Mar 24, 2017 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Mar 24 12:48:10 UTC 2017 (20170324 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170324 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170324 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 27,058 1,350,127 Shreveport, LA...Longview, TX...Bossier City, LA...Texarkana, TX...Texarkana, AR...
SLIGHT 173,800 10,243,049 Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Little Rock, AR...Springfield, MO...Topeka, KS...
MARGINAL 121,068 18,933,044 Houston, TX...Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Kansas City, MO...St. Louis, MO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170324 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 66,226 3,597,697 Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Tyler, TX...Longview, TX...Bossier City, LA...
2 % 137,984 13,791,013 Houston, TX...Memphis, TN...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Springfield, MO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170324 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 % 27,058 1,350,127 Shreveport, LA...Longview, TX...Bossier City, LA...Texarkana, TX...Texarkana, AR...
15 % 146,442 8,117,399 Tulsa, OK...Little Rock, AR...Springfield, MO...Tyler, TX...Broken Arrow, OK...
5 % 124,831 19,666,686 Houston, TX...Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170324 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 140,691 8,955,573 Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Shreveport, LA...Topeka, KS...Tyler, TX...
5 % 144,307 16,628,453 Houston, TX...Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Kansas City, MO...Plano, TX...
   SPC AC 241248

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0748 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

   Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARK-LA-TEX...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL
   STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SIMILARLY
   SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the
   south-central U.S. late afternoon into tonight. Damaging winds and a
   few tornadoes appear most likely over the Ark-La-Tex.

   ...Synopsis...
   Vigorous shortwave trough over the south-central High Plains will
   dampen as it gradually shifts east into the Ozark Plateau by early
   Saturday, with an accompanying strong surface cyclone filling along
   a similar track. Despite weakening kinematic fields, magnitudes will
   remain strong through much of the period with both low/mid-level
   jets prevalent east of the synoptic wave. 

   ...South-Central States...
   Modifying warm-sector moisture should result in mean mixing ratios
   of 11-12 g/kg reaching eastern OK by afternoon and spreading into AR
   this evening ahead of a north/south-oriented Pacific cold
   front/effective dryline. Low-topped convection is already present
   near this front over central TX. This activity should gradually
   expand in coverage and deepen as diurnal destabilization occurs,
   especially during the afternoon. Effective shear magnitude around 50
   kt will support organized lines and embedded supercell structures
   with a mixed severe hail/wind risk. Probable consolidation into one
   or more QLCSs should support a predominant damaging wind and
   embedded tornado risk shifting east this evening where low-level
   hodographs will remain enlarged from southern MO towards the Sabine
   Valley. 

   Farther northwest across KS into eastern OK, a separate area of
   severe storms is anticipated mainly late afternoon to early evening
   near the surface cyclone and southwest/northeast-oriented surface
   front. While boundary-layer moisture will be comparatively limited,
   steepening mid-level lapse rates should compensate and yield a
   weakly to moderately unstable air mass. Low-level hodographs will be
   smaller with northwest extent in the warm sector. However, strong
   mid/upper-level speed shear should be favorable for hail growth,
   along with isolated severe winds.

   ..Grams/Gleason.. 03/24/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z