The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southeast us today....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.

   SPC AC 111601
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1101 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008
   
   VALID 111630Z - 121200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
   STATES INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...
   
   INTENSE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL IND INTO VA DURING THIS
   FORECAST PERIOD...WITH 80-100 KNOT MID LEVEL JET SURGING EASTWARD
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CAROLINAS. 
   THE DERECHO THAT AFFECTED PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVERNIGHT
   HAS NOW MOVED OFFSHORE...BISECTING THE PRIMARY RISK ZONE TODAY INTO
   TWO AREAS.  ONE OVER SOUTHERN GA/NORTH FL...AND THE OTHER OVER PARTS
   OF SC/NC.  ALSO...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID
   AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
   
   ...SOUTHEAST GA/NORTHEAST FL...
   CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND OFF THE GA
   COAST.  MEANWHILE...ISOLATED CELLS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER
   SOUTHERN GA AND FAR NORTH FL.  THIS ACTIVITY IS IN A REGION OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR. 
   THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK OF
   DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  THREAT FARTHER SOUTH IS MORE UNCERTAIN DUE
   TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FORCING TO INITIATE STORMS. 
   HOWEVER...A CONDITIONAL THREAT EXISTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN FORM
   DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
   
   ...WV/KY/VA/TN/WRN NC...
   BAND OF STRONGLY FORCED THUNDERSTORMS IS ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO
   WESTERN WV AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST VA.  THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG LEADING
   EDGE OF STRONG DPVA...AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST
   ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE
   APPALACHIANS.  SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ACTIVITY MAY
   MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
   CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ...SC/NC...
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID CLEARING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
   REMNANT SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM EAST OF ATL INTO CENTRAL
   SC.  DENSE LOW CLOUDS AND EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE MAINTAINING A
   MORE STABLE AIRMASS NORTH OF BOUNDARY.  PRESENT TRENDS AND MODEL
   GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY MAY LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD THIS
   AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SC/NC.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
   RATHER RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS ROUGHLY ALONG AN AXIS
   FROM CAE-FAY-HAT.  FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET WILL OVERSPREAD
   THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY LEADING TO SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY STEEP
   MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALONG
   THE BOUNDARY.  STORMS THAT TRACK ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH POSE
   A THREAT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..HART/CROSBIE.. 05/11/2008
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z