Oct 20, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Oct 20 05:42:59 UTC 2014 (20141020 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141020 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141020 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141020 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141020 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141020 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 200542

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1242 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN AREAS
   INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...IN ADDITION TO
   THE OHIO VALLEY AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SEMI-AMPLIFIED WESTERLIES WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
   CONUS THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
   INLAND/EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN CA/ORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
   TONIGHT...WHILE AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE
   GREAT LAKES VICINITY. WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
   EXPECTED...MULTIPLE AREAS OF AT LEAST A LOW THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONUS.

   ...SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   A WEAKENING/SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE
   TO INFLUENCE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF NM/FAR WEST TX THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
   GIVEN LIMITED BUOYANCY AND VERY WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR /15 KT OR
   LESS/.

   ...OH VALLEY...
   LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY IN VICINITY OF A
   SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BE
   MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHTNING/FEW THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY
   ACROSS PARTS OF OH AND THE LAKE ERIE VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING.

   ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
   A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OFFSHORE/NEAR-COASTAL AREAS
   OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST VIA LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION NEAR/BEHIND AN
   INLAND-MOVING FRONTAL BAND.

   ..GUYER/JIRAK.. 10/20/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z