Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Shreveport, LA...Tyler, TX...Longview, TX...Bossier City, LA...Marshall, TX...
SPC AC 271557
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0957 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017
Valid 271630Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHWEST AR...AND NORTHWEST LA...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE ARKLATEX REGION AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
A few severe storms will be possible today over parts of Texas and
northwest Louisiana. Other strong storms will affect portions of
the Arklatex region and Lower Mississippi Valley.
Satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough axis extending from
western KY southwestward into central TX. Lift ahead of this trough
has resulted in a few showers and thunderstorms to develop over
central TX. The air mass ahead of the storms is moist and
moderately unstable, with afternoon MLCAPE values expected to range
from 1000-2000 J/kg. Relatively steep mid level lapse rates and
favorable deep-layer shear values suggest the risk of discrete
supercells capable of large hail. A remnant surface boundary
extends from northeast TX into central LA. Enhanced shear in
vicinity of this boundary causes some concern for an isolated
tornado or two later today if a storm moves into this zone.
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible farther east along the
boundary into southern LA and southern MS. Weaker thermodynamic and
wind parameters suggest only a marginal risk of severe storms in
this area, but an isolated severe hail or wind report cannot be
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z