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    Day 2 Outlook >
Aug 28, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Aug 28 19:36:04 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140828 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140828 2000Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 281936

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0236 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

   VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY FROM THE
   MID-MISSOURI VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
   ADDITIONAL BUT MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR FROM
   THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS INTO NORTH CAROLINA.

   NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

   ..BROYLES.. 08/28/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   THE PRIMARY UPPER-AIR FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD IS A MID-LEVEL
   TROUGH WHICH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
   PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
   S-CNTRL SD WILL DEVELOP SLOWLY EWD WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT
   GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND SEWD THROUGH THE
   SRN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NWD
   THROUGH THE MID MO INTO UPPER MS VALLEYS.

   ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

   TSTMS /LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED/ HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED WITHIN THE
   WARM SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL KS
   INTO NWRN TX. ADDITIONAL...SURFACE-BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL NEB TO
   WRN TX AS HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA ATTENDANT TO THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
   OVERSPREAD THE REGION. WHERE STRONGER HEATING CAN OCCUR...THE
   PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL YIELD AFTERNOON
   MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG. AND WHILE WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND ONLY MODEST /25-30 KT/ DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL TEND TO LIMIT
   THE DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION...ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF DAMAGING
   WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.

   ...MID/LOWER MO VALLEY INTO MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF CONSIDERABLE
   CLOUD COVER/CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THIS MORNING FROM ERN NEB EWD ACROSS
   IA AND NRN MO WHICH WILL TEND TO SLOW THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS
   ALONG THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE AREA.
   NONETHELESS...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PERSISTENT
   LOW-LEVEL WAA INVOF THE WARM FRONT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
   WILL FOSTER AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE
   REGION LATER TODAY.

   THE STRONGEST AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J PER
   KG/ IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER
   VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH WILL RESIDE ALONG THE WARM FRONT...EFFECTIVELY
   LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER-ORDER STORM MODES. STILL...A FEW
   MARGINALLY SEVERE /POSSIBLY ROTATING/ STORMS APPEAR PROBABLE WITH A
   RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...SOME HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
   TORNADO.

   ...SRN OH/TN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

   MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 1500-3000 J PER KG/ WILL
   ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP INVOF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...FUELING
   VIGOROUS AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT
   STORM ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY...THOUGH ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF STRONG
   WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
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