Mar 31, 2015 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Mar 31 16:24:48 UTC 2015 (20150331 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150331 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150331 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 182,848 14,623,274 Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...Plano, TX...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...
MARGINAL 171,199 16,669,910 Dallas, TX...Jacksonville, FL...Fort Worth, TX...Atlanta, GA...Tulsa, OK...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150331 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 32,426 1,174,155 Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Sherman, TX...Paris, TX...Ardmore, OK...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150331 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 182,289 14,499,354 Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...Plano, TX...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...
5 % 170,008 16,720,921 Dallas, TX...Jacksonville, FL...Fort Worth, TX...Atlanta, GA...Tulsa, OK...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150331 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 31,366 1,235,334 Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Sherman, TX...Paris, TX...
15 % 182,320 14,558,943 Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...Plano, TX...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...
5 % 170,398 16,654,837 Dallas, TX...Jacksonville, FL...Fort Worth, TX...Atlanta, GA...Tulsa, OK...
   SPC AC 311624

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1124 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

   VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WESTERN OK AND NORTH TX
   INTO THE GULF COAST STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE
   RED RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF
   ARKANSAS...TENNESSEE...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND GEORGIA.

   MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
   EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
   SOUTHEAST STATES.  THIS AXIS IS ALSO WHERE A WEAK SURFACE BAROCLINIC
   ZONE RESIDES...RESULTING IN A LONG...NARROW REGION WHERE SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  A FEW
   OF THESE STORM CLUSTERS WILL POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS.

   ...OK/NORTH TX...
   STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF OK AND NORTH TX...WHERE
   STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
   WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500+ J/KG.  PRESENT
   INDICATIONS ARE THAT...DESPITE WEAK FORCING...SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON WHEN HEATING FINALLY ELIMINATES THE CAP ALONG THE
   DRYLINE.  A SUBTLE FEATURE OVER EASTERN CO IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
   AND MAY PROMOTE CONVECTIVE INITIATION.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS...BUT SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR A
   RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. 
   MOST RECENT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST STORMS WILL CONGEAL
   ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH TX THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING BEFORE
   MIDNIGHT.

   ...AR TO GA...
   A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER AR WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
   GULF COAST STATES TODAY...WHERE A RATHER WEAK CAP AND STEEP MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRESENT.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
   AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SLIGHT RISK CORRIDOR.  DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT MLCAPE VALUES WILL FAVOR ROTATING STORMS
   CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.

   ..HART/ROGERS.. 03/31/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z