Feb 10, 2010 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Feb 10 05:36:12 UTC 2010
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20100210 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20100210 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Tornado Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20100210 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20100210 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 100533
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1133 PM CST TUE FEB 09 2010
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...
   
   DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE NOW OFF THE CNTRL CA COAST WILL CONTINUE SEWD
   TODAY...GRADUALLY EVOLVING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND EVENTUALLY REACHING
   NWRN MEXICO BY THURSDAY MORNING.  IN THE LOW LEVELS...AN EXPANSIVE
   SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE EWD THROUGH THE MS
   VALLEY...MAINTAINING OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST.
   
   IT APPEARS THAT ANY TSTM POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO PARTS
   OF THE SWRN DESERTS WHERE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM
   WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF WEAK CONVECTIVE
   INSTABILITY...DESPITE A RATHER DRY AIR MASS.  FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH OPENING MIDLEVEL WAVE COUPLED WITH THE STEEP LAPSE
   RATES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TODAY INTO THIS
   EVENING OVER PARTS OF AZ INTO NM.  NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
   
   ..MEAD.. 02/10/2010
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z