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    Day 2 Outlook >
May 24, 2016 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 24 16:27:20 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160524 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160524 1630Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 241627

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1127 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

   VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST CO AND
   SOUTHWEST NEB...

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE EASTERN TX
   PANHANDLE...WESTERN OK...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND
   MIDWEST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT
   FOR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
   THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.  VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
   WILL BE POSSIBLE.  ANOTHER FOCUSED SEVERE STORM THREAT AREA WILL BE
   ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   EARLY TONIGHT.

   ...KS/OK/TX...
   MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DRYLINE OVER WEST TX...WITH A
   RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING E-W ACROSS NORTHERN OK.  THIS
   BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY WEAKENING...BUT WILL LIKELY BE IMPORTANT TO
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 
   WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHENING BY EARLY
   EVENING.  THE RESULT WILL BE LIKELY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
   THE DRYLINE OVER THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...AND IN VICINITY OF THE
   OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS PRESENT
   WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND VERY STEEP
   LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OVER 4000 J/KG. 
   THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH A RISK
   OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THERE APPEARS TO BE AN
   ENHANCED RISK OF TORNADOES LATER TODAY NEAR THE DRYLINE/OUTFLOW
   TRIPLE-POINT WHERE BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED
   FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR.  SOME 12Z CAM SOLUTIONS ALSO SUGGEST A
   RISK OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IN
   SOUTHWEST OK AS WELL.  EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THESE STORMS THROUGH
   THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT IS UNCERTAIN...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE ONGOING
   SLIGHT RISK INTO NORTHEAST OK AND EASTERN KS.

   ...NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST NEB...
   SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER EASTERN CO ARE TRANSPORTING
   MOISTURE WESTWARD...WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S.  MODEL
   SOLUTIONS ARE VERY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
   ALONG THE DENVER CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON...AND TRACKING THESE CELLS
   NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ENHANCED RISK AREA.  VERY LARGE HAIL AND A
   FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CORRIDOR.  THE CLUSTER OF
   STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEB THIS EVENING WITH A
   CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT.

   ..HART/MOSIER.. 05/24/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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Page last modified: May 24, 2016
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