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    Day 2 Outlook >
Mar 27, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Mar 27 16:30:44 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170327 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170327 1630Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 271630

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

   Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   MID-SOUTH AND TN RIVER VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
   MS/AL TO THE OH RIVER VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   MIDDLE OH VALLEY TO LOWER MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across the
   Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Tennessee Valley this
   afternoon and evening. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a couple
   tornadoes will be possible.

   ...Lower Ohio/Mississippi River Valleys and Tennessee Valley...
   A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the southern MO late this
   morning will continue generally eastward and reach the middle OH
   River Valley by late tonight. A preceding belt of 40-50 kt
   west-southwesterly mid level winds will continue to overspread an
   increasingly moist, albeit modestly so, warm sector. Ahead of an
   eastward-moving cold front currently across the Ozarks and
   Ark-La-Tex, lower/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints will continue
   to become increasingly common across eastern AR, northern MS into
   western TN, northward into western KY. While warm-sector cloud cover
   has remained semi-prevalent thus far, some cloud breaks are noted in
   visible satellite imagery an additional thinning seems likely in
   concert especially with the eastward-spread mid/high-level dry slot
   as per water vapor satellite imagery.

   Linearly organized convection across far northeast AR/far southeast
   MO late this morning should continue to spread east-northeastward
   and increase in coverage/intensify into northwest TN and
   western/central KY as the downstream air mass continues to moisten
   and destabilize. This activity will pose a damaging wind and severe
   hail risk, although a tornado cannot be ruled out. Farther south,
   other initially more discrete storms should develop within the warm
   sector this afternoon across additional portions of TN, far eastern
   AR, northern MS and eventually northwest AL later this
   afternoon/evening. Here, supercell-favorable wind profiles and steep
   mid-level lapse rates as noted per 12Z observed soundings will
   support large hail potential. A few tornadoes also appear possible,
   particularly around mid/late afternoon into early evening across
   western/middle portions of TN and northern MS and northwest AL. In
   this corridor, a modest westerly component of the mid-level winds
   will coincide with modestly strong low-level shear/SRH.

   ..Guyer/Mosier.. 03/27/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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Page last modified: March 27, 2017
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