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    Day 2 Outlook >
Feb 27, 2015 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Feb 27 12:53:01 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150227 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150227 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 271253

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0653 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

   VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SPORADIC WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY FROM THE OREGON COAST
   SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGIONS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CHARACTERIZE UPPER-AIR PATTERN ACROSS
   CONUS THIS PERIOD.  HOWEVER...WITHIN THAT CYCLONIC
   PATTERN...MID/UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE FROM CENTRAL/SRN
   ROCKIES EWD ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS REGION....AS STG SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH DIGS SWD ACROSS PAC NW AND NRN CA.  THAT PERTURBATION -- NOW
   EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WA/ORE COAST AND ADJACENT
   PAC WATERS -- WILL PHASE WITH TRAILING VORTICITY FIELD AS IT MOVES
   SSEWD.  

   E OF ROCKIES...CENTER OF BIG/LOW-THETAE ANTICYCLONE WILL SHIFT EWD
   ACROSS MIDWEST AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 
   ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL KEEP TSTM-SUPPORTING MOISTURE
   SHUNTED AWAY FROM INLAND AREAS. 

   ...ORE COAST SEWD OVER INTERIOR WRN CONUS...
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT/COOLING ALOFT RELATED TO POCKETS OF DCVA WILL
   SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION...JUXTAPOSED BY AFTN WITH AREAS OF
   TEMPORALLY MAXIMIZED SFC TEMPS AWAY FROM PRECIP.  ASSOCIATED
   STEEPENING OF LOW/MIDDLE-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MRGL MOISTURE WILL
   SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.  LEFT-EXIT
   REGION OF 250-MB JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED PROGRESSIVE
   TROUGHING WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF GEN TSTM AREA THIS
   AFTN...FURTHER CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION ALOFT VIA
   AGEOSTROPHICALLY DRIVEN ASCENT.  EVEN THEN...BUOYANCY WILL BE WEAK
   WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MLCAPE LESS THAN 200 J/KG IN MOST
   AREAS.

   ..EDWARDS/GLEASON.. 02/27/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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Page last modified: February 27, 2015
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