May 24, 2016 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 24 20:00:15 UTC 2016 (20160524 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160524 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160524 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 43,666 317,787 Dodge City, KS...Pampa, TX...Sterling, CO...Woodward, OK...Fort Morgan, CO...
SLIGHT 191,128 9,359,013 Denver, CO...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Aurora, CO...
MARGINAL 477,737 27,382,338 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Minneapolis, MN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160524 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 10,977 91,255 Dodge City, KS...Woodward, OK...
10 % 17,814 159,696 Dodge City, KS...Sterling, CO...Woodward, OK...Fort Morgan, CO...
5 % 52,331 1,547,489 Denver, CO...Aurora, CO...Centennial, CO...Enid, OK...Stillwater, OK...
2 % 121,125 6,895,194 Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Lakewood, CO...Thornton, CO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160524 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 234,485 9,639,494 Denver, CO...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Aurora, CO...
5 % 479,630 27,436,795 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Minneapolis, MN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160524 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 55,245 441,179 Dodge City, KS...Pampa, TX...Sterling, CO...Woodward, OK...Fort Morgan, CO...
30 % 44,261 329,291 Dodge City, KS...Pampa, TX...Sterling, CO...Woodward, OK...Fort Morgan, CO...
15 % 190,322 9,358,902 Denver, CO...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Aurora, CO...
5 % 479,034 27,364,285 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Minneapolis, MN...
   SPC AC 242000

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0300 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

   VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN CO INTO SWRN NEB...

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN
   KS AND NWN OK...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEB INTO OK...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT
   FOR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
   THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.  VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
   WILL BE POSSIBLE.  ANOTHER FOCUSED SEVERE STORM THREAT AREA WILL BE
   ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   EARLY TONIGHT.

   ...ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN KS AND NWRN OK...
   AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM JUST SW OF GCK/DDC AREA
   TOWARD GAG  OK WITH BILLOW CLOUDS INDICATING THE RELATIVELY STABLE
   AIR MASS FOR NOW. CONTINUED STRONG HEATING...AS WELL AS A RAPID NWD
   TRANSPORT OF UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED
   STORMS FORMING ON THIS BOUNDARY. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH
   TIME COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT
   SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELLS. EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES IN EXCESS OF 8.5 C/KM INDICATES TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG. FOR
   MORE INFORMATION  SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 706.

   ...N CNTRL OK INTO CNTRL OK...
   A LONE SUPERCELL HAS FORMED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NOBLE
   COUNTY OK...AND HAS GRADUALLY GROWN LARGE AND NOW EXHIBITS STRONG
   ROTATION AS OF 20Z. THIS CELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD
   WITH POTENTIAL TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. WITH TIME...THIS CELL COULD
   LOSE SUPERCELL STRUCTURE AND EVENTUALLY FORM INTO A SMALL MCS WITH A
   WIND AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE
   DISCUSSION 705.

   AS FOR AREAS FARTHER S INTO CNTRL AND SRN OK...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
   STORMS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON EITHER WRN OK STORMS PERSISTING INTO
   THE AREA...OR NERN OK STORMS EVENTUALLY PROPAGATING SWWD. MODEL
   GUIDANCE IN GENERAL DOES NOT SUPPORT THESE SCENARIOS...BUT GIVEN
   STRONG INSTABILITY AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS...OUTFLOWS FROM NEARBY
   STORMS COULD EASILY RESULT IN MORE STORM PROPAGATION THAN EXPECTED.
   THE 19Z OUN SOUNDING SHOWS A WARM LAYER NEAR 700 MB...WHICH WILL
   REQUIRE SOME SORT OF FORCING MECHANISM SUCH AS DEEP OUTFLOW TO
   BREACH.

   ...NERN CO...
   STORMS ARE CURRENTLY FORMING NEAR THE DENVER AREA AND SHOULD BECOME
   SUPERCELLS WITH A LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. CONTINUE
   TORNADO WATCH 203.

   ..JEWELL.. 05/24/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

   ...KS/OK/TX...
   MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DRYLINE OVER WEST TX...WITH A
   RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING E-W ACROSS NORTHERN OK.  THIS
   BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY WEAKENING...BUT WILL LIKELY BE IMPORTANT TO
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 
   WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHENING BY EARLY
   EVENING.  THE RESULT WILL BE LIKELY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
   THE DRYLINE OVER THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...AND IN VICINITY OF THE
   OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS PRESENT
   WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND VERY STEEP
   LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OVER 4000 J/KG. 
   THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH A RISK
   OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THERE APPEARS TO BE AN
   ENHANCED RISK OF TORNADOES LATER TODAY NEAR THE DRYLINE/OUTFLOW
   TRIPLE-POINT WHERE BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED
   FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR.  SOME 12Z CAM SOLUTIONS ALSO SUGGEST A
   RISK OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IN
   SOUTHWEST OK AS WELL.  EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THESE STORMS THROUGH
   THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT IS UNCERTAIN...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE ONGOING
   SLIGHT RISK INTO NORTHEAST OK AND EASTERN KS.

   ...NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST NEB...
   SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER EASTERN CO ARE TRANSPORTING
   MOISTURE WESTWARD...WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S.  MODEL
   SOLUTIONS ARE VERY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
   ALONG THE DENVER CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON...AND TRACKING THESE CELLS
   NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ENHANCED RISK AREA.  VERY LARGE HAIL AND A
   FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CORRIDOR.  THE CLUSTER OF
   STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEB THIS EVENING WITH A
   CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z