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    Day 2 Outlook >
Apr 29, 2016 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Apr 29 19:44:56 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160429 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160429 2000Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 291944

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0244 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

   VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN TX...SRN
   OK...AND THE ARKLATEX...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX TO AL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION TO THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

   ...SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
   NUMEROUS AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE SRN
   PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT CENTERED OVER
   CNTRL AND NRN TX...SRN OK...AND INTO THE ARKLATEX. 

   AN EXTREMELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE E OF THE
   ADVANCING DRYLINE WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS SWWD FROM A LOW OVER SWRN
   OK ACROSS W CNTRL TX...AND S OF A WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SRN OK.
   18Z SOUNDING FROM FWD ALSO SHOWS A FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH FOR
   SUPERCELLS WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY.
   HAIL IS THE MOST LIKELY THREAT...WITH A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
   DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF STORM INTERACTION.

   TO THE N...A CLUSTER OF CELLS IS RAPIDLY EVOLVING OVER SWRN
   OK...CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW. THESE CELLS HAVE LARGELY BEEN N OF THE
   MAIN COLD FRONT...BUT HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF EWD PROPAGATION WHICH MAY
   MAINTAIN DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO THE SFC-BASED INFLOW. IN
   ADDITION...THETA-E ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER SRN INTO CNTRL OK AS
   WELL. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE
   CELLS...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. STORM MODE IS COMPLEX BUT A
   TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH CELLS MAINTAINING
   POSITION ALONG THE SW-NE ORIENTED BOUNDARY.

   ..JEWELL.. 04/29/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

   ...SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...
   A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NM THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT ENEWD
   OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND REACH THE I-35
   CORRIDOR IN OK/KS LATE TONIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL
   DEVELOP ENEWD FROM NW TX TO SW OK THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE
   NEWD INTO KS OVERNIGHT.  FARTHER E...A BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS BEEN
   REINFORCED BY OVERNIGHT/MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM OK INTO AR.
   S OF THE BOUNDARY...NEAR SEASONAL MAXIMUM BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
   PRESENT /LOW-MID 70S DEWPOINTS AND MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 15-19 G PER
   KG/.  THIS MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND SOME SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS...WILL SUPPORT STRONG
   BUOYANCY TODAY IN THE WARM SECTOR.

   DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS IN THE
   WARM SECTOR WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 45 KT.  A SUBTLE LEAD WAVE
   NOTED IN VWP DATA ACROSS W/NW TX IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL LIKELY
   HELP FOCUS NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WARM
   SECTOR NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN TX.  STRONG BUOYANCY...RICH
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH
   OF 150-200 M2 PER S2/ WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR TORNADOES...ISOLATED
   VERY LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS.  FARTHER N...THE
   BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY DRIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT INTO SRN OK...THOUGH
   CONTINUING ELEVATED CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
   LIMIT NWD PROGRESS OF THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL THE SURFACE CYCLONE
   MOVES FARTHER N BY TONIGHT.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER INVOF
   THE WARM FRONT...AND THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES
   WITH STORMS INTERACTING WITH THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW.  LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER
   FROM ABOUT I-35 EWD INTO SW AR.  

   THE SEVERE THREAT BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
   LOW INTO SW OK.  NWD PROGRESS OF THE WARM SECTOR IS A BIT
   UNCERTAIN...AND VWP/S ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHOW THE INFLUENCE OF
   THE LEAD WAVE ON WIND PROFILES WITH THE MIDLEVEL BACKING.  THERE IS
   SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT AMONG NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
   DETAILS OF BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS SW AND S CENTRAL OK
   THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO THE SPECIFIC EXPECTED STORM STRUCTURES ARE
   LIKEWISE UNCERTAIN.  WILL MAINTAIN PART OF ENH RISK INTO SW OK FOR
   SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WITH HAIL/WIND...AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF
   TORNADOES...SINCE RECENT MESONET OBS DO SUGGEST WARMING AND
   MOISTENING IS OCCURRING.

   FARTHER E IN AR...THE LARGE OVERNIGHT MCS PERSISTS WITH AN MCV OVER
   N CENTRAL AR...AND STRONGER CONVECTION ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   ACROSS SRN AR.  IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THIS OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN
   QUASI-STATIONARY OR EVEN DRIFT SWD/SEWD AS A RESULT ON CONTINUING
   OUTFLOW REINFORCEMENT BY CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  OTHER
   WARM SECTOR STORMS HAVE FORMED IN NW LA WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS...AND
   MORE SUCH DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO NE TX AND
   NW LA.  BUOYANCY/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE WILL FAVOR A HAIL RISK WITH
   ANY SUSTAINED STORMS...ALONG WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND A FEW
   TORNADOES.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
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