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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jun 28, 2016 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jun 28 12:44:57 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160628 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160628 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 281244

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0744 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

   VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM ERN
   PA INTO ERN NY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL MT TO CENTRAL
   KS...SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
   AREA FROM VA NWD INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
   EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM
   MID-AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.  MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
   WITH DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN
   PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK.

   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
   A FEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING FROM SD TO KS IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH SUBTLE SPEED MAXIMA MOVING SEWD ON THE E SIDE OF THE MIDLEVEL
   RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES.  OTHER SPEED MAXIMA WILL LIKEWISE CREST
   THE RIDGE AND MOVE SEWD TO THE SW SD/NE WY/WRN NEB AREA BY THIS
   EVENING.  MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE LOW LEVELS
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
   UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  IN
   COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MLCAPE WILL INCREASE TO 2000-3000
   J/KG IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WNWLY SHEAR TO
   SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.

   CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON IMMEDIATELY E OF
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN ERN WY/SW SD...AS WELL AS ALONG THE LINGERING
   BAROCLINIC ZONE FARTHER E TOWARD CENTRAL SD/NEB.  THE STORMS WILL
   MOVE TO THE S AND SE...WITH THE INITIAL MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO OR TWO.  SOME UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A CLUSTER IS EXPECTED BY
   LATE EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT AS STORMS SPREAD SEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS...WITH A CONTINUING HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND RISK.  THERE
   IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER HAIL PROBABILITIES IN THE AREA CENTERED
   ON WRN NEB IN LATER OUTLOOK UPDATES...THOUGH AN UPGRADE TO AN ENH
   RISK WILL DEPEND ON LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE HIGHER END OF THE
   GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  

   ...NE STATES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
   A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LOWER MI THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS
   EWD TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING...AS AN ASSOCIATED
   WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES EWD FROM CENTRAL TO ERN NY AND PA.  BOUNDARY
   LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AND SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD
   BREAKS WILL SUPPORT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE BUOYANCY IN
   ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT STORMS TO FORM BY
   EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT...WHEN MODEST DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL
   SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND SOME SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES.  THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW
   DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

   ..THOMPSON/PICCA.. 06/28/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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