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    Day 2 Outlook >
May 28, 2016 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat May 28 19:59:56 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160528 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160528 2000Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 281959

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0259 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

   VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF SCNTRL AND
   SWRN TX...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY AREA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN THROUGH NCNTRL TX...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE MIDDLE
   THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF IND...NWRN OH
   AND SRN LOWER MI...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE COASTAL
   CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING OVER A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.  A
   THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
   OVER PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A MARGINAL
   THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED BRIEF
   TORNADO WILL EXIST TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ALONG A PORTION OF THE
   SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST.

   ...DISCUSSION...

   HAVE INTRODUCED LOW TORNADO PROBABILITIES OVER SCNTRL TX.
   THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING IN THIS AREA. REF SWOMCD 770
   FOR MORE INFORMATION. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED LOW WIND PROBABILITIES
   OVER A PORTION OF NRN IND...NWRN OH AND SRN MI. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR
   ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST.

   ..DIAL.. 05/28/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   NEB/IA SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES
   SLOWLY ENEWD...REACHING SW WI EARLY SUN. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK
   SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL
   PLNS...DOWNSTREAM FROM SRN STREAM LOW APPROACHING THE SRN CA CST.
   OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WITH RIDGE REMAINING QSTNRY OFF THE
   MID-ATLANTIC CST...TD #2 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NWWD...POSSIBLY
   DECELERATING WITH TIME PER NHC.

   FEATURES WILL REMAIN WEAK AT LWR LVLS. A WEAK LOW WILL TRACK NE
   ACROSS NW IA ATTENDANT TO NEB-IA UPR VORT. THE LOW SHOULD TURN MORE
   ENEWD ALONG STALLED FRONT OVER SRN MN/CNTRL WI TNGT. ACROSS THE SRN
   PLNS...RELAXATION OF LOW-LVL DRYING/COOLING IN WAKE OF NEB-IA
   SYSTEM...AND STRENGTHENING OF LEE TROUGH DOWNSTREAM FROM E PAC
   LOW...WILL BACK LOW-LVL FLOW TO SELY...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO RETURN
   NWWD ACROSS SW AND WRN TX.

   ...MID/UPR MS VLY TODAY...
   POCKETS OF MODERATE WARM SECTOR HEATING WILL OCCUR TODAY OVER
   NRN/ERN IA AND ADJACENT NW IL/SW WI AND FAR SRN MN...S OF STALLED
   FRONT IN MN/WI...AND W OF RESIDUAL TSTM DEBRIS IN IL. SATELLITE
   SUGGESTS THAT ASCENT WITH WRN IA VORT LOBE WILL OVERSPREAD NRN AND
   ERN IA FOLLOWING MAX HEATING...WITH ASSOCIATED 500 MB TEMPS AOB
   MINUS 14C CONTRIBUTING TO AREAL DESTABILIZATION. ALTHOUGH GRADUAL
   WEAKENING OF UPR SYSTEM WILL KEEP MEAN FLOW COMPARATIVELY MODEST
   RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS...RESIDUAL BAND OF 40+ KT SWLY 700-500 MB
   FLOW ON E SIDE OF VORT LOBE WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP SHEAR FOR SHORT
   LINES OF SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND.
   AND...ALTHOUGH WIND PROFILES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXHIBIT VERTICAL
   VEER-BACK PATTERNS...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F AND
   ENHANCED LOW-LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NEAR STALLED FRONT...CANNOT RULE
   OUT THE RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR FAVORABLE
   STORM-BOUNDARY INTERACTION. THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
   SUNSET.

   ...S CNTRL/SW TX TO SW KS/WRN OK THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...
   STRONG SFC HEATING AND INFLOW OF RICH MOISTURE RETURNING NWWD ACROSS
   THE BIG BEND REGION AND HILL COUNTRY WILL YIELD CONSIDERABLE
   SFC-BASED CAPE /VALUES AOA 4000 J PER KG/ ACROSS S CNTRL TX THIS
   AFTN. ALTHOUGH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL...SATELLITE
   SUGGESTS PRESENCE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES EMANATING NRN CHIHUAHUA
   THAT...COUPLED WITH TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS AND/OR LOCALIZED ASCENT
   ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAY'S MCS...COULD BOOST
   PARCELS TO THEIR LFCS. GIVEN STRENGTH OF BUOYANCY...IF EML CAP IS
   INDEED BREACHED...25-30 KT WLY MID-LVL FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   HP-TYPE SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG
   WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. THESE MAY MERGE INTO A SLOWLY-MOVING
   CLUSTER OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TNGT.

   FARTHER N...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLD STORM OR
   TWO WITH LARGE HAIL FORMING IN NOCTURNALLY-STRENGTHENED WAA/MOISTURE
   TRANSPORT ZONE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND ADJACENT PARTS OF OK/SW
   KS EARLY SUN. THE COVERAGE OF ANY SUCH ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...APPEARS
   TOO LOW TO WARRANT ADDITION OF PROBABILITIES ATTM.

   ...CSTL CAROLINAS/TD 2 TNGT/EARLY SUN...
   TD 2 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY NWWD THROUGH THE PERIOD
   ...GIVEN STRENGTH/ORIENTATION OF RIDGE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC CST. 
   SATELLITE/LIGHTNING DATA AND COMPARATIVELY COOL MID-LVL TEMPS
   SUGGEST THAT AN ENVELOPE OF SUFFICIENTLY BUOYANT AIR WILL REMAIN
   PRESENT ON THE NWRN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
   SEMI-DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH SYSTEM NOT EXPECTED TO
   APPRECIABLY DEEPEN /PER NHC/...HODOGRAPHS LIKELY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
   SMALL. NEVERTHELESS...PRESENCE OF ENHANCED LOW-LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
   INVOF DISCRETE CELLS SUGGESTS A NON-ZERO BRIEF TORNADO RISK ALONG
   PARTS OF THE SC AND SRN NC CSTS LATE TNGT AND EARLY SUN.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
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Page last modified: May 28, 2016
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