Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 201639
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018
Valid 201630Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
EAST-CENTRAL NM AND WEST TX...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
Severe hail and gusts are possible today from thunderstorms over
portions of the southern High Plains, mainly mid-afternoon into
...Southern High Plains...
A deep upper low is progressing eastward across the southern
Rockies, and will affect the southern High Plains this afternoon and
evening. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies over
eastern NM and West TX, where southeasterly surface winds will
slowly transport moisture into region. Dewpoints are only in the
30s to lower 40s F now, but should climb to near 50F by late
afternoon with a narrow corridor of MUCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg.
Present indications are that thunderstorms will form as the leading
edge of large-scale forcing arrives from the west. Steep mid level
lapse rates and sufficient CAPE will support a few strong updrafts
capable of hail. Vertical shear profiles are also forecast to be
quite strong, supportive of rotating cells capable of gusty winds or
a brief tornado. The threat of severe storms appears rather focused
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z