May 22, 2015 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri May 22 12:31:32 UTC 2015 (20150522 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150522 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150522 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 56,920 381,614 Roswell, NM...Clovis, NM...Hobbs, NM...Carlsbad, NM...Portales, NM...
MARGINAL 69,843 1,915,338 Aurora, CO...Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150522 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 19,212 68,792 Pecos, TX...
2 % 106,523 2,121,798 Aurora, CO...Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150522 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 30,436 192,325 Hobbs, NM...Carlsbad, NM...Artesia, NM...Lovington, NM...Pecos, TX...
5 % 96,041 2,046,182 Aurora, CO...Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150522 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 57,475 389,614 Roswell, NM...Clovis, NM...Hobbs, NM...Carlsbad, NM...Portales, NM...
5 % 68,732 1,840,094 Aurora, CO...Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...
   SPC AC 221231

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0731 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

   VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NM AND
   WEST/SOUTHWEST TX...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST CO...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NORTHEAST CO...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
   SOUTHWEST TEXAS...AND A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST COLORADO. 
   THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCLUDING SOME SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE
   THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TO WEST
   TEXAS.

   ...SOUTHWEST TX...
   MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
   SOUTHWEST STATES.  A VIGOROUS LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
   LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CO...WHILE A SECOND STRONG TROUGH
   IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CA.  THIS WILL LEAVE THE SOUTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
   TODAY...SUGGESTING ONLY ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE FROM SOUTHWEST TX
   INTO EASTERN NM.  THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE MULTIPLE STRONG STORMS
   WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST
   TX...WHERE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE CAPE VALUES WILL BE
   PRESENT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
   PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.

   ISOLATED STORMS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NM DURING THE
   EVENING...BUT A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
   TO DEVELOP AFTER DARK OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NM.  THE STORMS THAT FORM
   MAY INITIALLY HAVE SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS WITH A RISK OF
   LARGE HAIL.  BUT UPSCALE GROWTH SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE 06Z AS ACTIVITY
   MOVES TOWARDS THE TX PANHANDLE AND SLOWLY WEAKENS.

   ...NORTHEAST CO...
   MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
   CO...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN OCCURRING ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM NORTHEAST
   CO INTO NORTHWEST KS.  MOST MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
   WARM FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR BETWEEN DEN AND GLD BY
   MID-LATE AFTERNOON.  STRONGER HEATING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
   BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WILL RESULT IN A NARROW ZONE
   OF RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  SEVERAL CAMS DEVELOP
   ONE OR MORE SUPERCELL STORMS IN THIS AREA.  GIVEN THE FORECAST WIND
   FIELD...HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE.

   ..HART/GLEASON.. 05/22/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z