Jan 30, 2015 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jan 30 05:38:03 UTC 2015 (20150130 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150130 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150130 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150130 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150130 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150130 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 300538

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1138 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
   NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS SRN CA FRIDAY AS A
   SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS IN WRN AZ. SFC DEWPOINTS TO THE EAST OF THE
   TROUGH ACROSS SRN AZ SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S F. AS SFC
   TEMPS WARM DURING THE DAY ACROSS SRN AZ...WEAK INSTABILITY IS
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE VICINITY OF TUSCON AND SWD INTO NWRN
   MEXICO. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD TAKE PLACE ALONG THE
   INSTABILITY CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...OVERSPREADS THE
   REGION. THIS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
   EVENING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK
   INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
   ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
   EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

   ..BROYLES/ROGERS.. 01/30/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z