Jul 31, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jul 31 05:50:24 UTC 2014 (20140731 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140731 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140731 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 36,034 1,785,215 Concord, NH...Burlington, VT...Saratoga Springs, NY...Keene, NH...Greenfield, MA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140731 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 84,057 4,854,537 Shreveport, LA...Albany, NY...Tyler, TX...Longview, TX...Schenectady, NY...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140731 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 238,570 16,309,126 San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...El Paso, TX...Tucson, AZ...Albuquerque, NM...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140731 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 35,807 1,647,958 Concord, NH...Burlington, VT...Saratoga Springs, NY...Keene, NH...Greenfield, MA...
5 % 33,956 5,068,934 Worcester, MA...Springfield, MA...Manchester, NH...Lowell, MA...Albany, NY...
   SPC AC 310550

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1250 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF NEW
   ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
   ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER
   EASTERN TEXAS...THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN OREGON.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST THURSDAY WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER
   THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE
   WESTERN STATES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER LOW IS
   NOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH
   NEW ENGLAND LATER THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC A
   COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH TEXAS...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM
   NERN TX SWWD INTO THE BIG BEND AREA BY AFTERNOON. QUASI-STATIONARY
   FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM FL NWWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND NERN
   TX WHERE IT WILL INTERSECT THE COLD FRONT.  

   ...NEW ENGLAND AREA...

   A THERMAL TROUGH WITH -16 TO -18C AT 500 MB WILL SPREAD ACROSS NEW
   ENGLAND THURSDAY. NEAR SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND POCKETS OF
   MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING SHOULD BOOST MLCAPE TO 500-700 J/KG BY
   LATE MORNING. WEAK CAP AND DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH
   ASCENT ATTENDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
   DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. A 40-50 KT
   MID-LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
   SUFFICIENT /35-45 KT/ DEEP SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGELY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STORM SPLITS. SOME
   STORMS COULD ALSO EVOLVE INTO BOWING SEGMENTS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
   AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH AT LEAST
   MID-AFTERNOON.  

   ...EASTERN TEXAS AND THE ARKLATEX REGION...

   SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OK WILL ADVANCE SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
   WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO ERN TX. WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK...DIABATIC WARMING OF THE VERY MOIST SFC
   LAYER SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
   SECTOR. STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
   ERN TX. STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN THE MORE STABLE
   REGIME NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH WEAKER 25-30 KT SHEAR
   FARTHER SOUTH INTO TX. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY MULTICELL IN
   CHARACTER...BUT SOME MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

   ...WESTERN OREGON...

   STORMS WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE CASCADES OF WRN
   OREGON DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEEPLY MIXED INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS
   WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS.

   ..DIAL/DEAN.. 07/31/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z