Nov 27, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Nov 27 12:27:32 UTC 2014 (20141127 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141127 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141127 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141127 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141127 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141127 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 271227

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0627 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

   VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THIS SHOULD BE A NO-THUNDER THANKSGIVING OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY WRN RIDGING AND ERN
   TROUGHING THROUGH PERIOD.  HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE DEAMPLIFICATION
   WILL OCCUR AS ERN SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH MOVES TO ATLANTIC AND
   HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL ACROSS MOST OF WRN CONUS.  THROUGH DAY-1
   PERIOD...ANY NERN-PACIFIC PERTURBATIONS POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF
   ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT TSTMS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. 
   MEANWHILE...RECENT SFC COLD FROPA OFF E COAST AND THROUGH GULF OF
   MEXICO HAS LEFT AIR MASS E OF ROCKIES TOO DRY AND/OR STABLE FOR
   TSTMS.

   ..EDWARDS/MOSIER.. 11/27/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z