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Feb 18, 2017 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Feb 18 19:34:59 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170218 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170218 2000Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 181934

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0134 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

   Valid 182000Z - 191200Z


   While severe thunderstorms are not expected, isolated thunderstorms
   will be possible in portions of the Southeast States as well as the
   Desert Southwest.

   ...20Z Update...
   Observational trends over the past few hours have shown a general
   decrease in intensity with the line of storms approaching the
   west-central FL peninsula. Continued displacement from the stronger
   forcing for ascent and meager instability suggest this trend will
   continue. Even so, some isolated lightning is still possible across
   portions of the central FL peninsula. Farther north, isolated to
   widely scattered thunderstorms remain possible across southern GA
   and northern FL late this afternoon and evening as another shortwave
   trough rounds the upper low centered over the middle MS valley. 

   Farther west, continued cooling aloft associated with the
   eastward-progression upper trough will contribute to modest
   destabilization with a few lightning strikes remaining possible. 

   Lastly, some isolated lightning is possible on the immediate central
   OR coast as the main frontal band associated with an approaching
   shortwave trough moves across the region.

   ..Mosier.. 02/18/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017/

   An upper low currently centered over the lower Mississippi River
   Valley/Mid-South region will continue generally eastward and reach
   the southern Appalachians this evening.  An ongoing quasi-linear
   convective cluster over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to
   move toward the western Florida peninsula today before likely
   weakening. While modest low-level moistening will continue to occur
   across parts of the peninsula, richer maritime air will generally
   remain confined to south Florida.  Cloud cover will otherwise likely
   persist over the peninsula much of the afternoon via the ongoing
   convection. While a strong storm or two could approach the western
   peninsula, organized severe storms appear unlikely, mainly given the
   limited moisture/buoyancy over inland areas.



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