Jul 25, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jul 25 12:44:02 UTC 2014 (20140725 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140725 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140725 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140725 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140725 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 350,873 38,284,438 Chicago, IL...Phoenix, AZ...Milwaukee, WI...Denver, CO...Tucson, AZ...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140725 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 249,189 26,986,772 Chicago, IL...Milwaukee, WI...Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Madison, WI...
   SPC AC 251244

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0744 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

   VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
   INTO TONIGHT WITH A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE
   MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.  OTHER ISOLATED STRONG
   WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND
   EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTH CENTRAL
   AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.

   ...MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...
   A MIDLEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TODAY OVER SRN SK...AND THEN
   BEGIN TO MOVE ESEWD TONIGHT AFTER CRESTING THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE OVER
   THE NRN PLAINS.  MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF EMBEDDED LOW-AMPLITUDE
   SPEED MAXIMA WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MIDLEVEL
   LOW TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  ONE SUCH WAVE WILL CONTINUE SEWD FROM
   WRN IA THIS MORNING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SEGMENT OF THE LLJ
   SUPPORTING WAA AND CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.  ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
   ON THE SRN AND WRN FLANKS OF THE CLUSTERS TODAY AS THE LOW LEVELS
   DESTABILIZE FROM THE W.  HOWEVER...A WARM EML WILL LIKELY CAP TRUE
   SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS IA/NRN MO.

   LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ANOTHER SPEED MAX WILL PROGRESS
   FROM THE DAKOTAS TO MN/WI.  ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE MAY
   SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER SEWD-MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS
   ACROSS WI AND VICINITY WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK.  LIKE AREAS
   FARTHER TO THE S...LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY BE OFFSET
   BY A STRENGTHENING EML...SUCH THAT SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT IS IN QUESTION.

   ...CENTRAL/ERN SC AND VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON...
   A LINGERING FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE AND WEAK ASSOCIATED
   MIDLEVEL TROUGH...ALONG WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS...WILL
   FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  THOUGH LAPSE RATES
   WILL BE RATHER POOR ALOFT...MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND PW VALUES
   NEAR 2 INCHES COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS
   WITH WET MICROBURSTS.

   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
   STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING OF RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   WILL RESULT IN WEAK-MODERATE BUOYANCY AND INVERTED-V PROFILES THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN CO...WHERE A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS WITH STRONG
   OUTFLOW GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  REMNANTS OF THIS CONVECTION COULD
   SURVIVE INTO WRN KS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.  FARTHER N INTO SE
   WY...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER BUT INSTABILITY WILL ONLY BE
   MARGINAL FOR AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING.

   ...S CENTRAL/SW AZ THIS AFTERNOON...
   STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
   LEAD TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES AOA 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE LOWER
   DESERTS OF S CENTRAL AND SW AZ...WHERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
   BE POSSIBLE.  THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL FAVOR HYBRID
   MICROBURSTS...WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS
   AND BLOWING DUST.

   ..THOMPSON/JIRAK.. 07/25/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z