Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Feb 12, 2012 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Feb 12 12:40:04 UTC 2012  (Print Version)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 121235
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0635 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012
   
   VALID 121300Z - 131200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE LOWER
   CO RIVER VALLEY WILL PROGRESS EWD TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. COLD
   MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-25C TO -23C AT 500 MB/ WILL SUPPORT
   SUFFICIENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST MID-LEVEL
   MOISTURE AND ASCENT /AUGMENTED BY OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS/ FOR ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS FROM UT AND NRN/ERN AZ INTO THE SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES
   DURING THE DAY.
   
   MEANWHILE...SFC PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
   CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...OWING TO THE EWD MOTION OF A BROAD
   ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN STATES AND THE WLY COMPONENT OF THE
   MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES. A SFC TROUGH AND LOW WILL BECOME
   BETTER DEFINED OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN
   THE PERIOD...AS A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IN THE BASE OF THE
   AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CROSSES THE SWRN STATES AND SRN ROCKIES BEFORE
   APPROACHING TX. AS THIS OCCURS...A LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
   CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND PROMOTE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WAA
   ATOP A SFC-BASED COLD LAYER. WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN THE PRESENCE
   OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
   TONIGHT ACROSS WRN/CNTRL TX AND SERN NM.
   
   ..COHEN/MEAD.. 02/12/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: February 12, 2012
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities