Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
May 25, 2015 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon May 25 12:33:37 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150525 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150525 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

The SPC is forecasting ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon and evening....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.  View What is a Watch? clip.

Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 251233

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0733 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

   VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
   OK...NORTHEAST TX...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST AR...

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
   OK...WESTERN AR...NORTHWEST LA...AND NORTH/CENTRAL TX...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES STATES...

   CORRECTED FOR GRAPHICAL ERROR ON HAIL CHART

   ...SUMMARY...
   WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. 
   MORE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
   INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY.

   ...AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF
   NORTHEAST TX AND SOUTHEAST OK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
   DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES...

   ...NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN OK...
   MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A COMPACT...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST TX.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE RATHER
   QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING...AND INTO
   NORTH TX/SOUTHERN OK LATER TODAY.  A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
   HAS FORMED IN WEST TX...WITHIN THE ASCENT REGION AHEAD OF THE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE
   AND INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING RAPIDLY DESTABILIZES
   THE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE STORMS.  MOST OVERNIGHT CAM SOLUTIONS
   ARE CONSISTENT IN ORGANIZING THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS INTO A BOWING
   MCS /POSSIBLE DERECHO/ THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN
   OK LATER TODAY.  GIVEN THE FAST AND NEGATIVELY-TILTED NATURE OF THE
   UPPER TROUGH...THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST TO PASS
   ACROSS THE REGION...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND AMPLE
   CAPE...HAVE UPGRADED THIS REGION TO A MODERATE RISK.  VERY LARGE
   HAIL AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. 
   TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE ALSO BEEN RAISED FOR THE RISK OF DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS FORMING AHEAD OF THE MCS AROUND PEAK HEATING WHEN
   INHIBITION WILL BE WEAKEST...AS WELL AS FOR THE RISK OF QLCS
   SPIN-UPS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS.  STORMS SHOULD SPREAD
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO AR AND NORTHERN LA DURING THE EVENING WITH A
   CONTINUED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

   ...CENTRAL TX...
   MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSIDERABLY MORE DIVERSE REGARDING THE COVERAGE
   AND TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL TX LATER TODAY...RESULTING
   IN MORE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.  ONE SUPERCELL IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING
   THE DRT REGION.  IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY PERSISTS THIS
   MORNING...OR IF NEW STORMS DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 
   REGARDLESS...MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR AND SUFFICIENT WINDS ALOFT WILL
   PROMOTE THE RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
   WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALSO GROW UPSCALE
   INTO A BOWING MCS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOVE TOWARD THE
   UPPER/MIDDLE TX GULF COAST REGION.

   ...KS/MO/NEB/IA/MN...
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MN
   INTO NORTHWEST IA AND EASTERN NEB.  DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S TO
   LOWER 60S SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE BROKEN CLOUD COVER WILL
   LEAD TO MODERATE CAPE VALUES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL
   HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY IN THIS REGION...SUGGESTING THAT
   LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS WEAK. 
   NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
   TO FORM OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL KS/NEB AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
   RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE STRONGER CELLS WILL BE
   CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
   BE RATHER WEAK...BUT VEERING WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY
   SUPPORT THE RISK OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
   TWO.

   ..HART.. 05/25/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 25, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities