Sep 23, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 23 16:21:22 UTC 2014 (20140923 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140923 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140923 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140923 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140923 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 49,737 391,562 Kearney, NE...Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...North Platte, NE...Hays, KS...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140923 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 51,026 401,760 Kearney, NE...Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...North Platte, NE...Hays, KS...
   SPC AC 231621

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1121 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

   VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS COULD BE STRONG TO
   MARGINALLY SEVERE.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   MID-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST IN
   RESPONSE TO THE EWD PROGRESSION OF AN INTENSE TROUGH OVER THE NERN
   PACIFIC...AND THE TRANSLATION OF A SHORTER-WAVELENGTH TROUGH FROM
   THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ELSEWHERE...A MID
   TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE CAROLINAS.

   AT THE SURFACE...MID-MORNING MESOANALYSIS PLACED A CYCLONE OVER SWRN
   SD WITH AN ASSOCIATED LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SSWWD TO A WEAKER LOW
   OVER E-CNTRL CO BEFORE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE OVER THE OK/TX PNHDLS.
   AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMNANT FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS STRETCHED FROM
   CNTRL KS WWD TO THE ERN CO LOW. THE LEE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE
   SLOWLY EWD TODAY WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMING
   ESTABLISHED OVER WRN NEB. THE ABOVE-MENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   SHOULD EVENTUALLY WASH OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

   ...CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

   DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT NIGHT TSTMS COUPLED WITH
   A RELATIVELY MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A DESTABILIZING
   AIR MASS TODAY AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE
   APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. WHILE THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF HEIGHT
   FALLS/DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TROUGH WILL SHIFT
   INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL
   GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A WEAK VORTICITY LOBE OVER WY MAY PROGRESS
   SEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...POTENTIALLY ENHANCING DEEP-LAYER
   ASCENT ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
   SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM N-CNTRL
   NEB INTO WRN KS. 

   A SUBSET OF THESE STORMS COULD EXHIBIT SOME MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT
   ROTATION OWING TO THE OVERLAP OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A
   VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH AROUND 30 KT OF DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR. AS SUCH...ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING
   PRIOR TO THE STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

   ..MEAD/ROGERS.. 09/23/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z