Dec 5, 2016 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Dec 5 16:27:09 UTC 2016 (20161205 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20161205 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20161205 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 53,578 4,264,627 New Orleans, LA...Mobile, AL...Tallahassee, FL...Albany, GA...Gulfport, MS...
MARGINAL 88,526 8,386,347 Jacksonville, FL...Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Metairie, LA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20161205 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 42,806 3,298,751 Mobile, AL...Tallahassee, FL...Albany, GA...Dothan, AL...Pensacola, FL...
2 % 60,140 5,817,055 Jacksonville, FL...New Orleans, LA...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Metairie, LA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20161205 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 53,617 4,219,116 New Orleans, LA...Mobile, AL...Tallahassee, FL...Albany, GA...Gulfport, MS...
5 % 90,934 8,617,464 Jacksonville, FL...Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Metairie, LA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20161205 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 051627

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1027 AM CST MON DEC 05 2016

   VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF
   LA...MS...AL...GA...AND FL...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
   STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
   A COUPLE TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
   PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.

   ...SOUTHEAST STATES...
   WATER VAPOR LOOP CONFIRMS A COMPACT UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
   ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TX.  THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
   WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY...PROMOTING LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS
   ALONG A REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.  MODELS
   INDICATE THAT THE BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND
   SLOWLY INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  A MOIST AND MARGINALLY
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT
   SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AND A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  LOW
   LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BY EVENING...
   SUGGESTING SOME RISK OF A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. 
   MAIN CHANGES FOR THIS OUTLOOK UPDATE ARE TO TRIM THE NORTHERN EXTENT
   OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA DUE TO UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR INLAND THE WARM
   FRONT WILL MOVE...AND TO EXTEND THE RISK AREAS EASTWARD INTO MORE OF
   GA/FL DUE TO AN OVERNIGHT RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS TRACKING ALONG
   THE FRONT.

   ..HART/ROGERS.. 12/05/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z