Jul 30, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jul 30 16:12:00 UTC 2014 (20140730 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140730 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140730 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140730 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 20,489 692,154 Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Ardmore, OK...Denison, TX...Duncan, OK...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140730 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 31,328 913,497 Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Sherman, TX...Ardmore, OK...Denison, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140730 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 31,861 978,422 Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Sherman, TX...Ardmore, OK...Denison, TX...
   SPC AC 301612

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1112 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

   VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
   NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

   ...OK/TX...
   WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
   SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS HAS RESULTED IN
   WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF KS/OK AND PARTS OF
   NORTH TX.  AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY /EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT/ LIES ALONG THE
   SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD OVER NORTH TX.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL
   LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
   AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS.  MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT
   STORMS FORM OVER THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND RIDE DOWN THE BOUNDARY
   INTO WESTERN NORTH TX THIS EVENING.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
   WEAK...AND OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC SETUP IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE
   FOR SEVERE STORMS.  HOWEVER...VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND 40-50
   KNOTS OF NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN
   ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CAPABLE OF HAIL OR GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.

   ..HART/MOSIER.. 07/30/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z