Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Sep 25, 2016 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Sep 25 16:04:35 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160925 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160925 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 251604

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1104 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

   VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WI...IL...AND
   LAKE MI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR A COLD FRONT TODAY FROM THE
   UPPER GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.  A FEW OF THEM MAY
   PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF ILLINOIS AND
   WISCONSIN.  THE OVERALL SEVERE-STORM THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL IN BOTH
   INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.

   ...WI/IL/LM...
   A BROAD TROUGH IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND
   ROCKIES...WITH THE MAIN SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM MN/WI
   INTO KS/OK.  A PLUME OF MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR ALONG/AHEAD OF
   THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
   THUNDERSTORMS.  WEAK LAPSE RATES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL
   GREATLY LIMIT THE RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS TODAY. 
   HOWEVER...MOST MORNING MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A LOW THREAT OF A FEW
   STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER PARTS OF WI/NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN LAKE
   MI LATER TODAY. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ENHANCE
   THE RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THIS REGION THIS
   AFTERNOON.

   ..HART/LEITMAN.. 09/25/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: September 25, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities