Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
May 31, 2016 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 31 19:56:48 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160531 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160531 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 311956

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0256 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

   VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
   AND ARKLATEX...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
   PLAINS...ARKLATEX...OZARKS...MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST
   STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
   SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS.  A FEW STRONG
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
   THE GULF COAST REGION.  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY
   THREATS.

   NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

   ..BROYLES.. 05/31/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   TWO-STREAM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LWR 48 THROUGH
   WED...WITH NRN STREAM WRN DAKOTAS LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY E/NE
   INTO SE MN...WHILE SRN BRANCH LOW NOW OVER NRN BAJA EDGES MORE
   SLOWLY ESE INTO NW SONORA. SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DAKOTAS
   SYSTEM WILL TRACK E ALONG THE ND-MB BORDER AND FURTHER OCCLUDE
   TODAY/TNGT AS TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES E ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY
   AND S/SE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
   LIKELY WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN
   PLNS. WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING SE ACROSS SE MN/ERN IA AND CNTRL IL
   ATTM SHOULD MOVE ONLY VERY SLOWLY EWD AS SFC RIDGE NOSES S ACROSS OH
   AND THE LWR GRT LKS.

   ...SRN PLNS/OZARKS TODAY...
   DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STRONG TO LOCALLY SVR TSTMS WILL PREVAIL OVER
   A LARGE PART OF THE S CNTRL U.S. WHERE SFC HEATING FURTHER
   DESTABILIZES MOIST/RELATIVELY WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ALONG/AHEAD
   OF COLD FRONT. LOW-LVL OUTFLOW AND CLOUD DEBRIS FROM STORM CLUSTERS
   OVER THE LAST 24-36 HRS HAS LEFT A VERY PATCHY PATTERN OF LOW-LVL
   MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION/SFC-BASED INSTABILITY.

   WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE LOW-MID 50S IN NM TO THE MID 70S
   IN S TX...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES AND EDGES
   OF PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER LIKELY WILL YIELD POCKETS OF AFTN SBCAPE
   AOA 3000 J/KG...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL...CNTRL...AND
   NE TX. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SE ACROSS ERN/SRN OK...AND
   DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY FARTHER SE ALONG THE RED RVR...MAY
   SUFFICIENTLY ENHANCE LOW-LVL UPLIFT TO SUPPORT A LOCALIZED MAXIMUM
   OF AFTN/EVE SVR WEATHER RISK /HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND/ FROM SE
   OK/SW AR SWWD INTO NE TX...WHERE 20+ KT WLY MID-LVL FLOW WITH SRN
   STREAM JET WILL SLIGHTLY ENHANCE DEEP SHEAR.

   FARTHER S...SOMEWHAT STRONGER WLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ATOP VERY RICH
   MOISTURE OVER S CNTRL TX...BUT GREATER CLOUD COVER MAY OFFSET
   DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. A NOCTURNAL...SE-MOVING STORM CLUSTER
   COULD...HOWEVER...ARISE OVER THE SRN HILL COUNTRY THIS EVE AS SLY
   LLJ DIURNALLY STRENGTHENS ABOVE SLIGHTLY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
   LEFT BY DAYTIME STORMS.

   ELY LOW-LVL FLOW MAY PERSIST FOR SOME TIME TODAY OVER NW TX AND NE
   NM...IN WAKE OF OK CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. WHILE THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT
   SHOULD FOSTER AFTN/EVE STORMS OVER THE REGION...SOMEWHAT REDUCED
   BUOYANCY AND DEEP SHEAR RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS SUGGESTS THAT SVR
   THREAT...WHILE NON-ZERO...WILL BE COMPARATIVELY LOW. SOMEWHAT
   GREATER DEEP SHEAR /AROUND 40 KT/ WILL PERSIST BENEATH SRN STREAM
   JET OVER SE NM/SW TX...BUT LINGERING CLOUDS AND ON-GOING SHOWERS
   WILL DELAY DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION.

   ...MID-UPR MS VLY TODAY...
   TSTMS SHOULD PERSIST AND POSSIBLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/STRENGTH NEAR
   WARM FRONT OVER PARTS OF WI/IL TODAY. STORMS ALSO MAY FORM WITH
   ADDITIONAL SFC HEATING ALONG COLD FRONT IN IA AND NRN MO. BELT OF
   25+ KT 700-500 MB SW FLOW ROUNDING BASE OF NRN STREAM UPR LOW WILL
   FOSTER ORGANIZATION OF STORMS INTO MULTICELL BANDS...AND LOW-LVL
   LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP PER 12Z DVN AND ILX RAOBS. BUT WEAK
   MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
   SUGGEST THAT OVERALL DURATION/INTENSITY OF ANY SVR THREAT
   /MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND/ WILL REMAIN LIMITED.

   ...LWR MS VLY TO NRN FL/SRN GA THIS AFTN...
   CLEAR MIDDAY SKIES AND UPLIFT ALONG WNW-ESE ORIENTED LOW-LVL
   CONFLUENCE ZONE/WEAK FRONT MAY SUPPORT SCTD AREA OF STRONG AFTN
   STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE ERN GULF CST STATES AND POSSIBLY SRN GA.
   JUXTAPOSED AXIS OF PW AOA 1.75 INCHES IN VERY WEAKLY SHEAR
   ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD WET MICROBURSTS.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 31, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities