Feb 12, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Feb 12 05:34:29 UTC 2016 (20160212 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160212 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160212 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160212 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160212 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160212 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 120534

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1134 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST
   WASHINGTON.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A BROAD TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
   WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
   COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS. ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...AN UPPER
   RIDGE WILL DEAMPLIFY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST COAST AND TRACKS EAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS THE
   UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   STEEPEN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
   WA IN MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

   ..LEITMAN/ROGERS.. 02/12/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z