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    Day 2 Outlook >
May 3, 2016 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 3 16:14:40 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160503 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160503 1630Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 031614

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1114 AM CDT TUE MAY 03 2016

   VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SRN
   VA ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TO S GA/N FL...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL VA SWD TO THE E
   COAST OF FL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY.

   ...PARTS OF VA/CAROLINAS TO GA/N FL THROUGH LATE EVENING...
   ONGOING CONVECTION IS NOW MOVING OFF THE NC COAST...AND VISIBLE
   SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CLOUD BREAKS IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION
   FROM CENTRAL NC INTO CENTRAL VA.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN
   THE MID 60S FROM SE VA ACROSS NC...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
   FARTHER SW INTO SC/GA.  THE LINGERING CONVECTION WILL CLEAR ERN NC
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING REMOVES
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND BOOSTS AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES TO ROUGHLY
   500 J/KG IN CENTRAL VA AND 1000-1500 J/KG FROM SRN NC TO SC/GA.

   PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
   AFTERNOON NEAR AND E OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT AS THE
   LOW LEVELS WARM/DESTABILIZE.  ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL ALSO FORM
   FARTHER S ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM S GA INTO SC.  MIDLEVEL
   FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA ROTATE
   ENEWD IN ADVANCE OF THE AMPLIFYING LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE
   OH/MS VALLEY REGION.  THE EXPECTED MODERATE BUOYANCY AND STRAIGHT
   HODOGRAPHS WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL SUPPORT
   ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS AND POTENTIALLY SPLITTING SUPERCELLS
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH LATE
   EVENING.  

   ...E CENTRAL/SE FL COAST THIS AFTERNOON...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 80S AND BOUNDARY LAYER
   DEWPOINTS ARE MAINTAINED AOA 70 F.  A WLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE E COAST SEA
   BREEZE...WHERE ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE.

   ..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 05/03/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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Page last modified: May 03, 2016
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