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SPC AC 012032
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011
VALID 012000Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...OZARKS AND MID-MS VALLEY...
A FEW CHANGES TO THE OUTLOOK HAVE BEEN MADE FOR 20Z. THE FIRST
CHANGE IS TO EXTEND THE SLIGHT RISK AREA EWD INTO WRN TN FOR BOTH
HAIL AND WIND. A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING NEAR
MEMPHIS ON THE FAR NRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. AHEAD OF THE
LINE...THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDS ABOUT 150 STATUTE MILES EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SUGGESTING THE LINE MAY HAVE A SEVERE
THREAT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. OTHER THAN THE SLIGHT RISK
EXTENSION...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PROBABILITY LINES HAVE
BEEN MADE IN CNTRL AND EAST TX WHERE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES.. 05/01/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011/
...CNTRL TX NEWD INTO PARTS OF THE LWR MS AND LWR TN VLYS...
WITH TROUGH/UPPER LOW OVER SRN ROCKIES MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EWD THRU
THE PERIOD...STRONG SWLY MID/UPR JET WILL REMAIN ACROSS SRN PLAINS.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH REINFORCEMENT FROM THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS MORNINGS ACTIVE POST FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS PUSHED SEWD ACROSS
NCENTRAL TX.
THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS TX EWD TO THE MS RIVER IS PRIMED FOR A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS...ATOP WHICH RESIDES
A PRONOUNCED EML WITH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM. THUS FAR THE
MOST ACTIVE STORMS...INCLUDING SEVERE...HAVE BEEN ELEVATED TO THE N
OF FRONTAL ZONE.
AS WARM SECTOR TEMPS RISE TO THE MID 80S IN E TX TO MS RIVER...CINH
WILL DISSIPATE...LEADING TO DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA OF BEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE. AMPLE DEEP SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS AS
SRN FRINGE OF 50-60 KT SWLY MID LVL FLOW TOPS 35-40 KT SSWLY
CONFLUENT LLJ. STORM MODE WILL RANGE FROM SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
TO COMPLEX ROTATING STRUCTURES/BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS. THE STRONGEST
LOW LVL SHEAR SHOULD EXIST FROM NE TX AND THE ARKLATEX NEWD TO NEAR
MEMPHIS...WHERE A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL
AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DMGG WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN SVR THREATS.
FARTHER SW WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAKER AND CAP A LITTLE
STRONGER...SCTD SEVERE STORMS MAY FORM A BIT LATER IN THE AFTN JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT/DRY LINE OVER ERN PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND
OVER E CNTRL TX. WHILE SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN MUCAPE IN
EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG...PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL WITH A
MORE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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