Feb 28, 2015 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Feb 28 19:52:14 UTC 2015 (20150228 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150228 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150228 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150228 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150228 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150228 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 281952

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0152 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

   VALID 282000Z - 011200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO
   TONIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS
   AREA...AND OVER PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.  ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
   NOT EXPECTED.

   THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO MOVE THE THUNDER LINE ACROSS
   THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA A BIT FURTHER NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT IS ONGOING. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES HAVE
   BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS.

   ..BROYLES.. 02/28/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   ELONGATED UPR LOW/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SLOWLY S ACROSS CA
   AND THE FAR ERN PACIFIC THIS PERIOD. IN RESPONSE...EXPECT DOWNSTREAM
   SPLIT FLOW TO GRADUALLY BACK AND HEIGHTS TO SLIGHTLY RISE ACROSS
   MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FL
   PENINSULA...ARCTIC OR MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL PERSIST E OF THE
   RCKYS. WARMER...BUT ONLY MODERATELY MOIST AIR OF RECENT PACIFIC
   ORIGIN WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF CA AND THE SOUTHWEST.

   ...CA TO FOUR CORNERS TODAY INTO TNGT...
   SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN VORT CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH E
   PACIFIC/CA TROUGH WILL TRACK SWD OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
   NEVERTHELESS...A BAND OF MID-LVL COOLING/ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD
   CNTRL/SRN CA TODAY ATTENDANT TO ASSOCIATED VORT LOBE EXTENDING E
   INTO THE CNTRL SIERRA. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND TERRAIN
   CIRCULATIONS...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT SCTD DIURNAL CONVECTION FROM THE
   CNTRL CA CST ESE INTO THE CNTRL VLY/SRN SIERRA. SOME OF THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL SUFFICIENTLY DEEPEN TO PRODUCE THUNDER AND PERHAPS
   SMALL HAIL. BUT CONFIGURATION OF UPR TROUGH WILL LEAVE THE AREAS OF
   GREATEST LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION REMOVED FROM THE CORRIDORS OF DEEP
   SHEAR MOST FAVORABLE FOR SVR STORMS. WHILE AN ISOLD FUNNEL CLOUD OR
   HAIL REPORT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...SUSTAINED SVR WEATHER DOES NOT
   APPEAR LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...WDLY SCTD AFTN/EARLY EVE SHOWERS/STORMS
   ALSO MAY OCCUR E/SE TO THE FOUR CORNERS. 

   ...SRN/CNTRL FL TODAY...
   MARITIME TROPICAL AIR NOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND FL STRAITS WILL
   GRADUALLY SPREAD N ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS
   PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS AND NWD RETREAT/EROSION
   OF SHALLOW COOL DOME NOW EXTENDING S TO AROUND LK OKEECHOBEE.
   LOW-AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE CNTRL GULF MAY
   CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT LOW-LVL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ATOP
   COOL DOME TO YIELD ISOLD ELEVATED TSTMS IN THE TAMPA AREA TODAY.
   FARTHER S...SFC-BASED STORMS MAY FORM IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING
   AND UPLIFT ALONG SHALLOW FRONT/CSTL TROUGH IN THE MIA/PBI AREA.
   WHILE RELATIVELY HIGH PW MAY SUPPORT A STRONG DOWNDRAFT OR
   TWO...WEAK WIND FIELD SHOULD PRECLUDE A SUSTAINED SVR THREAT.

   ...SE TX EARLY SUN...
   STRENGTHENING 925-850 MB WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ASSOCIATED
   LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE AXIS MAY SUPPORT INCREASING COVERAGE OF SLIGHTLY
   ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER SE TX. WITH NO UPSTREAM
   UPR-LVL DISTURBANCE APPARENT ATTM IN SATELLITE IMAGERY TO PROVIDE
   MID-LVL COOLING/ASCENT...AND WITH HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE
   WITH TIME...THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE CONVECTION WILL SUFFICIENTLY
   DEEPEN TO YIELD THUNDER APPEARS LOW. HOWEVER...A FEW...SPORADIC
   LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY NEVERTHELESS OCCUR.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z