Apr 21, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Apr 21 00:55:38 UTC 2014 (20140421 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140421 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140421 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140421 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140421 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140421 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 3,499 56,978 Altus, OK...
   SPC AC 210052

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0752 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

   VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR A SMALL PART OF THE RED
   RIVER IN SW OK/NW TX THIS EVENING...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE
   PRIMARY RISK SHOULD WEAKEN BY ABOUT 10-11 PM.

   ...SRN PLAINS...
   A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS ALONG THE RED RIVER IN SW OK/NW TX WILL POSE
   THE GREATEST RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND INTO LATE EVENING.
   THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FED BY A NARROW WEDGE OF MODESTLY
   BUOYANT AIR MASS REMAINING OVER THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF NW TX.
   STABILIZING EFFECTS OF DOWNSTREAM CONVECTION N/E OF THE I-35
   CORRIDOR ARE PRONOUNCED IN 00Z OUN/FWD RAOBS.

   BEYOND THIS LOCALIZED SEVERE AREA...OVERALL RISK IS QUITE MARGINAL.
   A LONE DISCRETE STORM NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE PECOS/RIO GRANDE
   RIVERS SHOULD DISSIPATE SOON AMIDST MINIMAL LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND
   INCREASING MLCIN AFTER DARK. FARTHER N...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
   STORMS HAVE BEEN AIDED BY ASCENT VIA A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
   IMPULSE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE GIVEN A WEAK
   COMBINATION OF SHEAR/BUOYANCY PER 00Z DDC/AMA RAOBS.

   ..GRAMS.. 04/21/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z