The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southeast us today....
Please read the latest public
statement about this event.
SPC AC 111601
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008
VALID 111630Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...
INTENSE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL IND INTO VA DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH 80-100 KNOT MID LEVEL JET SURGING EASTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THE DERECHO THAT AFFECTED PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVERNIGHT
HAS NOW MOVED OFFSHORE...BISECTING THE PRIMARY RISK ZONE TODAY INTO
TWO AREAS. ONE OVER SOUTHERN GA/NORTH FL...AND THE OTHER OVER PARTS
OF SC/NC. ALSO...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
...SOUTHEAST GA/NORTHEAST FL...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND OFF THE GA
COAST. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED CELLS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER
SOUTHERN GA AND FAR NORTH FL. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN A REGION OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR.
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THREAT FARTHER SOUTH IS MORE UNCERTAIN DUE
TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FORCING TO INITIATE STORMS.
HOWEVER...A CONDITIONAL THREAT EXISTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN FORM
DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
...WV/KY/VA/TN/WRN NC...
BAND OF STRONGLY FORCED THUNDERSTORMS IS ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO
WESTERN WV AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST VA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG LEADING
EDGE OF STRONG DPVA...AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE
APPALACHIANS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ACTIVITY MAY
MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.
...SC/NC...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID CLEARING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
REMNANT SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM EAST OF ATL INTO CENTRAL
SC. DENSE LOW CLOUDS AND EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE MAINTAINING A
MORE STABLE AIRMASS NORTH OF BOUNDARY. PRESENT TRENDS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY MAY LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SC/NC. THIS WILL RESULT IN
RATHER RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS ROUGHLY ALONG AN AXIS
FROM CAE-FAY-HAT. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET WILL OVERSPREAD
THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY LEADING TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. STORMS THAT TRACK ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH POSE
A THREAT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
..HART/CROSBIE.. 05/11/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z