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    Day 2 Outlook >
Apr 27, 2017 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Apr 27 00:59:19 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170427 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170427 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

The SPC is forecasting ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon and tonight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.  View What is a Watch? clip.

Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 270059

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0759 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

   Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND VICINITY...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   NORTHERN IN AND NORTHWEST OH...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
   THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms will remain possible from portions of the
   north-central Gulf Coast region northward to the southern Great
   Lakes region into tonight. Widely scattered damaging wind gusts and
   perhaps a couple of tornadoes may accompany storms moving across
   parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and vicinity into the
   overnight hours, while a cluster of storms moving across portions of
   northern Indiana and northwest Ohio may produce widely scattered
   damaging winds into the evening hours.

   ...Portions of the north-central Gulf Coast region northward to the
   southern Great Lakes region...
   A corridor of convective bands extends from the lower OH Valley to
   the north-central Gulf Coast vicinity. The northern portion of this
   activity is pinching off the northernmost extent of more appreciable
   moisture return, which 00Z observed soundings suggest resides closer
   to the coast. While poleward return of more substantially modified
   maritime air will occur ahead of the convection, the richer moisture
   and related substantive buoyancy (MLCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg)
   should remain generally near and south of western/middle TN. This is
   where sufficient deep shear (45-65 kt of effective bulk shear) will
   also exist in favor of continued quasi-linear convective modes
   capable of widely scattered damaging winds. This activity will
   spread into western AL through the overnight hours, and sufficient
   low-level shear may exist for occasional line-embedded and
   line-preceding supercell structures to support a couple of
   tornadoes. Some isolated severe risk could extend even farther east
   later in the night.

   Farther north, a sustained cluster of storms continues advancing
   northeastward across northern IN, and may eventually affect parts of
   northwest OH before weakening in southern Lower MI this evening.
   Moderately steep midlevel lapse rates around 7.3 C/km, based on the
   Detroit 00Z sounding, will support sufficient buoyancy amid modest
   moisture return for some severe risk persisting in the short-term.

   Relatively weaker low-level lapse rates and limited moisture return
   between the Slight Risk areas suggest that the severe risk should
   remain more isolated across parts of the lower/middle Ohio Valley
   region and vicinity. However, locally damaging wind gusts may
   accompany the most pronounced bowing convective line segments.

   ..Cohen.. 04/27/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: April 27, 2017
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