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    Day 2 Outlook >
May 25, 2017 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu May 25 20:37:08 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170525 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170525 2000Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 252037

   Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0337 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

   Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST
   KANSAS...FAR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
   NEBRASKA...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
   ENHANCED RISK...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A LARGE PART
   OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
   THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of severe gusts are likely
   this afternoon and evening over parts of the central High Plains. 
   Other strong storms are possible across the Mid Atlantic Coast
   region.

   ...Discussion...
   The notable changes for this outlook update include:
   1) Upgrade to 30% wind probabilities over parts of the central High
   Plains.  Visible satellite and radar imagery show a linear cluster
   of strong/severe thunderstorms over northeastern CO near and north
   of a triple point.  Very steep lapse rates/evaporative cooling
   coupled with organized storms will lead to a concentrated area of
   severe gusts this afternoon into the early evening as the activity
   moves eastward along the KS/NE border vicinity.
   2) Removed low probabilities over south FL.

   ..Smith.. 05/25/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017/

   ...Synopsis...
   The elongated mid-level cold core, of large-scale upper troughing
   now encompassing most areas east of the Mississippi Valley, is in
   the process of pivoting northeastward across the southern Atlantic
   coast states.  As it continues northeastward, then northward, mostly
   off the Mid Atlantic coast through the remainder of the period, the
   mid Ohio Valley closed low appears likely to redevelop east
   northeastward into southern New England by 12Z Friday.  As it does,
   an associated occluded surface low should weaken across the
   mid/upper Ohio Valley, and the secondary surface low (now east
   southeast of the Washington D.C./Baltimore area) may eventually
   deepen near the southern New England coast.

   In the wake of the short wave impulse, mid-level heights are
   expected to rise, but models do suggest that mid/upper flow will
   remain at least broadly cyclonic across much of the south Atlantic
   Seaboard, including the Florida peninsula.  It also appears that a
   cold front, trailing from the Mid Atlantic surface low, may progress
   through the remainder of the central and southern Florida peninsula,
   before stalling and weakening.

   Upstream, broad mid/upper ridging is expected to continue developing
   northeastward across the southern Plains and middle/lower
   Mississippi Valley, to the south of broad upper troughing
   encompassing much of the northwestern U.S. into northern Plains.  At
   least a couple of significant perturbations are embedded within this
   latter feature, including one closed low which is forecast to
   gradually redevelop northeastward, across southern Saskatchewan and
   Manitoba.  Another closed low may form within a perturbation digging
   slowly southeastward through the northern intermountain region/Great
   Basin.  It does appear that a weaker impulse emerging from the Great
   Basin will progress east of the Colorado Rockies through much of the
   north central Plains by 12Z Friday.

   In response to the evolving pattern, a plume of seasonably high
   moisture content has already advected southeast and east of much of
   the northern Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Seaboard (with the
   exception of south Florida).  However, modest moisture levels linger
   beneath the lower/mid tropospheric cyclone across the Ohio Valley
   and Mid Atlantic into portions of New England, ahead of a cold front
   across parts of the northern Plains into Great Basin, and within lee
   surface trough across the central/southern Plains.  And a plume of
   warm elevated mixed layer air is contributing to rather steep
   mid-level lapse rates as it advects across the central/southern
   Plains toward the mid/lower Mississippi Valley.

   ...Mid Atlantic region...
   The lack of stronger vertical shear and stronger, or at least more
   focused, mid-level forcing for ascent appear limiting factors
   concerning severe weather potential for today.  However, modest
   destabilization associated with insolation and cooling aloft may
   contribute to thermodynamic profiles supportive of scattered
   thunderstorm activity with at least some severe wind/hail potential
   (mostly marginal).

   ...South Florida...
   Model output suggests that a weak area of low pressure may develop 
   near/ahead of the cold front, in the vicinity or southeast of Lake
   Okeechobee, during the day today.  If this occurs, locally enhanced
   convergence may provide a focus for storm initiation, in the
   presence of sizable CAPE and lingering strong westerly mid/upper
   flow.  Otherwise, weak frontal/pre-frontal low-level convergence
   seems likely to limit the potential for sustained vigorous
   thunderstorm development.

   ...Central high Plains...
   A signal is evident, within the output of an ensemble of convection
   allowing model guidance, that suggests sustained organized storm
   development is at least possible within a corridor across parts of
   northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas late this afternoon and
   evening.  Thermodynamic profiles across this region probably will
   become favorable, with at least some further moistening beneath very
   steep mid-level lapse rates.  Given this environment, the deep layer
   shear probably will be sufficient to enhance any convective
   development.  However, deterministic model output appears at least a
   bit more unclear concerning supporting forcing for this activity. 
   As a result, severe weather potential seems largely conditional, but
   perhaps enough to maintain slight risk probabilities.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
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