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    Day 2 Outlook >
Apr 25, 2015 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Apr 25 01:54:53 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150425 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150425 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 250154

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 2
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0854 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

   VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
   HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
   NORTHERN LOUISIANA...

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
   NORTHEAST KANSAS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SOUTHERN ENH
   RISK AREA....SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND
   EASTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE NORTHERN ENH
   RISK AREA...ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COASTAL
   AREAS...

   CORRECTED OUTLOOK GRAPHIC

   ...SUMMARY...
   THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THIS EVENING ACROSS
   PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS...ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO
   PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

   ...SUMMARY...
   PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING ONGOING SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS...IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED IN SCATTERED AREAS ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND LIKELY WILL PERSIST ANOTHER
   SEVERAL HOURS WHILE SPREADING EASTWARD.

   ...NORTHERN TEXAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
   UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH IS ONGOING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO
   NORTHEAST TEXAS...IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
   CONTENT...AT LEAST MODERATELY LARGE CAPE...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR.  ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED BENEATH THE STRONGLY DIFLUENT REGIME
   BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
   TRACKING EASTWARD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL CAPPING
   ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD DOWNSTREAM SUBTROPICAL RIDGING.  THIS APPEARS
   ROUGHLY COINCIDENT WITH A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OR ENHANCED
   LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
   NORTHERN LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...ALONG WHICH HIGHEST
   PROBABILITIES FOR LOCALLY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES WITH
   MESOVORTICES WITHIN THE EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SEEM TO
   EXIST.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF
   CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING WITHIN A MORE
   STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

   ...CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS...
   FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE POLAR JET HAS SUPPORTED INCREASING
   VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...MOSTLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...JUST
   EAST OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MIGRATING FROM
   CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  MORE
   LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
   THE LOW /COMPARED TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ HAS MITIGATED THE
   OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION. 
   HOWEVER...THERE STILL APPEARS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...GIVEN THE
   FORCING AND VERTICAL SHEAR...FOR A CONTINUING SEVERE RISK THROUGH AT
   LEAST THE EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70
   CORRIDOR...WEST OF SALINA...TOWARD THE KANSAS CITY AREA.  THIS MAY
   INCLUDE AN INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE SURFACE GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO
   A CONTINUING RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND TORNADOES.

   ...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO MID/LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...
   INTENSE DISCRETE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
   SPREADING ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN
   TEXAS...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE CAPE. 
   SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT LEAST
   ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE SPREADING TOWARD THE COASTAL
   PLAIN...BEFORE PERHAPS BECOMING SUPPRESSED BY INCREASING INHIBITION
   AND WEAKENING MID/UPPER SUPPORT.

   ..KERR.. 04/25/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: April 25, 2015
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