Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Sep 23, 2017 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Sep 23 12:40:35 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170923 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170923 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 231240

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0740 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

   Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UPPER MIDWEST TO
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible from the Upper
   Midwest to the southern High Plains, mainly this afternoon and early
   evening.

   ...Synopsis...
   A highly amplified upper pattern will persist with a cyclone over
   the Great Basin and anticyclone over the Midwest. Surface features
   will remain quasi-stationary over the central states with a cyclone
   anchored across east-central CO and attendant front arcing northeast
   into the Upper MS Valley.

   ...Upper Midwest to central Great Plains...
   Elevated, largely non-severe convection will likely persist
   north/west of the front through much of the period. Isolated to
   scattered storms should develop near the front towards peak heating.
   A residual plume of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates should
   yield a moderately unstable air mass with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg.
   With quasi-meridional deep-layer winds, surface-based convection
   will tend to emanate along and north of the boundary. Effective
   shear in excess of 30 kt should be confined along and north of the
   front as well. As such, severe wind/hail coverage will most likely
   be isolated and diminish after sunset.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Moist, upslope flow is already contributing to scattered storms
   across northeast NM. Although diabatic heating should be modest,
   MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will be maintained. Some increase in
   mid-level winds is anticipated with gradual eastward progression of
   the Great Basin upper low, however deep-layer flow will remain
   meridional. Amid scattered to widespread storms this afternoon and
   early evening, a few linear segments should form and slowly shift
   east, offering a risk for isolated severe wind gusts.

   ..Grams/Jewell.. 09/23/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: September 23, 2017
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities