Oct 30, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Oct 30 16:20:07 UTC 2014 (20141030 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141030 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141030 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 37,848 3,676,569 Austin, TX...Killeen, TX...Round Rock, TX...Temple, TX...Cedar Park, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141030 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141030 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141030 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 37,956 3,663,775 Austin, TX...Killeen, TX...Round Rock, TX...Temple, TX...Cedar Park, TX...
   SPC AC 301620

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1120 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

   VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
   ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS...FLORIDA...AND THE OZARKS TO MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
   PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...TX...
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WEST TX
   INTO WESTERN OK.  THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TODAY INTO NORTH TX
   BY LATE AFTERNOON.  CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND SLOW MOISTURE
   INFLUX INTO THE REGION WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND
   1000 J/KG AND ONLY A WEAK CAP.  ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER NORTH TX
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
   ACROSS THE MARGINAL RISK AREA.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40
   KNOTS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL POSE SOME RISK OF HAIL IN
   THE STRONGEST CELLS.  ACTIVITY MAY BUILD SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
   THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

   ..HART/LEITMAN.. 10/30/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z