Sep 4, 2015 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Sep 4 16:21:20 UTC 2015 (20150904 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150904 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150904 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 31,874 375,619 Fargo, ND...Grand Forks, ND...West Fargo, ND...West Fargo, MN...Jamestown, ND...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150904 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 31,908 328,499 Grand Forks, ND...West Fargo, ND...West Fargo, MN...Jamestown, ND...Devils Lake, ND...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150904 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 31,847 330,455 Grand Forks, ND...West Fargo, ND...West Fargo, MN...Jamestown, ND...Devils Lake, ND...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150904 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 31,547 341,584 Fargo, ND...Grand Forks, ND...West Fargo, ND...West Fargo, MN...Jamestown, ND...
   SPC AC 041621

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1121 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

   VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ND/MN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR FROM
   THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND PARTS OF MINNESOTA TODAY.

   SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SD.  THIS
   FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING.  WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING
   NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND
   PRECIPITATION LIMITING DESTABILIZATION.  RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND
   SEVERAL CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSIENT STRONG
   STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS OR A BRIEF
   TORNADO.  HOWEVER...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER IS
   MARGINAL.

   ..HART/LEITMAN.. 09/04/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z