Jul 30, 2016 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jul 30 01:00:34 UTC 2016 (20160730 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160730 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160730 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 70,438 7,819,161 Phoenix, AZ...Denver, CO...Tucson, AZ...Mesa, AZ...Aurora, CO...
MARGINAL 86,194 3,428,450 Colorado Springs, CO...Lubbock, TX...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...Arvada, CO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160730 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160730 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 41,375 5,579,512 Phoenix, AZ...Tucson, AZ...Mesa, AZ...Glendale, AZ...Chandler, AZ...
5 % 114,640 5,623,309 Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lubbock, TX...Lakewood, CO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160730 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 29,327 2,410,312 Denver, CO...Aurora, CO...Thornton, CO...Westminster, CO...Highlands Ranch, CO...
5 % 20,721 1,828,889 Colorado Springs, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...Arvada, CO...Boulder, CO...
   SPC AC 300100

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

   VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CO HIGH
   PLAINS INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN
   AZ...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE TX PANHANDLE...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK IN
   CNTRL AND SRN AZ...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN
   TX INTO SWRN OK...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE ARKLATEX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS EVENING
   ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE
   TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION...AND THE ARKLATEX.

   ...CO HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE...
   A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD DURING THE EVENING
   ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS FEATURE IS AIDING IN STORM DEVELOPMENT
   AND SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED CELLULAR STORMS /INCLUDING A FEW
   SUPERCELLS/.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PROSPECTS FOR AN ORGANIZED
   LINEAR COMPLEX TO MOVE SEWD ARE SUFFICIENTLY LOW TO RENDER AN EARLY
   EVENING RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO BE MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD
   SEVERE GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
   DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING.

   ...CNTRL AND SRN AZ...
   CONGEALING COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN CNTRL AND
   SERN AZ HAS PROPAGATED INTO THE LOWER DESERTS WHERE LARGE
   TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS RESIDE.  AN INVERTED-V PROFILE SAMPLED BY THE
   EVENING AREA RAOBS WILL SUPPORT EVAPORATIVELY ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS
   CAPABLE OF ISOLD SEVERE GUSTS THROUGH THE MID-LATE EVENING AS STORMS
   MOVE GENERALLY SW TOWARDS THE MEXICAN BORDER.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   AN ORGANIZING LINEAR BAND OF STORMS OVER THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE
   RESIDES IN A RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW REGIME BUT STRONG VEERING OF THE
   WIND PROFILE IS RESULTING IN 25-KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE.  AMPLE
   MIXED-LAYER CAPE /1700 J PER KG/ ON THE AMA RAOB AND SUFFICIENT
   MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY AID IN STORMS CONTINUING SEWD ACROSS THE TX
   PANHANDLE REGION THIS EVENING.  ISOLD TO WIDELY SCTD SEVERE GUSTS
   ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE GRADUAL BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION ACTS TO
   WEAKEN STORMS LATER TONIGHT AS THEY MOVE INTO NWRN TX.

   ...ARKLATEX...
   A WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAND OF EARLY-EVENING STORMS OVER ERN OK/SWRN
   AR WILL RESIDE IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT FEATURING DEWPOINTS IN
   THE LOW-MID 70S DEG F.  FAIRLY WEAK WIND PROFILES WILL TEND TO LIMIT
   OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION BUT A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
   BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHES.

   ..SMITH.. 07/30/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z