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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 27, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jul 27 16:20:09 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140727 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140727 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

The SPC is forecasting ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.  View What is a Watch? clip.

Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 271620

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1120 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

   VALID 271630Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH
   VALLEY...MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION.  THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN
   KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN OHIO...SOUTHWESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...AND
   SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON.  A ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO
   WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

   ...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
   WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN KY AND WESTERN WV
   HAVE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY OF A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. 
   THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED THE MDT RISK AREA...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED
   ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF TORNADOES/HAIL/WIND ACROSS THIS REGION.

   A STRONG PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
   CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  RATHER STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING
   FOR ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
   TROUGH...RESULTING IN A RATHER LARGE AREA OF POTENTIAL SEVERE
   WEATHER.  THE MOST FOCUSED AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER PARTS OF
   KY/OH/WV.

   ...KY/OH/WV THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
   WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THIS MORNING
   OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KY INTO WESTERN WV.  THIS REGION OF
   CONVECTION WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY 12Z NAM INITIALIZATION OR ANY
   MESOSCALE MODELS THAT USE THAT INPUT.  THIS RESULTS IN CONSIDERABLE
   UNCERTAINTY WHETHER WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS CAN DEVELOP OVER
   SOUTHERN OH THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER
   DEPICTED IN A MDT RISK.  DUE TO INCREASING DOUBT...HAVE REMOVED THE
   45 PERCENT WIND AREA...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED OTHER ENHANCED
   PROBABILITIES FOR THIS REGION.

   AT 15Z...THE PRIMARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING STORMS
   EXTENDS FROM WEST-CENTRAL KY TO SOUTH JKL.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL
   LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. 
   BOWING SEGMENTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. 
   STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE CREST OF THE
   APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF VA AND NORTHERN NC.

   ...LOWER MI/OH/PA...
   STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF OH INTO WESTERN PA...WHERE
   AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED.  MODERATE
   INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP...ALONG WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
   THUNDERSTORMS.  COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE
   RATES...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES...WILL
   PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS.

   ..HART/ROGERS.. 07/27/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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