Oct 31, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Oct 31 16:00:29 UTC 2014 (20141031 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141031 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141031 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141031 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141031 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141031 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 311600

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1100 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

   VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FLANKED BY A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
   THIRD OF THE U.S. AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/U.S. WEST
   COAST. AS THIS EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE...THE UPPER
   RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE E OVER THE PLAINS BY 12Z/SAT. A MEAN
   TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...WITH A COUPLE OF
   EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA LEADING TO A DEEPENING OF THIS SYSTEM
   THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. 

   WHILE COLD/DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
   CONUS...AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
   ACROSS PARTS OF CA...HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT
   ACCOMPANYING THE EWD PROGRESSING TROUGH AND MOIST...OROGRAPHIC
   ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
   THE VICINITY OF THE SRN ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS REGION AS A LEAD
   SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EJECTS EWD AHEAD OF THE MAIN PACIFIC TROUGH.
   ELSEWHERE...A FEW LAKE EFFECT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
   SRN LAKE MICHIGAN AN ADJACENT AREAS JUST DOWNSTREAM AS A STRONG VORT
   MAX PIVOTS SEWD OVER THIS REGION. THE RESULTING STRONG HEIGHT FALLS
   AND COOLING TEMPERATURES/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ATOP FAVORABLE
   TRAJECTORIES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER LAKE WATERS MAY PRODUCE A
   FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN ADDITION TO SOME SLEET/SNOW. LATER TODAY
   INTO TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF
   THE SRN APPALACHIANS AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ROTATES
   THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH.

   ..LEITMAN.. 10/31/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z