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    Day 2 Outlook >
Aug 25, 2016 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Aug 25 12:53:57 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160825 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160825 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 251253

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0753 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

   VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST OH AND
   WESTERN PA...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE TX
   PANHANDLE...NRN OK...AND SRN KS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
   THE UPPER OH VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND
   CENTRAL PLAINS.

   A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
   TODAY...WHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN
   HIGH PLAINS...ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY...INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. 
   THIS PARADE OF WEAK UPPER SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

   ...OH/PA...
   ONE SUCH FEATURE IS CURRENTLY OVER IND MOVING EASTWARD.  PARTIAL
   SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR
   70F WILL HELP TO DEVELOP MODERATE CAPE VALUES OVER EASTERN OH AND
   WESTERN PA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE AT LEAST ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.  COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE LIMITED AND
   THERE WAS THOUGHT GIVEN TO REMOVING THE SLIGHT RISK. 
   HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP
   LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND SOME UPDRAFT
   ROTATION.  THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME IN THE
   EVENT THAT A FEW INTENSE STORMS CAN FORM.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

   ...TX PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS...
   ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS DEPICTED OVER CENTRAL NM.  THIS SYSTEM IS
   EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE TX
   PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  MOST OVERNIGHT CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
   THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH
   STORMS SPREADING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
   DURING THE EVENING.  STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND
   DUSK...COUPLED WITH MODERATELY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT WILL POSE A RISK OF A FEW INTENSE STORMS
   CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

   ..HART/COOK.. 08/25/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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Page last modified: August 25, 2016
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