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    Day 2 Outlook >
May 29, 2016 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 29 00:55:42 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160529 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160529 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 290055

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0755 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

   VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF WEST/CENTRAL TX...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS EAST WI TO SOUTH MO...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS COASTAL SC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STORMS WITH A PRIMARY HAZARD OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD
   PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS
   OF WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS.

   ...SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...
   SCATTERED STORMS ARE ONGOING WITHIN A PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL WAA FROM
   THE HILL COUNTRY TO NORTHWEST TX. WHILE THIS PLUME WILL SHIFT
   WEST/NORTH TONIGHT...PRESENCE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITHIN AN
   ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO LARGE HAIL SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE RISK
   CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST LATE EVENING. INCREASING MLCIN AND
   FORCING FOR ASCENT SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD
   YIELD A WANING THREAT OVERNIGHT. FARTHER NORTH...A COUPLE AREAS OF
   ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF OK INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
   KS TOWARDS DAWN. WHILE EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL...LARGE
   BUOYANCY COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE SEVERE HAIL STORMS.

   ...EAST WI TO SOUTH MO...
   BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
   AFTER SUNSET AS NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING ENSUES. OVERALL
   RISK SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AS VEER-BACK-VEER WIND PROFILES EVIDENT
   IN 00Z RAOBS LIMIT THE DEGREE OF SHEAR AND ORGANIZATION. ISOLATED
   STRONG WIND GUSTS PRODUCING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
   THE MAIN HAZARD OVER NORTH IL/EAST WI. THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
   HAIL MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS SOUTH MO WHERE BUOYANCY IS
   COMPARATIVELY LARGER ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EML.

   ...COASTAL SC...
   TC BONNIE IS FORECAST BY NHC TO APPROACH THE SC COAST TONIGHT. BELT
   OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD ENLARGE HODOGRAPHS
   ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST BY 12Z/SUN....RESULTING IN A RISK FOR A
   BRIEF TORNADO.

   ..GRAMS.. 05/29/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: May 29, 2016
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