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    Day 2 Outlook >
Apr 26, 2015 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Apr 26 01:00:49 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150426 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150426 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 260100

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

   VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM PORTIONS OF KY
   AND THE ERN HALF OF TN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDS FROM THE TN VALLEY
   THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
   WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
   THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD PERSIST
   OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED A PRIMARY SYNOPTIC LOW
   TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN KY...WHILE A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
   PRESSURE WAS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
   NC/SC BORDER.  THIS LATTER LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED ALONG A
   QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WRN NC INTO NRN SC...AND
   THEN ENEWD THROUGH SRN TO ERN NC TO OFFSHORE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
   INDICATED WEAKENING AND SHEARING OF A MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD
   THROUGH THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS.  THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
   WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO MIDLEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME LOCATED ALONG
   THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A NERN U.S. TROUGH.  THE WRN KY SURFACE LOW
   WILL UNDERGO FURTHER WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS
   TONIGHT WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCING SWD THROUGH
   TN...AR...AND OK BY 12Z.  MEANWHILE...THE NC/SC SURFACE LOW WILL
   DEEPEN TONIGHT...AND SHOULD MOVE EWD OFFSHORE THE NC COAST BY EARLY
   SUNDAY MORNING.

   ...NRN FL/GA/SRN AND ERN SC/SERN NC...
   MODELS SUGGEST INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN THE GREATEST ACROSS THIS
   REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND
   DEEP-LAYER WLY WINDS SUPPORTING STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT
   THREAT FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS.  HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY THREATS SHOULD
   BE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM NRN FL THROUGH SRN GA TO ERN SC
   AND POSSIBLY LATER TONIGHT INTO SERN NC.

   FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM DETAILS WITH A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
   ACROSS NRN FL...REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 462.

   ...KY/TN...
   THE ONSET OF DIABATIC COOLING WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DIMINISHING
   INSTABILITY THIS EVENING SUGGESTING A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN COVERAGE
   OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EWD AND THE COLD
   FRONT ADVANCES SWD.

   ..PETERS.. 04/26/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: April 26, 2015
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