Nov 25, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Nov 25 19:58:51 UTC 2014 (20141125 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141125 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141125 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 20,323 8,174,330 Tampa, FL...Orlando, FL...Spring Hill, FL...Lakeland, FL...Brandon, FL...
MARGINAL 11,202 2,192,167 St. Petersburg, FL...Cape Coral, FL...Port St. Lucie, FL...Clearwater, FL...Largo, FL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141125 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 20,167 8,140,415 Tampa, FL...Orlando, FL...Spring Hill, FL...Lakeland, FL...Brandon, FL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141125 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 20,164 8,141,026 Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Clearwater, FL...Spring Hill, FL...
5 % 11,569 2,255,543 Cape Coral, FL...Port St. Lucie, FL...Palm Bay, FL...Wellington, FL...Fort Myers, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141125 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 251958

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0158 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

   VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL FL...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL THROUGH SCNTRL FL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...BUT A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT.

   ...CNTRL FL...

   WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT RISK OVER CNTRL FL WHERE STORMS HAVE BEEN
   INCREASING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM NCNTRL FL WWD INTO
   THE ERN GULF. OTHER MORE DISCRETE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
   ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS CNTRL INTO SRN FL ALONG A N-S
   ORIENTED CONVERGENCE ZONE. MOIST INFLOW FROM THE DESTABILIZING WARM
   SECTOR MIGHT PROMOTE AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY
   INTO EARLY EVENING. DEEP-LAYER WINDS ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL SSWLY WITH
   40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR AND SMALL 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS. DESPITE SOME
   INCREASE IN THE LLJ EXPECTED THIS EVENING...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH SIZE
   SHOULD REMAIN MODEST AS THE SFC LOW EVOLVES NNE OF THE INLAND WARM
   SECTOR WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DEGREE OF NEAR-SFC BACKING.
   NEVERTHELESS...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
   ORGANIZED STRUCTURES IN THE LINE INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND TRANSIENT
   BOWING SEGMENTS. SOME OF THE DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
   PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY ALSO DEVELOP UPDRAFT ROTATION.

   ..DIAL.. 11/25/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

   ...CENTRAL FL THROUGH TONIGHT...
   A STALLED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/N FL WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS
   EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE NE GULF LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 
   THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY NEWD TO JUST OFF THE CAROLINAS BY
   26/12Z...AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER S TX ACCELERATES
   ENEWD.  RICH MOISTURE IS PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL/S FL WITH BOUNDARY
   LAYER DEWPOINTS UP TO THE MID 70S AND PW VALUES AOA 2 INCHES. 
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP...BUT SOME SURFACE HEATING S OF
   THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/BUOYANCY GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL FL WILL
   HELP BOOST AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES TO NEAR 1500 J/KG.  

   THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT/MODERATE BUOYANCY AND WEAK ASCENT WILL SUPPORT
   ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
   FL...AND TONIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS THE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE NE
   OF FL.  DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR
   ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS UNLIKELY TO
   INCREASE MUCH THROUGH TONIGHT GIVEN THE PRIMARY CYCLOGENESIS AND
   LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE EXPECTED OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST. 
   ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO WILL BE THE MAIN
   SEVERE WEATHER RISKS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z