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    Day 2 Outlook >
Sep 15, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Sep 15 16:22:44 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140915 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140915 1630Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 151622

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1122 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

   VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF
   THE SOUTHEAST...OZARKS...PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND DESERT
   SOUTHWEST.  ELSEWHERE...A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE
   AFTERNOON OVER THE OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CASCADES...AND THE
   EASTERN UTAH/COLORADO AREA.

   ...MID MS VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
   A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY ESEWD
   FROM MN/IA TO INDIANA/OH BY THIS EVENING...AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD
   FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS KS/MO/IL.  ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS LIKELY
   REACHED ITS PEAK THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN MO/WRN IL AS THE ZONE OF
   ASCENT PRECEDING THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH PHASES WITH THE FEED OF
   BUOYANCY /ROOTED IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER/ FROM THE WSW.  A GRADUAL
   DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AS THE AREA OF
   CONVECTION SPREADS EWD TOWARD IL/INDIANA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 
   FARTHER S-SW...SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM
   NRN OK INTO SRN MO.  HOWEVER...ONLY SHALLOW ASCENT IS EXPECTED ALONG
   THE FRONT AS THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH PASSES WELL TO THE NE ACROSS THE OH
   VALLEY...AND STORM COVERAGE/PERSISTENCE ARE IN QUESTION. 

   ...SRN ROCKIES AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
   SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
   SWD TO THE MEXICO BORDER.  THE MORE HIGH-BASED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR
   ACROSS WRN CO/ERN UT WHERE INVERTED-V PROFILES WILL BE PRESENT TO
   THE N OF THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE.  FARTHER S...12Z
   SOUNDINGS REVEAL THE POTENTIAL FOR WET THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
   NM/AZ...AND THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS SRN
   AZ AS THE OUTER ENVELOPE OF WEAKENING HURRICANE ODILE APPROACHES
   FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

   ...NE CA/NW NV/ERN ORE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
   A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EJECTING NNEWD AND WILL MOVE OVER NRN CA
   AND ORE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.  12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW
   MARGINAL MOISTURE INLAND WITH PW VALUES OF 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES WITH
   THE POTENTIAL FOR INVERTED-V PROFILES AND WEAK BUOYANCY.  A FEW
   HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME
   HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS WELL AS ASCENT AND SOME
   MIDLEVEL MOISTENING WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  GIVEN
   THE RELATIVELY DRY PROFILES AND REASONABLY FAST STORM MOTIONS...THE
   STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LITTLE WETTING RAINS.

   ...SE STATES TODAY...
   A REMNANT STALLED FRONT ACROSS S GA/SE AL...AS WELL AS LOCAL
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ACROSS N FL AND THE
   FL PANHANDLE...WILL AGAIN FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
   AFTERNOON IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE BUOYANCY AND PW
   VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES.

   ..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 09/15/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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Page last modified: September 15, 2014
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