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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | ||||||||||||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | ||||||||||||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | ||||||||||||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 260100
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
VALID 260100Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME ERN NM INTO WRN
TX...
...NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS AREA...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NRN MO WNWWD THROUGH CNTRL AND
NWRN NEB WITH A DRYLINE FROM WRN NEB SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN
HIGH PLAINS. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS PERSIST FROM ERN MT INTO SWRN
ND AND WRN SD WITH MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH
NEB AND WRN KS. THE 00Z RAOB DATA SHOW AXIS OF 1000-2500 J/KG FROM
ERN MT SEWD THROUGH NEB...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR GENERALLY FROM 40-50
KT WHERE SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT EXISTS
BENEATH 35-45 KT SWLY 500 MB FLOW. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT STORMS MAY
EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS AND CONTINUE EWD OR
SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS SUPPORTED BY A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ.
FARTHER SOUTH INTO NEB AND KS...CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS MORE
UNCERTAIN...AND STORM COVERAGE MAY REMAIN MORE LIMITED DUE TO
INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
STORMS MAY BE A BIT MORE PERSISTENT IN NEB WHERE STRENGTHENING LLJ
WILL AUGMENT LIFT NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND WHERE NWD
EXPANDING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE INITIATING NEW
UPDRAFTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVENING.
...SRN PLAINS...
STORMS SPREADING EWD FROM NM INTO WRN TX WILL LIKELY PERSIST NEXT
2-3 HOURS...SUSTAINED BY EWD ADVANCING COLD POOL. THESE STORMS WILL
POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL BEFORE
WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AND
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION STRENGTHENS.
..DIAL.. 05/26/2013
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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