Apr 15, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Apr 15 16:25:38 UTC 2014 (20140415 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140415 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140415 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140415 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140415 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140415 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 13,418 7,086,706 Orlando, FL...
   SPC AC 151621

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1121 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

   VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF N FL....

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS NORTH
   FLORIDA.  ISOLATED GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS
   AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

   ...NORTH FL...
   A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
   TODAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD OFF THE COAST.  SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTH FL. 
   THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME
   INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE.  AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE
   INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH 40+ KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...WILL
   PROMOTE SOME RISK OF INTENSE CELLS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS.

   ...VA/CAROLINAS...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM
   SOUTHEAST VA INTO THE CAROLINAS.  THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
   OFFSHORE...WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY VEERED LOW
   LEVEL WINDS IN THEIR WAKE.  MODELS DIFFER ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
   RE-DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT LATER TODAY. 
   HOWEVER...AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL
   REMAIN OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.  THEREFORE HAVE
   MAINTAINED LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE REGION.

   ..HART/MOSIER.. 04/15/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z