May 22, 2013 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed May 22 05:52:35 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130522 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20130522 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20130522 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20130522 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 244,430 43,929,680 Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Detroit, MI...Nashville, TN...Louisville, KY...
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 244,430 43,929,680 Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Detroit, MI...Nashville, TN...Louisville, KY...
   SPC AC 220548
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1248 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT
   LAKES...OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY...
   
   ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY/TN VALLEY...
   A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MID
   TO UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW LOCATED AHEAD OF THE
   SYSTEM FROM THE TN VALLEY NWD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AT THE
   SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS LOWER MI WITH A
   CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F
   EXTENDING NWD FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND LOWER
   GREAT LAKES REGION. MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM
   CLUSTERS WILL BE ONGOING THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
   RAPIDLY INCREASING ACROSS THE WRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS
   AFTERNOON. MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   SLIGHT RISK AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE
   CLUSTERS PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z AT ROCHESTER NY...COLUMBUS OH AND
   LEXINGTON KY SHOW SBCAPE VALUES FROM 750 TO 1250 J/KG WITH STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 35 TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS
   ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS CELLS
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST
   POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE SHOULD EXIST FROM LAKE ERIE SWD ACROSS
   MUCH OF OH ALONG THE AXIS OF A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THE WIND
   DAMAGE THREAT COULD BECOME ENHANCED IF A LINEAR MCS CAN ORGANIZE
   ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY. A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH ROTATING
   CELL ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE MCS. LARGE HAIL COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY
   THE MORE INTENSE CELLS BUT THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED
   MAINLY DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY.
   
   ...CNTRL GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY...
   THE SRN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY WITH A SFC TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS ERN AR AND
   LA. TO THE EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH...DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID
   TO UPPER 60S F WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.
   THE MODELS INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH
   WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS
   ALONG WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE ENOUGH FOR
   MARGINALLY SEVERE WET DOWNBURSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BETTER
   ORGANIZED MULTICELLS.
   
   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 05/22/2013
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z