Apr 20, 2018 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Apr 20 16:39:20 UTC 2018 (20180420 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180420 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180420 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 9,361 115,743 Clovis, NM...Portales, NM...Lovington, NM...
MARGINAL 38,058 806,104 Lubbock, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Hobbs, NM...Plainview, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20180420 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 16,269 261,955 Clovis, NM...Hobbs, NM...Hereford, TX...Levelland, TX...Portales, NM...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20180420 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 9,401 120,349 Clovis, NM...Portales, NM...Lovington, NM...
5 % 38,339 776,125 Lubbock, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Hobbs, NM...West Odessa, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20180420 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 9,401 120,349 Clovis, NM...Portales, NM...Lovington, NM...
5 % 38,817 789,856 Lubbock, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Hobbs, NM...West Odessa, TX...
   SPC AC 201639

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1139 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

   Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   EAST-CENTRAL NM AND WEST TX...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe hail and gusts are possible today from thunderstorms over
   portions of the southern High Plains, mainly mid-afternoon into
   early evening.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   A deep upper low is progressing eastward across the southern
   Rockies, and will affect the southern High Plains this afternoon and
   evening.  Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies over
   eastern NM and West TX, where southeasterly surface winds will
   slowly transport moisture into region.  Dewpoints are only in the
   30s to lower 40s F now, but should climb to near 50F by late
   afternoon with a narrow corridor of MUCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg. 
   Present indications are that thunderstorms will form as the leading
   edge of large-scale forcing arrives from the west.  Steep mid level
   lapse rates and sufficient CAPE will support a few strong updrafts
   capable of hail.  Vertical shear profiles are also forecast to be
   quite strong, supportive of rotating cells capable of gusty winds or
   a brief tornado.  The threat of severe storms appears rather focused
   between 23-02z.

   ..Hart/Kerr.. 04/20/2018

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z