Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 131936
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0136 PM CST MON FEB 13 2012
   
   VALID 132000Z - 141200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE 1630Z OUTLOOK.  THE PRIMARY
   DIFFERENCE BEING THE REMOVAL OF THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ACROSS
   EAST TX IN THE WAKE OF PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  EVEN AHEAD OF
   THIS FEATURE INSTABILITY IS QUITE WEAK AND DEEP CONVECTION CAPABLE
   OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE.
   
   FARTHER WEST...LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
   DIGGING CA UPPER LOW.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY YET DEVELOP ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN OR PERHAPS EVEN ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CNTRL
   CA.  OTHERWISE...EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
   CONTINUE.
   
   ..DARROW.. 02/13/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM CONTINUES FROM CA EWD TO THE MS VALLEY...WITH
   EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIGGING SEWD OVER CENTRAL CA...AND
   PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY. 
   STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK BUOYANCY BELOW 500 MB WILL SUPPORT A RISK
   FOR LOW-TOPPED TSTMS ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN AND SRN SACRAMENTO
   VALLEYS TODAY...WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
   CENTRAL/SRN NV WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE MID-UPPER JET.  
   
   A WAA REGIME WILL SPREAD EWD FROM E TX/LA/AR TO MS/AL BY EARLY
   TONIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE MIDLEVEL
   TROUGH OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX/OK.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
   IN THE LOW 60S WILL SPREAD JUST INLAND ACROSS THE UPPER TX/SW LA
   COASTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVES ENEWD
   FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST.  HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
   SURFACE HEATING AND POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL NOT PROMOTE
   SUBSTANTIAL NEAR-SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY INLAND.  WEAK ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY WILL EXTEND INLAND TO NEAR/N OF I-20 IN THE WAA
   REGIME...WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z