Jul 28, 2016 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jul 28 16:29:31 UTC 2016 (20160728 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160728 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160728 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 45,930 316,396 Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Liberal, KS...Hays, KS...Great Bend, KS...
SLIGHT 175,273 16,747,135 Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Wichita, KS...Richmond, VA...Arlington, VA...
MARGINAL 328,797 41,517,724 Chicago, IL...Philadelphia, PA...Phoenix, AZ...Denver, CO...Oklahoma City, OK...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160728 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 13,759 45,778 No Major Population Center in Risk Area
2 % 112,423 20,636,031 Chicago, IL...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Richmond, VA...Arlington, VA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160728 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 33,044 248,237 Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Liberal, KS...Great Bend, KS...
30 % 45,998 319,776 Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Liberal, KS...Hays, KS...Great Bend, KS...
15 % 175,391 16,655,121 Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Wichita, KS...Richmond, VA...Arlington, VA...
5 % 279,466 32,121,881 Philadelphia, PA...Phoenix, AZ...Denver, CO...Oklahoma City, OK...Tucson, AZ...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160728 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 29,111 415,372 Fort Collins, CO...Greeley, CO...Evans, CO...Windsor, CO...Sterling, CO...
15 % 70,800 835,130 Fort Collins, CO...Greeley, CO...Cheyenne, WY...Brighton, CO...North Platte, NE...
5 % 156,400 5,568,341 Denver, CO...Wichita, KS...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Thornton, CO...
   SPC AC 281629

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1129 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

   VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN CO THROUGH WRN AND
   SCNTRL KS INTO NWRN OK...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH
   NRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE MID
   ATLANTIC REGION...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
   THROUGH THE CNTRL AND A PORTION OF THE SRN PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS
   THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF NEW
   ENGLAND...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NRN IL INTO EXTREME SRN
   WI...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN AZ...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS AND PARTS OF KANSAS TO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED LATE
   AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...WITH STORMS EVOLVING INTO A SQUALL LINE
   PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS TONIGHT. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
   WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A PORTION
   OF VIRGINIA INTO THE DELMARVA AREA.

   ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS AREA...

   SEVERAL MCVS EMBEDDED WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT ARE EVIDENT ON WV
   IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING...THE MOST PRONOUNCED OF WHICH IS OVER ERN
   WY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE FEATURES
   FROM WRN NEB INTO NWRN KS. A LEE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD
   OVER ERN CO WITH ELY UPSLOPE WINDS NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. THIS WILL
   MAINTAIN UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS OVER ERN CO WITH LOW-MID 60S FARTHER
   EAST ACROSS WRN/CNTRL KS BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES. STRONG DIABATIC
   WARMING SOUTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING STORMS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   MODERATE INSTABILITY /1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE/ THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
   ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG
   RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING STORMS FROM SWRN
   NEB INTO NWRN KS WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND WY AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD SEWD. ESELY
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF EVOLVING LEE LOW AND INCREASING NWLY WINDS
   ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE SEWD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
   40+ KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. SUPERCELL STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR VERY
   LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE LIKELY WITH INITIAL
   DEVELOPMENT...BUT ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY GROW UPSCALE INTO MCS
   CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WIND BECOMING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

   ...MID ATLANTIC REGION...

   STRONG DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF AN
   EXPANSIVE MULTI-LAYER CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL
   MOIST PLUME WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
   1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. MORNING RAOB DATA SHOWED ONLY WEAK CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION WHICH SHOULD ERODE WITH FURTHER DIABATIC
   WARMING...CONTRIBUTING TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN AS WELL AS IN THE WARM SECTOR. A BELT OF 35-40 KT WINDS
   ABOVE 700 MB IS RESULTING IN 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. DOMINANT
   STORM MODE SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR...BUT A FEW MARGINAL SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY
   THREAT.

   ...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KT WILL BE MAINTAINED SOUTH OF A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH SHIFTING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL
   CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
   ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE BUOYANCY MAY REMAIN WEAK...THE STRENGTH OF
   SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

   ...SOUTHERN AZ...

   15-30 KT 500-MB EAST-NORTHEASTERLIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
   LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING. WHILE GUIDANCE LARGELY SUGGESTS STORM
   COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN COMPARED TO
   WED...THE STRENGTH OF THE FLOW COULD FOSTER A COUPLE STORMS
   PROPAGATING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS.

   ...NRN IL THROUGH EXTREME SRN WI...

   HAVE INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK IN THIS REGION. REF SWOMCD 1415 FOR
   MORE INFORMATION.

   ..DIAL/COHEN.. 07/28/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z