Mar 28, 2015 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Mar 28 19:36:41 UTC 2015 (20150328 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150328 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150328 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 68,083 202,481 Sheridan, WY...Dickinson, ND...Williston, ND...Miles City, MT...Glendive, MT...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150328 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150328 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 68,083 202,481 Sheridan, WY...Dickinson, ND...Williston, ND...Miles City, MT...Glendive, MT...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150328 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 281936

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0236 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

   VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN MT INTO
   THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF MONTANA AND
   WYOMING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
   TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   ...20Z UPDATE TO THE DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...
   THE WRN BOUND OF THE MARGINAL AREA HAS BEEN SHIFTED WWD ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF MT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING THE RISK OF
   ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE MARGINAL AREA...PLEASE REFER TO
   RECENTLY ISSUED MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 155.

   ..COHEN.. 03/28/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

   ...MT/WY/SD/ND...
   WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
   WESTERN MT.  THIS AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
   FEATURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO EASTERN MT BY MID AFTERNOON. 
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...FAST TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...AND SUFFICIENT LOW/MID LEVEL
   MOISTURE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED FAST-MOVING SHOWERS AND
   THUNDERSTORMS.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS OVER EASTERN MT AND THE
   WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL POSE A RISK OF LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.

   ELSEWHERE...NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z