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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jun 26, 2017 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jun 26 00:29:54 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170626 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170626 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 260029

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0729 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

   Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE
   ENHANCED RISK AREA ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN
   HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE
   SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are expected
   across parts of central and eastern New Mexico into west Texas this
   evening. Isolated severe storms are possible in southern Colorado
   and southern New Mexico into far west Texas.

   ...Southern Rockies/Southern High Plains...
   The latest water vapor imagery shows northwest mid-level flow across
   the High Plains with a plume of moisture extending from the
   Intermountain West southeastward into the southern High Plains.
   Numerous thunderstorms are ongoing along the eastern edge of this
   plume across east-central New Mexico and the western Texas and
   Oklahoma Panhandles. Surface dewpoints across east-central and
   northeast New Mexico are in the upper 50s and lower 60s F with a
   pocket of moderate instability analyzed across this area by the RAP.
   In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Tucumcari, NM shows southerly winds
   at the surface veering to northerly at about 4 km AGL with 40 kt of
   west-northwest flow in the upper-levels. This combined with steep
   mid-level lapse rates will support rotating storms and isolated
   large hail. As cells congeal across east-central New Mexico, a
   transition to linear mode may take place over the next couple of
   hours. As a result, wind damage could become the greater threat in
   the mid evening as a line moves toward the New Mexico-Texas state
   line...see MCD 1149. The severe threat should be increasingly
   marginal with southward extent into southern New Mexico and far west
   Texas where deep-layer shear is weaker than in areas to the north.

   ..Broyles.. 06/26/2017

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Page last modified: June 26, 2017
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