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    Day 2 Outlook >
Apr 25, 2015 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Apr 25 13:00:39 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150425 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150425 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 251300

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

   VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MO ESE INTO ERN KY/FAR
   NRN TN...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENHD RISK AREA
   FROM PARTS OF THE MID MS VLY SSE TO THE CNTRL/ERN GULF CST AND THE
   CAROLINAS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREAS
   FROM PARTS OF E TX TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND NC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM
   SOUTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
   COAST INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE CAROLINAS. OTHER SEVERE STORMS
   MAY OCCUR FROM EASTERN MISSOURI EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF
   KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. THE STORMS COULD INCLUDE A FEW TORNADOES IN
   ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   KS-MO SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHEAR ESE INTO THE LWR OH VLY
   THIS EVE...AND ACROSS THE CNTRL-SRN APPALACHIANS EARLY SUN...AS IT
   BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ON THE SW SIDE OF QSTNRY
   LOW/TROUGH CENTERED OVER NS. IN THE MEAN TIME...FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK
   OVER THE RCKYS...DOWNSTREAM FROM SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE...AMPLIFYING
   TROUGH ALONG THE W CST.

   AT THE SFC...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE KS-MO SYSTEM SHOULD ELONGATE
   ESE ACROSS ERN MO...SRN IL...AND WRN/SRN KY LATER TODAY...BEFORE
   RE-FORMING EWD OFF THE NC CST EARLY SUN. STRENGTHENING WSWLY LOW-LVL
   FLOW S OF THE LOW WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A MODEST ENE ADVANCE OF
   MARITIME TROPICAL AIR ACROSS PARTS OF AL...GA...AND SC THROUGH THIS
   EVE. WEAK FRONT/WIND SHIFT TRAILING SW FROM THE LOW SHOULD FURTHER
   WEAKEN OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST REGION...WHILE A NEW COOL AIR SURGE
   SETTLES S ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS AND OZARKS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

   ...SE TX/LWR MS VLY/GULF CST TO CAROLINAS TODAY/TNGT...
   SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SCTD STRONG TO SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SFC
   HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES CORRIDOR ALONG STALLED OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY/WEAK CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH...ATTM
   EXTENDING ENE FROM SE TX INTO SRN MS/AL. WHILE THE STRONGEST DEEP
   WSWLY FLOW ROUNDING BASE OF MO UPR TROUGH WILL REMAIN N OF THE
   REGION...AMPLE /40-50 KT/ 700-500 MB FLOW WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT
   SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORMS. AND...ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...TRAILING UPR IMPULSE NOW OVER E TX WILL
   PROVIDE SOME DEGREE OF LIFT AT LEAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
   PERIOD. OVERALL SETUP WITH RICH MOISTURE/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
   /PER 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS/ AND LOW-LVL UPLIFT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
   STRUCTURES. THESE MAY YIELD DMGG GUSTS...SVR HAIL...AND PERHAPS A
   COUPLE TORNADOES.  IN THE NEAR TERM...A FEW SVR STORMS WILL ALSO
   TRACK GENERALLY E OR ENE ALONG RESIDUAL WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT OVER
   NRN FL/S GA...POSSIBLY WITH AN INCREASING SVR RISK /REF MCD 451/.
   LATER TODAY...MORE ISOLD SVR STORMS MAY FORM ALONG WEAKENING COLD
   FRONT/WIND SHIFT CROSSING NRN PARTS OF MS...AL...AND ERN TN.

   ...MO ESE INTO KY/TN THIS AFTN/EVE...
   A SEPARATE AREA OF STRONG TO SVR TSTMS SHOULD ARISE WITH AFTN
   HEATING OF DRY SLOT ATTENDANT TO WEAKENING...ESE-SHEARING UPR LOW.
   LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED COMPARED TO POINTS
   SOUTH...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THIS RISK AREA. BUT COOL
   MID-LVL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPENING LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD
   AMPLE CAPE /AROUND 1000 J PER KG/ FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS GIVEN
   CYCLONIC/CONFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW. 50 KT 700-500 MB WLY WINDS SUGGEST
   THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SCTD SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG
   WIND...AND A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ALONG STNRY FRONT EXTENDING
   ESE FROM THE MO SFC LOW INTO SRN IL...SW IND...AND WRN/NRN KY. LOSS
   OF SFC HEATING...STORM MERGERS...AND CONTINUED WEAKENING OF UPR LOW
   SHOULD FOSTER FAIRLY RAPID WEAKENING OF STORMS AFTER SUNSET.

   ..CORFIDI/COHEN.. 04/25/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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