Oct 1, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Oct 1 16:29:50 UTC 2014 (20141001 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141001 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141001 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 106,107 6,693,329 Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Overland Park, KS...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141001 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 17,291 463,896 Joplin, MO...Pittsburg, KS...Miami, OK...Carthage, MO...El Dorado, KS...
2 % 36,368 3,973,837 Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...Overland Park, KS...Springfield, MO...Kansas City, KS...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141001 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 104,673 6,523,185 Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...
5 % 251,421 16,585,854 Denver, CO...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...Colorado Springs, CO...St. Louis, MO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141001 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 22,773 735,482 Joplin, MO...Emporia, KS...Pittsburg, KS...Miami, OK...Carthage, MO...
30 % 13,998 364,951 Joplin, MO...Pittsburg, KS...Carthage, MO...Parsons, KS...Webb City, MO...
15 % 90,284 6,242,878 Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Overland Park, KS...
5 % 188,266 10,837,721 Omaha, NE...St. Louis, MO...Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...Springfield, MO...
   SPC AC 011629

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1129 AM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

   VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND
   NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GREATEST RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WILL
   EXIST OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING. A SEPARATE ROUND OF STRONG
   TO SEVERE STORMS MAY FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY AND
   SPREAD EAST INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT THROUGH
   EARLY THURSDAY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE INTERIOR WEST THROUGH
   GREAT PLAINS WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THIS FEATURE OCCURRING
   DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD. WITHIN THIS BROADER-SCALE REGIME...A
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID MO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN WHILE EJECTING
   NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
   AND ATTENDANT MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA WHICH WILL PROGRESS
   FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
   THURSDAY.

   AT THE SURFACE...A LOW OVER FAR NWRN OK AS OF MID MORNING MAY DRIFT
   SLOWLY E/NE TODAY WHILE AN ASSOCIATED DRYLINE SHARPENS FROM THE
   VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE SWWD INTO W-CNTRL TX. MEANWHILE...A WEAK
   COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS AND
   UPPER MS VALLEY WITH THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT OVER WRN KS
   BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE WITH THE ONSET OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SERN
   CO LATER TODAY. TONIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN
   MARKEDLY WHILE PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND SEWD/SWD
   THROUGH THE CNTRL INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS...GRADUALLY OVERTAKING THE
   DOWNSTREAM FRONT/DRYLINE.  

   ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
   TONIGHT...

   12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE-DERIVED PW IMAGERY INDICATE
   THAT ROBUST MOISTURE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM SRN PORTIONS OF THE
   OZARK PLATEAU TO WRN GULF COAST WITH LOWEST 100-MB MEAN-MIXING
   RATIOS OF 13-14 G/KG COMMON ACROSS NRN PARTS OF THESE AREAS. AND
   WHILE OBSERVED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
   STEEP...THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD A
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AFTERNOON AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING
   2000-2500 J/KG.

   GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE INFLUX
   OF THIS INSTABILITY INTO EARLY-DAY STORMS PRESENT OVER NRN INTO
   CNTRL MO...LIKELY ALLOWING SOME TO INTENSIFY WHILE BECOMING
   SURFACE-BASED ACROSS CNTRL INTO SRN MO LATER TODAY INTO THIS
   EVENING. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORM
   MODES /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWS/ WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING
   DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

   TO THE SW OF THIS TSTM REGIME FROM S-CNTRL/SERN KS INTO CNTRL
   OK...AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN OWING TO THE
   TENDENCY FOR SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE
   DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. AS SUCH...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE
   N-CNTRL OK/S-CNTRL KS LOW...ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND
   THE DRYLINE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
   SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN
   STORM INITIATION...THE PRESENCE OF 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING
   LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE WITH
   ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS OVER SERN KS THIS EVENING OWING TO THE
   ENHANCEMENT OF NEAR-GROUND SHEAR BY THE INTENSIFYING LLJ.

   TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AN ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS
   EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ALONG OR IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
   STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT ADVANCING ESEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS. SUFFICIENTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...INCREASED LARGE-SCALE
   FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
   OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL.

   ..MEAD/SMITH.. 10/01/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z