Feb 7, 2016 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Feb 7 16:18:18 UTC 2016 (20160207 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160207 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160207 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160207 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160207 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160207 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 071618

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1018 AM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

   VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
   CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES.

   ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...
   AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
   THE WRN ATLANTIC SHIFTS NEWD TODAY...A DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE
   APPROXIMATELY 180 MI SE OF KILM AS OF 16Z WILL LIKEWISE MOVE NEWD
   PARALLEL TO THE NC/SC COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOVING
   OVER THE OPEN WRN ATLANTIC AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CONUS TONIGHT.
   ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE
   THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...BUT INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
   JUST OFFSHORE THE OUTER BANKS OF NC.

   FURTHER W...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING
   WILL AMPLIFY AND SHIFT SEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...ENCOMPASSING MUCH
   OF THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS BY EARLY MON. STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MAY
   ALLOW FOR MEAGER INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP FROM PORTIONS OF NRN MO INTO
   SRN IL/IND AND KY/TN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
   HOWEVER...VERY LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE SUGGESTS ANY SHOWERY
   CONVECTION THAT FORMS IN THIS REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN SHALLOW AND
   NOT REACH A SUFFICIENT HEIGHT TO INDUCE CHARGE SEPARATION AND
   LIGHTNING.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 02/07/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z