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    Day 2 Outlook >
Aug 2, 2015 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Aug 2 19:57:34 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150802 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150802 2000Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 021957

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0257 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

   VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF WI AND LOWER
   MI...AS WELL AS FAR NRN IL AND IND...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN IA INTO NRN OH AND
   MI...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEB NEWD INTO THE GREAT
   LAKES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
   EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY ACROSS IOWA
   INTO NEBRASKA.

   ...WI...LOWER MI...NRN IL AND INDIANA...
   THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS CURRENTLY EVOLVING ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN
   WI INTO NRN MI WITH A MIXTURE OF CELLS AND A LARGER-SCALE BOW
   DEVELOPING. THE LEADING BOW NOW OVER NRN LAKE MI SHOULD CONTINUE
   RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS MI...AND BACK-BUILD SWWD INTO ERN WI.
   HERE...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO LIKELY FOR A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE
   EVENTUAL MERGERS OCCUR. PRIOR TO THE MERGERS...VERY LARGE HAIL AND
   BRIEF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BECOME
   DAMAGING WINDS. STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELDS SUGGESTS A FEW
   SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

   FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 1586 AND 1587.

   ..JEWELL.. 08/02/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015/

   ...GREAT LAKES REGION...
   CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
   MADE TO OUTLOOK.

   WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
   SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO INTO MN.  STRONG
   LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO INITIATE AND ORGANIZE
   THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED /MOSTLY ELEVATED/
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN WI/UPPER MI INTO
   NORTHERN LOWER MI.  THESE STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
   A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL
   HEATING OCCURS. LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT FOR NOW...BUT STORMS
   WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SURFACE-BASED WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO.

   BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO ONE OR
   MORE LINEAR MCS/S THAT WILL AFFECT MUCH OF WI AND LOWER MI BEFORE
   POTENTIALLY SPREADING INTO NORTHERN IL/IND/OH TONIGHT.  MODEL
   SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
   RISK...BUT WILL MAINTAIN POSITION OF ENH RISK AREA FOR NOW AND
   RE-EVALUATE IN LATER UPDATES.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
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Page last modified: August 02, 2015
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