Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Aug 30, 2015 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Aug 30 00:55:04 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150830 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150830 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 300055

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0755 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

   VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL MT TO ERN GREAT BASIN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THIS
   EVENING FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.

   ...CNTRL MT TO ERN GREAT BASIN...
   HAVE RESHAPED THE LOW PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN ADVANCE
   OF TWO PRIMARY TSTM CLUSTERS /ONE ACROSS N-CNTRL MT AND THE OTHER
   OVER SERN ID INTO NERN NV AND NWRN UT/. A VERY DEEP-MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS AROUND 40-50 DEG F
   ON THE FRINGE OF STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLYS SHOULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR
   SPORADIC STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS. GIVEN THE DEARTH OF
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH STRONGER FORCING FOR
   ASCENT/DEEP-LAYER WINDS REMAINING W OF THIS ACTIVITY...THE RISK FOR
   SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD MIDNIGHT. 

   ...WA COAST...
   00Z UIL RAOB SAMPLED RATHER STRONG DEEP-LAYER WINDS YIELDING AN
   ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT
   ROTATION. HOWEVER...BUOYANCY IS QUITE MEAGER EVEN WITH PW VALUES
   AROUND 1.1 INCHES WHICH IS JUST OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE
   DATE. SCATTERED OFFSHORE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION SHOULD APPROACH THE
   COAST LATER THIS EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
   IMPINGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW-LEVEL
   WINDS ARE PROGGED TO DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY AND THE RISK FOR A BRIEF
   TORNADO APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT PROBABILITIES.

   ..GRAMS.. 08/30/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: August 30, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities