Aug 28, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Aug 28 05:56:13 UTC 2016 (20160828 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160828 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160828 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 96,980 3,787,902 Syracuse, NY...Fargo, ND...Duluth, MN...Utica, NY...Grand Forks, ND...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160828 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 22,430 407,936 Fargo, ND...Grand Forks, ND...Moorhead, MN...West Fargo, ND...West Fargo, MN...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160828 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 95,867 3,667,331 Syracuse, NY...Fargo, ND...Duluth, MN...Utica, NY...Grand Forks, ND...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160828 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 67,952 1,302,972 Fargo, ND...Duluth, MN...Grand Forks, ND...Moorhead, MN...Superior, WI...
   SPC AC 280556

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1256 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR EASTERN ND...NRN MN...FAR
   NWRN WI...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF NY AND CNTRL PA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH
   DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 
   THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO
   DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE N-CNTRL CONUS IN THE
   WAKE OF A DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
   GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. STRONGER WLYS ALOFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
   THE NRN TIER WITHIN THIS REGIME...WITH GENERALLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT
   ELSEWHERE. A SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BECOME REINFORCED ACROSS THE GREAT
   LAKES...WHILE SRN SEGMENT OF A LEE SFC TROUGH WILL EXTEND INTO THE
   NRN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
   CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY
   MOVE EWD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS BEFORE STALLING...AND A SEPARATE
   NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW MEANDERS ERRATICALLY NEAR THE WRN GULF
   COAST. 

   ...ERN DAKOTAS AND WRN/NRN MN...
   MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND WRN MN AS
   LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...WITH MID-60S F
   DEWPOINTS BECOMING COMMON BY PEAK HEATING. A LEE SFC TROUGH WILL
   DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL DAKOTAS...WITH A SEPARATE N-S ORIENTED
   CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BECOME POSITIONED ACROSS ERN
   DAKOTAS...CO-LOCATED WITH THE WRN EDGE OF RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER
   MOISTURE. CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING PEAK HEATING REMAINS
   UNCERTAIN AMIDST MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES THAT WILL OCCUR INTO THE
   EVENING...AND THE PRESENCE OF WEAK INHIBITION. A CONDITIONAL RISK
   FOR A COUPLE SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS...WITH
   LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT A
   TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. 

   GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THE CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE
   APPARENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF MN...AS TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   IS MORE LIKELY AS THE LLJ VEERS TOWARDS THE SW. EVENTUAL EVOLUTION
   INTO A LONGER-LIVED CLUSTER OR MCS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN MN
   OVERNIGHT...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
   SVR HAIL POSSIBLE ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF A NRN PLAINS LAPSE RATE
   PLUME. 

   ...PARTS OF NY/PA...
   CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL SWLY FLOW ACROSS WRN PA INTO NRN NY WILL
   COINCIDE WITH A CORRIDOR OF MID-UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS. ISOLATED
   TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY AS MODEST
   MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS GLANCE THE REGION S OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING
   ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. MARGINAL TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS
   FORECAST TO OCCUR AMIDST 25-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE-LAYER
   SHEAR...SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO LOCALLY DMGG
   WIND GUSTS.

   ..ROGERS/MARSH.. 08/28/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z