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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jun 28, 2016 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jun 28 21:39:10 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160628 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160628 2000Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 282139

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0439 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

   VALID 282136Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NORTHEAST...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN HIGH PLAINS TO CNTRL
   PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS NORTHEAST...

   AMENDED FOR EXPANSION OF SLIGHT RISK INTO WESTERN OK

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
   EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
   INITIALLY...SOME OF THESE MAY PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL THROUGH EARLY
   EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
   EVENING AS STORMS LIKELY DEVELOP INTO A SOUTHEAST-MOVING CLUSTER.

   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   MAIN CHANGES THIS OUTLOOK ARE TO ADD SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WIND
   PROBABILITIES AND MAKE A NORTHWARD EXPANSION TO THE ENHANCED SLIGHT
   RISK. WHILE THE 12Z WRF-NSSL SIMULATED A POTENTIAL DERECHO SCENARIO
   THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CONCERNS DO EXIST OVER THE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT...SUCH THAT AN UPGRADE TO
   MODERATE RISK DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED THIS OUTLOOK. IN THE WAKE OF
   A DECAYING CLUSTER OVER CENTRAL KS...A POCKET OF DRIER SURFACE DEW
   POINTS IS EVIDENT TO THE NORTH OF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW ACROSS
   WEST-CENTRAL KS. IN ADDITION...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS /ESPECIALLY
   THE NAM/ WERE TOO MOIST WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE
   18Z RAPID CITY RAOB. THE NET EFFECT IS THAT AVAILABLE BUOYANCY
   SHOULD REMAIN MORE MODERATE ACROSS THE REGION WITH RELATIVELY LARGE
   SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. A CORRIDOR OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER SURFACE
   DEW POINTS IS OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB JUST AHEAD OF
   RECENTLY DECAYED CONVECTION. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE EVENING MCS
   DEVELOPING MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST THAN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

   ...NORTHEAST...
   FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS STATUS QUO EXCEPT FOR AN EXPANSION OF
   SLIGHT RISK SOUTH INTO MD AND DC METRO AREA. STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS
   OCCURRED AS FAR SOUTH AS EXTREME NORTHERN VA AND WITH WARMER SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO FARTHER NORTH...A CLUSTER OF DAMAGING WINDS
   APPEARS PLAUSIBLE.

   ..GRAMS.. 06/28/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

   ...HIGH PLAINS...
   A LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
   STATES...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN
   ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
   MAINTAINING 50S AND LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS FROM EASTERN WY/CO INTO
   PARTS OF SD/NEB/KS...WHERE AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 3000
   J/KG ARE EXPECTED.  DISCRETE FORCING MECHANISMS ARE HARD TO FIND ON
   RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS...BUT OVERNIGHT AND 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS
   CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF INTENSE STORMS LATER
   TODAY OVER EASTERN WY...SPREADING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF
   CO/SD/NEB/KS DURING THE EVENING.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP
   MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS
   INITIALLY...POSING A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  BY
   EARLY EVENING...MULTIPLE 12Z CAM SOLUTIONS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO
   LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE.  THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF DAMAGING
   WINDS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN NEB...FAR NORTHEAST CO...AND NORTHWEST
   KS DURING THE EVENING.  HAVE THEREFORE UPGRADED THIS AREA TO AN
   ENHANCED RISK CATEGORY.  STORMS MAY SPREAD AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS
   SOUTHWEST KS TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING.

   ...PA/NY/VT...
   A RELATIVELY WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING
   ACROSS SOUTHWEST ONTARIO INTO WESTERN NY.  LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
   IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LOW CLOUDS ARE CLEARING AHEAD OF THE
   TROUGH...FROM EAST-CENTRAL PA NORTHWARD INTO MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
   VT.  DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S IN THIS CORRIDOR WILL YIELD AFTERNOON
   MLCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 2000 J/KG.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ONLY MINIMALLY FAVORABLE FOR
   ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS.  HOWEVER...MODERATE CAPE VALUES AND STRONG
   WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
   GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN THE STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EARLY EVENING.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
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