ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 191924
SPC AC 191921

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 E BGS 55 NNW ABI 30 SE LTS 45 W OKC 35 SE P28 ICT EMP MKC COU
VIH UNO 20 NE FSM 35 ENE PRX 50 W TYR ACT JCT SJT 45 E BGS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW YNG PKB 5I3
HSS 30 SSE ATL MCN 25 SSW CHS ...CONT... 40 WSW HUM HEZ GWO TUP
MEM LIT SHV AUS DRT P07 ALM ONM 60 NW GUP 4BL 30 NW 4FC DEN
35 NE TCC 60 S LBL BIE OMA 20 WSW BRD 40 NNW ELO.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
FAIRLY STRONG PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PLAINS IS CONTRIBUTING TO STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST/CENTRAL TEXAS.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
HEATING THROUGH THE 80S AND 90S ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH MEAN
MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.  18Z SOUNDINGS FROM FORT
WORTH AND OKLAHOMA CITY...HOWEVER...STILL INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL
CAPPING...WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

THIS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SEVERE
THREAT...PARTICULARLY WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED/WEAK LOW-LEVEL FORCING
FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.  HOWEVER...STRONGLY DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW
REGIME IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SPREADING ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY.  THIS IS TO THE SOUTH OF UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN
MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES...WHICH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT
OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS FORCING
APPEARS LIKELY TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
THE 19/21Z TO 20/00Z TIME FRAME ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WHERE
MID-LEVEL FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BREAK CAP.  LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE WEAK
...BUT SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL FLOW EXISTS TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BEFORE
LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EVOLVES.  AS MID-LEVEL CAP WEAKENS/BREAKS
IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO
PROPAGATE ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST/CENTRAL
TEXAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

...EASTERN GULF STATES...
SCATTERED INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING IN MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.  OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PROVIDED FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...WHILE DAYTIME HEATING/SEA BREEZES ARE
PROVIDING FORCING/FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. 
MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...WITH ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS...PERHAPS SOME
HAIL...IN ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
 
..KERR.. 05/19/03

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