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    Day 2 Outlook >
Aug 25, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Aug 25 04:42:59 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160825 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160825 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 250442

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1142 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN OH VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN OK TO SWRN MO...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH
   VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WEST TX TO ERN MO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OHIO. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
   POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

   ...OH VALLEY...

   DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
   MID-SOUTH REGION WITH NEUTRAL-WEAK HEIGHT RISES EXPECTED ALONG A
   CORRIDOR FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. 
   CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN CONCENTRATED ALONG THE HIGH PW PLUME THAT
   WILL EXTEND AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE FROM THE SRN
   PLAINS...ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY.  WITHIN
   THIS PLUME...SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVELY
   ENHANCED...WILL TRACK ENEWD WITHIN SEASONALLY STRONG MID-LEVEL
   FLOW...ON THE ORDER OF 30-40KT.

   LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS MIGRATED INTO THE
   MID-MS VALLEY AND THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS INTO
   THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS LLJ VEERS AND WEAKENS
   ACROSS THIS REGION.  IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT...DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN RENEWED TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY ALONG LEADING EDGE OF AFOREMENTIONED
   EARLY-DAY COMPLEX.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE NRN OH VALLEY
   SUGGEST ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS/MARGINAL SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE
   WITHIN MODESTLY SHEARED WLY FLOW REGIME.  DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
   PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

   ...SRN PLAINS TO MISSOURI...

   A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 500MB FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 35KT IS EXPECTED TO
   EXTEND FROM THE BIG BEND OF TX...ARCING ACROSS WRN OK INTO CNTRL MO.
   LATEST SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE
   DURING THE PERIOD...DESPITE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
   PLAINS/MISSOURI REGION.  AS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...MEAGER
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL RESULT IN BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING
   FOCUSING PRIMARY CONVECTIVE THREAT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WHERE
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.  STRONG SFC HEATING IS
   EXPECTED TO FOCUS FROM WEST TX INTO NRN OK WHERE SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES
   SHOULD APPROACH 9 C/KM.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED HEATING...SFC PARCELS
   SHOULD REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP BY
   21Z.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS SERN KS WHERE AN ELY
   COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.  THIS ALONG WITH A FOCUSED LLJ COULD ENHANCE
   LOCALIZED SUPERCELL THREAT FROM NRN OK INTO SERN KS.  HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
   DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

   ..DARROW/PETERS.. 08/25/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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