Dec 19, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Dec 19 05:12:00 UTC 2014 (20141219 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141219 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141219 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141219 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141219 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141219 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 190512

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1112 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS
   CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS GULF COAST EASTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE
   MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS WILL FEATURE A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH SHEARING ENEWD AS IT MOVES FROM TX TO THE LOWER MS AND TN
   RIVER VALLEYS.  IN THE LOW LEVELS...AN INFLECTION IN A WEAK FRONT
   OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL DEVELOP ENEWD FROM THE SHELF
   WATERS OF THE MIDDLE TX COAST TO THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER. 
   ELSEWHERE...A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE WRN U.S. AND NRN TIER OF STATES.  

   ...TX COAST AND SRN LA...
   THE AFOREMENTIONED SRN U.S. MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY DURING
   THE DAY 1 PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT SURFACE REFLECTION AND
   CONSEQUENTLY...THE NWD PENETRATION OF A MODIFIED MARITIME AIR MASS
   ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST INTO SRN LA.  DEWPOINTS FROM BUOYS OVER
   THE OPEN GULF S OF THE UPPER TX COAST/SRN LA ON THURSDAY EVENING
   HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S DEG F.  YET...ONLY A MODEST
   STRENGTHENING IN SSWLY H85 FLOW /30 KT/ IS FORECAST AND SIGNIFICANT
   QUESTION REMAINS WHETHER THE WARM SECTOR CAN PENETRATE INTO SRN LA
   FROM THE IMMEDIATE SHELF WATERS GIVEN THE WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEPICTED
   IN MODEL GUIDANCE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR
   SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS BUT GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
   MARGINAL MUCAPE /250-750 J PER KG/ WILL LIKELY LIMIT UPDRAFT
   INTENSITY.  WHILE A STRONG STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT...THE
   LACK OF AN APPRECIABLE SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM THREAT PRECLUDES A
   LOW CATEGORICAL THREAT OUTLOOK ATTM.

   ..SMITH/ROGERS.. 12/19/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z