Sep 18, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Sep 18 00:44:33 UTC 2014 (20140918 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140918 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140918 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140918 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140918 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 23,262 2,120,819 Tulsa, OK...Broken Arrow, OK...Fort Smith, AR...Fayetteville, AR...Springdale, AR...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140918 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 23,574 2,130,732 Tulsa, OK...Broken Arrow, OK...Fort Smith, AR...Fayetteville, AR...Springdale, AR...
   SPC AC 180044

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0744 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

   VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT
   PLAINS AND ALONG THE OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS BORDER THIS EVENING.

   SMALL MCS THAT EVOLVED OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU HAS PROGRESSED SSWWD
   INTO FAR NERN OK AND NWRN AR.  LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
   PROPAGATING AT ROUGHLY 15-20KT AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS.
   LATEST WDSSII MESH DATA SUGGESTS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REMAINS WITH
   THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS OVER ERN CRAWFORD COUNTY AR.  HOWEVER...HAIL
   SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE IN INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

   FARTHER NW...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGH
   PLAINS OF NERN CO INTO NWRN KS.  THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
   SPREAD/DEVELOP SEWD WITHIN FAVORABLE SELY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW...THOUGH
   ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.  GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   TROPICAL REMNANTS OF ODILE HAVE PROGRESSED INLAND ACROSS NWRN MEXICO
   AND ARE SPREADING OVER SERN AZ/SRN NM AND FAR WEST TX.  WHILE LAPSE
   RATES ARE POOR WITH THIS SYSTEM 00Z SOUNDING FROM EPZ SUGGESTS
   SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY/SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS. 
   ANOTHER PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL FEATURE IS ADVECTING ACROSS THE TX
   PANHANDLE.  LONG RADAR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOW A WEAKENING CIRCULATION
   JUST WEST OF AMA AND THIS FEATURE MAY BE ENHANCING STRONG CONVECTION
   ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS.  MULTIPLE STORM MERGERS/OUTFLOW SUGGEST
   THIS CLUSTER WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD I-20 BEFORE WEAKENING.

   ..DARROW.. 09/18/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z