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    Day 2 Outlook >
May 1, 2011 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 1 22:31:23 UTC 2011  (Print Version)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
No graphic currently available. SPC AC 012032 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0332 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...OZARKS AND MID-MS VALLEY... A FEW CHANGES TO THE OUTLOOK HAVE BEEN MADE FOR 20Z. THE FIRST CHANGE IS TO EXTEND THE SLIGHT RISK AREA EWD INTO WRN TN FOR BOTH HAIL AND WIND. A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING NEAR MEMPHIS ON THE FAR NRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. AHEAD OF THE LINE...THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDS ABOUT 150 STATUTE MILES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SUGGESTING THE LINE MAY HAVE A SEVERE THREAT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. OTHER THAN THE SLIGHT RISK EXTENSION...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PROBABILITY LINES HAVE BEEN MADE IN CNTRL AND EAST TX WHERE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 05/01/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011/ ...CNTRL TX NEWD INTO PARTS OF THE LWR MS AND LWR TN VLYS... WITH TROUGH/UPPER LOW OVER SRN ROCKIES MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EWD THRU THE PERIOD...STRONG SWLY MID/UPR JET WILL REMAIN ACROSS SRN PLAINS. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH REINFORCEMENT FROM THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS MORNINGS ACTIVE POST FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS PUSHED SEWD ACROSS NCENTRAL TX. THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS TX EWD TO THE MS RIVER IS PRIMED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS...ATOP WHICH RESIDES A PRONOUNCED EML WITH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM. THUS FAR THE MOST ACTIVE STORMS...INCLUDING SEVERE...HAVE BEEN ELEVATED TO THE N OF FRONTAL ZONE. AS WARM SECTOR TEMPS RISE TO THE MID 80S IN E TX TO MS RIVER...CINH WILL DISSIPATE...LEADING TO DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA OF BEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. AMPLE DEEP SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS AS SRN FRINGE OF 50-60 KT SWLY MID LVL FLOW TOPS 35-40 KT SSWLY CONFLUENT LLJ. STORM MODE WILL RANGE FROM SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO COMPLEX ROTATING STRUCTURES/BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS. THE STRONGEST LOW LVL SHEAR SHOULD EXIST FROM NE TX AND THE ARKLATEX NEWD TO NEAR MEMPHIS...WHERE A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DMGG WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN SVR THREATS. FARTHER SW WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAKER AND CAP A LITTLE STRONGER...SCTD SEVERE STORMS MAY FORM A BIT LATER IN THE AFTN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT/DRY LINE OVER ERN PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND OVER E CNTRL TX. WHILE SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG...PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL WITH A MORE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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