Apr 19, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Apr 19 05:49:37 UTC 2014 (20140419 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140419 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140419 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140419 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140419 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140419 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 190546

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1246 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   CORRECTED TORNADO PROBABILITY GRAPHIC

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG FLORIDA AND GEORGIA
   ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND
   ADJACENT SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
   KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.  SOME OF THESE COULD APPROACH OR
   BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
   THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE
   PACIFIC WILL REMAIN SPLIT ACROSS THE U.S...WITH ONE ZONAL BRANCH
   ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES REMAINING A BIT STRONGER AND MORE
   PROGRESSIVE THAN THE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED BUT WEAKER BRANCH
   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

   IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST OF A PAIR OF PROMINENT PERTURBATIONS WITHIN
   THE SOUTHERN BRANCH...CONSIDERABLE DRYING IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE GULF COAST REGION INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  HOWEVER...WEAK TO
   MODEST MOISTURE RETURN IS UNDERWAY IN A NARROW PLUME ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM PERTURBATION...WHICH
   IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MIGRATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR
   CORNER STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU TODAY AND TONIGHT.  SOME
   MOISTENING ALSO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LEE
   SURFACE TROUGH...AND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ONE IN A
   SERIES OF VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES.

   OTHERWISE...MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION WILL REMAIN
   SEASONABLY LOW...WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE
   TIME OF YEAR.

   ...SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...
   MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT A BAND OF ENHANCED FORCING FOR UPWARD
   VERTICAL MOTION...AND ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SPREADING OFF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
   ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS DURING THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME.  IN ITS
   WAKE...MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...ASSOCIATED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
   DRYING...AND A VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE WESTERLY
   COMPONENT LIKELY WILL DIMINISH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. 
   HOWEVER...NORTH OF THE MIAMI AREA...BETWEEN PALM BEACH AND
   MELBOURNE...MID-LEVEL COOLING AND ASCENT ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
   THE UPPER LOW COULD CONTRIBUTE TO NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING
   THE AFTERNOON.  INLAND ADVANCEMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE STILL APPEARS
   UNLIKELY...THOUGH...AND STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE LIMITED
   TO AREAS EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

   MEANWHILE...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE /WITH 500
   MB TEMPS OF -16 TO -18C/...RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR A WEAK
   SURFACE LOW/TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
   SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND
   STRONG WIND GUSTS.  SOME OF THIS COULD APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED
   SEVERE LIMITS AROUND JACKSONVILLE FL...NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
   GEORGIA...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

   ...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...
   MODELS SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND MOISTENING WILL ONLY
   SUPPORT WEAK TO MODEST CAPE THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...VEERING WINDS
   WITH HEIGHT BENEATH 30-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW AHEAD OF THE
   APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH LIKELY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING
   SUPERCELLS.  THIS APPEARS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW
   PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING.

   ...NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...
   MODELS SUGGEST THAT STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND A FOCUSED AREA OF
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY PROVIDE
   THE SUPPORT FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING.  MID/UPPER FLOW MAY BE RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE
   REGION...BUT THE EVOLUTION OF AT LEAST A SMALL STORM CLUSTER APPEARS
   POSSIBLE.  AND A REMNANT 30 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET...COUPLED WITH
   THE EVOLUTION OF A RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...MAY
   CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK FOR A DOWNBURST OR TWO...AS WELL AS VIGOROUS
   COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS.  ISOLATED
   SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...BEFORE ACTIVITY
   WEAKENS BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

   ..KERR/COHEN.. 04/19/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z