Dec 4, 2016 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Dec 4 00:58:36 UTC 2016 (20161204 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20161204 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20161204 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 38,812 4,455,216 Corpus Christi, TX...Brownsville, TX...Lafayette, LA...Beaumont, TX...Lake Charles, LA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20161204 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 16,355 1,502,549 Lafayette, LA...Beaumont, TX...Lake Charles, LA...Port Arthur, TX...Galveston, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20161204 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 29,543 3,251,652 Corpus Christi, TX...Brownsville, TX...Lafayette, LA...Beaumont, TX...Lake Charles, LA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20161204 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 23,373 2,869,763 Corpus Christi, TX...Brownsville, TX...Baytown, TX...Harlingen, TX...League City, TX...
   SPC AC 040058

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0658 PM CST SAT DEC 03 2016

   VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS
   AND IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS EVENING AND
   TONIGHT.  HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEXAS
   COAST.

   ...TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...
   THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A BATCH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS
   CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.  THIS MOISTURE IS
   ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE LIKELY BEING
   SUPPORTED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A
   LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE TEXAS
   COASTAL PLAINS ARE IN THE 50S FAHRENHEIT WITH LOWER TO MID 60S
   ACROSS FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF LOUISIANA. 
   AS A RESULT...WEAK INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN
   SOUTH TEXAS WHERE THE 00Z BROWNSVILLE SOUNDING SHOWS MLCAPE NEAR
   1500 J/KG.

   IN SPITE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY...WSR-88D VWPS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST
   HAVE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR GENERALLY
   ESTIMATED IN THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A
   MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AS CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
   LOWER TO MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THIS EVENING AS IS SUGGESTED BY THE
   LATEST VERSION OF THE HRRR. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS
   AND HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY LINE SEGMENTS THAT CAN BECOME
   ORGANIZED. DUE TO THE WEAKNESS IN INSTABILITY ALONG THE MIDDLE TO
   UPPER TEXAS COAST...WILL TRIM THE MARGINAL RISK AREA TO INCLUDE ONLY
   AREAS NEAR THE COAST OF TEXAS.  THE NAM AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT
   CONVECTION THAT IS ONGOING IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WILL GRADUALLY
   SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
   WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
   PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF
   THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY RESULT IN A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT THERE
   AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HAVE EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK AREA ACROSS MUCH OF
   SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

   ..BROYLES.. 12/04/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z