Oct 25, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Oct 25 16:26:53 UTC 2014 (20141025 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141025 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141025 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 29,242 1,073,905 Redding, CA...Chico, CA...Paradise, CA...Eureka, CA...Windsor, CA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141025 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 29,252 1,074,644 Redding, CA...Chico, CA...Paradise, CA...Eureka, CA...Windsor, CA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141025 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141025 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 251626

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1126 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

   VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SW
   ORE/NW CA COASTS TO THE NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
   NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON FROM MIDDAY THROUGH
   THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW OF THESE MAY BRING THE RISK OF A WEAK/BRIEF
   TORNADO.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF
   NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

   ...SW ORE/NW CA AND NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...
   A STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE PAC NW
   AND NRN CA COASTS TODAY.  RADAR IMAGERY HAS CONFIRMED LOW-TOPPED
   CONVECTION WITH WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THE DEEP BAROCLINIC ZONE
   APPROACHING THE NW CA/SW ORE COAST...WHILE SATELLITE
   IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA SHOW ADDITIONAL CONVECTION/ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE.  EWD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING
   COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT OVER LAND AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   DESTABILIZATION AS FAR E AS THE NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS
   AFTERNOON.  IN TANDEM WITH THE INLAND DESTABILIZATION...VERTICAL
   SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS FOR A FEW HOURS
   BEFORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS AND SHEAR WEAKENS.  SINCE BUOYANCY WILL
   REMAIN RATHER WEAK INLAND /SBCAPE OF 100-300 J PER KG/...THE OVERALL
   TORNADO RISK WILL REMAIN MARGINAL.

   ...NRN NY STATE INTO VT/NH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
   A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET STREAK OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   WILL TRANSLATE ESEWD TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS
   AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT.  STEEPENING
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
   ASCENT WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAK...COULD SUPPORT
   ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
   FRONTAL PASSAGE.

   ..THOMPSON/MARSH.. 10/25/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z