Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Shreveport, LA...Longview, TX...Bossier City, LA...Texarkana, TX...Texarkana, AR...
Tulsa, OK...Little Rock, AR...Springfield, MO...Tyler, TX...Broken Arrow, OK...
Houston, TX...Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Houston, TX...Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Kansas City, MO...Plano, TX...
SPC AC 241248
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017
Valid 241300Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARK-LA-TEX...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SIMILARLY
SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK...
Scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the
south-central U.S. late afternoon into tonight. Damaging winds and a
few tornadoes appear most likely over the Ark-La-Tex.
Vigorous shortwave trough over the south-central High Plains will
dampen as it gradually shifts east into the Ozark Plateau by early
Saturday, with an accompanying strong surface cyclone filling along
a similar track. Despite weakening kinematic fields, magnitudes will
remain strong through much of the period with both low/mid-level
jets prevalent east of the synoptic wave.
Modifying warm-sector moisture should result in mean mixing ratios
of 11-12 g/kg reaching eastern OK by afternoon and spreading into AR
this evening ahead of a north/south-oriented Pacific cold
front/effective dryline. Low-topped convection is already present
near this front over central TX. This activity should gradually
expand in coverage and deepen as diurnal destabilization occurs,
especially during the afternoon. Effective shear magnitude around 50
kt will support organized lines and embedded supercell structures
with a mixed severe hail/wind risk. Probable consolidation into one
or more QLCSs should support a predominant damaging wind and
embedded tornado risk shifting east this evening where low-level
hodographs will remain enlarged from southern MO towards the Sabine
Farther northwest across KS into eastern OK, a separate area of
severe storms is anticipated mainly late afternoon to early evening
near the surface cyclone and southwest/northeast-oriented surface
front. While boundary-layer moisture will be comparatively limited,
steepening mid-level lapse rates should compensate and yield a
weakly to moderately unstable air mass. Low-level hodographs will be
smaller with northwest extent in the warm sector. However, strong
mid/upper-level speed shear should be favorable for hail growth,
along with isolated severe winds.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z