May 28, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat May 28 06:00:32 UTC 2016 (20160528 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160528 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160528 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 301,693 25,805,965 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Kansas City, MO...Arlington, TX...St. Louis, MO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160528 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 129,476 8,950,243 Madison, WI...Des Moines, IA...Rockford, IL...Cedar Rapids, IA...Peoria, IL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160528 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 301,674 25,808,921 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Kansas City, MO...Arlington, TX...St. Louis, MO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160528 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 301,924 25,812,730 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Kansas City, MO...Arlington, TX...St. Louis, MO...
   SPC AC 280600

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE WRN UPPER GREAT
   LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TEXAS TO THE UPPER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MAINLY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SHORT-WAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST
   MAINTAIN NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SHIFTS NNEWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY
   THROUGH THE DAY...AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE
   PERIOD.  MEANWHILE IN THE W...FAST WLY FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
   PAC NW S OF A BRITISH COLUMBIA VORTEX...WHILE FARTHER S A WEAK
   TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE CA/NV VICINITY THROUGH 29/12Z.

   AT THE SURFACE...A RATHER WEAK/NONDESCRIPT PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED IN
   GENERAL.  WEAK/DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NNEWD
   ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING THE LK SUPERIOR
   VICINITY OVERNIGHT.  THIS LOW -- AND A ZONE OF BROAD LOW-LEVEL WARM
   ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT -- SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF SCATTERED TO
   ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN A ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE RIO GRANDE
   TO THE WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES.

   FINALLY...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER TWO IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
   INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND APPROACH THE SERN U.S.
   COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.  FOR ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
   FORECAST INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM
   THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD TO THE RIO GRANDE
   VALLEY OF TX...
   SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS -- ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD INVOF
   THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING NNEWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY -- SHOULD
   EXPAND IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF
   WI/MN SWD INTO MO...AS MODEST AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.  THE
   MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD FOCUS ACROSS ERN SD/ERN NEB/SRN
   MN/WI/IA...SPIRALING AROUND THE CENTER OF UPPER CIRCULATION.  MORE
   ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP SSWWD ACROSS MO -- AND POSSIBLY EVEN
   INTO PARTS OF ERN OK/WRN AR -- IN THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION
   ZONE.  WITH SOMEWHAT ENHANCED -- THOUGH LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL --
   FLOW ALOFT...A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  AN
   ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THE IA VICINITY NEAR
   THE UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER.

   MEANWHILE FARTHER S INTO TX...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
   THE TROUGH DEPARTING NNEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUGGEST WEAK
   BROAD-SCALE SUBSIDENCE.  FURTHER...WITH NWWD ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE INTO W TX PROGGED WITH TIME THUS HINDERING ANY ADVANCE OF A
   DRYLINE...LACK OF LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR UVV IS INDICATED.  

   HAVING SAID THAT...STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT RESIDING ABOVE A CAPPED
   BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUBSTANTIAL AFTERNOON CAPE
   DEVELOPMENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING.  MODELS --
   TO VARYING DEGREES -- FORECAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORM
   INITIATION RANGING AREALLY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN MEXICO
   /AIDED BY HEATING AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW/ TO PARTS OF CENTRAL TX
   /PRESUMABLY DUE TO VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/.  WITH THE
   LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN TX VEERING TO
   MODEST/WLY AT MID LEVELS...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT
   ROTATION IS EVIDENT...PARTICULARLY CONSIDERING THE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT.  THUS...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
   LIKELY WITH ANY STORM WHICH DOES DEVELOP.  HOWEVER...QUESTIONS
   REGARDING THE NUMBER OF STORMS WHICH WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP -- GIVEN
   THE GENERALLY UNSUPPORTIVE BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT --
   PRECLUDES AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ATTM.

   ..GOSS/MOSIER.. 05/28/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z