Feb 11, 2016 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Feb 11 12:32:13 UTC 2016 (20160211 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160211 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160211 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160211 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160211 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160211 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 111232

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0632 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

   VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES
   TODAY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN CONUS THROUGH THE
   PERIOD WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  AN EMBEDDED
   SPEED MAX WILL PROGRESS SEWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING
   TO THE TN VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  PREVIOUS FRONTAL INTRUSIONS AND
   SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIMIT AIR MASS
   MODIFICATION AND MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE GULF COAST...SUCH THAT
   DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SPEED MAX
   AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE...A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW COAST EARLY FRIDAY...BUT
   MEAGER BUOYANCY SUGGESTS THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY.

   ..THOMPSON/COOK.. 02/11/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z