Feb 26, 2015 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Feb 26 16:23:55 UTC 2015 (20150226 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150226 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150226 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150226 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150226 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150226 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 261623

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1023 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

   VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

   ...SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
   16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM DECAYED EARLY
   MORNING CONVECTION NEAR FORT MYERS TO VERO BEACH. FILTERED
   INSOLATION TO THE SOUTH WILL SUPPORT GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION WITHIN
   A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEST LIFT BETWEEN THE OUTFLOW AND
   UPSTREAM COLD FRONT COULD YIELD A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...A
   SCENARIO BROADLY SUPPORTED BY MORNING CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE.
   WITH NEUTRAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT CHANGE AND WEAKENING KINEMATIC
   FIELDS...PROSPECTS FOR SUSTAINING ORGANIZED STORMS APPEAR LOW.

   ..GRAMS/HART/MOSIER.. 02/26/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z