ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 251942
SPC AC 251942

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2003

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW
LRD TPL 30 SE PRX 50 SSE HRO 20 SSE POF 15 NNW HOP 20 ENE BNA 10 ENE
HSV 45 N MEI 50 SE MCB 20 WSW BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW BUF 15 NE SYR
35 WNW AVP 20 N MGW 50 NW HSS 20 WSW GSP 40 SSW AHN 20 SE TOI PFN
...CONT... 30 SSE DRT 50 ESE BWD 15 SSE DUA 25 SE CNU 40 S UIN 10 SE
SBN 15 ENE DTW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE DUG 40 W TCS
25 ENE TCS 45 ESE ELP 50 W MRF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AND ERN TX
INTO THE LWR MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN OVER THE U.S. IS DOMINATED BY LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM ONTARIO SWWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NRN MEXICO. 
MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC OFF THE NRN CA COAST.  ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
IS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM N CENTRAL OH SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL
AR TO A LOW OVER NERN TX...THEN CONTINUES SWD AND WWD ACROSS S
CENTRAL TX.

...SRN AND ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY NOW COVERS MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS ERN TX.  STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OK/TX COMBINED WITH MODERATE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS PROVIDING PLENTY OF UPWARD ASCENT ACROSS THE
REGION.  MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT AIR MASS IS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS THROUGH THIS EVENING
 EXTENDING FROM MIDDLE TN SWWD ALONG THE TX GULF COAST BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

CURRENT CLUSTER OF ACTIVITY OVER ERN TX INTO LA/AR WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NWD/NEWD AS SECONDARY LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE FRONT.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY HAVE EMBEDDED
BOW SEGMENTS WITHIN PRODUCING SOME DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE OVER EXTREME S TX...AND AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AREA WHERE CAPE IS JUST A BIT HIGHER
/NEAR 3000 J/KG/ LARGER HAIL COULD BE THE THREAT.

..MCCARTHY.. 10/25/2003

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$