Apr 29, 2016 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Apr 29 16:30:28 UTC 2016 (20160429 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160429 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160429 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 71,276 10,609,180 Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
SLIGHT 137,343 14,800,582 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Shreveport, LA...
MARGINAL 161,438 8,930,200 Memphis, TN...Wichita, KS...Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Jackson, MS...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160429 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
10 % 45,365 8,186,686 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
5 % 79,267 9,217,970 San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Shreveport, LA...Killeen, TX...Norman, OK...
2 % 80,515 6,330,155 Houston, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Little Rock, AR...Pasadena, TX...Sugar Land, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160429 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 178,799 23,218,939 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...
5 % 118,529 5,936,901 Jackson, MS...Abilene, TX...Beaumont, TX...San Angelo, TX...Tuscaloosa, AL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160429 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 69,171 11,155,904 Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
30 % 71,461 10,612,095 Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
15 % 136,665 14,716,742 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Shreveport, LA...
5 % 161,760 9,008,261 Memphis, TN...Wichita, KS...Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Jackson, MS...
   SPC AC 291630

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

   VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
   TONIGHT FOR SW AR...S CENTRAL AND SE OK...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AND N
   TX INTO NE TX...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM S CENTRAL TX NWD TO
   WRN/NRN OK AND EWD TO THE ARKLAMISS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
   AREA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION TO THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

   ...SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...
   A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NM THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT ENEWD
   OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND REACH THE I-35
   CORRIDOR IN OK/KS LATE TONIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL
   DEVELOP ENEWD FROM NW TX TO SW OK THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE
   NEWD INTO KS OVERNIGHT.  FARTHER E...A BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS BEEN
   REINFORCED BY OVERNIGHT/MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM OK INTO AR.
   S OF THE BOUNDARY...NEAR SEASONAL MAXIMUM BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
   PRESENT /LOW-MID 70S DEWPOINTS AND MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 15-19 G PER
   KG/.  THIS MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND SOME SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS...WILL SUPPORT STRONG
   BUOYANCY TODAY IN THE WARM SECTOR.

   DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS IN THE
   WARM SECTOR WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 45 KT.  A SUBTLE LEAD WAVE
   NOTED IN VWP DATA ACROSS W/NW TX IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL LIKELY
   HELP FOCUS NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WARM
   SECTOR NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN TX.  STRONG BUOYANCY...RICH
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH
   OF 150-200 M2 PER S2/ WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR TORNADOES...ISOLATED
   VERY LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS.  FARTHER N...THE
   BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY DRIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT INTO SRN OK...THOUGH
   CONTINUING ELEVATED CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
   LIMIT NWD PROGRESS OF THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL THE SURFACE CYCLONE
   MOVES FARTHER N BY TONIGHT.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER INVOF
   THE WARM FRONT...AND THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES
   WITH STORMS INTERACTING WITH THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW.  LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER
   FROM ABOUT I-35 EWD INTO SW AR.  

   THE SEVERE THREAT BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
   LOW INTO SW OK.  NWD PROGRESS OF THE WARM SECTOR IS A BIT
   UNCERTAIN...AND VWP/S ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHOW THE INFLUENCE OF
   THE LEAD WAVE ON WIND PROFILES WITH THE MIDLEVEL BACKING.  THERE IS
   SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT AMONG NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
   DETAILS OF BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS SW AND S CENTRAL OK
   THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO THE SPECIFIC EXPECTED STORM STRUCTURES ARE
   LIKEWISE UNCERTAIN.  WILL MAINTAIN PART OF ENH RISK INTO SW OK FOR
   SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WITH HAIL/WIND...AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF
   TORNADOES...SINCE RECENT MESONET OBS DO SUGGEST WARMING AND
   MOISTENING IS OCCURRING.

   FARTHER E IN AR...THE LARGE OVERNIGHT MCS PERSISTS WITH AN MCV OVER
   N CENTRAL AR...AND STRONGER CONVECTION ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   ACROSS SRN AR.  IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THIS OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN
   QUASI-STATIONARY OR EVEN DRIFT SWD/SEWD AS A RESULT ON CONTINUING
   OUTFLOW REINFORCEMENT BY CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  OTHER
   WARM SECTOR STORMS HAVE FORMED IN NW LA WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS...AND
   MORE SUCH DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO NE TX AND
   NW LA.  BUOYANCY/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE WILL FAVOR A HAIL RISK WITH
   ANY SUSTAINED STORMS...ALONG WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND A FEW
   TORNADOES.

   ..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 04/29/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z