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    Day 2 Outlook >
Aug 29, 2015 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Aug 29 12:27:06 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150829 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150829 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 291227

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0727 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

   VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
   SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA.  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
   WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS NORTHWARD INTO
   THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.

   ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...

   AN INTENSE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE INLAND ACROSS WRN
   CANADA AND THE NWRN CONUS WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER
   THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NRN PLAINS.  FARTHER EAST...A
   SERIES OF MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL TRAVERSE ERN CANADA...THE
   GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NERN U.S. WITHIN A PROGRESSIVE
   POLAR-BRANCH AIR STREAM.  ELSEWHERE...BROAD TROUGHING WILL PERSIST
   OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WHILE T.S. ERIKA MOVES ACROSS CUBA TOWARD
   THE FL KEYS.

   ...MID MS VALLEY INTO OZARK PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON...

   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPLIFT ALONG A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT WILL BE
   AUGMENTED BY DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGH TO FOSTER A FEW STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST A MOIST
   AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT
   STORM ORGANIZATION AND LONGEVITY...THOUGH ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF
   GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

   ...SERN U.S. INCLUDING FL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

   VORTICITY MAXIMA PIVOTING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
   ACT IN CONCERT WITH DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS...A RESIDUAL
   STALLED SYNOPTIC FRONT AND TOPOGRAPHY TO YIELD WIDELY SCATTERED
   TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS.

   OVERNIGHT...RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. ERIKA MAY BEGIN TO
   OVERSPREAD SRN FL AND THE KEYS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRENGTHENING
   LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD.  WHILE SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION MAY BE OBSERVED
   WITH THESE SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ANY TORNADO THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
   QUITE SMALL THROUGH 12Z/SUNDAY.  

   ...MT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

   HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA RELATED TO SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 70-80
   KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK TRANSLATING FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO NRN
   INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL GIVE RISE TO ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   LATER TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF WRN INTO CNTRL MT.  THOUGH MOISTURE
   WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...A DEEP...WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
   AND INCREASING MOMENTUM ALOFT MAY YIELD LOCALLY STRONG OUTFLOW
   WINDS.

   ..MEAD/GLEASON.. 08/29/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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Page last modified: August 29, 2015
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