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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 23, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jul 23 12:59:28 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140723 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140723 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 231259

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0759 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

   VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN WA EWD INTO THE NRN
   PLNS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OZARKS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY FROM PARTS OF
   WASHINGTON EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE OVER THE BLACK HILLS
   REGION. STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS MAY OCCUR FROM EASTERN
   NEW YORK INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ISOLATED SEVERE
   STORMS MAY OCCUR FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
   OZARKS.

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   STRONG RIDGE WILL REMAIN STNRY OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL RCKYS THIS
   PERIOD AS POTENT NE PAC LOW/TROUGH ACCELERATES E/NE INTO SRN BC/ERN
   WA. E OF THE RIDGE...EXISTING TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GRT LKS
   AND OH/TN VLYS...STRENGTHENING ASSOCIATED WSW FLOW OVER THE NERN
   STATES.

   AT LWR LVLS...A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ENE TO THE
   ID-WA-ORE BORDER BY THIS EVE...AND INTO WRN MT EARLY THU...AS
   MOIST...SELY FLOW AND LEE CYCLONE STRENGTHEN OVER THE NRN HIGH PLNS.

   ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE
   LWR GRT LKS...AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATER TODAY/TNGT...WHILE
   ITS WRN EXTENT BECOMES NEARLY STNRY OVER THE LWR MS VLY...THE SRN
   OZARKS AND THE SRN PLNS.

   ...ERN WA/NRN ID EWD INTO THE NRN PLNS TODAY/TNGT...
   WA/ORE COLD FRONT SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STRONG STORMS LATER
   TODAY AS IT AND ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE TRACK ENE INTO ID THIS EVE...AND
   INTO WRN MT LATER TNGT. STRONG SFC HEATING AND MID-LVL
   COOLING/ASCENT AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED UPR TROUGH WILL AID STORM
   DEVELOPMENT...WITH AMPLE SHEAR/BUOYANCY FOR SUSTAINED
   STORMS/SUPERCELLS. THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF SVR WIND AND HAIL.

   FARTHER E...A SEPARATE AREA OF SVR STORMS MAY ARISE THIS AFTN AND
   EVE OVER CNTRL AND NRN MT...ON WRN FRINGE OF LOW-LVL SELY FLOW
   ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING LEE LOW/TROUGH. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL RISE
   INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S F...ENHANCING BUOYANCY GIVEN STRONG SFC
   HEATING AND STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. STRONG...VERTICALLY-VEERING
   WIND PROFILES WILL YIELD SIZABLE/CURVED HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/PERHAPS VERY LARGE/...ALONG WITH DAMAGING
   WINDS...AND TORNADOES.

   THE NRN MT STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A CLUSTER OR TWO LATER THIS EVE
   THAT MOVES EWD INTO NE MT WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR SVR. AROUND THE
   SAME TIME...AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF STORMS MAY FORM OVER WRN ND SEWD
   INTO CNTRL SD AS WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM FROM
   ACCELERATING WA/ORE TROUGH. DEEP EML AND AVAILABILITY OF RICH
   MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT THESE ELEVATED STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
   FOR LARGE HAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

   ...BLACK HILLS/ERN WY THIS AFTN/EVE...
   WEAKLY UPSLOPE SSELY FLOW AND SFC HEATING MAY INITIATE ISOLD SVR
   STORMS LATE THIS AFTN OVER ERN WY/WRN SD. WHILE DEEP SHEAR WILL BE
   LESS THAN THAT IN MT...IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN
   VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS. ALTHOUGH SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR AS
   FAVORABLE AS YESTERDAY/S...A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SVR HAIL AND
   LOCALLY DMGG WIND WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM.

   ...ERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND...
   WSWLY UPR FLOW AND ASCENT WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
   FRONT TODAY...WITH DEEP SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KTS. WHILE
   RICHER MOISTURE WILL REMAINED CONFINED TO POINTS WELL S INVOF
   STALLED FRONT OVER CAROLINA CST...WITH MODERATE HEATING SUFFICIENT
   INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP FOR SCTD STRONG AFTN STORMS WITH LOCALLY
   DMGG WIND GUSTS. SMALL HAIL ALSO MAY OCCUR.

   ...LWR OH VLY SW INTO OZARKS THIS AFTN/EVE...
   SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...WITH
   STRENGTHENING DEEP NELY FLOW ON SE SIDE OF RCKYS UPR RIDGE...MAY
   SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT AND SWWD MOTION OF A STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR
   MCS OVER PARTS OF SRN MO...AR...AND SE OK LATER TODAY. STRONG
   HEATING WILL OCCUR BENEATH 30-40 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL 700-500 MB FLOW
   ON SRN FRINGE OF EML. COUPLED WITH COINCIDENT CORRIDOR OF HIGH /1.75
   INCH/ PW...SETUP MAY YIELD A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SW-PROPAGATING
   LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND. THE 12Z RAOB DATA AT SGF AND LIT
   SUPPORT THIS IDEA...WITH WEAK CIN AT LIT AND DEEP/STOUT EML AT SGF.
   IF STORMS DO INDEED FORM...THEY MOST LIKELY WOULD INITIATE EITHER
   ALONG COLD FRONT SETTLING S THROUGH THE OZARKS...OR WITH ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT ON SRN SIDE OF EML .

   ..CORFIDI/MOSIER.. 07/23/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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