Dec 18, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Dec 18 00:43:04 UTC 2014 (20141218 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141218 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141218 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141218 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141218 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141218 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 180043

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0643 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

   VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARKLATEX REGIONS.  A FEW STORMS MAY FORM OVER
   PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN U.S. THROUGH
   EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
   MOVE ACROSS OK AND INTO MO OZARKS BY DAYBREAK.  A RESIDUAL FRONTAL
   ZONE LOCATED OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE
   MIDDLE TX COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT.  WEAK ELEVATED
   CAPE TO THE N OF THE BOUNDARY AND LOCATED WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYER
   BELT /50 KT LLJ/ WILL SUPPORT AN INTERMITTENT THREAT FOR ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF CNTRL TX NWD THROUGH ERN OK AND WRN AR
   AND INTO SERN KS AND SWRN MO.

   ..SMITH.. 12/18/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z