Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
May 23, 2015 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat May 23 01:11:14 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150523 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150523 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 230111

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0811 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

   VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN NM AND SOUTHWEST
   AND WEST TX THROUGH TONIGHT...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A PART OF EAST-CENTRAL
   AND NORTHEAST CO THIS EVENING...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
   THROUGH TONIGHT...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EAST AND NORTHEAST CO
   THIS EVENING...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
   TEXAS...AND A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST COLORADO.  THUNDERSTORM
   COVERAGE INCLUDING SOME SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT
   ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.

   ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
   A PROGRESSIVE CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE LOWER
   CO RIVER VALLEY...REACHING THE FOUR CORNERS TO NWRN MEXICO BY 12Z
   SATURDAY.  DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS /SELY TO SLY LLJ AND SWLY 500-MB
   FLOW/ WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS FORCING FOR ASCENT/HEIGHT
   FALLS BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH THE APPROACH
   OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH.  THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL
   MAINTAIN POLEWARD MOISTURE RETURN...SUCH THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AND
   INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH-NORTH OVERNIGHT.  THESE FACTORS
   COMBINED WITH A PLUME OF STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING
   EWD SUPPORTING MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER AND
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
   WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE.

   THERE WILL BE TWO MAIN LOCATIONS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS:
   1/ IN ADDITION TO UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR WEST
   TX...INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG A PORTION OF THE DRY LINE EXTENDING
   FROM 15 NE MRF TO APPROXIMATELY 25 W MAF AS THE SELY LLJ STRENGTHENS
   SUGGEST NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

   2/ AS GREATER DEEP-LAYER ASCENT SPREADS ENEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...A SEPARATE ZONE FOR
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION /PER SEVERAL MODELS/ APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
   EAST-CENTRAL AND NERN NM ALONG THE LEE TROUGH...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING
   INTO WEST TX LATER TONIGHT.

   ...EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CO...
   FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL E/SELY WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS
   EVENING IN E AND NE CO...TO THE NORTH OF A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
   PRESSURE ACROSS SERN CO.  THIS LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUSTAIN SURFACE
   DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 F...BENEATH STEEPENING
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   OF 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING A
   SUPERCELL...WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTING THE
   TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
   SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY EVENTUALLY
   WEAKENS.

   ..PETERS.. 05/23/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 23, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities