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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 28, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jul 28 19:58:52 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140728 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140728 2000Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 281958

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

   VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD
   WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND
   AND THE SOUTHEAST.

   ...ERN CAROLINAS TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...
   SCATTERED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM THE S
   ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S HAVE YIELDED A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE
   AIR MASS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG. VEERED
   SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR TO
   GREATER VERTICAL SHEAR...IN ADDITION TO PREDOMINATELY PARALLEL
   ORIENTATION OF DEEP-LAYER FLOW WITH THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE
   FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE TRIMMED WRN EXTENT OF SLIGHT RISK
   FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST.

   ...NEW ENGLAND...
   CLUSTERS OF STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COMPACT UPPER LOW AND
   SHOULD EVOLVE NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. THIS TYPE OF
   MODE SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL. HAVE MADE A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO ALIGN SLIGHT RISK WITH THE
   EXPECTED SURFACE CYCLONE TRACK INTO WRN ME...WITH RAPID WEAKENING OF
   THE THREAT STILL ANTICIPATED JUST AFTER SUNSET.

   ..GRAMS.. 07/28/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

   ...EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN MS/AL...
   A LARGE UPPER TROUGH HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
   STATES...WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NC INTO THE
   GULF COAST STATES.  AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG HEATING WILL
   YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
   AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN NC/SC INTO PARTS OF GA/AL/MS.  THUNDERSTORMS
   ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NEAR SEA BREEZE
   BOUNDARIES.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER STRONG WINDS ALOFT FROM
   GA NORTHEASTWARD...WHERE ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES ARE
   POSSIBLE.  THIS AREA IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
   CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  FARTHER WESTWARD...VERTICAL
   SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAKER...BUT POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR A ISOLATED
   SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

   ...NEW ENGLAND...
   A COMPACT UPPER LOW IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NY.  A MID LEVEL
   DRY SLOT IS ROTATING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW...WHERE SOME
   DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL OCCUR THIS
   AFTERNOON.  RESIDUAL DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND COOLING TEMPERATURES
   ALOFT WILL PROMOTE CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  THE
   THREAT SHOULD END RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
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