ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL ACUS01 KWNS 251626 SPC AC 251626 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1026 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2003 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY THIS PERIOD AS SPEED MAX NOW ENTERING THE N PACIFIC CST CONTINUES SE ACROSS THE GRT BASIN TO THE CNTRL RCKYS. FARTHER S... A WEAKER SRN STREAM JET WILL PERSIST FROM NRN BAJA CA ENE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS. SATELLITE DATA SHOW TWO IMPULSES WITHIN THIS STREAM... BOTH OF WHICH APPEAR TO BE QUITE WEAK. IN THE EAST...SATELLITE ALSO DEPICTS A WEAK VORT APPROACHING THE SW CST OF FL. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE E THROUGH THE PERIOD...ENHANCING UPLIFT/THUNDER ALONG TAIL END OF WEAKENING FRONT WELL OF THE ERN FL CST. ...N PAC CST... COOL...UNSTABLE...WEAKLY CYCLONIC ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER WRN WA AND NW ORE THIS PERIOD...ALONG AND N OF JET AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED MAX NOW APPROACHING THE CST. OROGRAPHIC ASCENT AND UPLIFT IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET MAX WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WA AND NRN ORE CASCADES/CSTL RANGES. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY YIELD A LITTLE THUNDER...BUT COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE/DURATION OF ANY SUCH ACTIVITY. ...S FL... WARM...APPARENTLY SUBSIDENT LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 500 MB...AND CONTINUED EWD MOTION OF WEAK IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE WRN FL CST... SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG DISSIPATING FRONT OVER THE SRN PART OF THE STATE LATER TODAY. ...SE TX... RECENT CHANGES IN STRATOCU FIELD OVER THE WRN GULF AS SEEN IN I.R. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS NOW BEGINNING IN EARNEST. BUT SATELLITE DERIVED PW FIELDS AND SURFACE DATA ALSO SHOW THAT LEADING EDGE OF TRUE TROPICAL AIR IS STILL VERY FAR TO THE S IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. IN THE MEANTIME...MUCH FASTER NEAR-SHORE MODIFICATION OF EXISTING CP AIR MASS THAN IS TYPICALLY OBSERVED WOULD HAVE TO OCCUR FOR ETA FORECAST SURFACE DEWPOINT FIELDS TO VERIFY OVER SE TX LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. COUPLED WITH WEAK NATURE OF SRN STREAM IMPULSES...ANY THUNDER THREAT OVER SE TX WILL BE MINIMAL. ..CORFIDI.. 11/25/2003 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED. $$ |