Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 250042
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
KY AND WESTERN TN...INCLUDING FAR SOUTHERN IL AND IN...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLAMISS
INTO SOUTHERN IN...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TX
TO THE OH VALLEY...
Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible mainly over
western Tennessee and Kentucky this evening, possibly as far north
as far southern Indiana, with other severe storms extending from the
Arklamiss toward the Ohio Valley.
A strong, progressive shortwave trough will move from the MO Valley
toward the Great Lakes through tonight, with a deepening surface low
pivoting north from near St. Louis toward Lake Superior by Sunday
morning. A zone of pressure falls ahead of a cold front will also
extend southward from this low, with tail end affecting the OH and
TN Valleys this evening. Meanwhile, a narrow ribbon of mid 60s F
dewpoint will be maintained across the lower MS Valley, with a
gradual northward progression across the Enhanced Risk area. Very
strong wind shear exists near the surface trough, supportive of
severe weather including a few tornadoes and damaging winds.
...Lower MS Valley across the TN and OH Valleys...
A vigorous line of severe storms currently extends from the MO
Bootheel southward across far eastern AR, and this activity will
remain a threat for several hours as it moves into western KY and
TN. These areas currently have large-scale support with substantial
pressure falls and a strong low-level jet, in addition to the
moisture and instability axis. Sometime this evening, this activity
will decrease in intensity as the upper support pulls north.
However, a cold front will still progress slowly across the
remainder of LA, MS, and AL, with a few severe reports possible.
For more information, see mesoscale discussions 94 and 95.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z