Dec 15, 2017 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Dec 15 00:35:27 UTC 2017 (20171215 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20171215 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20171215 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20171215 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20171215 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20171215 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 150035

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0635 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

   Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorm probabilities will remain below 10% tonight.

   ...Discussion...

   Earlier convection that developed over southern NM has moved
   southeast into northern Mexico. This activity evolved within a steep
   lapse rate environment ahead of digging upper trough that will
   continue to sag to lower latitudes into the day2 period. Lightning
   should remain confined to stronger updrafts south of the
   international border tonight.

   ..Darrow.. 12/15/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z