ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 201635
SPC AC 201635

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2003

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW
TUL 20 NW OKC 45 W CSM AMA DHT 15 WNW EHA 10 SSW DDC ICT 15 WNW BVO
20 WSW TUL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW FHU SAD 35 SW
ABQ 45 SE TAD LHX AKO CYS CPR SHR 10 E LWT 40 ENE CTB ...CONT... 20
ESE INL 40 NNE BRD 10 SW MKT 20 NE FOD 25 ESE P35 25 W UNO FSM FSI
CDS INK 85 SSW GDP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W COT SAT 25 SSW
CLL 35 WNW BPT 25 SE BPT ...CONT... 25 S MOB 10 NNE CEW SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE PSM 55 W 3B1.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE HSV 25 N CSV
40 NE 5I3 15 W PSK 10 NW AVL 70 ESE CHA 15 NW RMG 40 ENE HSV.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE
INTO SRN KS AND NRN OK...

...TX PANHANDLE/SRN KS/NRN OK AREA... 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OCCURRING AS VORTICITY MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS ESEWD ACROSS MT
AND WY.  MODELS INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL PHASE WITH SRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES...RESULTING IN A N/S
ORIENTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ND INTO OK BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO OK/NRN TX FROM A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE OH VALLEY IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT EWD
WITH WEAK SLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS.  STRONGER
SLY WINDS DEVELOPING ABOVE THE SURFACE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY
TONIGHT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7.5 C/KM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
COUPLED WITH RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
DESTABILIZATION...WITH ELEVATED CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-1800 J/KG
FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO
PARTS OF SRN KS AND NRN OK.  

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE AS DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SRN BRANCH TROUGH AND
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET/INCREASING WARM ADVECTION PROVIDE LARGE
SCALE ASCENT ALONG WRN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN.  INITIAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN DEEPER WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY
HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS.  AS THE STORMS GRADUALLY DEVELOP EWD TONIGHT INTO PARTS
OF SRN KS AND NRN OK...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STORMS WILL
LIKELY BECOME ROOTED ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER WITH UPDRAFT SOURCE
LAYERS ABOVE THE 850 MB LEVEL. THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF STEEPER
LAPSE RATES WILL ENHANCE UPDRAFT STRENGTH WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS.  THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING EWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS INCREASING DIVERGENCE
ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET MAINTAIN
FOCUSED UPWARD MOTION ACROSS THE AREA.

..WEISS/BRIGHT.. 09/20/2003

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$