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    Day 2 Outlook >
Apr 1, 2015 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Apr 1 12:56:49 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150401 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150401 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 011256

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0756 AM CDT WED APR 01 2015

   VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NRN
   KS NEWD TO SW MN...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AND
   EXTENDING SWD INTO OK/N TX/WRN AR...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR NE FL/SE
   GA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS...ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
   NORTHERN KANSAS NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  A MORE
   ISOLATED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA
   INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH TEXAS...WITH A SEPARATE AREA ACROSS
   NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN
   PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER
   DEVELOPS NEWD TO SE MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO.  IN RESPONSE TO THE
   CYCLOGENESIS...THE MOIST SECTOR WILL BE DRAWN NWD AS FAR AS IA/SRN
   MN.  FARTHER S...A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA WILL MOVE NEWD
   FROM CENTRAL/N TX ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK SRN
   STREAM TROUGH EXITING NE MEXICO...ALONG WITH AN MCV FROM OVERNIGHT
   CONVECTION MOVING NEWD FROM NE OK TOWARD SW/CENTRAL MO TODAY.

   ...WRN OK/KS/NEB/IA/MN THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
   THE COLD FRONT /TRAILING THE PRIMARY NRN PLAINS CYCLONE/ WILL MOVE
   SEWD ACROSS NEB/SD/IA/MN TODAY...AND ACROSS KS/MO TONIGHT. 
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NWD FROM OK/TX IN ADVANCE OF THE
   FRONT...WITH THE WRN EDGE OF THE MOIST SECTOR DEMARCATED BY A LEE
   TROUGH/DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM A SECONDARY/LEE CYCLONE IN WRN KS
   THIS AFTERNOON.  THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD HAS BEEN DISRUPTED
   ACROSS OK AS A RESULT OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...SO NWD MOISTURE
   TRANSPORT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED/REDUCED SOME COMPARED TO THE MORE
   AGGRESSIVE MODEL FORECASTS.  THIS WILL LIKEWISE REDUCE BUOYANCY FROM
   EARLIER EXPECTATIONS...THOUGH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG IS STILL
   PROBABLE GIVEN THE PLUME OF 8-9 C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE THAT HAS
   OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

   THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY 21-00Z
   FROM SW MN SWWD INTO NEB...WITHIN THE NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE
   BUOYANCY.  GIVEN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR THAT WILL BE MARGINAL FOR
   SUPERCELLS...AND SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATIONS PARALLEL TO THE
   BOUNDARY...A RATHER QUICK UPSCALE GROWTH TO LINEAR CONVECTION IS
   LIKELY.  A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
   THE STRONGER EMBEDDED STORMS FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
   THROUGH LATE EVENING.  FARTHER SW...THE DEGREE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT
   IS UNCLEAR ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SW KS SWD NEAR THE
   TX/WRN OK BORDER.  DEEP MIXING WILL PROBABLY REDUCE BOUNDARY LAYER
   DEWPOINTS E OF THE DRYLINE...AND THE MOISTURE INFLUX MAY ALSO BE
   INTERRUPTED BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN N TX.  GIVEN THE LIKELY
   HIGH-BASED NATURE OF ANY STORMS THAT FORM...AND ONLY
   MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS...WILL MAINTAIN
   ONLY 5% HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES.

   ...TX TO ERN OK/WRN AR/MO TODAY...
   CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST AND DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH
   THE DAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SUBTLE SPEED MAXIMA AND THE MCV
   EJECTING NEWD FROM NE OK.  LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP AS
   YESTERDAY...AND VERTICAL SHEAR HAS ALSO WEAKENED.  STILL... REMNANT
   INSTABILITY AND SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS SUGGEST A MARGINAL
   WIND/HAIL RISK WITH THE STRONGER EMBEDDED STORMS.  AREAS FARTHER S
   INTO CENTRAL TX MAY HAVE SOME RISK FOR STRONG STORMS LATER
   TODAY...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL TEND TO SLOW SURFACE HEATING.  THIS AREA
   MAY NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED IN LATER UPDATES.

   ...SE GA/NE FL THIS AFTERNOON...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NE AL/CENTRAL GA WILL MOVE ESEWD THROUGH
   THIS AFTERNOON...BRUSHING THE NE FL/SE GA AREA.  THE 12Z JAX
   SOUNDING SHOWS SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR AND POTENTIAL BUOYANCY TO
   SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 04/01/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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