Jul 5, 2015 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jul 5 16:27:30 UTC 2015 (20150705 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150705 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150705 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 79,654 1,226,187 Sioux Falls, SD...Rapid City, SD...Aberdeen, SD...Watertown, SD...Willmar, MN...
SLIGHT 204,456 11,265,889 New Orleans, LA...Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Baton Rouge, LA...Shreveport, LA...
MARGINAL 355,972 40,627,904 Jacksonville, FL...Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...Omaha, NE...Miami, FL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150705 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 56,414 571,841 Rapid City, SD...Aberdeen, SD...Watertown, SD...Willmar, MN...Brookings, SD...
2 % 150,402 6,404,294 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Rochester, MN...Fargo, ND...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150705 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 25,267 527,747 Sioux Falls, SD...Watertown, SD...Brookings, SD...Mitchell, SD...Marshall, MN...
30 % 48,959 969,324 Sioux Falls, SD...Watertown, SD...Willmar, MN...Brookings, SD...Mitchell, SD...
15 % 213,653 11,304,643 New Orleans, LA...Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Baton Rouge, LA...Shreveport, LA...
5 % 377,541 40,846,491 Jacksonville, FL...Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...Omaha, NE...Miami, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150705 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 32,235 117,735 Pierre, SD...Huron, SD...
30 % 52,027 454,636 Rapid City, SD...Aberdeen, SD...Watertown, SD...Brookings, SD...Pierre, SD...
15 % 134,045 2,516,665 Sioux Falls, SD...Fargo, ND...Duluth, MN...Sioux City, IA...St. Cloud, MN...
5 % 145,874 7,208,406 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Baton Rouge, LA...Shreveport, LA...Bloomington, MN...
   SPC AC 051627

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1127 AM CDT SUN JUL 05 2015

   VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF SD INTO SWRN
   MN...AND A SMALL PART OF ND...NEB AND IA...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO UPPER
   MS VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PART OF THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
   INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO MID
   AND SERN ATLANTIC COASTS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND POSSIBLY
   A TORNADO OR TWO WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE
   NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH
   DAKOTA...NORTHERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND NORTHWEST
   IOWA.  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS YIELDING DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
   SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE OVER NRN MANITOBA WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS SRN
   PORTIONS OF HUDSON BAY...ENHANCING A BELT OF WLY MID TO UPPER-LEVEL
   FLOW OVER THE N-CNTRL CONUS.  EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS HIGH-MOMENTUM AIR
   STREAM...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY MOVING SEWD INTO THE NRN
   INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL ACCELERATE ESEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHERE
   IT WILL BECOME LOOSELY PHASED WITH A WEAKER...LOWER-LATITUDE IMPULSE
   ORIGINATING OVER ERN PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN.  ELSEWHERE...A
   MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES WILL
   CONTINUE EWD TOWARD THE MID AND SERN ATLANTIC COASTS.

   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH THE RED AND
   UPPER MS VALLEYS WHILE FARTHER WEST THE BOUNDARY SURGES SWD FROM THE
   NRN INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.  A FRONTAL WAVE ANALYZED OVER WRN SD
   THIS MORNING WILL DEVELOP ESEWD ALONG THE FRONT...REACHING SERN SD
   BY 12Z/MONDAY.

   ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

   A SMALL MCS IS PRESENT AS OF MID MORNING INVOF THE SURFACE COLD
   FRONT OVER NERN ND...AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID-LEVEL
   IMPULSE /LIKELY OF CONVECTIVE ORIGIN/ MOVING THROUGH CNTRL ND. 
   TIME-HEIGHT TRENDS FROM THE BISMARK WSR-88D VAD INDICATE THAT THIS
   DISTURBANCE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BELT OF 40-50 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW
   WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH A WARMING/DESTABILIZING AIR MASS OVER THE
   RED RIVER VALLEY SHOULD SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF THE MCS AT LEAST
   THROUGH NWRN MN THIS AFTERNOON.  DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND SOME
   SEVERE HAIL WITH BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ALONG THE MCS TRACK.  FOR
   ADDITION NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 1303 AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH 390.

   OTHER SURFACE-BASED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
   ALONG THE TRAILING OUTFLOW FROM THE EARLY-DAY MCS AND/OR COLD FRONT
   FROM SERN ND THROUGH CNTRL INTO WRN SD AS DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR
   ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSES MENTIONED IN THE
   SYNOPSIS.  STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH
   BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL YIELD MODERATE TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WHERE
   MLCAPE WILL APPROACH 2000-3000+ J/KG.  THIS INSTABILITY WILL ALIGN
   WITH STEADILY STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO FOSTER A MIXTURE OF
   SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE NE-SW
   ORIENTED CONVECTIVE BAND.  INITIAL HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
   PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES WITH A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY DAMAGING
   WINDS LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS STORMS CONGEAL INTO A
   SEWD-MOVING MCS.  

   ...LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

   12Z REGIONAL RAOBS SAMPLED A VERY MOIST AND ALREADY MODERATE TO
   STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
   MENTIONED ABOVE.  PERSISTENT SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ENHANCE
   INFLOW OF THIS AIR MASS INTO THE ONGOING STORMS OVER THE
   ARKLAMISS...PROMOTING THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY ALONG A GROWING/DEEPENING COLD POOL.  GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
   INSTABILITY...A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE AND RELATIVELY
   STRONG HIGH-LEVEL FLOW...THE SETUP MAY SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED
   DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

   ...SERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON EVENING...

   ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS IS NOT AS UNSTABLE AS THAT OVER THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY...AMPLE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD POCKETS OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON DOWNSTREAM FROM THE ONGOING STORMS
   OVER SWRN GA AND THE FL PNHDL.  A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SWLY MID-LEVEL
   FLOW AND FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
   AID IN THE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE GA/FL STORMS AS WELL AS
   PROMOTE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONTS AND
   PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  GIVEN THE CHARACTER OF THE
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED
   DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

   ..MEAD/MOSIER.. 07/05/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z