Aug 31, 2015 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Aug 31 12:45:36 UTC 2015 (20150831 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150831 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150831 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150831 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150831 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150831 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 311245

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0745 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

   VALID 311300Z - 011200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED
   STATES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE NERN PACIFIC INTO WRN
   NORTH AMERICA WHILE A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IS DAMPENED DUE TO THE NEWD
   PROGRESSION OF A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FROM NEAR THE MT-ND
   BORDER TO JAMES BAY.  ELSEWHERE...A VORTICITY MAXIMUM SITUATED OVER
   THE WRN CAROLINAS WILL WEAKEN WHILE DRIFTING NEWD INTO THE SRN MID
   ATLANTIC REGION.

   ...ERN CAROLINAS TODAY...

   THE NEWD PROGRESSION OF THE WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL INDUCE
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE WAVE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED
   ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  DEEP-LAYER GRADIENT FLOW AND RESULTANT
   VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD EARLY-DAY
   CONVECTION WILL LIMIT SUBSTANTIAL AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. 
   THUS...WHILE A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH SUSTAINED
   CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF THE MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW...THIS
   POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES.

   ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

   FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA RELATED TO A MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION EMERGING
   FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY INVOF A WEAK LEE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
   TROUGH/FRONT.  INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY SUPPORT GUSTY
   WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

   ..MEAD/GLEASON.. 08/31/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z