Sep 27, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 27 05:45:38 UTC 2016 (20160927 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160927 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160927 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160927 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160927 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160927 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 270545

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1245 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE U.S.
   TODAY AND TONIGHT.

   AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
   TODAY AS AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SWD THROUGH THE UPPER
   MS VALLEY. SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE ERN SEABOARD AS A FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE SRN
   APPALACHIAN MTNS AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS. THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
   BOUNDARY FROM THE ERN GULF COAST STATES NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
   MID-ATLANTIC. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE GREAT
   LAKES REGION AND IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY ACROSS CONUS
   SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

   ..BROYLES/COOK.. 09/27/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z