Mar 27, 2015 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Mar 27 05:59:01 UTC 2015 (20150327 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150327 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150327 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 30,066 11,435,986 Miami, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...Pembroke Pines, FL...Hollywood, FL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150327 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150327 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 30,027 11,426,348 Miami, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...Pembroke Pines, FL...Hollywood, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150327 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 270559

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN FL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FIELD ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S.
   FRIDAY...WITH A LARGE TROUGH TO PREVAIL OVER THE W WHILE A TROUGH
   MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE ERN STATES.  WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE
   FLOW FIELD...A FAST-MOVING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
   INLAND ACROSS THE PAC NW AND WEAKEN THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGER
   SCALE RIDGE.  IN THE EAST...CYCLONIC SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST
   TO ROTATE ACROSS THE SERN STATES...THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
   LARGER-SCALE TROUGH.

   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
   COAST SWWD ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS/GA/THE FL PANHANDLE AND INTO THE
   CENTRAL GULF INITIALLY WILL MAKE STEADY SEWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
   SERN STATES...CLEARING S FL TOWARD THE LATTER STAGES OF THE PERIOD.

   ...CENTRAL AND SRN FL...
   CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FL
   PENINSULA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...HINDERING TO SOME DEGREE THE
   POTENTIAL FOR HEATING AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT.  WITH THAT
   SAID...SOME INCREASE IN AFTERNOON STORMS IS EXPECTED AS THE COLD
   FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...BENEATH STRENGTHENING
   SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.  THOUGH VEERED BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED
   AHEAD OF THE FRONT -- THUS LIMITING RISK FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION...A
   FEW STRONGER STORMS/CLUSTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FAVORABLE
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  THUS...WILL MAINTAIN 5% PROBABILITY TO COVER
   POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER GUST OR TWO INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

   ..GOSS/LEITMAN.. 03/27/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z