Feb 27, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Feb 27 15:57:27 UTC 2017 (20170227 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170227 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170227 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 34,540 8,018,819 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
MARGINAL 78,601 4,497,312 Baton Rouge, LA...Fort Smith, AR...Gulfport, MS...Fayetteville, AR...Springdale, AR...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170227 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 10,221 828,996 Tyler, TX...Longview, TX...Marshall, TX...Sulphur Springs, TX...Mount Pleasant, TX...
2 % 14,691 4,528,377 Dallas, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...Shreveport, LA...Irving, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170227 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 15,467 1,305,605 Shreveport, LA...Tyler, TX...Longview, TX...Bossier City, LA...Marshall, TX...
5 % 53,184 9,014,816 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Baton Rouge, LA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170227 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 35,305 8,078,524 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
5 % 75,987 4,285,762 Baton Rouge, LA...Fort Smith, AR...Gulfport, MS...Fayetteville, AR...Springdale, AR...
   SPC AC 271557

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0957 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

   Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHWEST AR...AND NORTHWEST LA...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   THE ARKLATEX REGION AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few severe storms will be possible today over parts of Texas and
   northwest Louisiana.  Other strong storms will affect portions of
   the Arklatex region and Lower Mississippi Valley.

   ...TX/LA...
   Satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough axis extending from
   western KY southwestward into central TX.  Lift ahead of this trough
   has resulted in a few showers and thunderstorms to develop over
   central TX.  The air mass ahead of the storms is moist and
   moderately unstable, with afternoon MLCAPE values expected to range
   from 1000-2000 J/kg.  Relatively steep mid level lapse rates and
   favorable deep-layer shear values suggest the risk of discrete
   supercells capable of large hail.  A remnant surface boundary
   extends from northeast TX into central LA.  Enhanced shear in
   vicinity of this boundary causes some concern for an isolated
   tornado or two later today if a storm moves into this zone.

   ...LA/MS...
   Scattered thunderstorms will be possible farther east along the
   boundary into southern LA and southern MS.  Weaker thermodynamic and
   wind parameters suggest only a marginal risk of severe storms in
   this area, but an isolated severe hail or wind report cannot be
   ruled out.

   ..Hart/Leitman.. 02/27/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z