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    Day 2 Outlook >
May 23, 2015 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat May 23 16:30:24 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150523 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150523 1630Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 231630

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

   VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN CO AND
   ADJACENT WRN KS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL AND SWRN OK AND
   SRN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE SWD TO THE RIO GRANDE...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
   SRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS OK AND MUCH OF TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
   HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
   TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA...AS WELL AS
   OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT WESTERN KANSAS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE/COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. -- COMPRISED OF
   NUMEROUS SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES EMBEDDED IN THE BROADER CYCLONIC
   CIRCULATION -- WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE
   U.S. THIS PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL DOWNSTREAM
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE E...IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING TROUGH SHIFTING
   ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND ADJACENT NWRN ATLANTIC.  

   AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
   COUNTRY...AND NWWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S./CANADA BORDER INTO THE
   CANADIAN PRAIRIE.  MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
   REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR W...WHILE MORE FOCUSED TROUGHING OVER THE
   CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MARK A ROUGH WRN
   BOUNDARY TO THE MAIN ZONE OF CONVECTIVE/SEVERE RISK THIS PERIOD.

   ...WRN AND CENTRAL OK SSWWD ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF TX...
   WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS IS OBSERVED THIS AM PER VIS IMAGERY ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS...THOUGH SOME THINNING/BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
   ARE INDICATED...PARTICULARLY OVER PARTS OF TX S OF AN
   OUTFLOW-REINFORCED WARM FRONT LYING WNW-ESE INVOF THE RED RIVER
   VALLEY.  ACTIVE CONVECTION ONGOING OVER WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE
   WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY...WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT FUELING THE CONVECTION AND RESULTING IN A RISK FOR HEAVY
   RAINFALL.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THIS MCS MAY
   POSE A RISK FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS -- AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OVER
   SRN PORTIONS OF OK.  

   MEANWHILE NEAR AND S OF THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN N TX AND THE SOUTH
   PLAINS/SRN PANHANDLE...FILTERED HEATING OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER FEATURING DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WILL LIKELY YIELD
   1000 TO 1500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE -- WITH POCKETS OF GREATER
   INSTABILITY WHERE HEATING CAN BE MAXIMIZED.  

   STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEAR AND N OF THE WARM
   FRONT...WITH ANY WARM-SECTOR DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS/N OF
   THE FRONT RATHER QUICKLY GIVEN THE MEAN FLOW FIELD.  THUS -- TORNADO
   RISK WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF WITH ANY STRONGER CELL DEVELOPING NEAR THE
   BOUNDARY.  MEANWHILE...DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED NEAR THE N-S
   TROUGH INVOF THE NM/TX BORDER.  GIVEN FAVORABLE BACKGROUND SHEAR
   FEATURING FLOW INCREASING/VEERING WITH HEIGHT...AND THE
   MOIST/DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR...RISK FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IS
   EVIDENT ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

   DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EXTEND SWD ACROSS THE S
   PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN/TRANSPECOS
   REGION TO THE RIO GRANDE.  GIVEN A RELATIVELY UNIFORM KINEMATIC AND
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF WRN TX...SIMILAR SEVERE
   RISK WILL LIKELY EVOLVE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION.  THE RISK
   HOWEVER WILL LIKELY BE MANIFESTED IN MULTIPLE BANDS OF
   CONVECTION...AS INITIAL STORMS SHIFT NEWD INTO CENTRAL/N TX WITH
   TIME WHILE INCREASING ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM
   SUPPORTS NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF PRIOR STORMS.  SEVERE RISK
   SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...THOUGH HEAVY RAIN
   CONCERNS WILL LIKELY BECOME PREDOMINANT THROUGH THE EVENING AND
   OVERNIGHT GIVEN ANTECEDENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
   PLAINS.

   ...ERN CO AND ADJACENT WRN KS...
   AS HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SRN HIGH PLAINS/WRN OK MCS
   DEPART ENEWD/AWAY FROM ERN CO...SOME DIURNAL HEATING OF A MODESTLY
   MOIST /UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S TD/ BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR LOCALLY --
   AWAY FROM AREAS OF PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS.  DESTABILIZATION WILL
   BE AIDED BY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT /H5 TEMPERATURES -14 TO -16 PER
   MORNING DNR RAOB AND 12Z PROGS/...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW 500 TO 1000
   J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE OVER E CENTRAL AND NERN
   CO.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON -- AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
   PARTICULARLY N OF THE PALMER RIDGE.

   AS THE UPPER SYSTEM ADVANCES SLOWLY EWD...STRONGEST MID-LEVEL SSWLYS
   WILL BE GRADUALLY SHUNTED EWD INTO WRN KS WITH TIME.  HOWEVER...WITH
   PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW ACROSS E CENTRAL AND NERN CO THROUGH
   THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ENHANCING SHEAR...EXPECT A FEW SUSTAINED/ROTATING
   STORMS TO EVOLVE -- ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED HAIL/WIND RISK AND
   POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES.  STORMS WILL LIKELY
   CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SEVERE RISK SHOULD
   GRADUALLY WANE AFTER SUNSET.

   ..GOSS/ROGERS.. 05/23/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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Page last modified: May 23, 2015
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