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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 26, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jul 26 16:27:22 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170726 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170726 1630Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 261627

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1127 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

   Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MIDWEST TO
   SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GREAT BASIN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe wind gusts are possible late afternoon
   into this evening across parts of the Midwest and Great Basin.

   ...Midwest...
   A broad swath of non-severe convection is ongoing from MI southwest
   to KS. While most of this convection appears to be steady-state to
   decaying, redevelopment persists in the warm-advection regime across
   north-central KS. In the downstream warm sector, regional 12Z
   soundings sampled weak 700-500 mb lapse rates of 5-6 degree C/km
   along with weak tropospheric winds. The net effect of these limiting
   factors will be to confine the areal extent and amplitude of
   afternoon destabilization, along with restraining the degree of
   intensification on the leading edge of broad-scale outflow. Sporadic
   wet microbursts appear to be the most likely scenario with a low
   chance for an organized MCS.

   ...South-central High Plains...
   Several CAMs are insistent on developing a couple multicell clusters
   off the higher terrain this evening. With weak low-level
   northeasterlies beneath modest mid/upper-level westerlies, this
   scenario may occur. Given relatively warm mid/upper-level
   temperatures limiting hail growth, the main hazard should be
   isolated strong to severe wind gusts.

   ...Great Basin...
   The persistent mid-level cyclone over northern CA will shift
   northeast into southeast OR by Thursday morning. Scattered storms
   will develop again across the Great Basin downstream of this wave, 
   with the pre-storm environment consisting of well-mixed
   thermodynamic profiles given full insolation already underway. With
   somewhat larger buoyancy expected compared to previous days amid
   25-30 kt effective shear, the setup should yield a risk for
   localized severe wind gusts.

   ..Grams/Mosier.. 07/26/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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Page last modified: July 26, 2017
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