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    Day 2 Outlook >
Mar 29, 2017 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Mar 29 20:00:57 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170329 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170329 2000Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 292000

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0300 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

   Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
   MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS OZARKS...

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
   TEXAS NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST TEXAS AND
   LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
   SLIGHT RISK...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight from
   parts of east Texas, eastern Oklahoma, and southeast Kansas into the
   lower and middle Mississippi Valley. Large hail, tornadoes, and
   damaging winds will be possible especially later this afternoon and
   tonight.

   ...discussion...
   The biggest substantial changes have been dictated in part to
   upper-air raob data from LZK (19z raob) and short-term model trends
   (time-lagged HRRR model).  Have confined the 10-percent tornado to
   the Ozarks and in a corridor from the lower Sabine Valley
   northeastward into northeastern LA and far west-central MS.  Have
   removed the significant tornado delineation based on instability
   concerns and prior convective overturning earlier today and recent
   surface analysis displaying a slower-than-expected recovery.

   ..Smith.. 03/29/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/

   ...Ozarks/lower MO Valley to ArkLaTex/lower MS River Valley...
   The closed upper trough currently over the south-central Plains at
   late morning will continue a slow-general-northeastward advance
   toward the lower MO River Valley through late tonight and early
   Thursday. Ahead of this system, 12Z regional observed soundings
   reflected considerable lapse-rate-related impacts from the
   overnight/early morning squall line that continues to move generally
   east-northeastward and decay across the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex
   vicinity. This may have ramifications on the
   extensiveness/likelihood of significant hail potential, for
   instance, although the air mass will recover/gradually moisten and
   destabilize to the south of a northward-moving warm front across the
   Ozarks/lower MO Valley, and ahead (east) of a slow-eastward-moving
   cold front.

   Latest thinking is that surface-based storms will develop as early
   as mid-afternoon near the eastern KS surface low southward along the
   front, including far eastern portions of KS/OK into western portions
   of MO/AR. Moderate low-level hodograph curvature (beneath strong but
   somewhat backed mid-level southwesterly winds) and resultant strong
   low-level shear/SRH will support a tornado risk aside from large
   hail and evolving damaging wind risk into this evening.

   Farther south, storms may diurnally be a bit more isolated across
   the remainder of the ArkLaTex vicinity, although an ongoing
   quasi-linear cluster across near-coastal southeast TX may persist
   east-northeastward into LA as it favors a zone of outflow-related
   weak boundary/zone of differential heating. This cluster and other
   peripheral development may pose a damaging wind/tornado risk through
   the afternoon and evening hours.

   Later tonight, storms should increase in coverage/intensity
   initially across portions of AR/LA as forcing for ascent/DPVA
   increases related to an east/northeastward-ejecting vorticity maxima
   within the base of the larger-scale trough. Related mass response
   should result in increasingly strong low-level winds/confluence. A
   mixed mode of storms should be prevalent, with hail initially
   possible prior to a more common damaging wind/embedded tornado risk
   as storms toward/across the MS River late tonight.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
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Page last modified: March 29, 2017
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