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    Day 2 Outlook >
Nov 16, 2017 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Nov 16 19:30:49 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20171116 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20171116 2000Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 161930

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0130 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

   Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms are not expected across the contiguous United States
   today.

   Little change was made to the previous outlook, as thunderstorm
   chances across the Lower 48 remain minimal.

   ..Jewell.. 11/16/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017/

   ...Synopsis...
   Shortwave trough currently moving through western PA/NY will
   continue eastward through the early afternoon before pivoting
   northeastward across southern New England as it matures and becomes
   more vertically stacked with a deepening surface low currently
   centered just south of Long Island. As this surface low deepens,
   strengthening low/mid-level flow will contribute to strong warm-air
   advection and resulting low-level frontogenesis across southern New
   England. This mesoscale forcing for ascent coupled with increased
   large-scale forcing for ascent resulting from the approaching
   shortwave (currently evidenced by the line of low-topped convection
   moving across central Long Island/CT) will result in a few updrafts
   deep enough to support lightning this afternoon.

   Farther west, mid-level temperatures will continue to cool
   throughout the day as an upper trough progresses through the region.
   Resultant steep lapse rates and modest instability will support
   occasional lightning later this afternoon and evening within the
   shallow, multi-cellular convection traversing the region. 

   A few lightning strikes are also possible within the shallow
   convection occurring amidst the moist return flow across southeast
   TX.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
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Page last modified: November 16, 2017
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