Jun 24, 2016 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jun 24 19:47:10 UTC 2016 (20160624 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160624 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160624 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 172,246 18,155,120 Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Greensboro, NC...
MARGINAL 400,282 28,813,522 Memphis, TN...Denver, CO...Washington, DC...Atlanta, GA...Colorado Springs, CO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160624 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 57,864 190,724 Minot, ND...Williston, ND...Miles City, MT...Glendive, MT...Sidney, MT...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160624 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 171,925 18,104,671 Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Greensboro, NC...
5 % 401,482 29,021,562 Memphis, TN...Denver, CO...Washington, DC...Atlanta, GA...Colorado Springs, CO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160624 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 173,426 18,419,053 Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Greensboro, NC...
5 % 399,365 28,611,242 Memphis, TN...Denver, CO...Washington, DC...Atlanta, GA...Colorado Springs, CO...
   SPC AC 241947

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0247 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

   VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND WIND ARE
   EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS TODAY
   WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS. 
   SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE
   NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

   ...DISCUSSION...

   NO CHANGES TO 1630Z ARE WARRANTED.

   CONVECTION IS INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN OF CENTRAL MT.  THIS ACTIVITY IS MATURING AHEAD OF A
   WELL-DEFINED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND WILL SPREAD INTO AN INCREASINGLY
   MOIST AIR MASS NEAR THE ND BORDER LATE THIS EVENING.

   ELSEWHERE...TSTMS REMAIN CONCENTRATED ALONG MARINE SIDE OF BOUNDARY
   DRAPED ACROSS THE DELMARVA.  STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING IS NOTED
   ACROSS MUCH OF NRN VA WHICH MAY ALLOW CONVECTION FORMING OFF THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN OF MD/WV TO DRIFT SEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   ..DARROW.. 06/24/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

   ...MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS...
   WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD
   ACROSS WV/KY.  THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN INCREASED LARGE SCALE
   FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MD/VA AND THE CAROLINAS.  MODELS
   DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT
   DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...CAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG...AND SUFFICIENT
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR INDICATE A RISK OF A FEW INTENSE STORMS THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR PERHAPS SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

   ...MT/ND...
   SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SHOW AN UPPER LOW ROTATING ACROSS WA/ID INTO
   WESTERN MT.  FORCING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MT BY MID
   AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO
   CENTRAL/EASTERN MT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE A MORE
   MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL AID CONVECTIVE INTENSIFICATION. 
   STRONG WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST THAT STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS AND HAIL WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION...AND INTO WESTERN ND
   BEFORE MIDNIGHT.  A FEW 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT ORGANIZED
   STORMS PERSIST OVER NORTHERN ND AND SPREAD INTO NORTHERN MN BEFORE
   25/12Z.  THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN THIS REGION IN THE SLIGHT RISK.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z