Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Jan 26, 2015 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jan 26 19:30:58 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150126 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150126 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 261930

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0130 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

   VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S. THIS
   PERIOD.

   ...20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE...
   NO CHANGES ARE BEING MADE.  PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   STILL APPEAR BELOW THE MINIMUM 10 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR A
   CATEGORICAL THUNDERSTORM AREA.

   ..KERR.. 01/26/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP/FORECAST...
   AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST. SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH NOW EXITING THE S ATLANTIC CST WILL CONTINUE E ATOP
   STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE LATER TODAY...INDUCING STRONG
   CYCLOGENESIS NE OF HATTERAS. THIS LOW SHOULD TRACK NNE TO NEAR
   40W/70W BY 12Z TUE...WITH APPRECIABLE DEEPENING LIKELY DURING THE
   OVERNIGHT.

   COLD AND/OR DRY/STABLE AIR AT LWR LVLS WILL PROHIBIT SFC-BASED TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CONUS. NEVERTHELESS...A COUPLE AREAS MAY
   EXPERIENCE A FEW SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES. IN THE NEAR-TERM
   ---MID-LVL COLD ADVECTION/UPLIFT WITH NRN PART OF AFOREMENTIONED
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY FOSTER SUFFICIENT DEEPENING OF EXISTING
   CONVECTIVE BAND IN ERN NC TO SUPPORT ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKES AS THE
   BAND MOVES/DEVELOPS ENE ACROSS THE NC CSTL PLN AND TIDEWATER VA
   THROUGH MID AFTN. STORMS ALSO WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP OVER THE
   OFFSHORE GULF STREAM WATERS UNTIL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CLEARS THE
   AREA LATER TNGT.

   FARTHER N...ELEVATED WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DEEP ASCENT WILL
   STRONGLY INCREASE LATE TNGT AND EARLY TUE OVER ERN LONG
   ISLAND...SERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THE ADJACENT CSTL WATERS. WHILE
   TEMPERATURE PROFILES MAY REMAIN TOO COLD FOR MUCH CHARGE SEPARATION
   WITH INLAND EXTENT...EXPECTED TIGHTENING OF DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC
   ZONE MAY YIELD INCREASING COVERAGE OF EMBEDDED ELEVATED
   CONVECTION...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES...LATER IN THE PERIOD.
   MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN S AND E OF CAPE COD.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: January 26, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities