ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 311953
SPC AC 311953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CST FRI OCT 31 2003

VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E HRO 15 SSW FYV
30 E OKC 25 NNE AMA 20 SW EHA 20 N DDC 40 W EMP 50 SSE OJC 20 S TBN
30 E HRO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S UKI 50 SW SVE 25
NW LOL 65 ENE U31 20 NE DRA 65 NNE DAG 25 WSW DAG 20 SW RAL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CA/NV...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY WITH ATTENDANT VORTICITY LOBE /NEAR 37N 125W/
ROTATING AROUND THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE. SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR LIMITED INSOLATION TODAY BENEATH THE
COLD MID-LEVEL LOW...RESULTING IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE INVOF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER /
NOW OBSERVED BETWEEN SAC/AUN/OVE / MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FARTHER S...CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM SW OF FAT SWWD TO
OFF THE COAST W OF VBG. SOME LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED VORTICITY LOBE MOVING ONSHORE.

...SRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR DATA SHOW A BAND
OF SHALLOW CONVECTION TRYING TO ORGANIZE FROM CNTRL IL SWWD ALONG
FRONT INTO NWRN AR. ALTHOUGH MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS /I.E.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK
DESTABILIZATION...RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /OBSERVED
ON REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS/ ARE EFFECTIVELY LIMITING THE DEPTH OF THE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.

IT APPEARS THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TONIGHT
AS LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES OVER FRONTAL ZONE ALONG
LLJ AXIS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TX PNHDL/NRN OK/SRN KS EWD INTO CNTRL
AND SRN MO.

..MEAD.. 10/31/2003

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$