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    Day 2 Outlook >
May 3, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 3 05:52:18 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160503 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160503 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 030552

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1252 AM CDT TUE MAY 03 2016

   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT INTO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC
   COASTAL PLAIN...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
   SOUTHEAST STATES...INCLUDING THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAKENING OF THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE
   MONTANA/ALBERTA BORDER DURING THIS PERIOD.  BUT UPPER RIDGING IS
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROMINENT ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH
   AMERICA...WITHIN THE SPLIT BELTS OF WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE
   MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC.  DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE...A STRONG SHORT
   WAVE TROUGH /NOW DIGGING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY/ IS FORECAST
   TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST BY 12Z
   WEDNESDAY.  AS THIS OCCURS...INCREASED PHASING WITH TROUGHING NOW
   DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY APPEARS
   PROBABLE...ALONG WITH FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF LARGER-SCALE
   TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S./GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA PENINSULA
   AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.  

   IN LOWER LEVELS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE FURTHER
   SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS...THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION...AND
   GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE SOUTH
   ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF COAST...WHILE STALLING AND WEAKENING OVER
   THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  SEASONABLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
   CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR
   STRONGEST STORMS WILL EXIST TODAY.  HOWEVER...FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
   STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING WITH THE IMPULSE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER
   MIDWEST MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 
   SOMEWHAT SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITH A LESS VIGOROUS IMPULSE DIGGING
   THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AT PEAK HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE
   TO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

   SOME MOISTENING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO PARTS OF THE
   NORTHERN ROCKIES...TO THE WEST OF THE WEAKENING RIDGING...AND AHEAD
   OF UPPER TROUGHING APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
   THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS MAY BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO WHERE
   DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING LOCALLY ENHANCE
   DESTABILIZATION AND LIFT.

   ...EASTERN GULF STATES/SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
   WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...CHARACTERIZED BY
   CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON...BENEATH CYCLONIC
   MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY...PARTICULARLY FROM THE SAVANNAH VALLEY
   NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.  IN THE WAKE
   OF CONVECTION WHICH MAY STILL BE SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   COASTAL PLAIN EARLY TODAY...NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SEEMS MOST
   LIKELY TO INITIATE NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST OF CHARLOTTE NC. 
   THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A ZONE OF
   ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...DOWNSTREAM OF A WESTERLY 50-60+
   KT 500 MB JET STREAK FORECAST TO NOSE ACROSS AND TO THE LEE OF THE
   SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.  LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS MAY BE MODEST IN SIZE...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
   FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WITH
   SUPPORTING FORCING FOR ASCENT...TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
   VIRGINIA/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

   SOMEWHAT WEAKER LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND POTENTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER
   DRYING BENEATH A MORE PRONOUNCED WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   COMPONENT...PROVIDE MORE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING STORM COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SAVANNAH VALLEY.

   ...FLORIDA PENINSULA...
   A PRONOUNCED WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE 850 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
   FOCUS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
   SEA BREEZE...WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH 30+ KT WEST
   NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.  THE
   EXTENT OF THIS POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCLEAR...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTIVE
   THAT CONSIDERABLE BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING
   MAY TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR PENINSULA.

   ..KERR/PICCA.. 05/03/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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