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    Day 2 Outlook >
Dec 2, 2016 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Dec 2 19:39:00 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20161202 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20161202 2000Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 021939

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0139 PM CST FRI DEC 02 2016

   VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
   TEXAS....

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
   TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

   ...DISCUSSION...

   NO CHANGES TO 1630Z.

   ..DARROW.. 12/02/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1016 AM CST FRI DEC 02 2016/

   ...SOUTH TEXAS...
   THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A BROAD AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER
   MOST OF THE CONUS...WHILE A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
   INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES.  MID LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK AND
   INCREASE OVER TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
   APPROACHES...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ALSO STRENGTHENING. 
   THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVER PARTS OF
   SOUTH AND WEST TEXAS.  MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTING
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   REGION - MAINLY AFTER DARK.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
   SUFFICIENTLY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND VERTICAL SHEAR TO POSE
   A RISK OF HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY
   WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.  THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN MARGINAL.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
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Page last modified: December 02, 2016
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