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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 23, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jul 23 16:28:31 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140723 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140723 1630Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 231628

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1128 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

   VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN WA INTO THE
   NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OK/AR/TX...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND
   NY/PA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY FROM PARTS OF
   WASHINGTON EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO TONIGHT.  STORMS WITH LOCALLY SEVERE WINDS MAY OCCUR FROM
   EASTERN NEW YORK INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND OVER
   PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX REGION.

   ...NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS...
   A RATHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
   REGION.  INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION WILL
   HELP TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
   EASTERN WA/ORE INTO ID AND WESTERN MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING.  STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
   PROMOTE THE RISK OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS.  DURING THE EVENING...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MT WHERE STRONGER LOW
   LEVEL WINDS AND MODERATE CAPE VALUES WILL RESULT IN A GREATER RISK
   OF SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES.  THESE MAY BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
   HAIL OR ISOLATED TORNADOES...MAINLY AFTER DARK.

   12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE LESS BULLISH ON EVOLUTION OF STORMS INTO THE
   DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT...SO HAVE REDUCED SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN THIS
   REGION.  CONSENSUS OF MODELS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT INITIATION OF STORMS
   OVER EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD WILL BE VERY ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING...SO HAVE REDUCED SEVERE PROBS IN THIS AREA AS WELL.

   ...ARKLATEX...
   A REMNANT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
   SOUTHEAST KS.  MEANWHILE SCATTERED ACCAS/HIGH-BASED STORMS ARE
   FORMING OVER CENTRAL AR.  IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT SOME COMBINATION OF
   THESE TWO CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
   INTO EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR THIS AFTERNOON.  DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
   70S AND STRONG HEATING WILL LEAD TO EXTREME INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH
   30+ KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR.  MORE RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW
   REMARKABLE AGREEMENT THAT A BOWING STRUCTURE MAY FORM IN THIS REGION
   AND POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 
   STORMS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHEAST TX BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER DARK.

   ...NEW ENGLAND...
   A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SLOWING INCREASING ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD
   FRONT EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE INTO EASTERN QUEBEC.  STRONG HEATING
   AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL YIELD AFTERNOON
   MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG.  12Z OBSERVED AND MODEL FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
   STRONG...AND THAT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY
   STEEP TODAY.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT WHILE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BE
   RATHER HIGH...ITS UNCLEAR HOW MANY STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE. 
   NEVERTHELESS...HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS THE
   REGION TODAY.

   ..HART/ROGERS.. 07/23/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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