May 24, 2016 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 24 16:27:20 UTC 2016 (20160524 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160524 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160524 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 42,087 311,065 Dodge City, KS...Pampa, TX...Sterling, CO...Woodward, OK...Fort Morgan, CO...
SLIGHT 192,707 9,365,734 Denver, CO...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Aurora, CO...
MARGINAL 473,277 27,326,557 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Minneapolis, MN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160524 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
10 % 16,259 150,033 Dodge City, KS...Sterling, CO...Woodward, OK...Fort Morgan, CO...
5 % 49,867 1,460,355 Denver, CO...Aurora, CO...Centennial, CO...Lawton, OK...Enid, OK...
2 % 137,401 7,475,939 Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Lakewood, CO...Thornton, CO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160524 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 234,485 9,639,494 Denver, CO...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Aurora, CO...
5 % 474,172 27,371,637 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Minneapolis, MN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160524 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 54,837 437,297 Dodge City, KS...Pampa, TX...Sterling, CO...Woodward, OK...Fort Morgan, CO...
30 % 42,462 315,895 Dodge City, KS...Pampa, TX...Sterling, CO...Woodward, OK...Fort Morgan, CO...
15 % 190,907 9,132,100 Denver, CO...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Aurora, CO...
5 % 475,185 27,541,571 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Minneapolis, MN...
   SPC AC 241627

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1127 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

   VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST CO AND
   SOUTHWEST NEB...

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE EASTERN TX
   PANHANDLE...WESTERN OK...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND
   MIDWEST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT
   FOR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
   THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.  VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
   WILL BE POSSIBLE.  ANOTHER FOCUSED SEVERE STORM THREAT AREA WILL BE
   ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   EARLY TONIGHT.

   ...KS/OK/TX...
   MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DRYLINE OVER WEST TX...WITH A
   RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING E-W ACROSS NORTHERN OK.  THIS
   BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY WEAKENING...BUT WILL LIKELY BE IMPORTANT TO
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 
   WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHENING BY EARLY
   EVENING.  THE RESULT WILL BE LIKELY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
   THE DRYLINE OVER THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...AND IN VICINITY OF THE
   OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS PRESENT
   WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND VERY STEEP
   LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OVER 4000 J/KG. 
   THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH A RISK
   OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THERE APPEARS TO BE AN
   ENHANCED RISK OF TORNADOES LATER TODAY NEAR THE DRYLINE/OUTFLOW
   TRIPLE-POINT WHERE BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED
   FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR.  SOME 12Z CAM SOLUTIONS ALSO SUGGEST A
   RISK OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IN
   SOUTHWEST OK AS WELL.  EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THESE STORMS THROUGH
   THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT IS UNCERTAIN...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE ONGOING
   SLIGHT RISK INTO NORTHEAST OK AND EASTERN KS.

   ...NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST NEB...
   SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER EASTERN CO ARE TRANSPORTING
   MOISTURE WESTWARD...WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S.  MODEL
   SOLUTIONS ARE VERY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
   ALONG THE DENVER CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON...AND TRACKING THESE CELLS
   NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ENHANCED RISK AREA.  VERY LARGE HAIL AND A
   FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CORRIDOR.  THE CLUSTER OF
   STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEB THIS EVENING WITH A
   CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT.

   ..HART/MOSIER.. 05/24/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z