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    Day 2 Outlook >
May 1, 2016 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 1 12:44:59 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160501 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160501 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 011244

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0744 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

   VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AND SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN APPALACHIANS
   AREA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
   TX EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN
   APPALACHIANS...AND ALSO FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS EASTWARD INTO
   CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BLOCKING-TYPE FLOW FIELD ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WRN U.S. THIS
   PERIOD...AS RIDGING EXPANDS OVER ERN CANADA AND INTO THE PAC NW/NRN
   INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WHILE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ERN CANADA WSWWD
   ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SRN ROCKIES/GREAT
   BASIN.

   AT THE SURFACE...A LOW INVOF STL ATTM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
   OH VALLEY REGION...ROUGHLY ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING EWD
   FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  MEANWHILE...A TRAILING COLD FRONT
   EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SWWD INTO S TX WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE
   MS/TN VALLEYS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE LINGERING ACROSS THE S TX
   VICINITY THROUGH 02/12Z.

   ...OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
   AS ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND E OF THE APPALACHIANS
   SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD TODAY...SOME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE
   OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST.  BY MID AFTERNOON...AT LEAST ISOLATED
   STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST NEAR/AHEAD OF THE EWD-MOVING SURFACE
   LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING E OF THE LOW ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
   REGION.  WITH A BELT OF 50+ KT WSWLYS AT MID LEVELS ATOP THIS
   REGION...A FEW STRONGER/SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE...WITH
   POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  WITH DEGREE OF
   DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL POSSIBLY LIMITING BOTH THE NUMBER AND
   INTENSITY OF STORMS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS
   THE AREA ATTM...THOUGH LATER UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE NEEDED IF
   MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR.

   WHILE LESS CERTAIN DUE TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION POSSIBLY
   LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING...EVENTUAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
   ALONG AND E OF CENTRAL AND SERN APPALACHIANS MAY SUPPORT
   REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION.  WHILE ON THE
   SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW...A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF
   MARGINAL HAIL/STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

   ...RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TX EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

   A PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS -- WITH EMBEDDED STRONGER
   CORES -- IS ONGOING ACROSS SERN TX/LA ATTM...WHILE A BAND OF WEAKER
   CELLS EXTEND NEWD ACROSS MS.  WITH SOME DOWNSTREAM HEATING OF THE
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTS SOME DESTABILIZATION INTO THE
   AFTERNOON...EXPANSION/INTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTION APPEARS
   LIKELY.  WITH SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL/WEAK SUPERCELL
   ORGANIZATION...A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

   FARTHER W INTO TX...ELY POST-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL FLOW UPSLOPING INTO
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO MAY SUPPORT AFTERNOON STORM
   DEVELOPMENT AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL
   HEATING.  WITH AMPLE MID-LEVEL WSWLYS ATOP THE LOW-LEVEL ELY
   FLOW...STORMS MAY MOVE EWD OFF THE TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
   INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF TX.  WHILE THIS SCENARIO REMAINS SOMEWHAT
   UNCERTAIN ATTM...CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE
   THREAT IS APPARENT INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN
   ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE AREA ATTM...WITH ANY
   POSSIBLE UPGRADE LEFT FOR CONSIDERATION IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

   ..GOSS/GLEASON.. 05/01/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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