Sep 19, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Sep 19 16:27:44 UTC 2014 (20140919 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140919 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140919 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140919 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140919 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 54,153 3,298,531 St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Rochester, MN...Sioux City, IA...Bloomington, MN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140919 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 104,614 4,994,488 Sioux Falls, SD...Rochester, MN...Sioux City, IA...Bloomington, MN...Eagan, MN...
   SPC AC 191627

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1127 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

   VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE THIS EVENING AND
   TONIGHT FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO PARTS OF WISCONSIN...AND OVER
   NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRACKING ACROSS MT/DAKOTAS TODAY...AND WILL
   AFFECT PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES STATES THIS
   EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.  MULTIPLE AREAS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT ARE EXPECTED...BUT THE RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
   APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

   ...NORTHERN MN...
   SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER
   NORTHERN MN...IN REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND ASCENT AHEAD
   OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
   CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.  HOWEVER...DECREASING
   CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN SOME DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...AND
   THE POTENTIAL FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  12Z
   CAMS CONSISTENTLY SHOW ISOLATED STRONG STORMS IN THIS REGION DURING
   THE 22-02Z PERIOD...POSING A RISK OF HAIL.  THIS THREAT SHOULD
   DIMINISH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

   ...NEB/IA INTO WI...
   LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY OVER PARTS OF
   NEB/IA...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY.  FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING...WHICH WILL
   GREATLY LIMIT THE RISK OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS MUCH OF THE DAY. 
   HOWEVER...CONTINUED LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
   WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW STORMS TO FORM ALONG AND NORTH OF
   STRENGTHENING SURFACE BOUNDARY.  MODERATE CAPE VALUES SOUTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS FROM
   NORTHEAST NEB...ACROSS NORTHERN IA...INTO WESTERN WI THIS EVENING. 
   HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   MIGRATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WI INTO MI OVERNIGHT...BUT THE
   ODDS OF VIGOROUS STORMS APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBS IN
   THIS AREA.

   ..HART/LEITMAN.. 09/19/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z