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    Day 2 Outlook >
Aug 28, 2015 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Aug 28 16:30:52 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150828 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150828 1630Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 281630

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

   VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM ERN
   ND INTO NRN MN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO
   EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.  OTHER STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD
   OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA...AND
   FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST IOWA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF A MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER IA IS
   EXPECTED...LARGELY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT RISES OVER THE NRN PLAINS
   WHICH WILL OCCUR DOWNSTREAM FROM ANOTHER PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   THAT WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW COAST SAT MORNING.

   ...ERN ND/NRN MN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
   MORNING CONVECTION WITH AN INITIAL SPEED MAX HAS WEAKENED OVER THE
   PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM ERN ND
   INTO NW MN AS AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING/MIXING WEAKENS CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION...AND A WEAK UPSTREAM SPEED MAX APPROACHES FROM SRN
   SASKATCHEWAN.  STEEP LAPSE RATE PROFILES AND BOUNDARY LAYER
   DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F WITH MIXING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE AOA 2000
   J/KG...WITH DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR THAT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS MARGINAL SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

   ...N FL/S GA THIS AFTERNOON...
   A MIDLEVEL LOW OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
   LITTLE...WITH A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE PERSISTING TO THE E OF
   THE TROUGH OVER S GA/FL.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND A
   RESIDUAL FRONT.  MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT AFTERNOON MLCAPE
   NEAR 2500 J/KG ACROSS N FL/S GA...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND OUTFLOW WINDS GIVEN
   PRECIPITATION LOADING IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH DCAPE NEAR 1200 J/KG. 
   STILL...COVERAGE OF STRONG STORMS IS IN QUESTION...AND WILL NOT ADD
   A 5% WIND AREA IN THIS UPDATE.  

   ...NE KS/NW MO/SW IA THIS AFTERNOON...
   PERSISTENT CLOUDS/RAIN IN THE WAA ZONE WITH THE IA SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   HAVE REDUCED LAPSE RATES AND WILL LIMIT THE STRONGER SURFACE HEATING
   TO A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NE KS INTO SE NEB/NW MO/SW IA THIS
   AFTERNOON.  THE HAIL AND DOWNBURST RISKS WITH ADDITIONAL STORM
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
   BE TEMPERED BY THE POOR LAPSE RATES...AND BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN
   LIMITED WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER IN THE WAA ZONE OVER
   IA.  THUS...WILL NOT ADD ANY PROBABILITIES IN THIS UPDATE...BUT THIS
   AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

   ..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 08/28/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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