Sep 24, 2017 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Sep 24 05:59:19 UTC 2017 (20170924 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170924 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170924 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 34,035 820,132 St. Cloud, MN...Willmar, MN...Hibbing, MN...Fergus Falls, MN...Brainerd, MN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170924 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 34,019 820,573 St. Cloud, MN...Willmar, MN...Hibbing, MN...Fergus Falls, MN...Brainerd, MN...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170924 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 33,915 819,970 St. Cloud, MN...Willmar, MN...Hibbing, MN...Fergus Falls, MN...Brainerd, MN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170924 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 240559

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1259 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF MINNESOTA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A couple of strong storms -- and possibly a severe storm or two --
   may occur during the afternoon across portions of Minnesota.

   ...Synopsis...
   A relatively stagnant, but high-amplitude flow field aloft is
   expected to continue today, with the western U.S. trough making
   minimal eastward progress toward a stalwart eastern U.S. ridge.  

   At the surface, a cold front is expected to make slow southeastward
   progress across the north central U.S. and central Plains states, as
   a weak frontal low shifts quickly north-northeast across the Plains
   toward Ontario through the period.

   In the western Atlantic, Hurricane Maria is expected to remain well
   offshore.

   ...Parts of central and northern Minnesota...
   As a weak surface low shifts northeast across Minnesota during the
   afternoon in conjunction with weak short-wave troughing, a small
   cluster of semi-organized storms may develop by mid afternoon, as
   modest destabilization -- hindered by weak lapse rates aloft --
   develops.  Despite the thermodynamic deficiency, favorably strong
   flow aloft and some veering with height -- especially near the
   surface low -- would suggest potential for one or two sustained/more
   intense updrafts to evolve.  As such, will introduce
   low-probability/MRGL risk area in parts of Minnesota for the
   afternoon hours.  Expect storms to diminish by evening, as the low
   shifts into Canada and diurnal stabilization commences.

   ..Goss/Gleason.. 09/24/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z