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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 1, 2015 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jul 1 01:01:16 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150701 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150701 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 010101

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0801 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

   VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN DAKOTAS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL/SRN AZ...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN VA/NERN NC...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN GREAT PLAINS TO LOWER MO
   VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL OH VALLEY TO ATLANTIC
   COAST...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS AZ/LOWER CO VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR MOST PROBABLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
   DAKOTAS...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA...AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO
   NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING.

   ...NRN GREAT PLAINS...
   A COUPLE SUPERCELLS SHOULD TRACK S/SE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
   FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN
   A CONFINED CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR. LARGE HAIL...A
   TORNADO OR TWO...AND LOCALIZED SEVERE WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
   GIVEN THE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER AND MORE MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES RESULTING IN WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ERN EXTENT PER 00Z BIS/ABR
   RAOBS...THESE HAZARDS SHOULD REMAIN SPATIALLY LIMITED AND LIKELY
   DIMINISH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS GREATER LOW-LEVEL ASCENT BECOMES
   FOCUSED FARTHER SE OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY.

   ...CNTRL/SRN AZ...
   REGENERATIVE CONVECTION OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND SERN AZ IS POSING
   AN INITIAL RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND AMIDST STRONG
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITH 45-KT MID-LEVEL ELYS SAMPLED IN 00Z TUS RAOB.
   THIS ACTIVITY MAY YIELD A DEEPENING COLD POOL WITH THE DOWNSTREAM
   AIR MASS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES OF 100-110 DEG AND DEW POINTS AROUND 60 DEG. THIS COULD
   SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO PREDOMINANTLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH A
   WWD-PROPAGATING CLUSTER THAT MAY APPROACH THE LOWER CO RIVER LATE
   TONIGHT. 

   ...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
   DESPITE NEARLY MOIST-ADIABATIC MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN 00Z REGIONAL
   RAOBS...MODEST BUOYANCY AMIDST 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD YET
   SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE REST OF EVENING WITH
   FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT GIVEN HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM OF THE
   LOWER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST TROUGH. DAMAGING WINDS...MARGINAL HAIL AND
   A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

   ...SERN VA/NERN NC...
   MAINTAINING SLIGHT RISK AHEAD OF A QLCS LIKELY PROGRESSING EWD
   ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. GIVEN THE
   RELATIVE MODEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR/BUOYANCY IN 00Z MHX RAOB...MAIN
   HAZARD SHOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS PRODUCING TREE DAMAGE.

   ..GRAMS.. 07/01/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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