Mar 30, 2017 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 30 00:50:48 UTC 2017 (20170330 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170330 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170330 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 54,572 3,035,473 Memphis, TN...Springfield, MO...Lake Charles, LA...Monroe, LA...Alexandria, LA...
SLIGHT 132,210 11,223,246 St. Louis, MO...Baton Rouge, LA...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, MS...
MARGINAL 85,766 6,949,262 Kansas City, MO...New Orleans, LA...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Metairie, LA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170330 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
10 % 31,431 1,633,753 Springfield, MO...Lake Charles, LA...Monroe, LA...Alexandria, LA...Opelousas, LA...
5 % 109,467 7,360,125 Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Olathe, KS...Fort Smith, AR...
2 % 72,125 6,375,025 Kansas City, MO...Baton Rouge, LA...Jackson, MS...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170330 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 % 54,464 3,030,007 Memphis, TN...Springfield, MO...Lake Charles, LA...Monroe, LA...Alexandria, LA...
15 % 132,301 11,295,956 St. Louis, MO...Baton Rouge, LA...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, MS...
5 % 77,553 6,366,574 Kansas City, MO...New Orleans, LA...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Metairie, LA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170330 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 151,989 9,457,826 Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Springfield, MO...Olathe, KS...
5 % 97,239 9,755,585 Kansas City, MO...St. Louis, MO...Baton Rouge, LA...Jackson, MS...Overland Park, KS...
   SPC AC 300050

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0750 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

   Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE OZARKS...

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY ALONG
   THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHWEST
   LOUISIANA...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MISSOURI
   VICINITY SOUTH TO THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
   SLIGHT RISK AREA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms will continue tonight from parts of far East
   Texas, extreme eastern Oklahoma, and southeast Kansas eastward into
   the lower and middle Mississippi Valley. Large hail, damaging winds,
   and a few tornadoes are expected.

   ...Discussion...
   Very slow eastward advance of an upper low over Kansas and an
   associated surface storm system is resulting in an increase in
   convective coverage/intensity this evening across parts of Missouri,
   western Arkansas, and into East Texas/western Louisiana.  Afternoon
   destabilization -- which was aided by diurnal heating within a
   relatively cloud-free dry slot which expanded across western
   portions of Missouri and Arkansas -- is fueling the developing
   convection.  

   Updraft organization/severe risk is being aided by favorably
   strengthening/veering flow with height observed across the warm
   sector per area VWPs and evening RAOBs.  While risk persists across
   the lower Mississippi Valley area, severe threat is increasing
   farther north.  The greatest risk this evening is expected to evolve
   across the Ozarks vicinity over the next several hours -- east of a
   southeast Kansas surface low and in proximity to the west-to-east
   warm front where most favorable shear profiles are indicated.  

   Risk will likely continue into the overnight hours, crossing the
   middle and lower Mississippi Valley before diminishing gradually
   late in the period.

   ..Goss.. 03/30/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z