Mar 2, 2015 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Mar 2 00:51:17 UTC 2015 (20150302 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150302 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150302 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150302 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150302 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150302 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 020051

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0651 PM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

   VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING OVER
   CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. OTHER SHOWERS AND A FEW
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM LOUISIANA INTO
   MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA.

   ...LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...

   00Z RAOBS FROM NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE CHARLES SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY
   ABOVE A NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   PERSIST TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITHIN ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL
   THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

   ...CNTRL THROUGH SCNTRL CA...

   WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING OVER CNTRL
   AND SCNTRL CA WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES...COLD AIR ALOFT AND ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH AN UPPER LOW
   CIRCULATION EXISTS. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
   UNDERGO A GRADUAL DECREASE WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.

   ..DIAL.. 03/02/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z