May 26, 2013 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 26 01:04:37 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130526 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20130526 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20130526 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20130526 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 143,619 1,239,519 Amarillo, TX...Rapid City, SD...Grand Island, NE...Hobbs, NM...North Platte, NE...
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 143,619 1,239,519 Amarillo, TX...Rapid City, SD...Grand Island, NE...Hobbs, NM...North Platte, NE...
   SPC AC 260100

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

   VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NRN AND
   CNTRL PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME ERN NM INTO WRN
   TX...

   ...NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS AREA...

   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NRN MO WNWWD THROUGH CNTRL AND
   NWRN NEB WITH A DRYLINE FROM WRN NEB SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN
   HIGH PLAINS. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS PERSIST FROM ERN MT INTO SWRN
   ND AND WRN SD WITH MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH
   NEB AND WRN KS. THE 00Z RAOB DATA SHOW AXIS OF 1000-2500 J/KG FROM
   ERN MT SEWD THROUGH NEB...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR GENERALLY FROM 40-50
   KT WHERE SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT EXISTS
   BENEATH 35-45 KT SWLY 500 MB FLOW. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT STORMS MAY
   EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS AND CONTINUE EWD OR
   SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS SUPPORTED BY A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ. 

   FARTHER SOUTH INTO NEB AND KS...CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS MORE
   UNCERTAIN...AND STORM COVERAGE MAY REMAIN MORE LIMITED DUE TO
   INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
   STORMS MAY BE A BIT MORE PERSISTENT IN NEB WHERE STRENGTHENING LLJ
   WILL AUGMENT LIFT NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND WHERE NWD
   EXPANDING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE INITIATING NEW
   UPDRAFTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVENING. 

   ...SRN PLAINS...

   STORMS SPREADING EWD FROM NM INTO WRN TX WILL LIKELY PERSIST NEXT
   2-3 HOURS...SUSTAINED BY EWD ADVANCING COLD POOL. THESE STORMS WILL
   POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL BEFORE
   WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AND
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION STRENGTHENS.

   ..DIAL.. 05/26/2013

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z