Oct 19, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Oct 19 16:27:33 UTC 2014 (20141019 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141019 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141019 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141019 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141019 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141019 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 191627

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1127 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

   VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY INTO
   TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MORE
   ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A WEAK CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT EWD OVER SRN AZ/NW MEXICO WITHIN THE
   SRN STREAM OF A SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE WRN STATES.  GRADUAL
   LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTENING /PER 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS/ AND WEAK ASCENT
   NE OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK FOR
   WIDELY-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AZ/NM.  FARTHER E...AN INFLUX
   OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SW TX
   WILL MAINTAIN A THUNDERSTORM RISK THROUGH TONIGHT.  ALSO...A WEAK
   WAA REGIME MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
   INVOF THE KS/OK BORDER.

   ...SE AZ TO SRN NM/FAR W TX THIS AFTERNOON...
   THE ONLY POTENTIAL RISK AREA FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   WILL BE FROM EXTREME SE AZ EWD ACROSS SRN NM AND FAR W TX.  12Z
   SOUNDINGS FROM EPZ/TUS...MODIFIED FOR EXPECTED AFTERNOON SURFACE
   CONDITIONS...YIELD MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   OF 7-8 C/KM.  DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE ON THE LOWER MARGINS
   FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KT/. 
   SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST
   STORMS...BUT THE OVERALL HAIL/WIND RISK APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
   THE ADDITION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

   ..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 10/19/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z