Oct 20, 2017 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Oct 20 00:14:37 UTC 2017 (20171020 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20171020 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20171020 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 19,503 1,020,803 Las Cruces, NM...Alamogordo, NM...Socorro, TX...Deming, NM...Sunland Park, NM...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20171020 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20171020 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 14,699 952,056 Las Cruces, NM...Socorro, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20171020 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 19,405 1,021,081 Las Cruces, NM...Alamogordo, NM...Socorro, TX...Deming, NM...
   SPC AC 200014

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0714 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

   Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
   SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated marginally severe hail and wind gusts remain possible over
   the next couple hours over far southern New Mexico into far west
   Texas.

   ...Southern NM into far West TX...
   Scattered storms are currently ongoing across southern NM, where
   peak heating has been achieved and beneath cool temperature profiles
   aloft. Storms have been producing outflow, which continues to surge
   southward toward the TX border. Per latest radar, a few storms have
   shown the potential for localized marginally severe hail. Other
   cells may continue to form over northern Chihuahua, with an eventual
   merging of outflows into TX. Thus, for a few more hours, a marginal
   wind/hail threat remains.

   ..Jewell.. 10/20/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z