Apr 28, 2016 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Apr 28 00:51:07 UTC 2016 (20160428 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160428 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160428 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 6,463 1,410,133 Louisville, KY...New Albany, IN...Jeffersonville, IN...Jeffersontown, KY...Elizabethtown, KY...
MARGINAL 95,943 11,995,728 Indianapolis, IN...St. Louis, MO...Cincinnati, OH...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Springfield, IL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160428 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 39,748 3,537,907 Lexington-Fayette, KY...Louisville, KY...Columbia, MO...Quincy, IL...New Albany, IN...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160428 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 6,510 1,418,950 Louisville, KY...New Albany, IN...Jeffersonville, IN...Jeffersontown, KY...Elizabethtown, KY...
5 % 81,463 6,510,488 Lexington-Fayette, KY...Springfield, IL...Columbia, MO...Decatur, IL...Champaign, IL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160428 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 91,131 12,600,615 Indianapolis, IN...St. Louis, MO...Cincinnati, OH...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Louisville, KY...
   SPC AC 280051

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0751 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

   VALID 280100Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR A SMALL PORTION OF CENTRAL
   KY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY EWD INTO
   PARTS OF IND/KY/TN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO STRONG SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FROM
   THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY.

   ...LOWER OH VALLEY...
   A QLCS WILL PROGRESS ENEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL KY EARLY THIS
   EVENING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING
   THROUGH THE BASE OF THE N-CNTRL U.S. LARGE-SCALE TROUGH.  AN OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER TSTM ACTIVITY ARCS WWD INTO THE SRN PORTION OF
   THE LINE NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER.  AS SUCH...LIMITED BUOYANCY VIA AIR
   EMANATING FROM CONVECTIVELY PROCESSED ORIGINS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT
   THE QLCS FROM TRACKING EWD INTO ERN KY WHILE POSING A MORE
   SUBSTANTIVE WIND THREAT.  

   FARTHER W OVER SRN IL...WEAK SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WARM
   FRONT WHERE LOCAL ENHANCEMENT TO LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY AUGMENT A
   MARGINAL WIND/HAIL AND PERHAPS A LINGERING RISK FOR A TORNADO FOR
   THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  DIMINISHING INSTABILITY OWING TO DIURNAL HEAT
   LOSS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO WEAKEN THIS ACTIVITY BY MID EVENING.  

   ...MID MS VALLEY...
   ARCING BAND OF STORMS OVER SERN IA/NERN MO WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
   NEWD TOWARDS THE RIVER IN THE SHORT TERM.  A FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED
   OVER S-CNTRL IL WNWWD INTO NERN MO WILL LIKELY REMAIN STATIONARY
   IMPEDING THE POLEWARD FLUX OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.  AS
   SUCH...A MARGINAL RISK FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS IS POSSIBLE THIS
   EVENING WITH THIS THREAT WANING AS BUOYANCY DECREASES AND STORMS
   MOVE INTO A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OVER FAR SERN IA/W-CNTRL IL.

   ..SMITH.. 04/28/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z