SPC Day 1 Thunderstorm Outlook Issued 20Z 20030409


ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 092006
SPC AC 092002

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 W FMY 30 WNW AGR 25 SE DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S TLH 10 SW MCN
40 WNW CHA 55 W LOZ 25 SW 5I3 30 E GSO 15 NNE ORF.

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER LOW / TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS
THE SERN CONUS.  AT THE SURFACE...ASSOCIATED LOW IS FORECAST TO
CONSOLIDATE WITH TIME OFF THE GA / SC COAST WHILE COLD FRONT IS
CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS AND EVENTUALLY EAST OF THE FL
PENINSULA.

...SRN GA / FL...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM SRN GA SWD ACROSS FL AHEAD OF
SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR AYS SSWWD INTO APALACHEE
BAY.  AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...WITH
MEAN-LAYER CAPE RANGING FROM LESS THAN 500 J/KG OVER SRN GA TO
AROUND 1200 ACROSS SRN FL...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ONGOING STORMS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  

LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE VEERED TO WLY ACROSS MOST OF FL...SO
CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS WEAK WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
STORM INTENSITY AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. 
NONETHELESS...GREATEST THREAT FOR MORE INTENSE CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY
EXISTS.  GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL STORMS
BEGIN TO DIMINISH / MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF EWD-MOVING
COLD FRONT.

..GOSS.. 04/09/03

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