Jan 27, 2015 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jan 27 15:59:03 UTC 2015 (20150127 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150127 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150127 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150127 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150127 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150127 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 271559

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0959 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

   VALID 271630Z - 281200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS THE GREAT BASIN
   THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
   EXPECTED OVER THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP/FORECAST...
   PATTERN WILL SOMEWHAT DEAMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS CA/SRN NV SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH SHEARS NE ACROSS THE NRN GRT BASIN...WHILE DEEP NEW ENGLAND
   SYSTEM GRADUALLY PIVOTS NE AND WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO IMPULSE
   CROSSING HUDSON BAY. COLD AND/OR DRY AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL AT
   LWR LVLS E OF THE RCKYS.

   A CORRIDOR OF SEASONABLY MOIST AIR WILL LINGER OVER PARTS OF THE LWR
   CO VLY IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPR TROUGH. BUOYANCY AND LIFT IN THIS
   REGION WILL...HOWEVER...BE TOO LIMITED FOR DIURNAL STORMS.
   FARTHER NE ACROSS ERN/NRN NV...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT MID-LVL
   COOL POCKET /AOB MINUS 20 C AT 500 MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
   WILL OVERSPREAD 700 MB MOISTURE BAND SPREADING NEWD FROM THE LWR CO
   VLY. COMBINATION OF LIFT WITH THE MAIN VORT MAX /NOW OVER S CNTRL
   NV/ AND MODEST ELEVATED BUOYANCY MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEPENING OF
   ELEVATED CONVECTION TO YIELD A SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO OF TSTMS LATER
   TODAY THROUGH EARLY EVE.

   ..CORFIDI/GLEASON.. 01/27/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z