SPC AC 260029
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017
Valid 260100Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE
ENHANCED RISK AREA ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH
Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are expected
across parts of central and eastern New Mexico into west Texas this
evening. Isolated severe storms are possible in southern Colorado
and southern New Mexico into far west Texas.
...Southern Rockies/Southern High Plains...
The latest water vapor imagery shows northwest mid-level flow across
the High Plains with a plume of moisture extending from the
Intermountain West southeastward into the southern High Plains.
Numerous thunderstorms are ongoing along the eastern edge of this
plume across east-central New Mexico and the western Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles. Surface dewpoints across east-central and
northeast New Mexico are in the upper 50s and lower 60s F with a
pocket of moderate instability analyzed across this area by the RAP.
In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Tucumcari, NM shows southerly winds
at the surface veering to northerly at about 4 km AGL with 40 kt of
west-northwest flow in the upper-levels. This combined with steep
mid-level lapse rates will support rotating storms and isolated
large hail. As cells congeal across east-central New Mexico, a
transition to linear mode may take place over the next couple of
hours. As a result, wind damage could become the greater threat in
the mid evening as a line moves toward the New Mexico-Texas state
line...see MCD 1149. The severe threat should be increasingly
marginal with southward extent into southern New Mexico and far west
Texas where deep-layer shear is weaker than in areas to the north.
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