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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jun 27, 2016 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jun 27 16:53:37 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160627 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160627 1630Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 271653

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1153 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

   VALID 271630Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
   INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

   CORRECTED FOR NDFD THUNDER GRID

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL
   BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS.  STORMS WITH ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WILL ALSO
   BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
   CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND MODEL ANALYSES SUGGEST A VERY SUBTLE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WY.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
   TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST
   WY/NORTHEAST CO AND KS/NEB LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AHEAD
   OF THE FEATURE...SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE HELPING TO
   MAINTAIN LOW 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM WESTERN KS INTO
   SOUTHEAST WY.  THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. 
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
   SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS.  AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG
   THE CORRIDOR OF HIGHEST LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS AND STRONGEST
   INSTABILITY.  STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE AND SPREAD INTO WEST-CENTRAL
   KS OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

   ...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
   WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND STRONG CAPE WILL BE PRESENT TODAY OVER A
   BROAD AREA OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US.  WHILE FORCING MECHANISMS ARE
   DIFFUSE AND WEAK...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED AND BRIEFLY
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN MATURE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THIS AREA
   TODAY.  THE PRIMARY RISK SHOULD MAXIMIZE DURING THE PEAK HEATING
   PERIOD OF LATE AFTERNOON.

   ..HART/LEITMAN.. 06/27/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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Page last modified: June 27, 2016
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