Jan 16, 2017 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jan 16 12:55:59 UTC 2017 (20170116 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170116 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170116 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 65,714 8,608,655 Houston, TX...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Pasadena, TX...Longview, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170116 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 59,174 8,301,793 Houston, TX...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Pasadena, TX...Sugar Land, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170116 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 64,417 8,677,880 Houston, TX...Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Pasadena, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170116 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 19,008 1,292,127 Shreveport, LA...Longview, TX...Bossier City, LA...Hot Springs, AR...Texarkana, TX...
   SPC AC 161255

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0655 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

   Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST TX TO
   MID-MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe storms are possible this morning over east Texas,
   and in the late afternoon and evening from the Arklatex to the
   Mid-Mississippi Valley. Damaging winds, a brief tornado, and small
   to marginally severe hail are anticipated.

   ...East TX to Mid-MS Valley...
   Surface cyclone over south-central KS will shift into northeast MO
   by evening. Attendant Pacific cold front will arc south then
   southwest, becoming quasi-stationary across parts of southeast to
   south-central TX. Partially modified Gulf air will advect
   north ahead of this front, with upper 50s F dewpoints as far north
   as the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers and generally 60s F from the
   Mid-South to western Gulf Coast.

   A swath of showers and rather isolated thunderstorms are ongoing
   within the warm-conveyor belt from MO to east TX. This convection
   should decrease in coverage and intensity into early afternoon, but
   widespread clouds should persist over much of warm sector. Weak
   mid-level lapse rates will further limit instability with MLCAPE
   largely at or below 500 J/kg. Potential will exist for widely
   scattered thunderstorms to redevelop in the late afternoon and early
   evening near the impinging cold front. 35-45 kt effective shear
   would support a conditional risk for organized updrafts/line
   segments. However, stronger large-scale ascent should remain
   divorced from where surface-based instability is prevalent. This in
   conjunction with the overall marginal thermodynamic environment
   should limit a more substantial severe threat.

   ..Grams.. 01/16/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z