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    Day 2 Outlook >
Aug 29, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Aug 29 16:17:20 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140829 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140829 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 291617

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1117 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

   VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
   FROM THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO
   WISCONSIN AND WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE
   EASTERN DAKOTAS.  ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS
   HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

   ...MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...
   MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A BROAD/WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
   CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  VISIBLE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS A SMALLER-
   SCALE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX OVER EASTERN KS...WHICH WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING.  STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX OVER
   PARTS OF MO/IA/IL AND SOUTHEAST MN.  DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND
   STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE MODERATE CAPE VALUES
   AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS IN THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. 
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.  SLIGHTLY COOLER
   MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY
   INCREASE THE RISK OF HAIL IN THE MORE INTENSE STORMS OVER THE
   NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA AS WELL.  THE MAIN RISK OF SEVERE
   WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH SOON AFTER SUNSET.

   ..HART/COHEN.. 08/29/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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Page last modified: August 29, 2014
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