San Antonio, TX...San Marcos, TX...New Braunfels, TX...Sherman, TX...Schertz, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
San Antonio, TX...Bryan, TX...San Marcos, TX...New Braunfels, TX...Schertz, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Austin, TX...Waco, TX...Killeen, TX...Round Rock, TX...Temple, TX...
San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Irving, TX...
SPC AC 160050
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017
Valid 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL TX THROUGH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
Threat for severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging wind and a
few tornadoes will persist this evening primarily from south central
through north central Texas. A more marginal threat for mainly
damaging wind and perhaps a brief tornado will evolve across
southeast Oklahoma later tonight.
...South central through north central Texas...
Early this evening a warm front stretches from northeast through
north central TX. A pacific cold front extends from west central TX
to just north of Del Rio. Storms have evolved into a broken line
with bowing segments and a few supercells from just northeast of Del
Rio through west central TX. Other discrete supercell storms have
developed in the warm sector across central through north central
TX, and this activity may have increased in association with what
appears to be an eastward-propagating gravity wave. Deep-layer wind
profiles accompanying the ejecting shortwave trough with 40-50 kt
effective bulk shear and large 0-1 km hodographs associated with the
strengthening low-level jet will continue to favor organized storm
structures. The warm sector remains marginally to moderately
unstable with mucape from 500 J/kg over north central TX to around
1200 J/kg farther south. Greatest tornado potential may occur as
discrete supercells developing over north central TX move north and
interact with the warm front. A few tornadoes may also occur with
supercells embedded within the eastward-advancing squall line,
especially with more discrete activity on the southern end.
Otherwise, damaging wind and large hail remain possible as broken
squall line continues into central and south central TX this
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z