Aug 29, 2016 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Aug 29 01:01:07 UTC 2016 (20160829 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160829 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160829 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 19,195 396,528 Fergus Falls, MN...Brainerd, MN...Bemidji, MN...Alexandria, MN...
MARGINAL 87,716 4,617,410 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Fargo, ND...Duluth, MN...Bloomington, MN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160829 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 47,243 869,488 Fargo, ND...Grand Forks, ND...Moorhead, MN...West Fargo, ND...West Fargo, MN...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160829 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 18,714 392,833 Fergus Falls, MN...Brainerd, MN...Bemidji, MN...Alexandria, MN...
5 % 77,753 2,509,428 Fargo, ND...Plymouth, MN...Brooklyn Park, MN...Coon Rapids, MN...Maple Grove, MN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160829 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 19,101 394,850 Fergus Falls, MN...Brainerd, MN...Bemidji, MN...Alexandria, MN...
5 % 87,390 4,618,439 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Fargo, ND...Duluth, MN...Bloomington, MN...
   SPC AC 290101

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0801 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

   VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL MN...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO MN AND
   FAR NWRN WI AND THE WRN U.P. OF MICHIGAN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
   MIDWEST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

   ...ERN DAKOTAS INTO MN...
   ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE N OF A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT
   ORIENTED NW-SE ACROSS NRN MN...WHILE A PAIR OF SEPARATE AND WIDELY
   SPACED DISCRETE CELLS HAVE FORMED OVER NWRN MN AND NERN SD.  STEEP
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OBSERVED IN THE 00Z ABR SOUNDING SHOULD SLOWLY
   ADVECT EWD...AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER
   AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   IS POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD FRONT ENTERING N-CNTRL ND...BUT THE BULK OF
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A VEERING LLJ NEAR
   THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LATE EVENING.  EVOLUTION TO A
   LONGER-LIVED CLUSTER OR SMALL MCS MOVING ESEWD ACROSS NRN/CNTRL MN
   STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL
   PRIMARILY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS.

   ..ROGERS.. 08/29/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z