Apr 23, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Apr 23 16:30:37 UTC 2014 (20140423 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140423 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140423 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140423 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140423 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140423 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 157,477 4,700,314 Oklahoma City, OK...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Abilene, TX...Norman, OK...
   SPC AC 231627

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1127 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

   VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL
   PLNS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE
   THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES
   ALSO POSSIBLE.

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   PROGRESSIVE/MODERATELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS
   PERIOD...WITH GRT BASIN TROUGH THE MAIN FACTOR AFFECTING SVR WEATHER
   POTENTIAL INTO THU. THE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE E TO THE HIGH PLNS BY
   12Z THU AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE REACHES THE LWR OH VLY.

   WITHIN THE TROUGH...MAIN SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW ENTERING THE LWR CO
   VLY SHOULD PIVOT E TO THE AZ-NM BORDER THIS EVE AND INTO W TX EARLY
   THU. AT THE SAME TIME...WEAKER DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE OVER NM SHOULD
   LIFT NE ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS TODAY AND INTO THE MID MO VLY
   EARLY THU. IN THE NRN PART OF THE TROUGH...DISTURBANCE NOW OVER WY
   WILL TRACK NE INTO ND BY EVE...ADVANCING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
   ESEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS. FARTHER S...LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE
   SEGMENTS SHOULD MIX E INTO WRN PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND SRN PLNS THIS
   AFTN...BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT TNGT/EARLY THU.

   BOTH THE CNTRL PLNS COLD FRONT AND THE DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH SEGMENTS
   FARTHER S WILL PROMOTE STRONG TO SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT...BEGINNING
   THIS AFTN AND CONTINUING INTO TNGT.

   ...CNTRL PLNS COLD FRONT THIS AFTN/EVE...
   TSTMS SHOULD FORM ALONG COLD FRONT FROM S CNTRL/SE SD SWWD INTO NW
   KS AS THE BOUNDARY ACCELERATES ESEWD. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
   THAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...WITH PW AROUND 1 INCH
   AND AVERAGE SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 F. LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
   WILL...HOWEVER...BE FAIRLY STEEP...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE ON THE
   ORDER OF 500 J/KG IN NERN NEB TO ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN NW KS. DEEP
   SHEAR WILL VARY ACROSS THE REGION...RANGING FROM 40 KT WSWLY IN KS
   TO 50 KT SSWLY IN NRN NEB.

   OVERALL SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED SUSTAINED
   STORMS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND AND HAIL AS NRN STREAM
   IMPULSE GLANCES REGION AND WEAKER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
   SW. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MERGE INTO AN ESE-MOVING MCS IN SRN NEB/NRN
   KS BY EARLY TNGT. A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DMGG WIND THREAT MAY
   PERSIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH EMBEDDED FORWARD-PROPAGATING
   SEGMENTS/SMALL BOWS THROUGH EARLY THU.

   ...CNTRL/SRN PLNS LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...
   CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD UPR IMPULSE SHOULD CLEAR REGION ALONG
   LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE SEGMENTS OVER WRN PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN
   PLNS BY EARLY AFTN...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL HEATING. AT THE SAME
   TIME...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE
   THROUGH ADVECTION. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPR 50S TO
   AROUND 60 OVER W TX...WITH SOMEWHAT LWR VALUES EXTENDING NWD INTO
   WRN KS. COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT MUCAPE TO
   RANGE FROM 1000 J/KG IN KS TO 2000 J/KG IN TX.

   SFC HEATING AND HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
   LARGE-SCALE TROUGH SHOULD FOSTER SCTD STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG  LEE
   TROUGH/DRY LINE SEGMENTS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AND CONTINUING
   INTO TNGT FROM WRN KS TO W CNTRL TX. MORE WDLY SCTD ACTIVITY MAY
   EXTEND S TO THE TX BIG BEND. COUPLED WITH 40-45 KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR
   AND STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...SOME POSSIBLY VERY LARGE...AND LOCALLY
   DMGG WIND. A RISK FOR TORNADOES ALSO MAY DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY THIS
   EVE/EARLY TNGT OVER NW TX/SW OK...AS NOCTURNAL AND DYNAMIC
   STRENGTHENING OF SLY LLJ ENLARGES HODOGRAPHS. THIS WINDOW OF
   OPPORTUNITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TNGT AS THE STORMS MERGE INTO
   SHORT LINE/CLUSTERS...ALTHOUGH A LIMITED RISK FOR SVR WIND/HAIL MAY
   PERSIST NEAR THE RED RVR THROUGH EARLY THU.

   ..CORFIDI/COHEN.. 04/23/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z