May 31, 2016 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 31 01:00:54 UTC 2016 (20160531 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160531 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160531 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 99,329 1,556,611 Sioux Falls, SD...Abilene, TX...Midland, TX...San Angelo, TX...Grand Island, NE...
MARGINAL 245,138 6,782,278 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Lubbock, TX...Des Moines, IA...Amarillo, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160531 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 17,048 298,081 Abilene, TX...San Angelo, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160531 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 100,003 1,578,991 Sioux Falls, SD...Abilene, TX...Midland, TX...San Angelo, TX...Grand Island, NE...
5 % 243,682 6,776,262 El Paso, TX...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Lubbock, TX...Des Moines, IA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160531 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 100,039 1,567,280 Sioux Falls, SD...Abilene, TX...Midland, TX...San Angelo, TX...Grand Island, NE...
5 % 218,916 6,033,567 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Lubbock, TX...Des Moines, IA...Amarillo, TX...
   SPC AC 310100

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

   VALID 310100Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NRN
   THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PORTION OF WRN
   TX...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SRN
   THROUGH NRN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR STRONG TO
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL OVER A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN THROUGH
   CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATE EVENING.
   OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH MID
   EVENING.

   ...NRN THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS...

   STORMS CONTINUE ALONG AN EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM SCNTRL ND SWD
   THROUGH CNTRL NEB AND NWRN KS. OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO
   EVOLVE INTO LINES. THE 00Z RAOB DATA SHOW THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE
   IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 7.5-8.5 C/KM
   LAPSE RATES.  THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK...THE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE CAPE...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V
   BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND
   AND LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL
   DECREASE BY 03Z-04Z AS THE SFC LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE.

   ...WRN TX...

   ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS
   ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS WRN TX. THE MOST ORGANIZED CLUSTER
   REMAINS JUST EAST OF MIDLAND WHERE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT
   IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. CONVECTIVE-SCALE
   BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL STORM
   DEVELOPMENT BEFORE INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION RESULTING FROM
   NOCTURNAL COOLING CONTRIBUTES TO A DIMINISHING TREND BY 03-04Z.

   ..DIAL.. 05/31/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z