May 26, 2017 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri May 26 05:46:30 UTC 2017 (20170526 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170526 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170526 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 82,165 1,221,289 Fort Collins, CO...Greeley, CO...Longmont, CO...Loveland, CO...Cheyenne, WY...
MARGINAL 231,188 19,246,303 Indianapolis, IN...Denver, CO...Kansas City, MO...Colorado Springs, CO...Wichita, KS...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170526 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 91,294 3,937,262 Denver, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...Thornton, CO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170526 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 82,512 1,186,140 Fort Collins, CO...Greeley, CO...Longmont, CO...Loveland, CO...Cheyenne, WY...
5 % 231,419 18,962,551 Indianapolis, IN...Denver, CO...Kansas City, MO...Colorado Springs, CO...Wichita, KS...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170526 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 82,512 1,186,140 Fort Collins, CO...Greeley, CO...Longmont, CO...Loveland, CO...Cheyenne, WY...
5 % 231,562 18,979,650 Indianapolis, IN...Denver, CO...Kansas City, MO...Colorado Springs, CO...Wichita, KS...
   SPC AC 260546

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1246 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH
   PLAINS FROM CO TO THE EASTERN OK PANHANDLE...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO IL/IN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the central
   Plains with isolated activity into the eastern Texas Panhandle.  A
   few strong storms may also be noted across parts of the middle
   Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley region.

   ...Plains...

   Large-scale height rises are expected across most of the contiguous
   US Friday, though large-scale troughing will hold across the Western
   States.  Early-morning water-vapor imagery suggests a couple of weak
   disturbances across the inter-mountain region and one notable
   short-wave trough is observed over the northern Baja Peninsula.  In
   the absence of significant large-scale forcing for ascent, it
   appears diurnal heating and orographic influences will prove
   instrumental in convective development across the High Plains.

   Latest short-range model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer
   heating will be observed across the High Plains such that surface
   parcels should reach their convective temperatures near 22z. 
   Scattered convection is expected to develop across eastern CO within
   favorable southeasterly upslope flow.  Isolated storms are also
   expected to evolve along the dryline into the eastern TX Panhandle,
   possibly aided by aforementioned Baja short wave.  CINH should be
   negligible across these regions by late afternoon and deep-layer
   shear is more than adequate for supercell development.  Several
   high-res models agree with this scenario and large hail and damaging
   winds can be expected with these storms.  Organized severe threat
   will struggle to reach central KS/south-central NE until after
   midnight.  Even so, activity should be waning by this time.

   ...Mid MS Valley/OH Valley...

   Early-morning radar data exhibits a long-lived convective cluster
   moving into northeast KS.  Remnants of this convection may influence
   daytime convection downstream across the mid MS and OH valley.  00z
   model guidance is not particularly helpful regarding a convective
   scenario later today across this region.  Significant capping is
   observed across the southern Plains and this warm pocket of air at
   700mb will spread across AR/southern MO by midday toward southern
   IL.  Convection should struggle to develop at these lower latitudes
   despite several model solutions suggesting otherwise.  With nebulous
   forcing and broad height rising expected it appears diurnal heating
   and weak warm advection atop the boundary layer could aid
   thunderstorm risk.  Otherwise, remnant convective cluster over KS
   could enhance storm development over IL/IN later in the day.

   ..Darrow/Dean.. 05/26/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z