ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 082114
SPC AC 082114

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0414 PM CDT WED OCT 08 2003

VALID 082000Z - 091200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PNS 20 W AUO 25
ENE CHA 30 S PSK 20 NE ECG ...CONT... 55 SSE FMY 30 ESE FMY 30 WNW
AGR 50 W ORL 50 SSE CTY ...CONT... 30 NNW ANJ 25 SSE MQT 10 SE IWD
35 S RST 50 ENE COU 15 S UMN 25 W TXK 15 SSE BPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E BLI 20 SE SEA
AST.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 40 WSW SOW
10 N SAF 25 NNW LAA 30 S AKO 40 NW COS 25 N EGE 40 SSW RWL 50 S CPR
20 E AIA 25 SE PIR 30 WNW JMS 60 N DVL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM GRAPHIC

...CNTRL/ERN NEB THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...


PRE-FRONTAL/LEE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CNTRL ND SSWWD THROUGH ERN CO.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. E OF LEE TROUGH... MOISTURE IS
ADVECTING NWD UNDERNEATH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH SURFACE HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES FROM 1500 TO 2000
J/KG FROM ERN NEB THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN. 
HOWEVER...VERY WARM AIR IN THE 1-2 KM LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER HAS SPREAD EWD...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THE MOIST
AXIS. GIVEN STRENGTH OF CAP...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEE TROUGH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE
SURFACE BASED STORMS. HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING IS PROMOTING DEEP
MIXING ALONG AND W OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO MIX
THROUGH THE INVERSION WHERE TEMPERATURES CAN REACH THE UPPER 80S.
THIS SUGGESTS IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO INITIATE ISOLATED HIGH BASED
STORMS WHERE THERMAL RIDGE INTERSECTS THE BOUNDARY FROM SWRN/CNTRL
NEB NEWD THROUGH ERN DAKOTAS. STILL...ACTIVITY MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME DEVELOPING EWD INTO THE MOIST AXIS GIVEN THE STRONG CAP. HAVE
INTRODUCED CONDITIONAL LOW PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND FOR PORTIONS OF NEB AND THE ERN DAKOTAS.
HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF CAP SUGGESTS ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AT BEST AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING.

..DIAL.. 10/08/2003

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$