Sep 2, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 2 16:17:52 UTC 2014 (20140902 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140902 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140902 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 61,910 8,657,936 Pittsburgh, PA...Syracuse, NY...Scranton, PA...Utica, NY...Harrisburg, PA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140902 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140902 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 62,020 8,575,965 Pittsburgh, PA...Syracuse, NY...Scranton, PA...Utica, NY...Harrisburg, PA...
5 % 254,135 37,549,754 Memphis, TN...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Nashville, TN...Buffalo, NY...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140902 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 61,757 3,808,894 Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Topeka, KS...Broken Arrow, OK...Fayetteville, AR...
   SPC AC 021617

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1117 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

   VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
   PARTS OF PA/NY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF PENNSYLVANIA AND
   NEW YORK...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHER ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
   STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN STATES AND
   TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND
   KANSAS OVERNIGHT.

   ...PA/NY INTO WV/KY...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT THIS MORNING OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
   GREAT LAKES STATES...PROGRESSING EASTWARD.  THIS FEATURE AND AN
   ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE SCATTERED
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY OVER PARTS OF PA/NY.  FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW RATHER STRONG DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW
   AND HIGH PWAT VALUES...SUGGESTIVE OF A RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING LINE
   OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT CAPABLE OF ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO CONFIRMS THIS REGION
   WILL SEE SUBSTANTIAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY.  IT
   APPEARS THE RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS DECREASES FARTHER SOUTH
   INTO WV/KY WHERE THE UPPER SYSTEM HAS LESS AFFECT AND WIND FIELDS
   ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER.  NEVERTHELESS...THE STRONGEST CORES IN THIS
   REGION WILL ALSO POSE AN ISOLATED THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE.

   ...KY/TN/MS/AR...
   THE REMNANTS OF A LARGE NOCTURNAL MCS CONTINUES TO AFFECT PARTS OF
   OK/AR...WITH THE LEADING-EDGE GUST FRONT OF THE CONVECTION EXTENDING
   FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO SOUTHEAST OK.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
   SAG SOUTHWARD TODAY INTO A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. 
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM HERE...AS WELL AS FARTHER
   NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF KY/TN.  WIND FIELDS ARE WEAK AND CONVECTIVE
   ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED.  HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST STORMS
   COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

   ...OK/KS TONIGHT...
   SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY
   TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS WILL LEAD OF A
   REGION OF ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT IN VICINITY OF REMNANT
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OF ONGOING CONVECTION OVER OK.  PRESENT INDICATIONS
   ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NEAR OR AFTER SUNSET IN
   NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS AND DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.  A FEW
   OF THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  THIS
   SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED TODAY FOR SIGNS OF GREATER COVERAGE OF
   THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK.

   ..HART/ROGERS.. 09/02/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z