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    Day 2 Outlook >
May 25, 2018 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri May 25 00:51:32 UTC 2018 (Print Version | 20180525 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180525 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 250051

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0751 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

   Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
   THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms may remain capable of producing a few strong to
   damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail through mid evening
   (next couple hours) but a gradual diminishing trend is expected.

   ...Southern Nebraska through Western and central Kansas...

   Storms that developed over the higher terrain of CO as well as along
   lee trough have consolidated into a poorly organized line of storms
   across western KS. The 00Z RAOB from Dodge City indicated 1700 J/kg
   MLCAPE with 8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates and a modest inversion
   around 700 mb, but with weak winds aloft and vertical shear. A
   strengthening low-level jet will help to support east-southeast
   propagation of this activity into central KS with an ongoing threat
   of downburst winds and hail during the next couple of hours.
   Stabilization of the surface layer with onset of nocturnal cooling
   should result in a gradual weakening by 02Z. Additional storms are
   developing over southwest NE in association with what appears to be
   an MCV. These storms are multicell in character, and the VWP from
   North Platte indicates steep lapse rates and around 1500 J/kg
   MLCAPE. A marginal threat for locally strong wind gusts will persist
   next hour before increasing convective inhibition contributes to a
   diminishing trend.

   ...Eastern Dakotas through Minnesota...

   Storms continue to develop over northeastern ND along cold front and
   in association with ascent accompanying an upper trough. Other
   isolated storms persist along surface trough over southern SD and
   farther east in warm sector over southern MN. While the
   thermodynamic environment will support at least a marginal risk for
   isolated downburst winds and marginally severe hail, storms should
   begin a weakening trend as the boundary layer stabilizes.

   ..Dial.. 05/25/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: May 25, 2018
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