Nov 23, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 23 12:52:31 UTC 2014 (20141123 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141123 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141123 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 11,769 792,100 Dothan, AL...Panama City, FL...Enterprise, AL...Lynn Haven, FL...Ozark, AL...
SLIGHT 109,799 10,240,485 Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...Columbus, GA...Tallahassee, FL...Savannah, GA...
MARGINAL 98,966 16,597,969 Virginia Beach, VA...Atlanta, GA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Birmingham, AL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141123 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
10 % 11,769 792,100 Dothan, AL...Panama City, FL...Wright, FL...Enterprise, AL...Fort Walton Beach, FL...
5 % 90,170 8,848,927 Mobile, AL...Columbus, GA...Tallahassee, FL...Savannah, GA...Fayetteville, NC...
2 % 66,280 9,653,532 Virginia Beach, VA...Atlanta, GA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141123 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 121,339 11,012,640 Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...Columbus, GA...Tallahassee, FL...Savannah, GA...
5 % 98,835 16,476,283 Virginia Beach, VA...Atlanta, GA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Birmingham, AL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141123 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 50,311 3,098,008 Tallahassee, FL...Albany, GA...Dothan, AL...Pensacola, FL...Valdosta, GA...
   SPC AC 231252

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0652 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

   VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY INTO THE TIDEWATER REGION...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST TO
   THE ERN CAROLINAS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PART OF THE NERN GULF
   COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES
   WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST
   STATES. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST
   THROUGH PARTS OF GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO TONIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A 90-100 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL PROGRESS
   SEWD THROUGH THE BASE OF A DEEPENING LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL
   U.S. BEFORE TURNING NEWD AND INTENSIFYING/BROADENING TONIGHT FROM
   THE ARKLATEX TO CNTRL APPALACHIANS. IN RESPONSE TO THESE
   DEVELOPMENTS...A LOW-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN TX AND NWRN
   GULF OF MEXICO WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS NEWD THROUGH THE
   LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS.

   AT THE SURFACE...THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
   UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP SEWD FROM S-CNTRL KS INTO
   THE OZARK PLATEAU PRIOR TO UNDERGOING CONSIDERABLE DEEPENING WHILE
   RE-CURVING AND ACCELERATING NNEWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
   24/12Z. MEANWHILE...A TRAILING COLD WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SWEEPING
   SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE MID/LOWER MS
   VALLEY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND COLD FRONT...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
   ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE N-CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO INTO LA
   AND SRN MS WILL LIKELY SLOW THE NWD MOVEMENT OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY. FARTHER E...THE FRONT WILL DEVELOP NWD INTO
   INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF STATES...AND MORE NWWD
   INTO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

   ...CNTRL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS...

   THE MASS RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING CNTRL U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL
   PROMOTE THE INTENSIFICATION AND NWD EXPANSION OF A SWLY LLJ FROM THE
   CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES TODAY THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND ERN
   SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. THIS PROCESS WILL ENHANCE THE POLEWARD FLUX OF
   HEAT AND MOISTURE FROM OFF THE ERN GULF BASIN AND ATLANTIC SHELF
   WATERS WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
   60S TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
   PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT IN POOR LAPSE RATES WITH WARM-SECTOR
   MLCAPE ONLY RISING INTO THE 250-500 J/KG RANGE.

   AN MCS ONGOING AT 12Z OVER SERN LA WILL CONTINUE EWD ALONG THE GULF
   COAST TODAY WITHIN A ZONE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
   PRECEDING THE WEAKENING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS EXHIBITED
   SOME WEAKENING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND RE-INTENSIFICATION ALONG
   THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL COLD POOL MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER
   THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE INFLOW AIR MASS GRADUALLY
   DESTABILIZES. THIS NOTION IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT
   CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT
   OF A BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND COMPRISED OF SUPERCELL AND BOWING
   STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
   ALONG THE MCS TRACK WITH THE NRN EXTENT OF THIS THREAT DELINEATED BY
   THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT.

   DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MCS...CONFLUENCE BANDS FORMING WITHIN THE
   NWD-EXPANDING WARM SECTOR MAY FOSTER ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED STORMS
   FROM PORTIONS OF NRN FL AND SRN/CNTRL GA INTO THE CAROLINAS LATER
   THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE INTENSIFYING TROPOSPHERIC WIND AND
   RESULTANT INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE
   MAGNITUDE OF THIS THREAT WILL BE DICTATED BY THE DEGREE OF
   INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP AND WHETHER SUSTAINED...SEMI-DISCRETE
   STORM STRUCTURES CAN EVOLVE.

   ELSEWHERE...A LOW-PROBABILITY RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   MAY MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY-DAY MCS OVER
   NERN MS/NWRN AL AND WITHIN A ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA IMMEDIATELY
   PRECEDING THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.

   ..MEAD/MOSIER.. 11/23/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z