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    Day 2 Outlook >
Nov 23, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 23 16:29:32 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20141123 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141123 1630Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 231629

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1029 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

   VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE NE
   GULF COAST TO THE ERN CAROLINAS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL AL TO PARTS OF THE
   CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
   TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST
   STATES. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST
   THROUGH PARTS OF GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO TONIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LA THIS MORNING WILL EJECT RAPIDLY NEWD
   TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY TONIGHT...AS AN UPSTREAM JET STREAK
   OVER NM TRANSLATES EWD TO THE MID SOUTH.  A SURFACE CYCLONE
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE NM JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM THE KS/OK
   BORDER TO MO TODAY...AND THEN NEWD TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
   BY EARLY MONDAY...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EWD FROM THE WRN
   PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY.

   ...NE GULF COAST AREA TODAY...
   IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A MARITIME TROPICAL
   AIR MASS IS SPREADING NWD TO NEAR THE NE GULF COAST.  SURFACE-BASED
   BUOYANCY WILL SPREAD INLAND WITH THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ZONE OF ASCENT WITH THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL
   SPREAD AWAY FROM THE NE GULF COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THROUGH ABOUT
   21-00Z...THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW
   ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REMNANT COLD
   POOL FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW/N CENTRAL GULF OF
   MEXICO...AND IN THE WAA REGIME ACROSS SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE/SW GA. 
   OBSERVED HODOGRAPHS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR HAVE TRENDED TO MORE
   UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITH MIDLEVEL FLOW AOA 50 KT...WHICH SUPPORTS
   THE RISK FOR A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO THIS
   AFTERNOON.

   ...SE GA TO THE ERN CAROLINAS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
   A COOL CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY ERODE ACROSS GA/CAROLINAS
   TODAY AND BE REPLACED BY A MODIFYING SW ATLANTIC AIR MASS LATE TODAY
   INTO TONIGHT.  THIS WARMING/MOISTENING WILL OCCUR WITHIN A STRONG
   WAA REGIME WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...SUCH THAT ROTATING STORMS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY DEVELOPS
   INLAND.  THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A
   TORNADO WILL BE TONIGHT ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS...LIKELY WITH
   STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN ONE OR MORE CONFLUENCE BANDS EMANATING FROM
   THE GULF STREAM.

   ..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 11/23/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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Page last modified: November 23, 2014
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