Feb 25, 2018 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Feb 25 00:42:22 UTC 2018 (20180225 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180225 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180225 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 29,090 3,461,066 Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Evansville, IN...Clarksville, TN...Jackson, TN...
SLIGHT 57,535 6,756,629 Louisville, KY...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Murfreesboro, TN...Franklin, TN...Hendersonville, TN...
MARGINAL 153,902 19,721,996 Houston, TX...Columbus, OH...Cincinnati, OH...Birmingham, AL...Jackson, MS...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20180225 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 10,745 1,535,455 Jackson, TN...Bartlett, TN...Southaven, MS...Collierville, TN...Germantown, TN...
10 % 11,004 1,627,074 Memphis, TN...Jackson, TN...Bartlett, TN...Southaven, MS...Collierville, TN...
5 % 66,410 7,777,107 Nashville, TN...Louisville, KY...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Evansville, IN...Clarksville, TN...
2 % 119,377 11,813,898 Cincinnati, OH...Birmingham, AL...Jackson, MS...Knoxville, TN...Huntsville, AL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20180225 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 % 29,118 3,474,454 Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Evansville, IN...Clarksville, TN...Jackson, TN...
15 % 58,600 6,744,237 Louisville, KY...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Murfreesboro, TN...Bowling Green, KY...Franklin, TN...
5 % 155,461 20,091,434 Houston, TX...Columbus, OH...Cincinnati, OH...Birmingham, AL...Jackson, MS...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20180225 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 250042

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0642 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

   Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
   KY AND WESTERN TN...INCLUDING FAR SOUTHERN IL AND IN...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLAMISS
   INTO SOUTHERN IN...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TX
   TO THE OH VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible mainly over
   western Tennessee and Kentucky this evening, possibly as far north
   as far southern Indiana, with other severe storms extending from the
   Arklamiss toward the Ohio Valley.

   ...Synopsis...
   A strong, progressive shortwave trough will move from the MO Valley
   toward the Great Lakes through tonight, with a deepening surface low
   pivoting north from near St. Louis toward Lake Superior by Sunday
   morning. A zone of pressure falls ahead of a cold front will also
   extend southward from this low, with tail end affecting the OH and
   TN Valleys this evening. Meanwhile, a narrow ribbon of mid 60s F
   dewpoint will be maintained across the lower MS Valley, with a
   gradual northward progression across the Enhanced Risk area. Very
   strong wind shear exists near the surface trough, supportive of
   severe weather including a few tornadoes and damaging winds.

   ...Lower MS Valley across the TN and OH Valleys...
   A vigorous line of severe storms currently extends from the MO
   Bootheel southward across far eastern AR, and this activity will
   remain a threat for several hours as it moves into western KY and
   TN. These areas currently have large-scale support with substantial
   pressure falls and a strong low-level jet, in addition to the
   moisture and instability axis. Sometime this evening, this activity
   will decrease in intensity as the upper support pulls north.
   However, a cold front will still progress slowly across the
   remainder of LA, MS, and AL, with a few severe reports possible.

   For more information, see mesoscale discussions 94 and 95.

   ..Jewell.. 02/25/2018

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z