Nov 23, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 23 16:29:32 UTC 2014 (20141123 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141123 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141123 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 94,519 7,129,164 Columbus, GA...Tallahassee, FL...Savannah, GA...Charleston, SC...Macon, GA...
MARGINAL 49,011 8,034,250 Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Montgomery, AL...Newport News, VA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141123 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 85,781 6,318,414 Tallahassee, FL...Savannah, GA...Charleston, SC...Wilmington, NC...North Charleston, SC...
2 % 39,747 5,805,372 Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141123 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 95,223 7,234,200 Columbus, GA...Tallahassee, FL...Savannah, GA...Charleston, SC...Macon, GA...
5 % 47,908 7,812,827 Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Montgomery, AL...Newport News, VA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141123 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 37,037 2,579,037 Tallahassee, FL...Albany, GA...Dothan, AL...Pensacola, FL...Valdosta, GA...
   SPC AC 231629

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1029 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

   VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE NE
   GULF COAST TO THE ERN CAROLINAS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL AL TO PARTS OF THE
   CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
   TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST
   STATES. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST
   THROUGH PARTS OF GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO TONIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LA THIS MORNING WILL EJECT RAPIDLY NEWD
   TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY TONIGHT...AS AN UPSTREAM JET STREAK
   OVER NM TRANSLATES EWD TO THE MID SOUTH.  A SURFACE CYCLONE
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE NM JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM THE KS/OK
   BORDER TO MO TODAY...AND THEN NEWD TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
   BY EARLY MONDAY...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EWD FROM THE WRN
   PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY.

   ...NE GULF COAST AREA TODAY...
   IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A MARITIME TROPICAL
   AIR MASS IS SPREADING NWD TO NEAR THE NE GULF COAST.  SURFACE-BASED
   BUOYANCY WILL SPREAD INLAND WITH THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ZONE OF ASCENT WITH THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL
   SPREAD AWAY FROM THE NE GULF COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THROUGH ABOUT
   21-00Z...THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW
   ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REMNANT COLD
   POOL FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW/N CENTRAL GULF OF
   MEXICO...AND IN THE WAA REGIME ACROSS SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE/SW GA. 
   OBSERVED HODOGRAPHS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR HAVE TRENDED TO MORE
   UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITH MIDLEVEL FLOW AOA 50 KT...WHICH SUPPORTS
   THE RISK FOR A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO THIS
   AFTERNOON.

   ...SE GA TO THE ERN CAROLINAS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
   A COOL CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY ERODE ACROSS GA/CAROLINAS
   TODAY AND BE REPLACED BY A MODIFYING SW ATLANTIC AIR MASS LATE TODAY
   INTO TONIGHT.  THIS WARMING/MOISTENING WILL OCCUR WITHIN A STRONG
   WAA REGIME WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...SUCH THAT ROTATING STORMS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY DEVELOPS
   INLAND.  THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A
   TORNADO WILL BE TONIGHT ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS...LIKELY WITH
   STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN ONE OR MORE CONFLUENCE BANDS EMANATING FROM
   THE GULF STREAM.

   ..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 11/23/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z