Oct 24, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Oct 24 12:28:12 UTC 2014 (20141024 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141024 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141024 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141024 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141024 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141024 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 241228

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0728 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

   VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
   KEYS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY
   WELL-DEFINED/SYNOPTIC-SCALE RIDGE -- NOW LOCATED OVER ROCKY MOUNTAIN
   STATES.  THIS RIDGE IS FCST TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE SLIGHTLY EWD TO HIGH
   PLAINS THROUGH PERIOD...WITH BROADENING FLANKS OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.
   SOME OF THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL BE RELATED TO DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH NOW OVER SRN SK AND FCST TO STRENGTHEN GREATLY BY 12Z AS IT
   REACHES NRN ONT AND LS.  FARTHER SE...NEARLY PHASED SHORTWAVE
   TROUGHS PRESENTLY OVER INDIANA AND PORTIONS MS/AL WILL DIG SEWD AND
   BECOME MORE CLOSELY CONNECTED.  BY END OF PERIOD...SUBSTANTIAL
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT FROM COASTAL CAROLINAS SSWWD ACROSS
   CENTRAL FL TO EXTREME ERN GULF.

   MEANWHILE...HIGH-AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NERN
   PAC...WITH STRONG/BASAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED W OF CA BETWEEN
   135W-140W.  LATTER PERTURBATION SHOULD PIVOT ENEWD TOWARD W COAST. 
   HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH PRECEDING RIBBON OF STG
   MID-UPPER-LEVEL DCVA STILL SHOULD BE POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE AROUND
   12Z.  ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE AND ACCOMPANYING PRECIP BAND
   MAY MOVE INLAND DURING LAST 4-6 HOURS OF PERIOD...BUT WITH LAPSE
   RATES TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT AOA 10% GEN-TSTM RISK INLAND.

   ...S FL AND KEYS...
   RESIDUAL/LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN OVER PORTIONS FL
   STRAITS/KEYS THROUGH TODAY.  FRONTAL ZONE THEN SHOULD START MOVING
   SWD AGAIN...AS SERN-CONUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APCHS WITH WEAK
   FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLOGENESIS PASSING ENEWD OVER STRAITS AND BAHAMAS. 
   ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL WAA AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
   ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTIVE PLUME ACROSS THIS REGION...INCLUDING
   ISOLATED/EMBEDDED THUNDER.  ALTHOUGH BULK OF CONVECTION DEEP ENOUGH
   TO GENERATE LTG SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE...SOME TSTMS MAY BRUSH SERN
   PENINSULA AND/OR KEYS.

   ..EDWARDS/JIRAK.. 10/24/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z