Jan 20, 2018 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 20 05:08:36 UTC 2018 (20180120 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180120 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180120 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20180120 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20180120 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20180120 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 200508

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1108 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The potential for thunderstorms appears low across the United States
   today and tonight.

   ...Synopsis...

   A strong upper trough will migrate eastward across the western U.S.
   toward the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity by Sunday morning.
   Ahead of, and in response to strong height falls,
   south-southeasterly low level trajectories across the Gulf will
   result in northward moisture return across southern and eastern TX,
   LA and eventually into the Ozark Plateau. With stronger forcing for
   ascent remaining well to the west of deeper moisture return, and
   limited instability across the region, thunderstorms are not
   expected today and tonight.

   ..Leitman.. 01/20/2018

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z