Sep 26, 2016 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Sep 26 15:43:46 UTC 2016 (20160926 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160926 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160926 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 28,298 2,156,537 Charleston, WV...Huntington, WV...Blacksburg, VA...Parkersburg, WV...Morgantown, WV...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160926 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160926 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 29,209 2,263,920 Charleston, WV...Parkersburg, WV...Morgantown, WV...Fairmont, WV...Beckley, WV...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160926 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 261543

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1043 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

   VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WV/PA/VA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
   WEST VIRGINIA...WESTERN VIRGINIA...AND SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

   A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
   REGION TODAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE OH
   VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
   WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GULF
   COAST INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY AND
   TONIGHT.  IN GENERAL...THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR ANY
   ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES AND POCKETS OF
   CLOUDS.  IT APPEARS THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE A STRONG STORM OR
   TWO IS OVER PARTS OF WV AND ADJACENT STATES...WHERE THE SOUTHERN
   FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES OVERLAPS WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE VALUES
   FOR A LOW RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  OTHERWISE...NO
   ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

   ..HART.. 09/26/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z