Jan 16, 2017 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jan 16 00:50:28 UTC 2017 (20170116 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170116 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170116 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 46,367 10,165,718 Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
MARGINAL 32,065 2,297,786 San Antonio, TX...Bryan, TX...San Marcos, TX...New Braunfels, TX...Schertz, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170116 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 40,610 9,859,636 Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
2 % 31,292 2,317,623 San Antonio, TX...San Marcos, TX...New Braunfels, TX...Sherman, TX...Schertz, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170116 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 44,503 9,560,842 Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
5 % 32,454 2,862,771 San Antonio, TX...Bryan, TX...San Marcos, TX...New Braunfels, TX...Schertz, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170116 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 27,384 3,392,664 Austin, TX...Waco, TX...Killeen, TX...Round Rock, TX...Temple, TX...
5 % 15,762 4,889,498 San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Irving, TX...
   SPC AC 160050

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0650 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

   Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
   THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH
   CENTRAL TX THROUGH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Threat for severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging wind and a
   few tornadoes will persist this evening primarily from south central
   through north central Texas. A more marginal threat for mainly
   damaging wind and perhaps a brief tornado will evolve across
   southeast Oklahoma later tonight.

   ...South central through north central Texas...

   Early this evening a warm front stretches from northeast through
   north central TX. A pacific cold front extends from west central TX
   to just north of Del Rio. Storms have evolved into a broken line
   with bowing segments and a few supercells from just northeast of Del
   Rio through west central TX. Other discrete supercell storms have
   developed in the warm sector across central through north central
   TX, and this activity may have increased in association with what
   appears to be an eastward-propagating gravity wave. Deep-layer wind
   profiles accompanying the ejecting shortwave trough with 40-50 kt
   effective bulk shear and large 0-1 km hodographs associated with the
   strengthening low-level jet will continue to favor organized storm
   structures. The warm sector remains marginally to moderately
   unstable with mucape from 500 J/kg over north central TX to around
   1200 J/kg farther south. Greatest tornado potential may occur as
   discrete supercells developing over north central TX move north and
   interact with the warm front. A few tornadoes may also occur with
   supercells embedded within the eastward-advancing squall line,
   especially with more discrete activity on the southern end.
   Otherwise, damaging wind and large hail remain possible as broken
   squall line continues into central and south central TX this
   evening.

   ..Dial.. 01/16/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z