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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jun 29, 2016 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jun 29 02:52:02 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160629 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160629 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 290252

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0952 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

   VALID 290245Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PART OF WESTERN AND
   SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST
   COLORADO...

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
   ACROSS WESTERN NEB...NORTHEAST CO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN KS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK INTO
   NORTHWEST AND WEST TX...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
   AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO CENTRAL MT...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN VA TO SOUTHEAST
   NY...

   AMENDED TO EXPAND THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES TO INCLUDE MORE OF
   NORTHWEST INTO WEST TX

   ...SUMMARY...
   THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS TO
   SPREAD ACROSS PART OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...FAR
   NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. 
   SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
   SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH NORTHWEST TO WEST TEXAS...WHILE ISOLATED
   STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
   FROM EASTERN VIRGINIA TO SOUTHEAST NEW YORK THIS EVENING.

   ...SOUTHWEST OK INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST TX...
   A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD-MOVING ARCING BAND OF STORMS /WITH A HISTORY
   OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS/ ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN
   MCS...NOW MOVING ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION OF SOUTHWEST OK
   AND ADJACENT NORTHWEST TX...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE TO THE
   SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT REMAINS MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE.  THIS SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WEAKEN AS ACTIVITY REACHES WEST
   TX LATER TONIGHT.  THESE FACTORS AND THE ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE
   STORMS SUPPORT THE EXPANSION OF THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES THROUGH
   NORTHWEST TO WEST TX...AND THE REDUCTION IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES
   ACROSS PART OF WESTERN OK...WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS BEEN STABILIZED
   IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING MCS.

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/
   ...STRONG...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
   SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
   NEB...FAR NORTHEAST CO AND INTO NORTHWEST KS...

   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   PORTIONS OF THIS REGION HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK /CAT4
   SEVERE THREAT/ WITH THE ENHANCED RISK /CAT3 SEVERE THREAT/ EXPANDED
   TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.  THE UPSCALE EVOLUTION OF A FORWARD-
   PROPAGATING MCS IS UNDERWAY ACROSS WESTERN NEB WITH REPORTS EARLIER
   THIS EVENING OF 84 KT AND 90 KT IN AND AROUND CDR IN NORTHWEST NEB. 
   THE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED COLD POOL /00Z
   OBSERVATIONS SHOW CDR IN THE LOWER 60S AND DOWNSTREAM TEMPERATURES
   IN THE MID-UPPER 80S/...WHILE CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
   COOL WITH THIS STRENGTHENING MCS.  CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
   EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE MCS AND THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUPPORTS AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WITH
   STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH
   THIS EVENING...REACHING PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND PERHAPS CENTRAL KS.

   ...SOUTHWEST OK/ADJACENT NORTHWEST TX...
   RESIDUAL MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THE ONGOING MCS WITH
   DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.  

   ...EASTERN VA/CENTRAL AND EASTERN MD/DE/EASTERN PA/NJ/SOUTHEAST
   NY...
   GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS AND DPVA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
   THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
   CONVECTION NEAR AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  THE SEVERE-WEATHER
   THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
   /FROM VT/EASTERN NY TO EASTERN VA...SOUTHERN/EASTERN MD AND DE/ AS
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNDERGOES FURTHER STABILIZATION.  THE LOSS OF
   DAYTIME HEATING...INCLUDING LOCATIONS DOWNSTREAM OF ONGOING
   STORMS...AND THE PRESENCE OF WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FURTHER
   RESULT IN WEAKENING INSTABILITY.  THESE FACTORS SUPPORT A REDUCTION
   IN OVERALL SEVERE-WEATHER PROBABILITIES WITH THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE.

   ..PETERS.. 06/29/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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