Aug 23, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Aug 23 00:47:29 UTC 2014 (20140823 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140823 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140823 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 109,667 2,337,569 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Sioux City, IA...Council Bluffs, IA...Bellevue, NE...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140823 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 73,148 615,814 Grand Island, NE...Kearney, NE...North Platte, NE...Norfolk, NE...Hastings, NE...
2 % 92,143 2,006,958 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Council Bluffs, IA...Bellevue, NE...Manhattan, KS...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140823 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 108,797 2,291,158 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Sioux City, IA...Council Bluffs, IA...Bellevue, NE...
5 % 846,709 103,296,955 Chicago, IL...Philadelphia, PA...Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140823 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 108,206 2,324,014 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Sioux City, IA...Council Bluffs, IA...Bellevue, NE...
5 % 844,301 103,150,373 Chicago, IL...Philadelphia, PA...Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...
   SPC AC 230047

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0747 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

   VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
   TONIGHT.  THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. 
   ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

   ...CENTRAL PLAINS...

   WELL DEFINED UPPER VORT IS LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS INTO
   SWRN CO.  CORRIDOR OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT IS NOW SPREADING ACROSS
   THE HIGH PLAINS AND APPEARS TO BE AIDING ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION
   OVER ERN CO/WRN KS.  SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE EVOLVING
   ACROSS THIS REGION WITH ONE MATURING COMPLEX OVER ERN CO AND A
   NOTABLE MCV OVER LINCOLN COUNTY.  ANOTHER POSSIBLE MCV IS FORMING
   ALONG THE WRN END OF A COMPLEX OVER SRN DECATUR COUNTY KS.  BOTH OF
   THESE COMPLEXES ARE LIFTING NNEWD AT ROUGHLY 35KT AND WILL SOON
   SPREAD INTO SRN NEB.  LONE SUPERCELL HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG THE
   KS/NEB BORDER WITHIN FAVORABLY MOIST/SHEARED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. 
   ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE.  LATER TONIGHT LLJ
   WILL INCREASE ACROSS KS/NEB AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD DRIVE MULTIPLE
   THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS NEB INTO SD.  LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
   REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.

   ...ELSEWHERE...

   ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS ERN ID FOR THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...AIDED IN LARGE PART BY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND LINGERING
   INSTABILITY.  OTHER ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS A BROAD
   SWATH OF THE MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY WITHIN WEAK WARM ADVECTION
   REGIME.  LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE MID
   MS/OH VALLEY REGION AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE SUFFICIENT
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS.

   ..DARROW.. 08/23/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z