Aug 29, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Aug 29 05:49:03 UTC 2014 (20140829 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140829 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140829 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140829 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 20,203 652,775 Wausau, WI...Stevens Point, WI...Marshfield, WI...Wisconsin Rapids, WI...Weston, WI...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140829 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 284,192 21,908,313 Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140829 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 41,673 508,123 Fargo, ND...Moorhead, MN...Aberdeen, SD...West Fargo, ND...West Fargo, MN...
   SPC AC 290549

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1249 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER
   CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...NORTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.  SOME OF THIS
   ACTIVITY COULD BE LOCALLY STRONG.  SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONGER MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO CANADA
   AND THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S...WITH A NUMBER OF PROGRESSIVE
   EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS.  ONE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE IS NOW
   APPROACHING THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...AND
   IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY INLAND ACROSS THE CANADIAN
   ROCKIES...THE CASCADES AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN U.S.
   INTERMOUNTAIN REGION DURING THIS PERIOD.  AS THIS OCCURS...THE
   INCREASINGLY DEFORMED REMNANTS OF A DOWNSTREAM CLOSED LOW...WITHIN
   THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT MID/UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES...APPEARS
   LIKELY TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AT
   THE SAME TIME...MODELS SUGGEST THAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL BUILD
   NORTHWARD FROM A STRENGTHENING HIGH NEAR SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL
   AREAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  WHILE A
   SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ALREADY APPEARS
   UNDERWAY...FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE IMPACT OF THIS MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED
   TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIMITED TODAY...INLAND OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
   GULF COASTAL AREAS.

   ...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST...
   AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IMPULSE APPROACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER
   TODAY...MODEST STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
   FLOW /20-40 KT/ APPEARS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT...ON THE NORTHWESTERN
   PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  WHILE ASSOCIATED MOMENTUM AND
   VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
   EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT...IN
   GENERAL...SEEMS AT BEST ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE STORM
   DEVELOPMENT.  LAPSE RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTICULARLY
   STEEP...AND REMNANT CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH EARLY
   DAY CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER IMPULSE WILL COMPLICATE BOUNDARY
   LAYER DESTABILIZATION.  HOWEVER...WHERE INSOLATION BECOMES
   SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATELY LARGE
   CAPE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST LOCALIZED
   STRONG WIND GUSTS DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE.  IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF
   THE QUESTION THAT HODOGRAPHS ALONG AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONTAL ZONE
   ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN COULD
   SUPPORT AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO.

   ...EASTERN DAKOTAS...
   IN THE WAKE OF THE IMPULSE ACCELERATING TOWARD THE UPPER
   MIDWEST...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATELY LARGE
   CAPE /ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J PER KG/ MAY DEVELOP WITHIN AN AXIS OF
   STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING...AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD
   FRONT.  AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
   /CURRENTLY TURNING EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE MONTANA
   ROCKIES/...DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR LIKELY WILL BE
   WEAK...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY STRONG
   WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WHICH COULD APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE
   LIMITS BEFORE STORMS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

   ..KERR/LEITMAN.. 08/29/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z