Jun 24, 2016 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jun 24 12:42:19 UTC 2016 (20160624 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160624 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160624 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 166,044 17,382,543 Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Greensboro, NC...
MARGINAL 422,608 28,171,797 Memphis, TN...Denver, CO...Washington, DC...Atlanta, GA...Colorado Springs, CO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160624 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 57,393 277,332 Minot, ND...Williston, ND...Devils Lake, ND...Glendive, MT...Sidney, MT...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160624 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 152,897 17,276,774 Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Greensboro, NC...
5 % 411,947 27,792,742 Memphis, TN...Denver, CO...Washington, DC...Atlanta, GA...Colorado Springs, CO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160624 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 166,757 17,448,287 Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Greensboro, NC...
5 % 422,232 28,045,860 Memphis, TN...Denver, CO...Washington, DC...Atlanta, GA...Colorado Springs, CO...
   SPC AC 241242

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0742 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

   VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM CENTRAL VA ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
   FROM NE MT TO NRN ND AND NW MN...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE OZARKS TO THE
   TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM
   CENTRAL MT TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND WIND ARE
   EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS TODAY
   WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS. 
   SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE
   NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

   ...VA/CAROLINAS TODAY...
   A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OH THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS ESEWD
   TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING...AS A DIFFUSE ASSOCIATED
   SURFACE FRONT DRIFTS SEWD ACROSS VA/NC.  CLOUDS ARE LINGERING FROM
   SRN VA TO UPSTATE SC...AND PROFILES HAVE BEEN STABILIZED SOMEWHAT BY
   WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING DURING THE PREVIOUS 24 HRS. 
   STILL...SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
   WELL INTO THE 60S WILL SUPPORT MODERATE BUOYANCY THIS AFTERNOON
   ALONG AND E OF THE DIFFUSE FRONT...AND WILL ALLOW AT LEAST WIDELY
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  DEEP-LAYER
   VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS
   AND/OR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STORMS...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

   ...NRN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...
   A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WA/ORE WILL MOVE EWD TO THE NRN
   ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING. 
   AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EWD TO CENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON
   AND THE WRN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT.  E OF THE COLD FRONT...LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE DAKOTAS
   TODAY...BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THE NET
   RESULT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE-STRONG BUOYANCY THIS
   AFTERNOON FROM ERN SD TO CENTRAL ND...WITH WEAKER BUOYANCY TO THE W
   INTO MT WITH LESSER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

   THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE COUNTERED BY WARMING
   LOW-MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...AND AN
   ASSOCIATED CAP.  THUS...SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS IN
   QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS ND...WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR
   WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  THE MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO IS FOR
   HIGH-BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE
   SURGING COLD FRONT IN MT...AND SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS NE MT/NW ND
   THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.  THIS CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  STORM COVERAGE FARTHER E REMAINS
   LESS CERTAIN IN THE WAA REGIME NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM NE
   ND INTO NW MN.  ANY STORMS THAT FORM IN THIS ZONE OVERNIGHT WILL BE
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
   LINGERING LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL AGAIN
   SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A LEE TROUGH NEAR THE FRONT
   RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD/NEWD THIS
   EVENING.  THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...STEEP
   LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH STRONG
   OUTFLOW WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

   ..THOMPSON/PICCA.. 06/24/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z