Nov 24, 2017 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Nov 24 04:51:21 UTC 2017 (20171124 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20171124 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20171124 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20171124 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20171124 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20171124 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 240451

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1051 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida
   Peninsula and Keys. No severe storms are anticipated.

   ...Synopsis...
   A pair of phased shortwave troughs will move east-southeastward
   during the period with the northernmost shortwave moving across the
   northern Plains and the southernmost shortwave moving across the
   northern Great Basin and central Rockies. An associated cold front
   will track quickly southeastward across the Plains and upper/middle
   MS Valley. However, in spite of these features and their related
   forcing for ascent, dry conditions will result in an environment
   hostile to deep convection. Farther south, shortwave trough
   currently moving through the base of the longwave trough covering
   the eastern CONUS will continue eastward through the FL Peninsula
   early in the period. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible
   across the Peninsula through the early afternoon, primarily along
   the west-central coast. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible
   across southern FL and the Keys during the afternoon and evening.
   Limited instability will temper updraft strength, keeping the severe
   threat very low.

   ..Mosier/Cook.. 11/24/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z