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    Day 2 Outlook >
May 29, 2016 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 29 13:00:12 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160529 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160529 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 291300

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

   VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING SRN PLAINS SLGT
   RISK...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN LOWER MI TO
   INDIANA/KENTUCKY/OHIO BORDER AREA AND NRN OH...

   ...SUMMARY...
   WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
   WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS CONUS
   THIS PERIOD.  WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THAT HAD BEEN ASSOCIATED
   WITH SEVERE WEATHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS OVER CENTRAL CONUS...IS
   EJECTING NEWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY...WI AND WRN LS REGION ATTM. 
   BY 00Z...THIS PERTURBATION SHOULD REACH ERN LS...NRN LOWER MI AND
   SRN LM...BEFORE PROCEEDING NEWD ACROSS NRN ONT AND WEAKENING
   CONSIDERABLY.  THIS WILL OCCUR AS UPSTREAM PERTURBATIONS NOW OVER BC
   AND SERN SK MOVE EWD THROUGH NRN STREAM.  MEANWHILE...BROAD/WEAK
   CYCLONE ALOFT -- NOW APPARENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER
   CHANNEL ISLANDS REGION OF SRN CA COASTAL WATERS...WILL MOVE EWD TO
   LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY BY END OF PERIOD...WITH 500-MB LOW INVOF EED. 
   HEIGHTS THAT HAVE BEEN RISING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN CONUS BEHIND
   DEPARTING PERTURBATION SHOULD EXHIBIT MORE NEUTRAL ISALLOHYPSIC
   TENDENCIES THROUGH MOST OF DAY-1 AS
   1.  SWRN SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY INLAND...AND
   2.  PRECURSORY/LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS...MOST PROMINENTLY ONE
   NOW LOCATED OVER S-CENTRAL/SWRN NM...PENETRATE SOMEWHAT BROADER-
   SCALE RIDGING.  500-MB VORTICITY FIELD WITH LATTER FEATURE SHOULD
   STRETCH/DEFORM BY 00Z...AND EXTEND FROM NRN NM SEWD TO NW TX.  SERN
   PORTION OF THIS FEATURE MAY BE SUFFUSED BY CONVECTIVELY GENERATED
   VORTICITY THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS SOME PROGS
   REASONABLY INDICATE...PERHAPS COLLOCATED WITH MCV FROM UPSCALE
   GROWTH OF EVENING CONVECTION OVER NW/W-CENTRAL TX.

   AT SFC...PRIMARY LOW ASSOCIATED WITH NRN-STREAM SYSTEM WAS EVIDENT
   AT 11Z NEAR ERN TIP OF MN ARROWHEAD...WITH DIFFUSE/FRONTOLYTIC
   BOUNDARY SWD ACROSS ERN WI THEN SWWD OVER CENTRAL MO.  LOW SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD INTO NWRN ONT WHILE TRAILING FRONT/SFC TROUGH
   MOVES EWD ACROSS LM AND IL TO LOWER MI AND WRN OH BY LATE AFTN. 
   DRYLINE ANALYZED INITIALLY OVER NWRN TX PANHANDLE...SERN NM TO MRF
   AREA SHOULD MIX EWD TODAY ACROSS FAR W TX AND OSCILLATE ERRATICALLY
   ELSEWHERE THROUGH PERIOD.

   ...SRN PLAINS...
   CONVECTION NOW INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER PARTS OF NWRN
   OK AND NRN TX PANHANDLE...WITHIN ELEVATED LOW-LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE-
   TRANSPORT REGIME...MAY POSE THREAT FOR SPORADIC SVR AS THEY MOVE
   SEWD THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING.  SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 776
   FOR MORE DETAILS.

   BASED ON LATEST SFC ANALYSIS AND CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS...THREE
   PRIMARY/MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES E OF DRYLINE ARE LIKELY TO INFLUENCE
   CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND SVR POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD...
   1. PRODUCED DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BY COMBINATION OF OUTFLOW AND
   DIFFERENTIAL HEATING RELATED TO PRECIP AND CLOUD SHIELD FROM
   AFOREMENTIONED MORNING ACTIVITY.  THIS SHOULD DEMARCATE EFFECTIVE
   NRN BOUND TO SUBSTANTIAL SFC-BASED/DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND
   AOA-15% SVR PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED THEREWITH. 
   HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IN SPECIFIC POSITIONING OF
   THIS FEATURE THAT ANY ASSOCIATED ADJUSTMENT OF SLGT-RISK AREA WILL
   BE DEFERRED TO LATER OUTLOOK.
   2.  MIDDLE/STRONGEST BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENTLY WEAKENING
   CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...AND LOCATED FROM ERN FRINGES OF DFW METROPLEX
   SWWD ACROSS NRN HILL COUNTRY TO EDWARDS PLATEAU.
   3.  SRN BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER S-CENTRAL TX...WHICH
   ARCS WNWWD NEAR DRT/6R6...AND WHICH SHOULD MERGE ON WRN END WITH
   MIDDLE BOUNDARY THROUGH AFTN.

