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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 2, 2015 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jul 2 19:47:49 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150702 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150702 2000Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 021947

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0247 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2015

   VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
   SOUTHEAST STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
   PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
   SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS.

   ...20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE...
   GIVEN AN UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS AND TENDENCY FOR STORM
   CLUSTERING AMID STRENGTHENING 2-4KM AGL WESTERLY
   WINDS...MARGINAL/SLIGHT-RELATED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED AND
   EXPANDED EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF SC/NC/GA/NORTHERN FL FOR MAINLY A
   DAMAGING WIND RISK THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS OK/SOUTHERN KS INTO AR/SOUTHERN MO LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
   PLAINS/OZARKS...SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1282.

   ..GUYER.. 07/02/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT THU JUL 02 2015/

   ...KY/TN...
   A BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES EXTENDS ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS TODAY.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
   SUGGESTS RELATIVELY RAPID CLEARING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
   DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF KY/TN AFFECTED BY
   OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.  THEREFORE HAVE SHIFTED SLGT RISK AREA BACK
   INTO THIS REGION FOR THE POTENTIAL OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGER
   CELLS.

   ...KS/OK...
   ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
   INTENSIFYING LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
   PARTS OF SOUTHERN KS...SPREADING INTO OK THIS EVENING.  DAMAGING
   WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT.

   ...NC/VA...
   STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
   REGION AND CAROLINAS...WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
   DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON.  SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION AROUND PEAK
   HEATING...WITH SUFFICIENT WINDS ALOFT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
   ORGANIZATION.  SHORT-TERM TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
   INCLUSION INTO SLGT RISK AT 20Z.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
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Page last modified: July 02, 2015
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