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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 28, 2015 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jul 28 00:42:46 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150728 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150728 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 280042

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0742 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

   VALID 280100Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN AND
   CNTRL PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN KS TO WRN MN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
   NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT.  SEVERE...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
   HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY CONVECTION AS IT SPREADS ACROSS
   EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS.

   ...NORTHERN PLAINS...

   LATEST WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS SPREADING ACROSS
   THE NRN HIGH PLAINS OF MT/WY TOWARD THE WRN DAKOTAS.  NUMEROUS
   THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL SPEED
   MAX WHERE DIFLUENT HIGH-LEVEL FLOW IS QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR ROBUST
   DEEP CONVECTION.  SEVERAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED ACROSS
   THIS REGION WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED DEEP
   ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  WHILE A FEW TORNADOES MAY ULTIMATELY BE NOTED
   WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...SEVERE DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE COMMON
   WITH FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTION.  SEVERAL MEASURED WIND GUSTS IN
   EXCESS OF 60KT HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AND A N-S SQUALL LINE IS
   EMERGING OVER WRN SD ATTM.  SEVERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS LINE
   AS IT MOVES EAST THIS EVENING.  FARTHER NORTH...00Z SOUNDING FROM
   GGW EXHIBITS SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND SFC-6KM SHEAR IN
   EXCESS OF 60KT.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE
   INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS THE GREATEST
   RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW FROM NERN MT INTO
   NWRN ND.

   ..DARROW.. 07/28/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: July 28, 2015
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