Dec 6, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Dec 6 05:24:15 UTC 2016 (20161206 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20161206 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20161206 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 20,497 2,130,471 Jacksonville, FL...Valdosta, GA...Lakeside, FL...Hinesville, GA...Jacksonville Beach, FL...
MARGINAL 46,183 6,229,552 Tallahassee, FL...Savannah, GA...Gainesville, FL...Charleston, SC...Spring Hill, FL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20161206 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 12,527 855,487 Valdosta, GA...Brunswick, GA...Waycross, GA...Kingsland, GA...Lake City, FL...
2 % 28,634 5,262,300 Jacksonville, FL...Savannah, GA...Gainesville, FL...Spring Hill, FL...Daytona Beach, FL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20161206 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 20,467 2,134,192 Jacksonville, FL...Valdosta, GA...Lakeside, FL...Hinesville, GA...Jacksonville Beach, FL...
5 % 46,100 6,177,838 Tallahassee, FL...Savannah, GA...Gainesville, FL...Charleston, SC...Spring Hill, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20161206 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 060524

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1124 PM CST MON DEC 05 2016

   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
   GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH
   CAROLINA...GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY A
   TORNADO WILL EXIST THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN
   FLORIDA.

   ...EASTERN GULF COAST STATES/SOUTH CAROLINA...
   A NEGATIVELY-TITLED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED
   TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
   COAST STATES THIS MORNING AND INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. AT
   THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND
   OHIO VALLEYS AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   GULF COAST STATES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN
   PLACE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM SOUTHEAST ALABAMA EASTWARD TO
   THE GEORGIA COAST WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
   60S TO THE LOWER 70S FAHRENHEIT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   MOIST SECTOR SHOULD INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION.  TO COUNTER THIS
   NEGATIVE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AT 15Z SHOW A
   STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 50 TO 55 KT
   RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES IN THE
   250 TO 350 M2/S2 WILL BE ENOUGH FOR STORM ROTATION AND POSSIBLY A
   TORNADO NEAR THE CORE OF A 40 TO 55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. IN ADDITION...
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   WITH 45 KT OF SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 1 KILOMETER.  THIS COULD
   SUPPORT A WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE BETTER ORGANIZED DOWNDRAFTS
   TRANSFER THE STRONG FLOW TO THE SURFACE.

   THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH THE AIRMASS CAN RECOVER AS THE
   UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT
   THINKING IS THAT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
   SLIGHT RISK AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z AS IS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST
   HRRR. THE STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE
   WEAKNESS IN INSTABILITY TO ENABLE A SEVERE THREAT. BUT THIS WILL
   DEPEND UPON HOW MUCH ORGANIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE WITH THE CONVECTION
   JUST PRIOR TO THE DAY 1 PERIOD. A REASSESSMENT OF THE SEVERE
   POTENTIAL WILL TAKE PLACE FOR THE 13Z OUTLOOK AND THE SLIGHT RISK
   COULD BE ADJUSTED OR EVEN DROPPED AT THAT TIME IF THE SEVERE THREAT
   HAS NOT MATERIALIZED. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
   CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON...THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO
   MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF STREAM...MAKING THE SEVERE THREAT
   MARGINAL ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND LIMITING THE SEVERE
   THREAT ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

   ..BROYLES/GLEASON.. 12/06/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z