SPC AC 091234
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 AM CST TUE FEB 09 2010
VALID 091300Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PHASING OF WEAKENING SRN STREAM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED INTENSE SRN
STREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL JET...WITH DOMINANT NRN STREAM SYSTEM OVER
THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...WILL OCCUR OVER THE MID
WEST/APPALACHIANS TODAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENT SYSTEM AND
ATTENDANT NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER OH
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT...WITH DEEPENING/ CONSOLIDATING
SURFACE CYCLONE OCCURRING JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT VORTICITY
MAXIMUM/MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION WILL DIG SEWD ALONG THE CA COAST.
...N-CNTRL AND NERN GULF COAST...INCLUDING FL...
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF
SRN STREAM SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS FL
TODAY. HOWEVER...DEEP ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT OVER FL...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF STREAM OFF THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE...A SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR
THE NC COAST.
...CA INTO LOWER CO VALLEY...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING INCREASED ASCENT AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ALONG THE CENTRAL/SRN CA COAST TODAY...AND INTO THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AHEAD OF INTENSE SYSTEM DIGGING SWD
ALONG THE CO COAST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED.
..EVANS.. 02/09/2010
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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