AIR MASS HAS BEEN GREATLY OVER-TURNED...WHILE TO ITS SOUTH
STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE MID AFTERNOON.  WITH
STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE FRONT...WIDELY SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 20-30 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR REMAIN IN PLACE.  OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AS SWLY
H85 WINDS INCREASE LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY SUPPORT
A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE MORE DIFFUSE OVER PA AND SRN NY THIS
MORNING.  HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF 35-45 KT SFC-6 KM SHEAR AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP WITHIN
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD POSE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.

...ME...
12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE LAPSE RATES REMAIN MODERATELY STEEP OVER
THIS REGION...WHICH IS NOW SUPPORTING MODERATE INSTABILITY GIVEN
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. 
CONVECTION IS NOW INCREASING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN VT/NH
AND WRN ME ASSOCIATED WITH TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
STRENGTHENING INTO CENTRAL/NRN ME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN 35-
45 KT OF SFC-6 KM SHEAR IN PLACE...WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...ERN ND/NRN MN...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING SEWD INTO ALBERTA.  ASSOCIATED
INCREASE IN SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN LOW LEVEL WAA
PATTERN OVER THIS REGION...WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD ELEVATED
CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG...SUGGESTING STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL
NEAR SEVERE LEVELS.
 
..EVANS.. 07/05/03

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