Apr 20, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Apr 20 16:34:34 UTC 2014 (20140420 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140420 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140420 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140420 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140420 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140420 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 44,444 1,005,728 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Snyder, TX...
   SPC AC 201631

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1131 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

   VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WRN AND NW AND SW
   OK...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR FROM
   THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS ACROSS THE CAPROCK AREA TO NORTHWEST TEXAS
   AND PERHAPS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   EARLY EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODEST...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
   CONUS THROUGH MON...DOWNSTREAM FROM BROAD/FAIRLY DEEP LOW OVER THE
   NE PACIFIC. IN THE SRN BRANCH...TROUGH NOW OVER ERN NM SHOULD MOVE
   ENE TO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE THIS EVE BEFORE CONTINUING ENE TO ERN
   KS/OK EARLY MON...WITH AN INCREASING POSITIVE TILT. WITHIN THE
   TROUGH...LEAD IMPULSE OVER WRN OK ATTM SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT PIVOTS
   NNE INTO ERN KS/WRN MO WHILE UPSTREAM VORT LOBE NOW OVER ERN NM/FAR
   W TX TURNS NE TOWARD CNTRL PORTIONS OF OK/N TX. ELSEWHERE...A
   STRONGER TROUGH IN THE NRN BRANCH WILL MOVE FROM CNTRL MT TO ERN
   ND/NRN MN BY 12Z MON.

   FEATURES WILL REMAIN WEAK AT LWR LVLS. A LOW SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
   STNRY OVER SE CO/SW KS TODAY...WHILE A NEW CIRCULATION CENTER
   EVOLVES ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE OVER E CNTRL NM/W CNTRL TX. THIS
   LOW SHOULD EDGE E/NE INTO NW TX EARLY MON. FARTHER N...WEAK NRN
   STREAM FRONT STALLED OVER THE CNTRL PLNS SHOULD REDEVELOP NWD THIS
   AFTN...BEFORE RESUMING A SEWD ADVANCE TNGT/EARLY MON IN WAKE OF
   MT/ND UPR IMPULSE. 

   LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME DIURNAL STORMS OVER
   PARTS OF WRN AND NW TX LATER TODAY...WHERE THE PRESENCE OF ADEQUATE
   VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST AN ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR
   SVR HAIL/WIND. OTHERWISE...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SVR TSTMS APPEARS LOW.


   ...SRN PLNS TODAY THROUGH EARLY TNGT...
   SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT APPRECIABLE SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR TODAY
   INVOF LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE SEGMENTS EXTENDING SSW FROM SW KS SFC LOW
   INTO FAR ERN NM/W TX...IN WAKE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION NOW COVERING
   MUCH OF OK AND NW TX. THE LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE SEGMENTS...AND
   DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES ON THE SW SIDE OF THE ELEVATED CONVECTION
   AREA...SHOULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR LOW-LVL UPLIFT/STORM
   DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTN. UPLIFT AHEAD OF NM VORT LOBE WILL
   FURTHER ASSIST DEVELOPMENT.

   POSITIVE-TILT OF ERN NM TROUGH WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST /40-50 KT/
   DEEP SHEAR DISPLACED FARTHER S AND E ACROSS TX. SUFFICIENT /30-40
   KT/ WSWLY DEEP SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT...HOWEVER...TO PROMOTE STORM
   ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR COUPLE SUPERCELLS
   CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS OVER WRN AND NW TX. AND...WHILE REGION
   WILL REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF PW PLUME EXTENDING N/NE ACROSS CNTRL
   AND E TX...AMPLE MOISTURE PW AROUND 1 INCH/ SHOULD EXIST TO BOOST
   MLCAPE INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE GIVEN RELATIVELY COOL 500 MB
   TEMPERATURES /AROUND MINUS 13 C/. THIS ACTIVITY MAY MERGE INTO A
   SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO THIS EVE...WITH THE CLUSTERS MOVING GENERALLY E
   BEFORE WEAKENING OVER NW OR N CNTRL TX LATER TNGT.

   UPSLOPE-INDUCED STRATUS AND WARMER MID-LVL TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP
   STORM DEVELOPMENT MORE LIMITED WITH SWD EXTENT FROM THE SLIGHT RISK
   AREA...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO /INCLUDING A SUPERCELL/ COULD
   OCCUR LATE THIS AFTN OVER OR JUST E OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.

   ..CORFIDI/BUNTING.. 04/20/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z