Jun 27, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jun 27 06:00:51 UTC 2016 (20160627 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160627 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160627 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 93,688 3,569,614 Denver, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...Thornton, CO...
MARGINAL 341,518 28,256,363 Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Atlanta, GA...Colorado Springs, CO...Wichita, KS...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160627 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 62,461 1,261,412 Aurora, CO...Greeley, CO...Cheyenne, WY...Parker, CO...Brighton, CO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160627 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 93,504 3,569,010 Denver, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...Thornton, CO...
5 % 341,910 28,246,408 Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Atlanta, GA...Colorado Springs, CO...Wichita, KS...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160627 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 55,432 455,008 Greeley, CO...North Platte, NE...Evans, CO...Scottsbluff, NE...Sterling, CO...
15 % 72,995 3,206,762 Denver, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...Thornton, CO...
5 % 133,265 3,473,607 Colorado Springs, CO...Wichita, KS...Pueblo, CO...Boulder, CO...Casper, WY...
   SPC AC 270600

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHEAST WY AND
   WEST/SOUTHWEST NEB THROUGH NORTHEAST/EASTERN CO INTO WESTERN KS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK AREA
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO NORTHWEST
   OK...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
   APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN PART OF THE CENTRAL
   GULF COAST STATES TO ARKLATEX REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...SOME VERY
   LARGE...AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE
   THREAT EXTENDING TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
   KANSAS TO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH THIS EVENING.  MARGINALLY
   SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
   APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...NORTHERN
   PORTION OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO ARKANSAS...EASTERN
   OKLAHOMA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNER STATES
   TODAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FROM THE NORTHERN
   ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY...AS A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES
   REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.  AT THE SURFACE...THE TRAILING PORTION OF A
   COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
   TROUGH...WILL ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH NEB AND SHOULD REACH THE NEB/KS
   BORDER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...FARTHER TO THE EAST AND
   SOUTHEAST...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN
   NY/PA...EASTERN KY TO WESTERN TN BY THIS AFTERNOON.

   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO CENTRAL PARTS OF NEB/KS TO NORTHWEST OK...

   EASTERLY SURFACE AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
   WILL RESULT IN A GREATER UPSLOPE COMPONENT /COMPARED TO SUNDAY IN
   THIS REGION/ INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST WY AND
   NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST CO.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER MOISTURE TO
   SPREAD WEST TOWARD THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND COMBINED WITH STRONG
   SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-9 C
   PER KM/ SHOULD RESULT IN GREATER DESTABILIZATION THAN WAS OBSERVED
   ON SUNDAY.  MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.  THE FAVORABLE MOIST...POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE
   FLOW INTO SOUTHEAST WY AND NORTHEAST CO THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH
   SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE
   REACHING THE WESTERN PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA BY PEAK HEATING
   WILL ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE...
   STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.  LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS VEERING AND
   STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT /500-MB WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 40 KT/
   WILL RESULT IN STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50+ KT SUPPORTING
   SUPERCELLS.  THESE FACTORS WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL...SOME
   SIGNIFICANT...AND DAMAGING WINDS AS INITIAL HIGH-BASED STORMS
   DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  HIGH-RES MODELS
   SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO THE EVENING /POTENTIALLY WITH
   UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT/ AS A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
   STRENGTHENS AND A STORM CLUSTER MOVES THROUGH WESTERN KS AND PERHAPS
   REACHING NORTHWEST OK.  DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
   THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

   ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO TN VALLEY/NORTHERN PART OF
   CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...AR...EASTERN OK AND FAR NORTHEAST TX...

   A HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS /PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
   1.5-2.0 INCHES/ WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS TO GULF COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY...AND EXPAND
   EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF THE
   NY/PA TO KY/TN COLD FRONT.  DESPITE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS
   MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING/STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION.  FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ATTENDANT TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
   AMPLIFYING GREAT LAKES TROUGH...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD
   FRONT...AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL LIKELY PROVE FAVORABLE FOR STORM
   DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE
   MINIMAL DUE TO WEAK BULK SHEAR...THOUGH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   AND WATER LOADING OF DOWNDRAFTS SHOULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
   SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.  THIS MARGINAL
   SEVERE-WEATHER RISK SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

   ..PETERS/BUNTING.. 06/27/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z