ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 041957
SPC AC 041957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE
0157 PM CST THU DEC 04 2003

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W MIA 40 SSE AGR
20 W ORL 55 SSE CTY ...CONT... 15 S PFN 20 WNW MGR 30 E AGS 10 SSE
FAY 40 SE ECG.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WAS OCCURRING ALONG DEVELOPING COASTAL FRONT
OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND BERMUDA IS PROVIDING MOIST, EASTERLY, LOW LEVEL FLOW
INTO FLORIDA EAST COAST.

...SOUTHEAST...
FRONTAL ZONE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE
ACROSS SERN GA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW INTO THE
LOWER 60S NEAR THE GA COAST. COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR SEA/GULF BREEZE
BOUNDARIES COULD RESULT IN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/FORCING SUGGEST
ANY ACTIVITY WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.

LATER TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT OFF THE NC COAST. STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROCESS COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
FEW TSTMS... EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER RAIN AREA...NEAR THE COAST.

...FLORIDA...
STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND BROAD CONFLUENCE ZONE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
 WAS EVIDENT IN LATEST OBS AND SATELLITE DATA. MODEL FORECASTS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF FL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND PRESENCE
OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT...A COUPLE OF WEAK TSTMS
COULD STILL DEVELOP EITHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS 
NWRN SECTIONS...OR ALONG EAST COAST SEABREEZE.

..AFWA.. 12/04/2003

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$