Feb 6, 2016 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Feb 6 19:41:57 UTC 2016 (20160206 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160206 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160206 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160206 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160206 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160206 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 061941

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0141 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

   VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE
   SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.

   ...DISCUSSION...

   TSTM THREAT IS DECREASING ALONG THE UPPER TX/LA COAST...PRIMARILY
   DUE TO DEEPER CONVERGENCE SHIFTING OVER THE NRN GOM.  WHILE A FEW
   SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A LONE LIGHTNING STRIKE...WILL LINGER ACROSS
   THIS REGION IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS OFFSHORE.

   ELSEWHERE...NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

   ..DARROW.. 02/06/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST SAT FEB 06 2016/

   ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...
   A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER E TX THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
   MOVING ESEWD OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO AND SERN U.S. THIS
   AFTERNOON...AND WILL REACH FL BY LATE TONIGHT. ONGOING CONVECTION
   ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HAS MOSTLY MOVED SEWD OFF THE TX/LA
   COAST...BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR A SMALL
   PART OF COASTAL SERN TX/SWRN LA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
   AXIS MOVES OVER THIS AREA. AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
   LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AS SLY/SWLY LOW TO
   MID-LEVEL FLOW MOISTENS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...AND ASCENT
   PRECEDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPREADS OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES ACROSS FL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN POOR...BUT SUFFICIENT
   MID-LEVEL COOLING/MOISTENING BY 07/00Z MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
   OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SERN FL
   COAST EARLY TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   NOT EXPECTED.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z