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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 23, 2016 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jul 23 20:03:34 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160723 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160723 2000Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 232003

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0303 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

   VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHEAST ND/NORTHEAST SD
   ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK OVER
   THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER EASTERN NY INTO NORTHERN
   NEW ENGLAND...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN NY INTO NEW
   ENGLAND...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
   REGION...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
   TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.  DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
   MAIN THREATS.  OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR
   MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FROM EASTERN NEW YORK INTO
   NEW ENGLAND...AND FROM SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST
   VIRGINIA INTO THE DELMARVA REGION.  ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS PART OF THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...
   THE EXPANSIVE AREA OF MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
   PRECIPITATION/CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO
   ADVANCE TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MN THROUGH WESTERN
   AND SOUTHERN WI.  GREATEST DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING TO THE
   WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF THIS CLOUD SHIELD WITH RECENT UPTICKS IN NEW
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  PLEASE REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 1373
   AND 1374 FOR SHORT TERM MESOSCALE DETAILS IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN
   DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN AND PARTS OF EASTERN IA/SOUTHWEST WI/NORTHWEST
   IL...RESPECTIVELY.  NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THE PORTION OF THE
   OUTLOOK IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO MN.

   FOR NORTHEAST/EASTERN IA TO SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL...RECENT TRENDS
   IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND THE VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
   2500-4000 J PER KG/ NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE ONGOING STORMS IN
   NORTHEAST IA TO SOUTHERN WI...AND THE APPROACH OF AN MCV FROM
   NORTH-CENTRAL IA HAVE INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR THE SOUTHWARD
   EXPANSION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES/CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK AREA IN
   THIS REGION.  AN INCREASING THREAT FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF ORGANIZED
   SEVERE STORMS IS SUGGESTED BY THE 18Z PARALLEL HRRR FROM NORTHEAST
   INTO EAST-CENTRAL IA THROUGH SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL.

   ...PARTS OF AR INTO CENTRAL MS...
   AN INCREASING POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
   THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA.  REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
   1375 FOR SHORT TERM MESOSCALE DETAILS.

   ...ELSEWHERE...
   THE SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISK AREA IN NEW ENGLAND...AND THE MARGINAL
   RISK AREA IN SOUTHERN PA TO NORTHERN VA TO THE DELMARVA REGION
   REQUIRE NO CHANGES WITH THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE.  REFER TO SEVERE TSTM
   WATCH 411 AND MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1372...RESPECTIVELY FOR SHORT
   TERM DETAILS IN THESE TWO AREAS.

   ..PETERS.. 07/23/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016/

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...
   A COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING TODAY AS MULTIPLE ONGOING
   CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS/BANDS ARE PROGRESSING EWD AND NEWD OVER ND AND
   ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL/SWRN WI AND NERN IA.  THIS
   ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...WILL MODIFY THE
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION AND MODULATE
   POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT.

   AT THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SRN
   SASKATCHEWAN INTO ERN MT IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE
   CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND ND DURING THE PERIOD WITH MID-LEVEL
   HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE REGION.  THE STRONG CONVECTION
   CURRENTLY OVER SERN ND IS ON THE NOSE OF DRYING ALOFT AND LIKELY
   INDICATES THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE
   OF THE TROUGH.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD WITH TIME AND
   SPREAD INTO AN AREA FROM SERN ND/NERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE
   VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES FILTERED SUNLIGHT/STRONGER DIABATIC
   HEATING WILL OCCUR.  THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY
   AMPLE MOISTURE INSTABILITY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MODIFIED WARM
   FRONT...AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE STORMS TO BUILD SWD TOWARD
   NERN SD THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.  THIS
   ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH A
   THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

   OTHER STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE ALIGNED IN SEVERAL BANDS
   FROM CENTRAL MN INTO NERN IA/SWRN WI.  THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED
   CLOSE TO THE COMPOSITE SURFACE WARM FRONT LOCATION...AND HAS BEEN
   SLIGHTLY ELEVATED DURING THE MORNING.  THE DOWNSTREAM CIRRUS PLUME
   WILL TEMPER DIABATIC HEATING IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE
   STORMS...BUT 12Z MPX SOUNDING EXHIBITED LARGE ANTECEDENT MUCAPE AND
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
   INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND DESPITE MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR...IT
   MAY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NEWD WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   AND HAIL.

   ...ERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND...
   CONVECTION IS INCREASING OVER SRN QUEBEC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORT
   WAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NEW
   ENGLAND.  DOWNSTREAM CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ALSO INCREASING FROM PARTS
   OF ERN NY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. AS DIABATIC HEATING
   CONTINUES/STEEPENS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
   WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH A
   THREAT FOR MAINLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.  SEE MCD 1369 FOR MORE DETAILS.

   ...SRN PA AND NRN WV ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION...
   A VERY WARM/MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS PRESENT WITH SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO THE 90S WITH DEW POINT VALUES IN THE
   UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  12Z RAOBS AT PIT AND IAD EXHIBIT LARGE
   DCAPE PROFILES SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS TO
   DEVELOP WITH ANY SUSTAINED STORMS THAT DEVELOP.  ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
   OF DEEP CONVECTION IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...A MARGINAL SEVERE
   RISK /5% WIND PROBABILITY/ HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
   SCENARIO.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
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