Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Oct 21, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Oct 21 16:23:04 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20141021 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141021 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 211623

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1123 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

   VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS
   OF THE ROCKIES...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH TEXAS...SOUTH FLORIDA...AS WELL
   AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND MIDDLE-ATLANTIC REGION.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
   COAST TO SE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN
   UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW FORMS OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY/CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS.  THIS CLOSED LOW WILL THEN DRIFT EWD TO THE MID
   ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
   IS EXPECTED NEAR AND JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY
   INTO TONIGHT.  THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED OVER LAND
   IN THIS PATTERN...COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND RELATIVELY STEEP
   LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BUOYANCY AND THE RISK FOR
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ZONE OF ASCENT PRECEDING THE
   DEVELOPING MIDLEVEL LOW.

   ELSEWHERE...A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ENEWD FROM
   ID TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY BY LATE TONIGHT. 
   STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL
   SUPPORT WEAK BUOYANCY AND A CONTINUED RISK FOR WIDELY-SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS INTO PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FROM SW TX INTO NM WITHIN THE
   LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SRN STREAM
   TROUGH.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN THE NRN FRINGE
   OF THE TROPICAL AIR MASS ACROSS S TX AND S FL TODAY.

   ..THOMPSON/KERR.. 10/21/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: October 21, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities