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    Day 2 Outlook >
Sep 22, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Sep 22 16:16:49 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170922 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170922 1630Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 221616

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1116 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

   Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
   UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   THE PLAINS STATES AND UPPER MIDWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe hail and wind storms are possible from the Upper
   Midwest to the southern High Plains, mainly during the late
   afternoon and evening.  The greatest threat today is over parts of
   the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.  This afternoon and evening, the
   threat will focus over northwest Minnesota.

   ...WI/MI today...
   An ongoing cluster of strong/severe storms has been affecting
   northern WI for several hours.  This cluster is in an environment
   where continued weak low level warm/moist advection and daytime
   heating will help destabilize the boundary layer.  Given the
   persistent nature of the storms, and the slowly increasing mesoscale
   organization of the activity, have added a SLGT risk for wind damage
   across parts of the MI Upper Peninsula.  

   ...ND/MN...
   The overall forecast for this region remains unchanged.  A very
   moist/unstable air mass will develop this afternoon in the warm
   sector of a low over northwest MN and eastern ND.  Vertical shear
   profiles will also be quite strong across this region with forecast
   soundings suggesting a conditional risk of supercells and tornadoes
   in warm sector.  However, virtually no 12z CAM guidance shows robust
   convective initiation in the warm sector.  Instead, all storms form
   along and northwest of the warm front, affecting northwest MN and
   northeast ND this afternoon and evening.  Supercell storm structures
   are still expected in the elevated-convective regime, with stable
   near-surface lapse-rates likely limiting the tornado and wind damage
   potential.  Large hail is expected to be the main threat.

   ..Hart/Picca.. 09/22/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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Page last modified: September 22, 2017
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