Sep 1, 2015 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 1 16:25:27 UTC 2015 (20150901 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150901 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150901 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150901 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150901 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150901 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 011625

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1125 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

   VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT FORECAST OVER THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED
   STATES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE
   MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
   NW AND NRN ROCKIES WHERE AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE MID/UPPER FLOW THIS EVENING
   AND OVERNIGHT. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW A LOW-AMPLITUDE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS NEB WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH FARTHER UPSTREAM MOVING TOWARDS SRN CA. TWO MID-LEVEL LOWS
   ARE ALSO PRESENT -- ONE CENTERED OVER IND AND ANOTHER LARGER LOW
   OVER THE TX GULF COAST -- WITHIN THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM
   THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO S TX. 

   SURFACE PATTERN IS EQUALLY RELAXED...WITH A COMPARATIVELY WEAK
   GRADIENT ACROSS THE CONUS. WEAK LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEB WILL CONTINUE
   TO LOSE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY
   AND LEE TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. 

   ...CNTRL AZ...
   GENERALLY WIDESPREAD TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
   AREA FROM SE AZ NNEWD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS. GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW
   ALOFT...STORM ORGANIZATION IS UNLIKELY ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
   POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO MOVE INTO CNTRL AZ DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS
   SCENARIO HAS EVOLVED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH SOME MEASURED SEVERE
   GUSTS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE PHX AREA. LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR
   MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM TUS AND PHX ARE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
   WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO A BIT WEAKER. HIGHS ACROSS THE
   REGION MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS WELL. THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS
   ON TOP OF AN ALREADY LOW RISK SHOULD TEMPER THE NEED FOR SEVERE
   PROBS OVER THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A GUSTY DOWNBURST OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

   ..MOSIER.. 09/01/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z