Mar 24, 2017 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Mar 24 05:30:13 UTC 2017 (20170324 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170324 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170324 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 124,475 8,364,884 Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Springfield, MO...Beaumont, TX...Tyler, TX...
MARGINAL 179,499 24,406,117 Houston, TX...Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Kansas City, MO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170324 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 31,761 1,829,622 Shreveport, LA...Tyler, TX...Longview, TX...Bossier City, LA...Hot Springs, AR...
2 % 90,348 5,711,857 Little Rock, AR...Lafayette, LA...Beaumont, TX...Fort Smith, AR...The Woodlands, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170324 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 123,935 8,262,070 Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Springfield, MO...Beaumont, TX...Tyler, TX...
5 % 129,009 18,254,054 Houston, TX...Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...St. Louis, MO...Plano, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170324 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 122,583 8,206,853 Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Springfield, MO...Beaumont, TX...Tyler, TX...
5 % 133,839 18,400,820 Houston, TX...Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...
   SPC AC 240530

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARK
   PLATEAU AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
   SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are possible today across portions of the
   southeastern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley.  Strongest
   activity may impact portions of the Ark-La-Tex late this afternoon
   and evening, accompanied by some risk for tornadoes.

   ...Synopsis...
   The mid/upper flow regime appears likely to remain progressive, with
   models indicating troughing, within a couple of belts of westerlies
   emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, advancing inland across the
   Canadian and U.S. Pacific coast during this period.  As this occurs,
   an increasingly vertical stacked downstream southern branch
   lower/mid tropospheric cyclone is forecast to continue east of the
   central/southern high Plains, toward the mid/lower Mississippi
   Valley.  The manner in which this occurs, and the rate of eastward
   motion, remain points of at least some variability/spread within the
   model output.  

   At least some weakening/filling of the cyclone appears probable, but
   lower/mid tropospheric wind fields above the surface warm sector may
   still remain on the order of 50-70 kt.  However, mid-level cooling
   to the south and east of the cyclone center appears likely to cut
   off the plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the
   southern Rockies/Mexican Plateau region.  And, given the state of
   the air mass over the Gulf of Mexico, a deep moist return flow off
   the Gulf appears unlikely.  Models also suggest that attempts at
   low-level moistening may continue to be hampered by downward mixing
   of dry lower/mid tropospheric air, particularly near/east of the
   lower Mississippi Valley today through tonight.  All of this
   contributes to uncertainty concerning the extent of the severe
   weather potential,  but scattered thunderstorm activity may impact
   much of the lower central and southern Plains into the lower half of
   the Mississippi Valley and southern portions of the Great Lakes
   region during this period.

   ...Plains/Mississippi Valley...
   A band of remnant cloud cover, from initial convection along the
   leading edge of mid-level cooling associated with the cyclone, may
   prevent or slow substantive pre-frontal dryline sharpening across
   the southeastern Plains today.  This adds to aforementioned
   uncertainties, but low-level moistening within an axis of stronger
   surface pressure falls forecast across parts of northeast Texas,
   northwestern Louisiana and western Arkansas by around 23-00Z this
   evening seems to provide the best opportunity/focus for vigorous
   convective development.  Destabilization probably will be at least
   marginally sufficient for severe storms, in the presence of strong
   deep layer wind fields and vertical shear which may include sizable
   clockwise curved low-level hodographs by early evening.  The
   environment may become conducive to organized convection, including
   supercells with at least some risk for tornadoes, in addition to
   severe hail and locally strong surface gusts, before activity wanes
   across the lower Mississippi Valley overnight.

   Other strong storm development may not be out of the question in
   closer proximity to the mid-level cold core across parts of
   central/eastern Kansas and eastern Oklahoma late this afternoon and
   evening, with marginally severe hail and surface gusts possible.

   ..Kerr.. 03/24/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z