Aug 1, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Aug 1 16:24:27 UTC 2014 (20140801 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140801 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140801 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140801 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 40,190 6,495,769 Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Durham, NC...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140801 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 142,851 9,393,506 Raleigh, NC...Durham, NC...Fayetteville, NC...Columbia, SC...Cary, NC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140801 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 119,211 8,177,172 Milwaukee, WI...Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Madison, WI...Rockford, IL...
   SPC AC 011624

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1124 AM CDT FRI AUG 01 2014

   VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SOME WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT...WILL
   OCCUR OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...WESTERN
   SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NEBRASKA...AND FROM PARTS OF GEORGIA INTO THE
   CAROLINAS.

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   LITTLE CHANGE TO AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN EXPECTED
   THROUGH SAT. BROAD ERN TROUGH EXTENDING SSW FROM SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE
   JAMES BAY LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE OH AND MS VLYS. WITHIN THE
   TROUGH...ONE LOW-AMPLITUDE/ELONGATED IMPULSE NOW OVER GA AND THE SRN
   APPALACHIANS WILL SHEAR NNE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
   CST LATER TODAY/TNGT...WHILE UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER MN
   CONTINUES SE INTO THE MID MS VLY. FARTHER W...SATELLITE SHOWS
   SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TOPPING THE WRN RIDGE. THE ONE NOW IN ORE
   SHOULD DRIFT NEWD AND WEAKEN...WHILE LOOSELY-ORGANIZED FEATURE IN
   SRN SK/NE MT CONTINUES ESE INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS.

   FEATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK AT THE SFC. SHALLOW SW-NE BOUNDARY
   MARKING THE NWRN FRINGE OF WRN ATLANTIC/CARIBBEAN AIR...NOW STALLED
   ALONG THE SRN NC CST...SHOULD DRIFT A BIT INLAND ACROSS FAR ERN NC
   AND FAR SERN VA TODAY/TNGT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPR IMPULSE.
   OTHERWISE...POORLY-DEFINED LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN QSTNRY OVER THE
   NRN HIGH PLNS.

   ...GA/CNTRL-ERN CAROLINAS INTO SE VA TODAY/TNGT...
   NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND WDLY SCTD TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
   PIEDMONT/CSTL PLN OF GA...THE CAROLINAS...AND SE VA THROUGH EARLY
   SAT. ACTIVITY WILL BE FOSTERED BY ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHEARING
   UPR IMPULSE AND RICH MOISTURE /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CST...WHERE PW
   WILL REMAIN AOA 2 INCHES/. MODEST SFC HEATING AND TIMING OF UPR
   IMPULSE SUGGEST COVERAGE/INTENSITY MAY PEAK LATER THIS AFTN INTO
   TNGT OVER ERN NC AND SE VA.

   LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER MUCH OF THE REGION GIVEN
   EXISTING CLOUDS/RAIN. BUT A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LVL DIRECTIONAL
   SHEAR...SAMPLED ATTM BY THE MHX VWP...WILL PERSIST NEAR
   AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. AS THAT BOUNDARY DRIFTS A BIT NWWD LATER
   TODAY...AND AS BAND OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER 700-500 MB FLOW/ASCENT
   OVERSPREAD REGION AHEAD OF UPR DISTURBANCE...A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
   MAY ACQUIRE LOW-LVL ROTATION GIVEN CONFLUENT/LOW LCL/MOISTURE-RICH
   ENVIRONMENT.

   RELATIVELY WEAK BACKGROUND PRESSURE FIELD SHOULD KEEP LOW-LVL
   WINDS...AND MAGNITUDE OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...FAIRLY MODEST. BUT SOME
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR OCCASIONAL STORM-SCALE
   VORTICITY/CONVERGENCE AUGMENTATION. THUS...THERE WILL BE A
   CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES...EVEN THOUGH THE OVERALL
   THREAT STILL APPEARS TOO DISORGANIZED/ISOLD/TRANSIENT TO WARRANT AN
   OUTLOOK UPGRADE ATTM. IF AN UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK WERE TO BE REQUIRED
   LATER TODAY...IT MOST LIKELY WOULD BE FOR FAR ERN/NERN NC.

   FARTHER W/SW...WHERE SFC HEATING WILL BE SOMEWHAT
   GREATER...PRECIP-LOADING MAY YIELD A DMGG GUST OR TWO ALONG
   SECONDARY WIND SHIFT LINE MOVING E ACROSS CNTRL NC...CNTRL/ERN
   SC...AND ERN GA THIS AFTN.

   ...UPR MS VLY THIS AFTN...
   STRONG SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR TODAY BENEATH MN UPR IMPULSE AS IT
   CONTINUES SEWD INTO PARTS OF WI/IL AND IA...SUPPORTING WDLY SCTD
   AFTN TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN ZONE OF WEAK LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE/MODEST
   MOISTURE. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP...SUGGESTING
   POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN STRONGER UPDRAFTS. BUT WEAK SHEAR SHOULD KEEP
   ANY SVR THREAT TRANSIENT/ISOLD.

   ...NRN PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE...
   MID-LVL LAPSE RATES/ASCENT WILL INCREASE OVER WRN PARTS OF THE NRN
   PLNS TODAY...DOWNSTREAM FROM SK/MT UPR TROUGH. COUPLED WITH STRONG
   SFC HEATING...MODEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE /PW .75-1.00 INCH/...AND WEAK
   UPLIFT ALONG LEE TROUGH/TERRAIN...SETUP MAY YIELD WDLY SCTD AFTN
   STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL GIVEN INVERTED-V SUB
   CLOUD LAYER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.

   ..CORFIDI/MOSIER.. 08/01/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z