Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Aug 25, 2016 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Aug 25 20:02:38 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160825 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160825 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 252002

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0302 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

   VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MO ACROSS CENTRAL
   PARTS OF IL AND INDIANA...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM
   EXTREME SERN LOWER MI ACROSS PARTS OF NRN OH INTO WRN PA...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO
   WRN/NORTH CENTRAL OK AND EXTREME SRN KS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN
   HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS
   INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.

   NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. 
   SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL ZONE FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
   GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THE PRIMARY
   AREAS OF FOCUS  REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...FROM EASTERN MO INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
   WHERE A REMNANT MCV CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST...AND FROM PORTIONS
   OF KS/OK WEST INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.  RECENTLY ISSUED MESOSCALE
   CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1590 CONTAINS THE LATEST SHORT-TERM
   THINKING REGARDING CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE TX-OK REGION.  A
   FORTHCOMING MCD WILL ADDRESS ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS
   EASTERN MO EAST INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL IL.

   ..BUNTING.. 08/25/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016/

   ...DISCUSSION...
   THE LARGE SCALE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL UNDERGO MINOR CHANGES DURING
   THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
   AND A DOWNSTREAM LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
   ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC.  TO THE SOUTH...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
   THE SERN STATES AS A SERIES OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS ON THE SRN EDGE OF
   STRONGER SWLY WINDS ALOFT TRANSLATE NEWD/ENEWD FROM THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.
    IN ADDITION...AN MCV EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY OVER NWRN MO IS
   EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ENEWD INTO CENTRAL IL BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING.  

   THE LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
   LOWER MI ACROSS NRN MO AND SWWD INTO WRN TX IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
   DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING
   OCCURRING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY.  ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES
   HAVE GENERALLY BECOME LESS STEEP OWING TO AIR MASS MODIFICATION BY
   PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE STORMS...SURFACE DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE
   UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE WARM SECTOR REMAIN AND ARE EXPECTED TO
   CONTRIBUTE TO DIURNALLY INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF
   1500-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.  

   THREE PRIMARY AREAS OF SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL ARE EXPECTED THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...ERN MO ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF IL AND INDIANA...
   THIS REGION IS AHEAD OF THE MCV CURRENTLY OVER NWRN MO.  A BAND OF
   ASCENT IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE MCV WILL MOVE EWD INTO AN
   INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY PROVIDE A
   FOCUS FOR RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT.  AS THE CAP WEAKENS...
   CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM WITHIN A FAVORABLY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT /EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KT/ WHICH WILL ENHANCE STORM
   ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY.  STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS THEY
   SPREAD EWD INTO CENTRAL IL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY
   CONTINUE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING.

   ...LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM EXTREME SERN LOWER MI ACROSS PARTS OF NRN
   OH INTO WRN PA...
   CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE IS THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN LOWER MI OR NRN OH AND SPREAD INTO PARTS OF
   WRN PA BY THIS EVENING.  THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS ASSOCIATED WITH
   SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA AND A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK THAT ARE
   EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING. 

   CLOUDS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS NRN OH INTO SWRN NY AND WRN PA AND
   THIS SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.  STORMS
   ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK STARTING
   IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS GIVEN THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW AND 35-45 KT VERTICAL SHEAR
   OVER THE AREA.

   ...TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN/NORTH CENTRAL OK AND EXTREME SRN KS...  
   THE SWD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT OVER WRN TX IS LIKELY TO END
   SHORTLY WITH MODELS INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF AN ELY/SELY COMPONENT
   OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY BY LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON.  THINNING OF CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE IS NOW
   EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THIS WILL SUPPORT GRADUAL
   DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.  MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING CAM
   FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT INITIATING STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE TX
   PANHANDLE WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING/SPREADING EWD/NEWD THROUGH THE
   EVENING HOURS.  MODERATE SWLY WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ZONE OF
   30-40 KT VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
   DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: August 25, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities