Mar 28, 2015 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Mar 28 12:42:28 UTC 2015 (20150328 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150328 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150328 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150328 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150328 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150328 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 281242

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0742 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

   VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
   GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.  OTHER ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF WYOMING.

   ...NRN PLAINS AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
   A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WA/ORE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD
   OVER THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY...BEFORE TURNING ESEWD OVER THE NRN
   PLAINS TONIGHT AS THE WAVE PROGRESSES DOWNSTREAM FROM THE PERSISTENT
   RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES.  A BELT OF ASCENT/MOISTENING IMMEDIATELY
   AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHERE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
   HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVERNIGHT...WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS MT TODAY.  BY
   MID-LATE AFTERNOON...SURFACE HEATING/MIXING WILL STEEPEN LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES...REDUCE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND SUPPORT THE
   FORMATION OF A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS BELT OF ASCENT
   ACROSS ERN MT.  MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INVERTED-V PROFILES
   COULD SUPPORT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MT
   ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH.

   OVERNIGHT...ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA AND DIFFERENTIAL CVA.  ABSOLUTE
   MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE LIMITED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
   MIDLEVEL MOISTENING IN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT TO WEAK
   BUOYANCY.

   ..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 03/28/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z