Nov 24, 2017 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Nov 24 12:26:03 UTC 2017 (20171124 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20171124 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20171124 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20171124 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20171124 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20171124 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 241226

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0626 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

   Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida
   Peninsula and Keys.

   ...Synopsis...
   In mid/upper levels, mean troughing over the eastern U.S. will
   persist.  Meanwhile western ridging will amplify again, following
   the departure of a positively tilted shortwave now over parts of
   MT/ID/OR.  A well-defined/southern-stream shortwave trough -- now
   evident in moisture-channel imagery over the extreme eastern Gulf of
   Mexico -- will cross FL through the daytime hours.

   At the surface, an elongated frontal-wave low offshore from the FL
   Atlantic coast is expected to consolidate and ripple northeastward
   along the boundary today, while the trailing cold front proceeds
   southeastward down the remainder of the peninsula and across the
   Keys by late this evening and overnight. 

   ...FL...
   Thunder coverage today over land looks to be much more limited than
   evident in the previous outlook.  Showers and isolated thunderstorms
   are possible primarily over southeastern areas into early afternoon,
   as boundary-layer heating/mixing reduces MLCINH and weak convergence
   supports development, amidst favorable low-level moisture.  Modified
   12Z MFL RAOB and model forecast soundings suggest 800-1200 J/kg
   MLCAPE is possible.  Lack of more robust deep shear, lift and lapse
   rates indicates minimal severe potential.  As the afternoon
   progresses, isallobaric forcing related to offshore Atlantic
   cyclogenesis will veer prefrontal surface winds and reduce
   convergence.  At the same time, large-scale subsidence behind the
   aforementioned southern-stream perturbation, as evident in
   moisture-channel drying, will spread eastward across the region,
   further disfavoring additional/substantial convective potential.

   ..Edwards.. 11/24/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z