Feb 5, 2016 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Feb 5 00:59:56 UTC 2016 (20160205 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160205 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160205 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160205 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160205 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160205 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 050059

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0659 PM CST THU FEB 04 2016

   VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY UNLIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS U.S.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS PERSIST WITHIN A BROAD CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL FL
   TO ALONG/OFF THE S ATLANTIC COAST. 00Z TBW RAOB SAMPLED THE LARGEST
   ELEVATED BUOYANCY WITHIN THIS REGIME...A MEAGER MUCAPE VALUE NEAR
   500 J/KG. HIGH-LEVEL TEMPERATURES/LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL FOR
   CHARGE SEPARATION AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW-TOPPED
   CONVECTION INLAND. WHILE THE RISK FOR AN ELEVATED TSTM IS NON-ZERO
   OVER THE NEXT HOUR ALONG THE S ATLANTIC COAST...TSTM PROBABILITIES
   AOA 10 PERCENT APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF STREAM
   TONIGHT.

   ..GRAMS.. 02/05/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z