SPC AC 250051
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
Thunderstorms may remain capable of producing a few strong to
damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail through mid evening
(next couple hours) but a gradual diminishing trend is expected.
...Southern Nebraska through Western and central Kansas...
Storms that developed over the higher terrain of CO as well as along
lee trough have consolidated into a poorly organized line of storms
across western KS. The 00Z RAOB from Dodge City indicated 1700 J/kg
MLCAPE with 8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates and a modest inversion
around 700 mb, but with weak winds aloft and vertical shear. A
strengthening low-level jet will help to support east-southeast
propagation of this activity into central KS with an ongoing threat
of downburst winds and hail during the next couple of hours.
Stabilization of the surface layer with onset of nocturnal cooling
should result in a gradual weakening by 02Z. Additional storms are
developing over southwest NE in association with what appears to be
an MCV. These storms are multicell in character, and the VWP from
North Platte indicates steep lapse rates and around 1500 J/kg
MLCAPE. A marginal threat for locally strong wind gusts will persist
next hour before increasing convective inhibition contributes to a
...Eastern Dakotas through Minnesota...
Storms continue to develop over northeastern ND along cold front and
in association with ascent accompanying an upper trough. Other
isolated storms persist along surface trough over southern SD and
farther east in warm sector over southern MN. While the
thermodynamic environment will support at least a marginal risk for
isolated downburst winds and marginally severe hail, storms should
begin a weakening trend as the boundary layer stabilizes.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z