SPC AC 031233
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0733 AM CDT FRI JUL 03 2009
   
   VALID 031300Z - 041200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
   EASTERN MT...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   TREND TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS NRN CONUS AS NERN TROUGH SLOWLY
   ROTATES NEWD AND RIDGE CENTRAL U.S. FLATTENS IN RESPONSE TO S/W
   ENERGY MOVING EWD FROM ROCKIES. FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY HAS PUSHED
   SWD TO SRN GA WWD TO SRN MS AND THEN BACK NWWD INTO CENTRAL PLAINS.
   PLAINS PORTION OF THE FRONT IS RETURNING SLOWLY NWD AS A WARM FRONT
   IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY IN ADVANCE
   OF THE S/WV TROUGH OVER ROCKIES.
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS...
   ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED THIS MORNING
   NEB SEWD ACROSS ERN KS SHOULD SHIFT EWD AND NOT BE A SEVERE CONCERN
   DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD TO
   VICINITY KS/NEB BORDER AND SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY SWRN KS BEGINS
   MOVING NEWD THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG HEATING OF AN ALREADY MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED TO LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF A MDTLY UNSTABLE
   WARM SECTOR ACROSS KS. SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION SHOULD
   OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE FAVORABLY CONVERGENT WARM FRONTAL
   ZONE CENTRAL HI PLAINS. ALTHOUGH WARM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
   AROUND 7 C/KM WILL TEMPER SOME OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...MLCAPES OF
   2000 J/KG OR MORE COUPLED WITH VEERING SHEAR PROFILES AND SFC-6KM
   SHEAR OF 40-50KT SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
   SUPERCELLS VICINITY AND N OF WARM FRONT. ALONG WITH LARGE
   HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
   ANY SUPERCELL.
   
   WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO 50 PLUS KT AND VEERING TO MORE
   SWLY BY THIS EVENING AS SURFACE AND 850MB LOW SHIFT NEWD ACROSS NRN
   KS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GROW UPSCALE...EVOLVING INTO ONE OR MORE
   MCS/S OVERNIGHT.  MORE ORGANIZED COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH ANY MCS
   WILL PROVIDE AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT EWD INTO NRN MO/SRN IA.
   
   ...CENTRAL/ERN MT...
   A MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF MT E OF DIVIDE AND WILL
   SUPPORT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY.  WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
   GENERALLY WEAK...THE RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 30KT SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF DOWNBURSTS
   THE PRIMARY THREAT. STORM MODE GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG SHEAR SHOULD
   BE PULSE WITH INTENSITIES DIMINISHING BY SUNSET.
   
   ...NRN FL...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER NRN FL. THE REGION WILL LIE ON THE
   SRN PERIPHERY OF MODERATE MID/UPPER-LEVEL WLYS. WITH MLCAPE OF 2000
   TO 2500 J/KG DEVELOPING S OF THE FRONT...A FEW LOOSELY
   ORGANIZED/MULTICELL TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ...SRN NEW ENGLAND...
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES WILL PROGRESS EWD INTO
   SRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
   THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS. BELT OF
   STRONGER MID-LEVEL W/SWLYS AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD GRADUALLY
   SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY. SETUP SHOULD YIELD A RELATIVELY
   SHORT-DURATION WINDOW FOR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WIND DURING THE EARLY
   AFTERNOON.
   
   ...GREAT BASIN...
   MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE WIDESPREAD ONE MORE DAY FROM SRN ID TO AZ
   AS SEVERAL SMALL-SCALE IMPULSES WILL HELP MAINTAIN A BELT OF
   MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLYS. IN CONJUCTION WITH INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...A FEW MICRO BURSTS/HAIL EVENTS APPEAR
   POSSIBLE DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORABLE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
   
   ..HALES/GARNER.. 07/03/2009
   
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