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    Day 2 Outlook >
Apr 20, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Apr 20 00:50:39 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140420 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140420 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 200047

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0747 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

   VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THE SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT...ACCOMPANYING A CLUSTER OF INTENSE
   STORMS ADVANCING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS...IS
   EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS ACTIVITY SPREADS ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY
   THIS EVENING.

   ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES/PLAINS...
   AN INTENSE STORM CLUSTER NOW PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE PECOS
   VALLEY REMAINS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ONGOING CONVECTION.  AND...WITH
   ONLY SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY 850 FLOW TO AROUND 30
   KTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...DRIER AND MORE STABLE
   CONDITIONS TO THE EAST PROBABLY WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY RAPID
   WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY THROUGH 02-03Z.

   OTHERWISE...WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DRIVEN BY LOWER/MID
   TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION MAY CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL
   PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT.  OTHER GENERALLY WEAK
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN
   ROCKIES...INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF LARGER SCALE
   UPPER TROUGHING.  MOST OTHER ONGOING STORMS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
   WEST AND ROCKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
   02-04Z...WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.

   ...GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA/NE FLORIDA COAST...
   SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LINGERS ACROSS THE COASTAL
   PLAIN...BUT AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES
   OFFSHORE THROUGH THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...THE RISK FOR CONTINUING
   DEVELOPMENT INLAND OF COASTAL AREAS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.

   ..KERR.. 04/20/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: April 20, 2014
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