May 5, 2016 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu May 5 19:40:45 UTC 2016 (20160505 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160505 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160505 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 82,809 979,085 Nampa, ID...Missoula, MT...Meridian, ID...Caldwell, ID...Lewiston, ID...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160505 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160505 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 83,336 1,010,017 Nampa, ID...Missoula, MT...Meridian, ID...Caldwell, ID...Lewiston, ID...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160505 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 70,164 805,643 Nampa, ID...Meridian, ID...Caldwell, ID...Lewiston, ID...Pullman, WA...
   SPC AC 051940

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0240 PM CDT THU MAY 05 2016

   VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
   PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NRN ROCKIES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY
   WINDS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
   INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

   NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

   ..BROYLES.. 05/05/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2016/

   ...NRN GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING...
   AS PART OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...A CLOSED
   MIDLEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD OVER CENTRAL/SRN CA THROUGH
   TONIGHT.  DEEP-LAYER SLY/SELY FLOW AROUND THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE
   LOW WILL HELP MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES FOR DEEP
   CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH CONVECTION FOCUSED ALONG A
   BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE NW NV/NE CA BORDER ACROSS ERN ORE TO THE ID
   PANHANDLE.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE...IN
   COMBINATION WITH MLCAPE AOA 500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE
   SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ORGANIZED /POTENTIALLY SUPERCELL/ STORM
   STRUCTURES WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
   ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS.  

   ...CENTRAL AND S CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON...
   SURFACE HEATING AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 55-60 F
   HAVE SUPPORTED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A
   SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL/S CENTRAL NC AS OF LATE MORNING.
   COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /-22 TO -24 C AT 500 MB/ WITH THE
   APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL LOW FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS SUGGEST THAT
   SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. 
   HOWEVER...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND OVERALL RISK FOR HAIL AOA 1
   INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK BUOYANCY AND WEAKENING
   VERTICAL SHEAR WITH TIME...SO WILL NOT ADD ANY HAIL PROBABILITIES TO
   THE OUTLOOK.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z