Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Nov 28, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Nov 28 12:33:03 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20141128 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141128 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 281233

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0633 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

   VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR NEAR THE COAST OF OREGON AND
   EXTREME NOTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL DEAMPLIFY OVER CONUS THROUGH 12Z...AS TROUGH
   WEAKENS AND MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE ATLANTIC COAST...AND ANTICYCLONIC
   FLOW INITIALLY OVER WRN CONUS BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL AMIDST
   LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS.  STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER BC IS FCST
   TO MOVE SEWD...REACHING EXTREME NWRN WA NEAR END OF PERIOD. 
   MEANWHILE...SMALLER/POSITIVELY TILTED PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN
   MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY W OF ORE COAST BETWEEN 130W-140W -- WILL
   MOVE SEWD IN PIECEMEAL FASHION AND WEAKEN GREATLY AS IT NEARS
   ORE/NRN CA COAST...AMIDST STRENGTHENING CONFLUENT FLOW RELATED TO
   NRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE.  IN LOW LEVELS...THETAE WILL REMAIN TOO MEAGER
   TO SUPPORT TSTMS OVER CONUS E OF ROCKIES...IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT NOW
   LOCATED OVER N ATLC...CUBA AND NWRN CARIBBEAN. 

   ...NEAR-COASTAL PAC NW...
   IR IMAGERY INDICATES ELONGATED BAROCLINIC-LEAF SIGNATURE APCHG NWRN
   CA/SWRN ORE COAST ATTM...FOLLOWED BY SMALL POCKET OF
   LOW-TOPPED/GLACIATED CONVECTION IN COLD-CORE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
   OFFSHORE TROUGH.  WEAK/ELEVATED BUOYANCY IS POSSIBLE NEAR COAST IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH LEADING FEATURE...AND SUGGESTED BY SLGT
   MODIFICATION OF 12Z SLE/MFR RAOBS.  WHILE ISOLATED LTG CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT ACCORDINGLY THIS MORNING...SOMEWHAT GREATER THUNDER
   POTENTIAL SHOULD ARISE THIS AFTN INTO EVENING AS COLDER AIR ALOFT
   OVERTAKES MARINE LAYER NEAR COAST...JUXTAPOSING MRGL BOUNDARY-LAYER
   THETAE WITH STEEPENING LOW-MIDDLE-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  MUCAPE UP TO
   300 J/KG IS POSSIBLE...BASED ON TIME SERIES OF FCST SOUNDINGS FROM
   SEVERAL LOCATIONS AND MODELS.

   ..EDWARDS/LEITMAN.. 11/28/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: November 28, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities