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    Day 2 Outlook >
Oct 2, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Oct 2 01:00:10 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20141002 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141002 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 020100

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

   VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CNTRL AND
   SRN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
   EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING.
   A SEPARATE AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN
   AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND
   OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. A FEW
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL
   AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.

   ...ERN KS INTO NCNTRL AND CNTRL MO...

   NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE UNDERWAY OVER EASTERN KS BOTH
   IN WARM SECTOR IN ASSOCIATION WITH INTENSIFYING LLJ AND ALONG NE-SW
   ORIENTED BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN KS. OTHER NUMEROUS STORMS CONTINUE
   FARTHER EAST ACROSS CNTRL AND NCNTRL MO WHERE THE STRENGTHENING LLJ
   IS FORCING ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF A CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   IN THIS REGION AND 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
   ORGANIZED STRUCTURES INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING MAINLY IN WARM SECTOR AND ALONG
   AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES.

   ...NWRN THROUGH NCNTRL KS AND SOUTHERN NEB...

   MODEST WWD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXISTS OVER CNTRL AND WRN KS
   WITHIN AN ELY POST-FRONTAL REGIME. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A ZONE OF DEEP
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
   ERN CO WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AS
   THIS ZONE OF ASCENT INTERACTS WITH RICHER MOISTURE AND GREATER
   INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM...STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER WRN
   KS AND SWRN NEB AND SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE
   CURRENTLY INCREASING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL KS NWD INTO
   SCNTRL NEB.

   ...NCNTRL TX THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN OK INTO SRN MO...

   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITHIN ZONE OF WEAK
   ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFYING LLJ FROM NCNTRL TX
   NEWD THROUGH OK INTO SERN KS AND SWRN MO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
   LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...BUT COULD POSE AT LEAST A MODEST
   THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL.

   ..DIAL.. 10/02/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: October 02, 2014
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