Jun 30, 2015 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jun 30 00:56:45 UTC 2015 (20150630 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150630 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150630 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 9,232 1,929,977 Minneapolis, MN...Rochester, MN...Bloomington, MN...Eagan, MN...Eden Prairie, MN...
MARGINAL 411,973 30,719,572 Phoenix, AZ...Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Nashville, TN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150630 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150630 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 415,599 31,445,917 Phoenix, AZ...Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Nashville, TN...Tucson, AZ...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150630 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 9,357 2,059,913 Minneapolis, MN...Rochester, MN...Bloomington, MN...Plymouth, MN...Eagan, MN...
5 % 157,277 14,393,246 Phoenix, AZ...Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Tucson, AZ...Mesa, AZ...
   SPC AC 300056

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0756 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

   VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN MN/NERN IA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MS VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN ROCKIES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TN VALLEY TO SRN GREAT
   PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS AZ...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
   EVENING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND
   FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES.

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY...
   SCATTERED TSTMS DOWNSTREAM OF A MINOR SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER WRN LK
   SUPERIOR SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND
   WIND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY AND 30-40 EFFECTIVE SHEAR /MOST FAVORABLY SAMPLED BY
   MODIFIED 00Z MPX RAOB/. AS NOCTURNAL SURFACE COOLING ENSUES AND
   MLCIN INCREASES...TSTM INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.

   ...NRN ROCKIES...
   RIDGE-TOPPING LEAD TSTM CLUSTER PROGRESSING FROM THE SWRN MT MTNS
   TOWARDS CNTRL MT SHOULD POSE MAINLY A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS
   WITHIN A VERY DEEPLY-MIXED ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 40-60 DEG F
   SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. THE POOR QUALITY OF BOUNDARY-LAYER
   MOISTURE ACROSS S-CNTRL/ERN MT /SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S
   TO MIDDLE 40S/ AND DEARTH OF BUOYANCY IN 00Z GGW RAOB SUGGEST THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH JUST AFTER SUNSET. REGENERATIVE TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT TO CNTRL ID MAY CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING
   WITHIN A PLUME OF PW VALUES AROUND 1.25 INCH PER RAOBS/GPS DATA.
   THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL IN ADDITION TO SEVERE
   WIND GIVEN EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KT. 

   ...TN VALLEY/SRN GREAT PLAINS...
   NUMEROUS ONGOING TSTM CLUSTERS MAY HAVE A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. ACTIVITY
   WILL MAINLY BE THERMODYNAMIC-SUPPORTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY WITHIN A WEAK TO MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
   WHILE SOME STORMS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT...THE DEGREE OF
   SHEAR AND SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST TSTM INTENSITY WILL
   PROBABLY WANE. 

   ...AZ...
   25-35 KT MID-LEVEL ELYS SAMPLED IN 00Z TUS/FGZ RAOBS HAVE GENERALLY
   FOSTERED CELLULAR TO SMALL CLUSTER CONVECTIVE MODES WITH SCATTERED
   CONVECTION ACROSS THE STATE. THIS MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
   SUPPORTIVE OF RISKS FOR BOTH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL. STORM-SCALE
   AMALGAMATION COULD YET LEAD TO A POTENTIAL DEEPENING COLD POOL OVER
   PARTS OF THE LOWER DESERTS BUT PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING APPEARS
   TOO LOW TO WARRANT A GREATER CATEGORICAL RISK.

   ..GRAMS.. 06/30/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z