Apr 15, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Apr 15 19:57:35 UTC 2014 (20140415 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140415 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140415 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140415 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140415 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140415 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 4,020 683,121 Palm Bay, FL...
   SPC AC 151954

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0254 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

   VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST
   CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. 
   ISOLATED GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS
   EVENING ELSEWHERE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO SOUTH FLORIDA.

   ...PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...
   /1/ THE SLIGHT-RISK AREA IN FLORIDA HAS BEEN CONFINED TO PARTS OF
   THE E-CNTRL FL PENINSULA WHERE ONGOING MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL POSE
   A RISK FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MOVING
   OFFSHORE. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING MODERATE-STRONG
   INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN A RISK FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN THE SHORT
   TERM.
   /2/ MARGINAL SVR-WIND PROBABILITIES WERE EXTENDED NWD TOWARD THE NYC
   METRO AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NWD-EXTENDING CORRIDOR OF PRE-FRONTAL
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY JUXTAPOSED WITH STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW. AS
   SUCH...EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND
   COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST OR TWO FARTHER N ACROSS THE
   MID-ATLANTIC.
   /3/ THE WRN EXTENT OF THE MARGINAL SVR-WIND PROBABILITIES WERE
   ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST POSITION OF SYNOPTIC WIND-SHIFT AXES
   THAT ARE SUCCEEDED BY HIGHER BOUNDARY-LAYER STATIC STABILITY AND NO
   SVR TSTM POTENTIAL.

   ...OTHERWISE...
   THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES HAVE
   BEEN MADE. THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SVR STORMS ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
   THE PIEDMONT OF NC...SC...AND SRN VA TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS IS
   WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE LOCALLY STEEPENED IN RESPONSE TO
   SOMEWHAT REDUCED OPACITY OF ABUNDANT MID/HIGH-LEVEL
   CLOUDS...RESULTING IN MODEST DIURNAL INCREASES IN BUOYANCY. WITH
   STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE...DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A
   TORNADO REMAIN POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SURGING NATURE OF A
   COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING S-CNTRL VA INTO CNTRL NC...AND GIVEN
   THE LIMITED PRESSURE RISE-FALL COUPLET ACROSS THAT FRONT AND ACROSS
   ONE THAT IT IS OVERTAKING FARTHER S...CONFIDENCE IN A
   GREATER-COVERAGE SVR RISK IS TOO LOW FOR SLIGHT-RISK DELINEATION.

   ..COHEN.. 04/15/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

   ...NORTH FL...
   A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
   TODAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD OFF THE COAST.  SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTH FL. 
   THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME
   INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE.  AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE
   INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH 40+ KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...WILL
   PROMOTE SOME RISK OF INTENSE CELLS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS.

   ...VA/CAROLINAS...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM
   SOUTHEAST VA INTO THE CAROLINAS.  THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
   OFFSHORE...WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY VEERED LOW
   LEVEL WINDS IN THEIR WAKE.  MODELS DIFFER ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
   RE-DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT LATER TODAY. 
   HOWEVER...AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL
   REMAIN OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.  THEREFORE HAVE
   MAINTAINED LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE REGION.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z