Jul 3, 2015 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jul 3 05:38:27 UTC 2015 (20150703 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150703 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150703 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 217,024 25,820,131 Memphis, TN...Charlotte, NC...Atlanta, GA...Plano, TX...Birmingham, AL...
MARGINAL 373,111 34,635,696 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Denver, CO...Oklahoma City, OK...Nashville, TN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150703 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 78,740 6,228,353 Fayetteville, NC...Columbia, SC...Charleston, SC...Wilmington, NC...North Charleston, SC...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150703 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 212,923 24,983,725 Memphis, TN...Charlotte, NC...Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Little Rock, AR...
5 % 368,552 34,986,211 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Denver, CO...Oklahoma City, OK...Nashville, TN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150703 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 34,566 1,284,877 Fort Smith, AR...Muskogee, OK...Sherman, TX...Paris, TX...Russellville, AR...
5 % 323,188 24,464,951 Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Denver, CO...Oklahoma City, OK...
   SPC AC 030538

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1238 AM CDT FRI JUL 03 2015

   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN OK INTO SC AND NC...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
   ACROSS EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
   THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE CAROLINAS. THE GREATEST THREAT OF
   DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WITH WIND AND
   HAIL OVER THE RED RIVER AND ARKLATEX AREA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN CONUS
   WITH LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY AND
   SECONDARY/WEAKER AND CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WAVE SETTLING INTO THE
   ARKLATEX BY SAT MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
   MASS WILL REMAIN S OF A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD
   ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. 

   TO THE W...A NWLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL EXIST OVER THE HIGH
   PLAINS...WITH ONLY WEAK LEE TROUGHING SUPPORTING ISOLATED DIURNAL
   STORMS.

   ...GA INTO SC...
   A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD OUT OF TN AND INTO THE
   CAROLINAS WITH SFC TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. A RIBBON OF
   STRONG WLY FLOW WILL ALSO EXIST IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...WITH 50
   KT AT 700 MB NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NRN GA INTO THE
   CAROLINAS. A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN
   PLACE TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS BY ABOUT 18Z AS UPSTREAM ACTIVITY
   OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTENSIFIES AND SPREADS RAPIDLY EWD DURING
   THE DAY. WITH SUCH STRONG WLY FLOW...BOWING STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
   A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...SOME LOW-LEVEL BACKING OF
   THE WINDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH...AND A WEAK/BRIEF
   TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

   ...RED RIVER VALLEY EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
   ONGOING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS SERN OK/NERN TX INTO AR WITH
   PERHAPS A MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT. THIS LEADING ACTIVITY IS
   EXPECTED TO REJUVENATE WITH DAYTIME HEATING FROM NERN TX ACROSS THE
   ARKLATEX AND INTO NRN MS AND AL BY LATE AFTERNOON. 

   BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY...MORE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP ACROSS
   SERN OK INTO AR WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT. VEERING WINDS WITH
   HEIGHT SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WITH AN ENHANCED HAIL RISK AND PERHAPS A
   BRIEF TORNADO.

   ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   STRONG HEATING WILL LEAD TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ISOLATED
   STORMS AIDED BY SELY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS ERN CO WITH A WEAK LEE
   TROUGH. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING THE DAY...WHICH
   SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THUS...ALTHOUGH LONG
   HODOGRAPHS WILL CONDITIONALLY FAVOR A FEW SMALL STORMS WITH
   HAIL...COVERAGE MAY NOT REACH SLIGHT RISK THRESHOLDS AND WILL
   MAINTAIN ISOLATED SEVERE.

   ..JEWELL/GLEASON.. 07/03/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z