Apr 27, 2015 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Apr 27 00:59:40 UTC 2015 (20150427 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150427 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150427 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 79,751 13,084,489 San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...
SLIGHT 105,223 9,545,153 Houston, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Shreveport, LA...Pasadena, TX...
MARGINAL 50,382 2,260,857 Oklahoma City, OK...Norman, OK...San Angelo, TX...Midwest City, OK...Monroe, LA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150427 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 10,409 841,399 Waco, TX...Killeen, TX...Temple, TX...Copperas Cove, TX...Cleburne, TX...
10 % 21,638 1,202,295 Waco, TX...Killeen, TX...Temple, TX...Georgetown, TX...Copperas Cove, TX...
5 % 82,094 17,756,373 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...
2 % 103,511 4,684,932 Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Shreveport, LA...Beaumont, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150427 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 % 60,274 10,646,817 San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
15 % 109,890 11,995,998 Houston, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Shreveport, LA...
5 % 40,564 1,085,263 Lawton, OK...San Angelo, TX...Monroe, LA...Duncan, OK...Ruston, LA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150427 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 32,051 6,720,004 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
30 % 50,870 10,974,315 San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...
15 % 135,198 12,009,721 Houston, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Shreveport, LA...Pasadena, TX...
5 % 49,286 1,905,532 Oklahoma City, OK...Norman, OK...San Angelo, TX...Midwest City, OK...Monroe, LA...
   SPC AC 270059

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0759 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

   VALID 270100Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR MUCH OF CNTRL...NORTH...AND
   EAST TX...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR FAR SRN OK...WRN LA...AND
   CNTRL AND EAST TX...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR CNTRL OK AND THE ARKLATEX
   SWD INTO S TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH THE STORMS SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST
   TOWARD THE TEXAS GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY.  VERY LARGE
   HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

   ...SRN PLAINS...
   SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE ONGOING FROM CNTRL TX NWWD INTO THE
   TX PANHANDLE. GREATEST TORNADO RISK APPEARS TO REMAIN FOCUSED OVER
   PARTS OF CNTRL TX...WHERE SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING HAVE DEVELOPED AND
   PROGRESSED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. RICHER MOISTURE /MID-UPPER 60S
   SFC DEWPOINTS/ CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THIS AREA FROM THE S...AND
   AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR A TORNADO
   THREAT THIS EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

   STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT VIA THE PACIFIC FRONT OVERTAKING THE
   DRYLINE...AND DCVA ACCOMPANYING THE SRN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH...WILL
   PROMOTE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS...WHICH COULD STRETCH AS FAR S AS
   THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. PRIMARY THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO
   DMGG WINDS...ALTHOUGH SPORADIC LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED
   LINE-EMBEDDED TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE MCS SHOULD MOVE INTO
   WRN LA BY 27/12Z.

   ..ROGERS.. 04/27/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z