Mar 29, 2015 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Mar 29 01:00:15 UTC 2015 (20150329 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150329 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150329 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 13,951 128,197 Bismarck, ND...Mandan, ND...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150329 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150329 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 14,050 128,341 Bismarck, ND...Mandan, ND...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150329 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 290100

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

   VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS A SMALL
   PART OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
   DAKOTA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ADVANCING
   TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
   NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MISSOURI VALLEY REGION.  A FEW OF THE STORMS
   COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
   CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

   ...NORTHERN PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY REGION...
   A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN MT PER
   MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY...WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THIS FORECAST
   PERIOD WITH MORE OF AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH
   PLAINS...REACHING FAR WESTERN MN TO NORTHERN NEB BY 12Z.  A COLD
   FRONT ATTENDANT TO THIS TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE NORTH AND
   CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM WESTERN MN THROUGH
   ERN NEB TO WEST-CENTRAL KS BY 12Z.  THIS FRONT WILL OVERTAKE A WARM
   FRONT...WHICH EXTENDED SWD THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL NEB
   EARLY THIS EVENING.  FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MIDLEVEL MOISTURE...
   ATTENDANT TO THE ERN MT TROUGH...WILL SPREAD EWD ATOP AN INCREASE IN
   LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG A STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ...EXTENDING FROM THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY.  THESE FACTORS SHOULD FAVOR THE
   CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FROM WEST-EAST THIS FORECAST
   PERIOD.

   THE 00Z SOUNDING AT BIS INDICATED A LAYER OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 700-825
   MB ATOP A SHALLOW SURFACE STABLE LAYER.  ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   BECOMES MORE STABLE WITH EWD EXTENT...THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
   MOVING QUICKLY EWD INTO CENTRAL ND AND PORTIONS OF NRN SD COULD
   STILL PRODUCE A STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUST PER THE AFOREMENTIONED
   LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC DRY LAYER.  OTHERWISE...TSTMS SHOULD BECOME
   MORE ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WITH EWD EXTENT AND SEVERE THREAT WILL
   EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE.

   ..PETERS.. 03/29/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z