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    Day 2 Outlook >
Oct 1, 2016 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Oct 1 16:11:12 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20161001 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20161001 1630Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 011611

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1111 AM CDT SAT OCT 01 2016

   VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AND
   CENTRAL MT...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A COUPLE OF STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER ERN INDIANA/WRN OH THIS MORNING
   PER LATEST WV LOOP...AND IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT DRIFTS
   SLOWLY NNEWD WITH TIME.  MEANWHILE IN THE W...A SECOND UPPER LOW
   WILL REMAIN OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PAC NW COAST...THOUGH
   SMALLER-SCALE PERTURBATIONS ARE FORECAST TO ROTATE PERIODICALLY NEWD
   ACROSS THE PAC NW AND ADJACENT WRN CANADA.  ONE OF THESE
   DISTURBANCES -- NOW OBSERVED INVOF THE WA/ORE COAST -- IS FORECAST
   TO CROSS NWRN MT LATER IN THE PERIOD...AND SUPPORT AN ASSOCIATED
   INCREASE IN DEEP MOIST CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING HOURS.

   ...PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL MT...
   LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA REVEAL WIDESPREAD
   CLOUDINESS/SCATTERED SHOWERY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF ID AND
   INTO WRN MT...AS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. 
   THIS CLOUDINESS MAY RETARD SURFACE HEATING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHICH
   -- COMBINED WITH MEAGER DEWPOINTS -- MAY FURTHER LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
   APPRECIABLE CAPE DEVELOPMENT.  

   AS A SECOND/AFOREMENTIONED WA/ORE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS INTO NWRN
   MT LATE IN THE DAY...A CONVECTIVE INCREASE IS EXPECTED -- WITH
   SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS
   PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL MT INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  HOWEVER...IN
   ADDITION TO THE VERY MODEST CAPE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION...THE
   STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN W OF THE COOL FRONT PROGGED TO BE
   SHIFTING EWD ACROSS WRN MT...AND THUS THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL
   LIKELY REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STRONGER/ORGANIZED
   STORMS AT BEST.  WITH A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER EXPECTED...WILL MAINTAIN
   LOW /5%/ PROBABILITY FOR A STRONGER WIND GUST ATTM.  HOWEVER...RISK
   SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AND VERY ISOLATED...TAPERING OFF BY LATE
   EVENING.

   ..GOSS/GLEASON.. 10/01/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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Page last modified: October 01, 2016
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