SPC AC 040031
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 PM CDT FRI JUL 03 2009
VALID 040100Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN MT...
...CNTRL PLNS...
TWO PRIMARY ZONES OF TSTM INITIATION OCCURRED THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ONE ZONE EXISTED INVOF A WEAK H7-H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
WITHIN A MOIST UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS WRN/CNTRL NEB. THE OTHER
ALONG A WEAK SFC LOW/WRMFNT WITHIN A SUB-TROPICAL PLUME OF MID-LVL
MOISTURE ACROSS ERN CO AND CNTRL/NRN KS.
00Z LBF/OAX SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CAPPING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
HOSTILE TO SUPPORT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. COMPARATIVELY
MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FARTHER TO THE S WILL SUPPORT EVENING
MULTICELLS/ISOLD SUPERCELLS AMIDST 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 40-50
KTS OF WLY SHEAR. PRIMARY SVR THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DMGG
WIND GUSTS.
LATER THIS EVE...LOW/MID-LVL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL INCREASE...NORTH
OF BOTH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE WRMFNT ALONG THE NOSE OF A 45-50
KT SSWLY LLJ. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE AN OVERNIGHT MCS ACROSS
SCNTRL/SERN NEB...NCNTRL/NERN KS...NWRN MO AND SWRN IA. A FEW
STORMS MAY YIELD LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT THE PRIMARY SVR
THREATS SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO THIS EVE.
...ERN MT...
MULTICELLS/ISOLD SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED ACROSS SRN SK LATE AFTN ALONG
SRN EXTENT OF A MID-LVL WAVE MIGRATING ACROSS CNTRL SK. ACTIVITY
WAS PROGRESSING SEWD THROUGH AN INSTABILITY AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY
1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND RELATIVELY STEEP HIGH-LVL LAPSE RATES.
STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH LATE EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO
ECNTRL MT WITH LARGE HAIL AND SVR WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
..RACY.. 07/04/2009
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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