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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jan 20, 2018 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 20 12:54:30 UTC 2018 (Print Version | 20180120 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180120 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 201254

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0654 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

   Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorm areas are not expected today and tonight over the
   contiguous U.S.

   ...Synopsis...
   In mid/upper levels, a pronounced, progressive split-flow pattern
   will cover western North America this period.  The southern stream
   of that split will be dominated by a strong shortwave trough now
   apparent in moisture-channel imagery from western NV south-
   southwestward over the CA Channel Islands and well offshore from
   northern Baja.  This trough will move eastward to western portions
   of CO/NM through the period, with a weak/embedded 500-mb low
   possibly forming and moving eastward generally across the Four
   Corners.

   A somewhat overlapping zone of elevated warm advection, low/middle-
   level frontal forcing and DCVA-steepened midlevel lapse rates is
   expected to precede the mid/upper trough this afternoon and tonight
   -- from the Colorado Plateau of northern AZ/southern UT eastward
   across the Four Corners to the southern Rockies.  Very isolated
   thunder cannot be ruled out in this regime.  However, buoyancy
   appears too meager to support an area of thunder probabilities at
   least 10%.

   Elsewhere, instability and lift should be too weak to support inland
   thunder associated with a much weaker mid/upper trough crossing the
   Gulf Coast States and northern Gulf.

   ..Edwards/Broyles.. 01/20/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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Page last modified: January 20, 2018
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