Jun 26, 2017 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jun 26 05:38:30 UTC 2017 (20170626 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170626 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170626 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 289,078 6,365,747 El Paso, TX...Albuquerque, NM...Colorado Springs, CO...Spokane, WA...Pueblo, CO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170626 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170626 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 288,939 6,366,351 El Paso, TX...Albuquerque, NM...Colorado Springs, CO...Spokane, WA...Pueblo, CO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170626 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 289,223 6,367,664 El Paso, TX...Albuquerque, NM...Colorado Springs, CO...Spokane, WA...Pueblo, CO...
   SPC AC 260538

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1238 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms with marginally severe hail and strong wind gusts are
   possible late this afternoon into early evening across parts of the
   Pacific Northwest and from the southern and central Rockies eastward
   into the High Plains.

   ...Southern and Central High Plains/Southern and Central Rockies...
   An upper-level ridge will be in place from the Four Corners region
   into the northern Rockies with northwest mid-level flow over the
   High Plains. At the surface, southeasterly flow will help maintain a
   moist airmass across the southern and central High Plains. Models
   again forecast moderate instability to develop this afternoon from
   the foothills of the southern and central Rockies eastward into the
   High Plains. As surface temperatures warm, isolated to scattered
   thunderstorms should initiate in the higher terrain of central and
   northern New Mexico and in the lower elevations of eastern New
   Mexico, southeastern Colorado and western Kansas. In addition to the
   instability, forecast soundings show substantial directional shear
   and steep lapse rates in the low to mid levels. This will likely be
   enough for a few marginally severe storms accompanied with hail and
   strong wind gusts. The threat should be concentrated in the late
   afternoon and early evening.

   ...Pacific Northwest...
   An upper-level trough will move to the West Coast today as a cold
   front advances eastward into the Pacific Northwest. Ahead of the
   front, a narrow corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast
   to set up from southwestern Oregon northeastward into southeastern
   Washington and northern Idaho. As surface temperatures warm during
   the day, moderate instability is forecast to develop in this zone
   with isolated to scattered convection initiating in the late
   afternoon. In addition to low-level instability, mid-level lapse
   rates are forecast to be steep. This combined with substantial speed
   shear in the low to mid levels may be enough for a few marginally
   severe storms with hail and strong wind gusts.

   ..Broyles/Mosier.. 06/26/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z