ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 261955
SPC AC 261955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2003

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S
FWA 40 SSE SBN 40 N FWA 45 E TOL 15 WSW YNG 15 NW PIT 15 SW HLG 15 E
ZZV CMH 30 NNE DAY 15 S FWA

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE
CZZ 40 W TRM 35 SSW DAG DAG 40 NE DAG 45 SSE LAS 10 NNE IGM 30 N FLG
15 SW INW 55 NNE PHX 30 W PHX 50 SE YUM

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE
ORF 40 SSE SPI 35 WNW EMP 15 SSW BIE 20 NE DBQ 15 ENE MKE 55 SE OSC
...CONT... 10 W MSS 20 WSW BDR

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAN 30 S RAL
PRB 35 NNE UKI MFR RDM PDT 75 ENE 63S ...CONT... 60 N DVL JMS PIR
RAP 81V 70 WNW MLS LWT 30 SSW 27U 35 WNW PIH 10 S OGD 10 NNE PUC 35
SSW CAG 45 SSW DGW BBW EAU CWA 40 SSW ESC 25 N PLN

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E CAR 3B1 20 S AUG
...CONT... 30 NE ECG 5I3 15 WNW EVV DYR HSV 70 NW AHN 25 SSE SAV

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E CAR 3B1 20 S AUG

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME NERN IN AND
NRN/CNTRL OH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR MO VLY INTO THE
MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE DESERT SW...

...LWR MO VLY EWD INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...
KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TSTM
CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ESEWD ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF MODEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME THROUGH TONIGHT.  A COUPLE AREAS OF INTEREST
EXISTS AT MID AFTERNOON...ONE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THE
OTHER UPSTREAM OVER THE MIDWEST.

LEWP/BOW ECHO...MOVING AT 50-55 KTS...HAS BECOME VERY WELL-DEFINED
ACROSS SCNTRL PA AND WRN MD AND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD
INTO DELMARVA THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS HAS
RECOVERED WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 70S AND RELATIVELY STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7 C/KM.  GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL WNWLY FLOW
REGIME...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A THREAT ALL THE WAY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST... ESPECIALLY NEAR/NORTH OF THE DCA/BWI REGION.

UPSTREAM...VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW-AMPLITUDE MIDLEVEL IMPULSE
APPROACHING IA AND VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK MCV MOVING THROUGH THE
CHICAGO AREA.  THE MCV HAS ALREADY ENHANCED A CLUSTER OF TSTMS
MOVING INTO NRN IND AND ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NRN/ECNTRL IL LATER THIS EVENING.  KLOT VWP SHOWS 50-55 KT
FLOW BETWEEN 3-4 KM AND GIVEN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THESE TSTMS TO EVOLVE INTO LEWPS/BOWS AS THEY
TRANSLATE SEWD INTO NERN IND/NRN-CNTRL OH/UPPER OH VLY/CNTRL
APPALACHIANS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS. 
SIGNIFICANT WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED NEAR KSBN ALREADY THIS
AFTERNOON.  GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLY
SHEARED AIR MASS...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVING VERY
LARGE HAIL AS WELL.  ISOLD TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS NERN
IND INTO CNTRL OH WHERE THE LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW VEERS AND INCREASES
RAPIDLY IN SPEED...RESULTING IN ENHANCED SRH ALONG PREVIOUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.

FARTHER WEST...TSTMS HAVE FORMED WITHIN DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
AND ALONG A WEAK CONFLUENT ZONE FROM NRN KS/SRN NEB INTO NRN MO/SRN
IA.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAKER HERE THAN FARTHER EAST... BUT DCAPE
IS SUBSTANTIAL GIVEN 35-40 DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.
THUS...ANY TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF A DAMAGING WIND GUST.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO UPSTATE NY...
COLD FRONT HAS YET TO CLEAR SWRN ONTARIO AND WITH SUCH STRONG
DYNAMICS AT HAND...TSTMS ARE STILL A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO UPSTATE NY...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING WHEN
WARM ADVECTION REGIME STRENGTHENS.  THESE TSTMS MAY POSE A DAMAGING
WIND OR HAIL THREAT...ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE
SHOULD EXIST IN A CORRIDOR SOUTH OF THE REGION.

...PARTS OF SRN PLAINS...
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS STEEPEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE AXIS FROM CNTRL TX
NEWD INTO ERN OK...ERN KS AND NRN MO.  TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN OK AND AR AND ALONG A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL/NCNTRL TX. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS
ANTICIPATED...BUT ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN HIGH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.

...SWRN DESERTS...
MOISTURE FROM IGNACIO HAS ENHANCED THE MSTR PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE
DESERT SW WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG.  LATEST VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS
A MCV ROTATING NWWD NEAR ROCKY POINT MX AND WILL LIKELY ENHANCE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WRN AZ AND SRN CA
THROUGH THE EVENING.  GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...TSTMS WILL
HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS... PARTICULARLY
NORTH/WEST OF THE MCV TRACK IN THE LWR CO RVR VLY INTO SRN CA. 
OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A PARTICULAR THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

..RACY.. 08/26/2003

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$