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    Day 2 Outlook >
Feb 13, 2016 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Feb 13 16:12:55 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160213 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160213 1630Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 131612

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1012 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

   VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL SOMEWHAT DEAMPLIFY THROUGH SUN AS LAST
   SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ROUNDS BASE OF ERN U.S TROUGH AND FLAT
   RIDGE PROGRESSES FROM THE RCKYS INTO THE PLNS/MS VLY. UPSTREAM
   SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE NOW OVER ID SHOULD FURTHER DEVOLVE AS IT
   SHEARS ESE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLNS THIS EVE...AND REACHES SW MN/WRN
   IA EARLY SUN.

   ARCTIC SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY E FROM THE MS VLY INTO THE
   APPALACHIANS...WHILE INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT
   ENCOURAGE FURTHER LEE TROUGHING OVER THE NRN HIGH PLNS. THE TROUGH
   SHOULD PROGRESS E/SE INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NEB BY
   12Z SUN...BUT LIKELY WITHOUT ASSUMING A SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC
   NATURE. 

   ...NRN HIGH PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE...
   DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SFC HEATING IN WAKE OF DEPARTING HIGH-LVL
   CONVEYOR BELT CLOUD BAND WILL YIELD SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS FROM
   SRN MT SEWD INTO THE BLACK HILLS LATER TODAY. AT THE SAME
   TIME...MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND ASCENT WILL INCREASE OVER REGION WITH
   THE CONTINUED ESE MOVEMENT OF ID UPR IMPULSE. THE LEADING EDGE OF
   THIS DESTABILIZATION/FORCING IS NOW OVER SW MT AND SHOULD REACH SE
   MT/NE WY BY MID-LATE AFTN. COUPLED WITH LOW-LVL UPLIFT ALONG LEE
   TROUGH...SETUP MAY PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD BOUNDARY-LAYER BASED
   CONVECTION SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO YIELD OCCASIONAL THUNDER. GIVEN 40+
   KT UNIDIRECTIONAL WNW FLOW LIKELY TO BE PRESENT AT THE TOP OF THE
   MIXED LAYER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SFC
   GUSTS. SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED SVR GUSTS ARE...HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTED.

   ..CORFIDI/DEAN.. 02/13/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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Page last modified: February 13, 2016
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