ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 092009
SPC AC 092006

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS ERN SD AND NERN NEB INTO SWRN MN AND NWRN IA...TO
THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DSM 55 E OMA 30 NW OMA 45 N GRI 35 NNW BUB
40 NE VTN 25 E PIR 45 NW HON 45 NE BKX 25 NNW FRM 20 NW MCW 45 ESE
FOD DSM.

SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS
TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW MRF 40 NE ALM 35 NE LVS 35 NNW
GCK 20 W LBF 35 E RAP 25 W Y22 50 WNW BIS 45 NE BIS 20 NNW AXN 30
NE MSP 20 S VOK 35 E MLI 15 SW BLV 20 SSW TBN 15 ESE CNU 30 S END
50 S CDS 35 NE BGS 35 ESE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW BVE 25 N ESF
40 SW PGO 20 S FSI 55 WNW ABI 45 NW DRT ...CONT... 20 SW DUG
65 ESE PHX 35 ESE PGA 35 N BCE 25 NW MLF 55 S ELY 55 NW DRA
40 WSW DRA 25 NNE NID 55 S BIH 40 NNE FAT 40 NE SCK 35 NW TVL NFL
20 SSW BAM 25 ESE BAM 30 WSW TWF 15 SSW SUN 75 SW 27U 40 S LWS EPH
50 NW 4OM ...CONT... 25 NNE CTB 25 N LWT 60 NNW MLS 55 N ISN
...CONT... 50 E MQT 30 W MBL 35 N CGX CMI 35 ENE PAH 25 S MKL
20 NE CBM 20 W TOI 40 NNW AYS 30 E FLO 30 SE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE NEL 25 NW ABE
20 SW IPT 25 SE DUJ 35 SSE FKL 25 NE YNG 25 ENE ERI ...CONT...
15 NE CAR PSM 15 E JFK.


...SERN SD/NERN NEB/SWRN MN/NWRN IA...
THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PARAMETERS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS 
ACROSS ERN SD INTO NRN NEB AS SURFACE LOW...NOW ON THE WRN SD/NEB
BORDER...DEVELOPS EWD ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. ALL SHORT-TERM
MODEL DATA APPEAR IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT VERY STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION THROUGH 00
UTC...AND THEN SPREAD EWD ACROSS SWRN MN AND NRN IA THROUGH TONIGHT
AS DIGGING UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD FROM ERN MT/WRN ND.

BY 00 UTC...EXPECT SURFACE LOW TO BE NEAR PIR WITH WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EWD TO NRN IA. ETAKF FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AIRMASS
NEAR THE LOW...AND ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...SHOULD BE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED WITH 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE.
FORCING NEAR THE LOW AND FRONT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE
CAP AND RESULT IN INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH THE EVENING. TURNING OF LOW LEVEL 20-35KT FLOW FROM SELY TO
SWLY IN THE UPDRAFT SOURCE LAYER WILL RESULT IN STRONGLY CURVED LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS PRODUCING 0-3KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 FOR A
GENERAL EWD STORM MOTION ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE MDT RISK
AREA. WHILE LCL/LFC HEIGHT INITIALLY APPEARS QUITE HIGH DUE TO
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DEEPER
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INVOF SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT SHOULD RESULT
IN LOCALLY LOWER LFC AND ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL..IN ADDITION TO
LARGE HAIL.

STORMS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE AFTER DARK INTO FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS
SUSTAINED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
DESTABILIZATION ON THE NOSE OF 50-60KT LLJ FROM MO RIVER VALLEY EWD
ACROSS IA AND INTO SRN MN. DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG COLD POOL AND 
ALIGNMENT OF WLY MID LEVEL JET AXIS TO THE COLD POOL COULD PROMOTE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL
MOVING EWD ACROSS IA AND TOWARD THE MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

...KS/OK TO ERN NM/WEST TX...
RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S F/ AND INTENSE SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY FROM CNTRL KS SSWWD TO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. HOWEVER...CAPPING REMAINS FORMIDABLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THIS AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST
TX AND ERN NM WHERE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS HAVE NOW DEVELOPED. GIVEN
GENERALLY WEAK MID LEVEL WLY STEERING FLOW...EXPECT MULTICELLULAR
STORMS NOW INITIATING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD
INTO GREATER DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY. ADDITIONAL ISOLD ACTIVITY...
POSSIBLY SUPERCELLULAR...MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WRN KS INTO WRN OK AS
POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING WORK TO OVERCOME THE CAP IN THESE
AREAS. ALL OF THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY POSE A THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS INTO THE EVENING BUT WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER TONIGHT.

..CARBIN.. 06/09/03

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