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    Day 2 Outlook >
Mar 29, 2015 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Mar 29 12:13:58 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150329 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150329 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 291213

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0713 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

   VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING THROUGH
   TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...EASTWARD
   THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.  ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
   MEXICO AND ADJACENT SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO.

   ...NE TX/SE OK TO THE ARK-LA-MISS AND TN VALLEY TONIGHT...
   A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE ESEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS
   TO GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT...AS AN ASSOCIATED
   SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD TO THE CORRIDOR FROM THE TN VALLEY TO
   N TX.  MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED ACROSS TX/AR/LA IN ADVANCE OF THE
   COLD FRONT...AS A SHALLOW MODIFYING AIR MASS RETURNS NWD/NEWD FROM
   THE NW GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS MOISTENING WILL OCCUR BENEATH THE ERN
   EXTENSION OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME...SUCH THAT MLCAPE COULD
   INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG...BUT PROFILES WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED
   THROUGH 00Z.

   THE STRONGER/DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL GLANCE
   THE NE EDGE OF THE DEVELOPING MOIST SECTOR THIS EVENING INTO
   TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
   SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION JUST N OF THE
   SURFACE BOUNDARY EARLY TONIGHT FROM NE TX/SE OK INTO THE
   ARK-LA-MISS.  BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL
   FOR MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG EARLY TONIGHT...IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
   RELATIVELY COOL 500 MB TEMPERATURES AND A MARGINAL WIND PROFILE FOR
   SUPERCELLS.  IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT BUOYANCY WILL BE ANY LARGER THAN
   SHOWN BY THE DETERMINISTIC OPERATIONAL RUNS...SO THE RISK FOR HAIL
   AOA 1 INCH IN DIAMETER STILL APPEARS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT THE
   ADDITION OF PROBABILITIES.

   ..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 03/29/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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Page last modified: March 29, 2015
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