Aug 1, 2015 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Aug 1 01:00:30 UTC 2015 (20150801 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150801 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150801 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 97,772 2,909,657 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Tallahassee, FL...St. Joseph, MO...Dothan, AL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150801 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150801 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 97,242 2,895,351 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Tallahassee, FL...St. Joseph, MO...Dothan, AL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150801 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 75,508 1,431,046 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...St. Joseph, MO...Council Bluffs, IA...Bellevue, NE...
   SPC AC 010100

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

   VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHWEST SD AND WESTERN
   NEB TO FAR NORTHERN KS...NORTHWEST MO AND SOUTHWEST IA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AL/GA
   TO THE FL PANHANDLE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS WELL AS A SMALL PORTION OF
   THE SOUTHEAST STATES FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
   INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

   ...CENTRAL/SE NEB...SW IA...FAR NW MO...AND EXTREME NRN KS...
   GIVEN THE CONTINUED LACK OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...
   CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ATTENDANT TO AFTERNOON AND
   ONGOING TSTMS IN CENTRAL/ERN NEB AND SOUTHWEST IA SHOULD PROVE
   FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING. 
   RESIDUAL VERY STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS DISCUSSION AREA AND
   STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEB INTO
   NORTHERN KS...AND INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NEB AND NERN NEB/NWRN IA
   WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.  THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN
   A CONTINUED THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...SOME APPROACHING OR
   EXCEEDING 50 KT...WITH A HAIL THREAT TOO.  ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE DURING THE MID TO LATE
   EVENING...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES/LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

   ...NEB PANHANDLE INTO PART OF SOUTHWEST SD...
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION TONIGHT AS A SLY
   LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 30-35 KT...WHILE A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES /8-9 C PER KM/ SPREADS TO THE EAST ATOP THE POLEWARD MOISTURE
   RETURN.  THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION AFTER
   DARK...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG...SUPPORTING TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST SD.  SUFFICIENT
   BULK SHEAR...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   SUGGEST A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND STRONG
   WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  GIVEN THIS REASONING...THE
   MARGINAL SEVERE RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.  

   ...SOUTHEAST AL/GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE...
   A CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING SWWD THROUGH SOUTHWEST GA AND SOUTHEAST AL
   WILL PROGRESS SWWD THIS EVENING INTO AN AIR MASS THAT REMAINS
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN THE PRIMARY
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA.

   ..PETERS.. 08/01/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z