Oct 29, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Oct 29 19:27:26 UTC 2014 (20141029 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141029 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141029 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141029 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141029 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141029 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 291927

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0227 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

   VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM PARTS OF THE GULF COAST
   STATES INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
   AFTERNOON.

   ...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...
   SPORADIC AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG/AHEAD OF A
   COLD FRONT SETTLING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THIS
   AFTERNOON. AREAS OF STRONGER HEATING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
   HAVE BOOSTED MLCAPE TO AROUND 500 J/KG FROM GA SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN
   MS/AL WHERE A FEW BANDS OF STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS ARE
   EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT
   MARGINAL LAPSE RATES BUT MODEST FLOW/SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING
   LAYER. IT IS POSSIBLE A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER/MORE PERSISTENT CORES
   WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FROM
   WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED STORMS WILL REMAIN LOW AND MOST STORMS WILL
   WEAKEN/DECAY WITH LOSS OF HEATING TOWARD EVENING.

   ..CARBIN.. 10/29/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
   THE COUNTRY TODAY AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TRACK EWD
   THROUGH LARGER-SCALE FLOW. THE FIRST EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
   SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE
   ATLANTIC COAST WHILE ANOTHER MOVES E/SE ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS
   TO UPPER MIDWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
   STRETCHED FROM ERN NY SWD THROUGH CNTRL VA AND THEN SWWD ACROSS THE
   GULF COAST STATES INTO S TX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL
   CONTINUE TO SHIFT E OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND SWD TO NEAR THE NRN
   GULF COAST BY 12Z THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE WARM
   SECTOR FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE CAROLINAS. WEAK DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR AND LIMITED FORCING IN CONJUNCTION WITH SBCAPE GENERALLY LESS
   THAN 1000 J/KG WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z