ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL ACUS01 KWNS 092006 SPC AC 092002 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 092000Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W FMY 30 WNW AGR 25 SE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S TLH 10 SW MCN 40 WNW CHA 55 W LOZ 25 SW 5I3 30 E GSO 15 NNE ORF. ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER LOW / TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...ASSOCIATED LOW IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE WITH TIME OFF THE GA / SC COAST WHILE COLD FRONT IS CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS AND EVENTUALLY EAST OF THE FL PENINSULA. ...SRN GA / FL... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM SRN GA SWD ACROSS FL AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR AYS SSWWD INTO APALACHEE BAY. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...WITH MEAN-LAYER CAPE RANGING FROM LESS THAN 500 J/KG OVER SRN GA TO AROUND 1200 ACROSS SRN FL...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ONGOING STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE VEERED TO WLY ACROSS MOST OF FL...SO CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS WEAK WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. NONETHELESS...GREATEST THREAT FOR MORE INTENSE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY EXISTS. GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL STORMS BEGIN TO DIMINISH / MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. ..GOSS.. 04/09/03 NNNN |