   NET EFFECT OF SRN TWO COLD POOLS WILL BE TO REDUCE PW AVAILABLE TO
   AFTN/EVENING CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY WITH NWD EXTENT...AND TO
   INCREASE VERTICAL MIXING/LCL HEIGHT AS AIR ADVECTING NWWD FROM THOSE
   COLD POOLS IS DIABATICALLY HEATED.  MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY GENERALLY
   SHOULD INCREASE WITH SWD EXTENT THROUGH PERMIAN BASIN REGION WHERE
   RECOVERY IS MORE PROBABLE...AND THIS IS MANIFEST IN FCST SOUNDINGS
   FROM RECENT SHORT-FUSED MODELS THAT DEPICT MLCAPE TOPPING 3000 J/KG
   S OF I-20 IN W TX.  ROUGHLY 35-KT 500-MB SPEED MAX FORECAST TO SHIFT
   ENEWD FROM SRN NM AND FAR W TX...ACROSS TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS/
   PERMIAN BASIN REGIONS BY 00Z...SHOULD HELP TO STRENGTHEN DEEP SHEAR
   IN SUPPORT OF ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH A MIXTURE OF MULTICELLULAR AND
   SUPERCELLULAR MODES ANTICIPATED.  BY LATE AFTN...UPPER/ANVIL-LEVEL
   WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGER WITH SWD EXTENT FROM NRN PANHANDLE TO
   PERMIAN BASIN.  GIVEN THESE FACTORS...AS WELL AS OVERALL SMALL
   LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE VERY SMALL-SCALE/LOCALIZED
   EFFECTS...5% TORNADO RISK IS BEING COMPRESSED SWD OVER W TX. 
   POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL ALSO IS EXPANDED SWD...WITH
   SOME HAIL ANALOGS AND 2D HAILCAST MODEL SUGGESTING POSSIBILITY OF
   3-4 INCH DIAMETER HAILSTONES.  ONE OR TWO MCS CLUSTERS ALSO MAY
   EVOLVE FROM AFTN CONVECTION OVER SOUTH PLAINS/NW TX AND SW TX
   REGIONS AND MOVE SEWD...OFFERING DAMAGING-WIND RISK THIS EVENING AND
   EARLY TONIGHT.

   ...CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION...
   SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AREAS OF MIDDLE-60S F DEW POINTS ACROSS THIS
   REGION.  IN COMBINATION WITH SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND WEAK BOUNDARY-
   LAYER LIFT INVOF FRONT/TROUGH...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
   WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTN DESPITE MODEST
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  PREDOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE
   MULTICELLULAR...GIVEN 25-35 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDE OVER MOST
   AREAS AS EVIDENT IN FCST SOUNDINGS.  STILL...ISOLATED SVR HAIL OR
   DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR.  MRGL SVR THREAT SHOULD CEASE AFTER SUNSET
   AS DIABATIC COOLING SETS IN.

   ...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
   LATEST NHC FCSTS PRODUCTS DOCUMENT WEAKENING OF BONNIE AND PRESENCE
   OF VERY SPARSE/SHALLOW/SKELETAL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...WITH
   ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY FCST.  FURTHERMORE...COASTAL NC
   VWPS HAVE UNDERGONE GRADUAL WEAKENING/SHRINKING OF LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS AS APPARENT IN 8-HOUR ANIMATION OF HALF-HOURLY VWP
   DESPITE CENTER OF CIRCULATION MOVING TO SHORE.  GIVEN THESE
   FACTORS...AND PER COORDINATION W/NHC AND AFFECTED LOCAL OFFICES...
   TORNADO PROBABILITIES ARE BEING DROPPED WITH THIS UPDATE.  SEE NHC
   ADVISORIES UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON
   BONNIE.

   ..EDWARDS/ROGERS.. 05/29/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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