Oct 20, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Oct 20 00:56:46 UTC 2014 (20141020 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141020 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141020 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141020 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141020 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141020 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 200056

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0756 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

   VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
   TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS.

   ...SOUTHERN AZ/NM TO WEST TX...
   AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OVER
   NORTHWEST MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
   THIS EVENING PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ/SOUTHERN NM INTO FAR
   WEST TX...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POTENTIALLY INCREASING
   LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/OK AND THE OZARKS.
   WHILE A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
   PORTIONS OF AZ/NM AND/OR FAR SOUTHWEST TX...MULTIPLE FACTORS
   INCLUDING THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RELATIVELY MODEST DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR IMPLY ONLY A VERY LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL THE REMAINDER
   OF THE NIGHT.

   ..GUYER.. 10/20/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z