Apr 28, 2015 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Apr 28 06:03:23 UTC 2015 (20150428 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150428 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150428 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 78,018 19,545,235 New Orleans, LA...Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150428 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 77,452 19,504,240 New Orleans, LA...Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150428 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 77,669 19,512,141 New Orleans, LA...Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150428 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 77,294 19,489,601 New Orleans, LA...Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...
   SPC AC 280603

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0103 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF
   COASTAL REGION AND MUCH OF FL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY.  ISOLATED SEVERE
   STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SRN-STREAM UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS EARLY TUE IS FORECAST TO
   PROGRESS EWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
   REGION WHILE GRADUALLY EVOLVING INTO AN OPEN WAVE.  AS THIS
   OCCURS...A WEAK/ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD
   ACROSS THE NRN GULF...ALONG AN OUTFLOW-REINFORCED BAROCLINIC ZONE. 
   AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THIS REGION...LARGE SCALE ASCENT --
   FOCUSED INVOF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY -- WILL SUPPORT
   WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

   ...CENTRAL AND ERN GULF COASTAL STATES...
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
   THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN GULF AND ADJACENT GULF COASTAL
   STATES.  WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER ARE
   FORECAST TO LARGELY INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL NEAR AND JUST
   N OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE -- PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR OR S OF THE GULF
   COAST...AND THUS SEVERE RISK SHOULD BE LARGELY LIMITED ACROSS MUCH
   OF THE REGION.

   GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WOULD SEEM MOST LIKELY S OF THE
   FRONT OVER THE GULF AND INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA...BUT AN
   EXPANDING CLUSTER OF STORMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS NOW EVOLVING
   OVER THE NRN GULF WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS FL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. 
   AS A RESULT...LIMITED DESTABILIZATION SHOULD -- SIMILAR TO AREAS
   FARTHER N -- HINDER OVERALL SEVERE RISK.  THUS -- WHILE THE
   STRONGEST CELLS ACROSS THE AREA MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS/HAIL
   AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO...WILL CARRY ONLY MARGINAL RISK THIS
   FORECAST.

   ..GOSS.. 04/28/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z