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    Day 2 Outlook >
Nov 20, 2017 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Nov 20 12:21:34 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20171120 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20171120 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 201221

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0621 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

   Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
   today through tonight.

   ...Synopsis...
   Gradual amplification of the western ridge/eastern trough pattern is
   expected through Tuesday.  An embedded shortwave trough over the Rio
   Grande Valley will progress to the central Gulf of Mexico by
   tonight, with some potential for very weak surface cyclogenesis
   across the eastern Gulf in association with ascent preceding the
   wave and air mass modification over the loop current.  Isolated
   lightning flashes have been observed this morning with convection
   crossing the Rio Grande, and 12z soundings from CRP/BRO confirm
   sufficient buoyancy rooted near or above 700 mb to sustain a
   thunderstorm threat through the morning across deep south TX.  

   Otherwise, low-level moistening/destabilization is expected across
   the southeast FL coast as a front stalls and then retreats back to
   the north tonight.  Only shallow convective showers are expected
   today across southeast FL, but moistening could become sufficient
   for deeper convection and isolated lightning flashes overnight.

   ..Thompson.. 11/20/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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Page last modified: November 20, 2017
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