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    Day 2 Outlook >
May 24, 2017 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed May 24 06:04:11 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170524 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170524 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 240604

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0104 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE
   PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
   SLIGHT RISK AREA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms will be possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across
   a large portion of the Southeast. More isolated severe storms will
   be possible as far north as the mid-Ohio Valley.

   ...Synopsis...
   As an upper trough crossing southwest Canada and the Pacific
   Northwest digs southeast across the northern Intermountain region
   with time, a second/mobile trough will across the eastern U.S.
   through the period.  A short-wave trough -- embedded within cyclonic
   westerly flow around the base of the broader eastern trough -- will
   rotate across the Southeast and mid-South region through the
   afternoon and evening.

   As the aforementioned short-wave trough advances, surface
   cyclogenesis is expected over the eastern Tennessee/eastern Kentucky
   vicinity during the day, and then shifting north into southwest Ohio
   overnight.  As this occurs, a trailing cold front will sweep across
   the central Gulf Coast region early and into Georgia and eventually
   the Carolinas through the afternoon and evening, while a warm front
   lifts north to the North Carolina/Virginia border and lingers there
   through the evening.  These fronts -- and the evolving warm sector
   -- will support multiple episodes of widespread showers and
   thunderstorms through much of the period.

   ...The Southeast...
   A complex scenario appears to be evolving for today, as widespread
   cloudiness and ongoing convection casts considerable uncertainty. 
   As short-wave troughing rotates eastward/northeastward across the
   area, southerly/southeasterly flow will become established across
   much of the warm sector east and southeast of the developing surface
   low.  Strength of ascent spread across the area suggests that
   multiple rounds of widespread showers and storms will move across
   the area through the period, with at least modest diurnal
   destabilization allowing a general increase in convective
   coverage/intensity through the afternoon.  Storms are expected to
   increase across Florida and southern Georgia from early in the
   period through the afternoon, with locally damaging winds likely to
   be the primary given moderately strong, deep-layer southwesterly
   flow.

   Farther north, storms are expected to begin increasing in coverage
   across central and northern Georgia and into the Carolinas by
   midday/early afternoon, with storm mode likely to be a combination
   of cells and broken bands.  Multiple rounds of convection are
   expected, with any lack of instability somewhat offset by amply
   strong/weakly veering flow with height.  Along with risk for locally
   damaging winds and marginal hail, isolated tornadoes will also be
   possible.  Greatest risk will likely exist over the western
   Carolinas where low-level flow may be most backed in response to the
   mid-South cyclogenesis, and north of a weak/secondary warm front
   hinted at by the NAM.  Tornado risk may extend as far north as the
   main warm front progged to lie over northern North Carolina/southern
   Virginia by mid to late afternoon.

   Storms/severe risk will likely continue into the evening, gradually
   tapering off from southwest to northeast as the cold front advances
   across the Southeast.  Risk may linger longest over North Carolina
   and southern Virginia, and possibly across portions of central and
   southern Florida before decreasing into the overnight hours.

   ...The mid-South and mid-Ohio Valley...
   While questions exist regarding degree of destabilization across
   this region, backed low-level flow near and northeast of the
   developing surface low expected to shift north across the area
   through the day will support favorable veering of the lower
   tropospheric wind field with height.  If ample destabilization can
   occur, risk for a few stronger storms -- capable of producing
   damaging winds along with a tornado or two -- would likely evolve. 
   Greatest potential for ample CAPE to evolve along with somewhat
   stronger deep-layer flow seems to exist across eastern TN/eastern KY
   and eastward across the mountains, but will introduce
   low-probability risk farther north (into parts of OH/IN) and west
   (into central KY and middle TN) given latest model trends.

   ..Goss.. 05/24/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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