Apr 1, 2015 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Apr 1 16:22:56 UTC 2015 (20150401 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150401 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150401 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 138,875 12,520,848 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Omaha, NE...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
MARGINAL 200,334 14,788,572 Jacksonville, FL...Memphis, TN...Tulsa, OK...Minneapolis, MN...Wichita, KS...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150401 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 30,251 2,910,594 Dallas, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...Mesquite, TX...Richardson, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150401 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 138,532 12,510,911 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Omaha, NE...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
5 % 206,317 15,129,404 Jacksonville, FL...Memphis, TN...Tulsa, OK...Minneapolis, MN...Wichita, KS...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150401 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 137,428 12,479,660 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Omaha, NE...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
5 % 186,585 12,115,604 Memphis, TN...Tulsa, OK...Minneapolis, MN...Wichita, KS...St. Paul, MN...
   SPC AC 011622

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1122 AM CDT WED APR 01 2015

   VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL KS INTO
   SOUTHERN MN...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTH TX INTO SOUTHERN
   MO...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND
   CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
   THE OZARKS REGION...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF GA/FL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS...ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
   NORTHERN KANSAS NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  ALSO...WIDELY
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
   FROM NORTH TEXAS INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.  A
   SEPARATE AREA OF CONCERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
   WILL EXIST ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

   ...MN/IA/NEB/KS...
   FORECAST APPEARS TO REMAIN ON TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
   PLAINS.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
   FROM SOUTHWEST MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS BY LATE AFTERNOON.  STEEP
   LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
   HAIL.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR MCS DURING THE
   EVENING WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.  DUE TO
   RATHER LOW DEWPOINTS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...THE SEVERE THREAT
   WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

   ...TX/OK/AR/MO...
   MULTIPLE MCV CENTERS ARE NOTED THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN OK INTO
   NORTH TX.  THESE ARE ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF A PLUME OF
   RELATIVELY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
   TX INTO SOUTHERN MO.  12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT...DESPITE
   WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING...SUFFICIENT MESOSCALE FORCING AND DAYTIME
   HEATING MAY RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
   IN THIS AREA.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PARAMETERS FAVORABLE FOR
   ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS.

   ..HART/ROGERS.. 04/01/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z