Dec 17, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Dec 17 16:25:06 UTC 2014 (20141217 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141217 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141217 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141217 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141217 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141217 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 171625

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1025 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

   VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW
   MEXICO THROUGH THIS EVENING.

   ...SOUTHERN PLAINS
   SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
   STATES.  SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
   TROUGH ARE RESULTING IN A RATHER LARGE AREA OF DESTABILIZATION AND
   INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW OCCURRING OVER NORTH TX AND THE TX
   PANHANDLE.  THIS CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
   PARTS OF OK AND EVENTUALLY INTO AR THIS EVENING.  LIMITED CAPE
   VALUES WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE STORMS.

   ...AZ/NM...
   IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING
   INTO SOUTHERN CA.  LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF
   SOUTHERN AZ/NM.  

   ELSEWHERE...STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY TODAY.

   ..HART/GLEASON.. 12/17/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z