Jul 30, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jul 30 12:59:04 UTC 2014 (20140730 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140730 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140730 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140730 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 24,242 806,113 Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Sherman, TX...Ardmore, OK...Denison, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140730 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 44,183 1,538,649 Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Sherman, TX...Ardmore, OK...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140730 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 44,673 1,364,406 Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Sherman, TX...Ardmore, OK...
   SPC AC 301259

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0759 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

   VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
   NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

   ...SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
   GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED MIDLEVEL
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ESEWD THROUGH SWRN KS...WILL
   TRACK INTO CENTRAL OK BY THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH THE OK-AR BORDER
   BY 31/12Z.  EARLY MORNING SURFACE/STREAMLINE ANALYSES SHOWED AN AREA
   OF LOW PRESSURE IN FAR SWRN KS WITH A WIND SHIFT EXTENDING SEWD
   THROUGH NRN TO EAST-CENTRAL OK.  A SECOND BOUNDARY EXTENDED
   GENERALLY W-E ACROSS NORTH TX TO SERN NM.  MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT
   TRAILING SWWD FROM THE KS LOW WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
   WITH TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INVOF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ERN TX
   PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF WRN-SWRN OK AND WRN NORTH TX DURING
   THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

   TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF RAIN/EMBEDDED
   CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM SWRN KS THROUGH THE ERN OK/TX PANHANDLES
   THROUGH MUCH OF OK TO FAR NORTH TX.  THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
   TSTMS WAS LOCATED OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK...CLOSER TO
   THE MIDLEVEL IMPULSE.  GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
   THE SLY LLJ SHIFTING EWD TO NORTH TX AND OK...DPVA WITH THE TROUGH
   AND LOW-LEVEL WAA SUGGEST THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS
   AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD.  DIFFERENTIAL
   HEATING ALONG THE SWRN-SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS LARGE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
   SHOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH THE SWRN
   KS SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THIS FEATURE INTO THE SERN TX
   PANHANDLE BY 31/00Z AND THEN INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX BY 31/12Z. 

   A MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS PRESENT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
   WITH PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1.4-1.9 INCHES PER 12Z SOUNDINGS. 
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS ACROSS
   THE WRN TX PANHANDLE.  AS THE SRN PLAINS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHIFTS
   EWD...ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS/SURFACE HEATING SHOULD DEVELOP
   AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES PER 12Z SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME REMAIN A
   LIMITING FACTOR FOR STRONGER DESTABILIZATION TODAY AND HIGHER SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES. MLCAPE SHOULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG.  THIS COMBINED WITH
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT AND DPVA ATTENDANT TO THE TROUGH
   WILL SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED STORMS FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   THE EARLY EVENING.  LOCATIONS WITH STRONGER MIXING/STEEPER LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES COULD ENHANCE A THREAT FOR STRONGER WIND GUST. 
   VERTICALLY-VEERING WINDS...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
   BOUNDARY...COULD PROVE MORE FAVORABLE FOR A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT. 
   MEANWHILE...THE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE SIZE
   OF ANY HAIL PRODUCTION.

   IF LATER DATA SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN
   THAT CURRENTLY FORECAST...AN UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK
   MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

   ..PETERS/BOTHWELL.. 07/30/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z