ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL ACUS01 KWNS 022037 SPC AC 022036 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 022000Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE LHX LHX 15 WSW LIC 55 ESE CYS 25 S BFF 20 SSE AIA 40 NNE IML 55 NNW GCK 25 N EHA 35 SSE LHX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE ORF FAY 35 SSW AGS 40 E TOI 50 ESE MCB 30 WNW BTR 25 N LCH 45 NE HOU 45 WSW HDO P07 60 ESE LBB SPS 40 SSE MLC 35 N LIT 35 NNE DYR 30 WNW LOZ 20 N BKW 30 SW MRB 25 SSW MSV 10 SSW PSF ORH 30 S EWB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CRP LRD ...CONT... 35 SSW P07 30 S MAF 40 SSE LBB 15 SSW PVW 40 SW DHT 20 ESE LVS SAF 35 NW FCL 50 NE CAG 55 NW CAG 25 NW VEL 15 NNW PUC 20 ESE BCE 45 NW GCN 15 N IGM 30 W EED 20 NNW SAN ...CONT... 25 N 4BK 40 ESE OTH 45 WNW RDM 35 NE DLS 30 S EPH 55 NE EPH 30 NNW 63S ...CONT... 75 NE DVL 20 W FAR 20 NNE HON 20 SE FSD 20 WSW SPW 15 SW MKT 35 SW RST 35 SW ALO 40 NW IRK 45 SSE P35 15 NE COU 20 NW STL 25 E ALN 10 ESE IND 30 W CMH 20 ESE HLG 25 S AOO 10 N MSV 15 ESE LEB 15 WSW BHB. ...TN VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES INTO CENTRAL TX... THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER TN. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NRN GA WWD THROUGH NRN PORTIONS OF AL/MS INTO SWRN TN. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SRN OH SWWD INTO SRN AR TO NRN TX. A MOIST AIR MASS SOUTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES FROM TX INTO THE GULF COAST STATES HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH 100 MB MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000-3500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE TN VALLEY INTO THE GULF COAST STATES FAVORS MULTICELLS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR FURTHER WEST INTO TX IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... PLEASE REFER TO SPC WW 208...209...210 AND 211. ...SRN MID ATLANTIC... LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT HAS MOVED EWD THROUGH TN TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW WILL FAVOR A CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ...ERN PA/NJ INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND... THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING EWD THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO FAR ERN PA/NJ. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WITHIN MID/UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS MOST LIKELY SUPPRESSING UPDRAFT STRENGTH. MARGINAL INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE THREAT IN WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF ERN CO INTO SWRN NEB HAS KEPT THIS AIR MASS MOIST TODAY. MODERATELY STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS PRODUCING HAIL AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD INTO NEB/WRN KS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL WAA INCREASES WITH A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. ...NRN/CENTRAL CA VALLEYS... VIS IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER JUST INLAND OF THE CENTRAL CA COAST WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY. IF ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN CLOUDS CAN OCCUR EWD INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL CA VALLEYS...THEN SUFFICIENT MOIST LOW-LEVELS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S/ COMBINED WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AOB -20C WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...SRN OH SWWD INTO NWRN TN... CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH SRN OH AND KY/NRN TN. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THIS REGION. ..PETERS.. 05/02/03 NNNN |