New York, NY...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Detroit, MI...Boston, MA...
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 221244
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
VALID 221300Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW AN UPPER LOW OVER IA/MN...WITH
SEVERAL WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE LOW INTO
THE OH VALLEY. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS IN PLACE AND EARLY SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS PARTS OF OH/WV/PA/NY. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE TN/OH VALLEY
REGION.
...OH INTO NEW ENGLAND...
MULTIPLE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR OVER THIS REGION TODAY. MODELS ALSO SHOW PRONOUNCED
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN RATHER STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE CAPE VALUES...THE POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR A CLUSTERING OF SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS ACROSS THIS AREA.
THUS HAVE UPGRADED THE REGION TO 30 PERCENT HAIL AND WIND THREATS.
...TN/OH VALLEYS...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AFFECTED PARTS OF MS/AL OVERNIGHT.
THESE STORMS HAVE REDUCED THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE TN
VALLEY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN
THIS REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT APPEARS THE COVERAGE OF
STORMS FROM TN NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN OH/WV WILL BE RATHER SPARSE..
THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT RISK DESIGNATION FOR THIS REGION
BUT NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE 30 PERCENT UPGRADE.
..HART/LEITMAN.. 05/22/2013
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z