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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 27, 2016 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jul 27 12:39:10 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160727 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160727 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 271239

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0739 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

   VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS VA/NC AREA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SE AZ...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
   NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA
   AREA...AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   WITH A STOUT MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE
   SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...A BELT OF CONFLUENT MODERATE MID-LEVEL
   WEST-NORTHWESTERLIES WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL
   GREAT PLAINS AND MID-MO VALLEY. A SERIES OF MINOR SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
   EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT POCKETS OF WIDELY
   SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD ALSO
   DEVELOP IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW
   WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
   DECAYING OVER SOUTHERN KS. POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION APPEARS
   COMPARATIVELY GREATER WITHIN THIS REGION...BUT THE ABSENCE OF
   APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND THE PRESENCE OF MODIFIED
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE NORTH OF THE KS OUTFLOW SUGGESTS SUPERCELL
   COVERAGE MAY REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED.

   ...VA/NC VICINITY...
   STRONG SURFACE HEATING AMID 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD AGAIN
   CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE BUOYANCY AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS.
   MODEST MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES PERSISTING NORTH OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC
   COAST ANTICYCLONE COULD SUPPORT LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTICELLS.
   HOWEVER...STORM MERGERS AND THE HIGH PW AIR MASS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE
   RESPONSIBLE FOR GENERATING A WET MICROBURST WIND THREAT.

   ...SOUTHEAST AZ...
   15-25 KT 500-MB NORTHEASTERLIES ARE EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON TO
   EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NM/SOUTHEAST AZ. THIS SHOULD AID IN
   CONVECTION PROPAGATING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A RISK FOR
   ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. 

   ...NORTHERN ME...
   CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
   QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY
   EVENING. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WOULD CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT
   ORGANIZED STORMS...BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN WEAK DURING PEAK
   HEATING...WITH INSTABILITY DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. CAMS ARE IN
   STRONG AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE SUBSTANTIALLY
   PRIOR TO REACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

   ..GRAMS/BROYLES.. 07/27/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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Page last modified: July 27, 2016
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