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    Day 2 Outlook >
Sep 30, 2016 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Sep 30 12:48:50 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160930 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160930 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 301248

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0748 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

   VALID 301300Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NC/VA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OH RIVER
   VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA AS WELL AS THE OHIO RIVER
   VALLEY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A PERSISTENT...CLOSED...DEEP CYCLONE CENTERED OVER KY AND THE
   ADJACENT OH RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
   MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD INDIANA/WESTERN OH THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THE
   EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS
   NC/SOUTHERN VA MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
   INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE OTHER STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR AS FAR NORTH AS THE MIDDLE OH RIVER VALLEY
   VICINITY.

   ...NC/VA...
   NEAR 70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST PRIMARILY ACROSS
   PIEDMONT/COASTAL PORTIONS OF NC INTO SOUTHERN VA AHEAD OF AN
   EAST/NORTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT/FRONTAL WAVE AND NEAR/SOUTH
   OF A SLOW-NORTHWARD-SPREADING WARM FRONT. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
   AT LEAST SOME RELATED SEVERE RISK SHOULD BE SEMI-FOCUSED TODAY NEAR
   THE AFOREMENTIONED TRIPLE POINT/NORTHWARD-SHIFTING WARM FRONT WITHIN
   WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE A DIURNALLY DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR...WITH
   UPWARDS OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
   CENTRAL/EASTERN NC INTO SOUTHEAST/FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL VA. AS SIMILAR
   TO THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM GREENSBORO
   NC...SUPERCELL-CONDUCIVE WIND PROFILES WILL ESPECIALLY EXIST
   EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE NORTHWARD-SHIFTING WARM
   FRONT. THIS COULD INCLUDE SOME TORNADO RISK ASIDE FROM SEVERE
   HAIL/WIND. OTHER STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR
   ACROSS EASTERN NC WITHIN A MORE UNSTABLE BUT WEAKER
   DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.

   ...MIDDLE OH RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING PORTIONS OF OH/KY/WV...
   THE REGION WILL BE ON THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
   CLOSED/NEARLY STACKED CYCLONE AND ITS NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD-SHIFTING
   LOW-LEVEL LOW...WITH A BELT OF ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL
   SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION INTO
   THIS EVENING. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE OVERLY MOIST OR
   UNSTABLE TODAY...POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING /AIDED BY UPPER DRY
   SLOT PROXIMITY/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPPER 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS
   COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS LATE THIS MORNING AND
   AFTERNOON. IN THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE
   RATES...SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND A VORTICITY-RICH ENVIRONMENT
   NEAR THE UPPER LOW/OCCLUDED FRONT MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR FUNNEL
   CLOUDS/BRIEF TORNADO ASIDE FROM SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS/SMALL HAIL.

   ..GUYER/COOK.. 09/30/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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