Oct 1, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Oct 1 00:54:28 UTC 2014 (20141001 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141001 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141001 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141001 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141001 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141001 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 35,752 989,810 Lincoln, NE...Salina, KS...Manhattan, KS...Hutchinson, KS...Newton, KS...
   SPC AC 010054

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0754 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

   VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
   ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.

   ...CNTRL/ERN KS...SERN NEB...FAR NWRN OK...
   SCATTERED STORMS PERSIST FROM CENTRAL KS INTO SERN NEB WHERE DAYTIME
   HEATING MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY. OTHER STORMS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED
   OVER SWRN KS/NWRN OK ALONG THE STALLED DRYLINE. 

   WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...AND POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES PER 00Z
   SOUNDINGS...STORMS MAY HAVE TROUBLE BECOMING SEVERE.
   HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR
   CELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL. WARM ADVECTION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE
   VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW-REINFORCED BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN KS WILL
   MAINTAIN LIFT AND SCATTERED STORMS THERE TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED
   HAIL POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO S CNTRL KS/NWRN OK MAINLY THIS
   EVENING BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO SWLY TONIGHT.

   ..JEWELL.. 10/01/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z