ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL ACUS01 KWNS 201943 SPC AC 201943 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2003 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W CDS 30 SSE CVS 60 SW TCC 10 ENE LVS 35 N CAO DDC ICT 15 NW BVO 25 WSW TUL 20 E CSM 40 W CDS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW FHU SAD GNT 60 NNW LVS LHX IML CDR GCC 10 NW SHR 10 E LWT 40 ENE CTB ...CONT... 20 ESE INL 40 NNE BRD 10 SW MKT 20 NE FOD DSM HRO FSM 35 NNE ADM 30 WNW SPS INK 60 WNW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE DRT 10 NW SAT CLL 25 WSW POE 40 W HUM ...CONT... 20 SSW MOB 45 NNW PNS 25 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE PSM 55 W 3B1. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF NERN NM/OK AND TX PANHANDLES EWD INTO SRN KS/NRN OK... ...SYNOPSIS... AT 19Z...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL SD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SSWWD FROM THE LOW INTO ERN CO/ERN NM. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES DURING THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER OH/IND WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SWWD INTO CENTRAL TX. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WAS EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE DATA ABOUT 150 NM ESE BRO...ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. ...NERN NM/TX PANHANDLE/SRN KS/NRN OK AREA... ALTHOUGH SURFACE RIDGING AND THE WEAK WAVE IN THE GULF ARE RESULTING IN NELY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS SRN TX...VAD WIND AND PROFILER PLOTS SHOW 25-35 KT SLY WINDS ARE RESULTING IN THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE 700-850 MB LAYER ACROSS ERN NM TX/OK PANHANDLE AREAS. GIVEN 500-700 MB LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7.5 C/KM AND MID LEVEL MOISTENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM ERN NM NEWD INTO EXTREME SWRN KS. MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND 25 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS WITH BRIEFLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NM AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLE. STORMS...HOWEVER...ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY TONIGHT ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND WRN OK AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ALSO THE LIFT SHOULD BE ACCENTUATED BY STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 LAYER...MUCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT HAIL. THE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD EWD INTO SRN KS/NRN OK OVERNIGHT AS THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT/VEERING LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EWD. ..IMY.. 09/20/2003 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED. $$ |