Aug 17, 2017 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Aug 17 00:50:40 UTC 2017 (20170817 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170817 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170817 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 48,411 5,178,283 Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Springfield, MO...Norman, OK...Lawton, OK...
MARGINAL 130,340 10,506,431 Minneapolis, MN...St. Louis, MO...St. Paul, MN...Madison, WI...Springfield, IL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170817 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 3,274 1,023,383 Bloomington, MN...Eagan, MN...Eden Prairie, MN...Burnsville, MN...Lakeville, MN...
2 % 30,195 3,461,827 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Madison, WI...Rochester, MN...Plymouth, MN...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170817 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 45,155 4,155,083 Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Springfield, MO...Norman, OK...Lawton, OK...
5 % 133,203 11,514,726 Minneapolis, MN...St. Louis, MO...St. Paul, MN...Madison, WI...Springfield, IL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170817 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 80,397 5,109,218 Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Springfield, MO...Abilene, TX...Norman, OK...
   SPC AC 170050

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0750 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

   Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE I-44
   CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL
   MISSOURI...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A SMALL
   PORTION OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
   TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
   MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to scattered severe gusts are possible this evening from
   Oklahoma into central Missouri, and this risk will linger into the
   overnight hours as it moves eastward into the Ozarks and eastern
   Oklahoma.  An early evening risk for a tornado will generally be
   confined across parts of southeast Minnesota.

   ...Southern Plains into the lower Missouri Valley...
   Early evening subjective surface mesoanalysis places a
   southeastward-moving front from eastern KS into northwest TX.  A
   very moisture-rich airmass ahead of the boundary has contributed to
   a moderately unstable boundary layer.  Storm development has
   zippered southwest along the front into a linear band this evening. 
   The primary severe risk with the activity over OK northeast into the
   lower MO Valley will be severe gusts resulting in wind damage.  The
   threat for wind damage will slowly decrease but the maintenance of
   35-kt southwesterly 850-mb flow from eastern OK into east-central MO
   will aid in theta-e advection and squall line longevity late into
   tonight.  Additionally, a marginal risk for large hail may continue
   in the short term before nocturnal stabilization serves to weaken
   updraft intensity.

   ...Southern Minnesota and southwest Wisconsin...
   A potent shortwave trough will continue to migrate northeast towards
   the Upper Midwest tonight.  An isolated severe risk may continue in
   the short term but diminish generally after sunset with the loss of
   instability.  In the meantime, enlarged hodographs in a warm frontal
   zone extending from a surface low in southern MN east-southeastward
   into southern WI may support a couple of supercells capable of an
   isolated risk for a weak/brief tornado for another hour or two.

   ..Smith.. 08/17/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z