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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jan 19, 2017 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 19 19:40:45 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170119 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170119 2000Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 191940

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0140 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

   Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN
   LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
   PANHANDLE...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
   SURROUNDING PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   An evolving cluster of thunderstorms may be accompanied by a risk
   for potentially damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two,
   particularly across southeastern Alabama and portions of the western
   Florida Panhandle by late this evening.

   ...20Z Outlook Update...
   Based on latest observational data and model output, potentially
   cool/stable near surface air may remain entrenched near/just south
   of the higher terrain of northern Georgia into northeastern Alabama.
   However, increasing insolation and low-level moistening appear to be
   contributing to at least weak boundary layer destabilization to the
   south, ahead of slowly strengthening thunderstorm activity on the
   leading edge of convective outflow.  This boundary has progressed
   into western Alabama/far southeastern Mississippi and Louisiana, and
   is expected to gradually advance eastward through early evening.

   Aided by strengthening large-scale ascent associated the lower/mid
   tropospheric warm advection, beneath increasingly difluent and
   divergent upper flow, the evolution of an intensifying and
   increasingly organized mesoscale convective system appears possible
   by early evening.  Latest model guidance, including the Rapid
   Refresh and ECMWF, suggests that a 850-700 mb speed maximum (40-60+
   kt) associated with this feature may develop inland across coastal
   areas, through southeastern Alabama, by 03-06Z.  It seems probable
   that this will be accompanied by the risk for potentially damaging
   surface gusts, which could continue into parts of west central and
   southwestern Georgia overnight.

   ..Kerr.. 01/19/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

   ...Portions of LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle...
   While considerable cloud cover persists over much of
   central/northern portions of MS into AL, modest
   moisture/destabilization could allow for a low-end isolated damaging
   wind and/or brief tornado risk through the afternoon/early evening.

   Farther south, a somewhat more focused severe risk may exist along
   the immediate Gulf Coast this afternoon into this evening, including
   parts of southeast Louisiana to far southern portions of MS/AL and
   the FL panhandle. While existing cloud cover and ongoing inland
   convection cast some uncertainty regarding the effective northward
   extent of appreciable destabilization inland, considerable mass
   response should occur in tandem with an amplifying upstream trough
   over the southern Plains to ARKLATEX. Accordingly, as gradual/modest
   destabilization occurs especially immediately near the coast,
   increasing forcing for ascent and strengthening deep-layer/low-level
   winds could support semi-organized storms modes near the coast later
   this afternoon into tonight. At least a localized damaging wind and
   a brief tornado threat will exist in these areas.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
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Page last modified: January 19, 2017
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