Nov 25, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Nov 25 16:21:29 UTC 2014 (20141125 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141125 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141125 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 21,556 8,305,192 Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Clearwater, FL...Spring Hill, FL...
MARGINAL 15,515 3,485,570 Jacksonville, FL...Cape Coral, FL...Gainesville, FL...Port St. Lucie, FL...Palm Bay, FL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141125 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 24,728 8,769,112 Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Gainesville, FL...Clearwater, FL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141125 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 21,457 8,298,885 Tampa, FL...Orlando, FL...Spring Hill, FL...Lakeland, FL...Brandon, FL...
5 % 15,606 3,492,203 Jacksonville, FL...Cape Coral, FL...Gainesville, FL...Port St. Lucie, FL...Wellington, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141125 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 251621

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1021 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

   VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL FL THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF N AND S FL
   ADJACENT TO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
   PENINSULA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY HAZARD.

   ...CENTRAL FL THROUGH TONIGHT...
   A STALLED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/N FL WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS
   EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE NE GULF LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 
   THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY NEWD TO JUST OFF THE CAROLINAS BY
   26/12Z...AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER S TX ACCELERATES
   ENEWD.  RICH MOISTURE IS PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL/S FL WITH BOUNDARY
   LAYER DEWPOINTS UP TO THE MID 70S AND PW VALUES AOA 2 INCHES. 
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP...BUT SOME SURFACE HEATING S OF
   THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/BUOYANCY GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL FL WILL
   HELP BOOST AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES TO NEAR 1500 J/KG.  

   THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT/MODERATE BUOYANCY AND WEAK ASCENT WILL SUPPORT
   ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
   FL...AND TONIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS THE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE NE
   OF FL.  DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR
   ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS UNLIKELY TO
   INCREASE MUCH THROUGH TONIGHT GIVEN THE PRIMARY CYCLOGENESIS AND
   LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE EXPECTED OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST. 
   ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO WILL BE THE MAIN
   SEVERE WEATHER RISKS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

   ..THOMPSON/GLEASON.. 11/25/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z