Oct 21, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Oct 21 19:29:14 UTC 2014 (20141021 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141021 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141021 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141021 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141021 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141021 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 211929

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

   VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
   EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE ROCKIES...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
   TEXAS...SOUTH FLORIDA...AS WELL AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
   MIDDLE-ATLANTIC REGION.

   ...DISCUSSION..

   CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE
   WITH THIS UPDATE.

   ..DIAL.. 10/21/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
   COAST TO SE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN
   UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW FORMS OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY/CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS.  THIS CLOSED LOW WILL THEN DRIFT EWD TO THE MID
   ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
   IS EXPECTED NEAR AND JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY
   INTO TONIGHT.  THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED OVER LAND
   IN THIS PATTERN...COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND RELATIVELY STEEP
   LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BUOYANCY AND THE RISK FOR
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ZONE OF ASCENT PRECEDING THE
   DEVELOPING MIDLEVEL LOW.

   ELSEWHERE...A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ENEWD FROM
   ID TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY BY LATE TONIGHT. 
   STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL
   SUPPORT WEAK BUOYANCY AND A CONTINUED RISK FOR WIDELY-SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS INTO PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FROM SW TX INTO NM WITHIN THE
   LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SRN STREAM
   TROUGH.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN THE NRN FRINGE
   OF THE TROPICAL AIR MASS ACROSS S TX AND S FL TODAY.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z