Jul 2, 2015 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jul 2 19:47:49 UTC 2015 (20150702 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150702 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150702 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 236,503 23,988,457 Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...Nashville, TN...Atlanta, GA...Tulsa, OK...
MARGINAL 516,119 47,076,906 Jacksonville, FL...Charlotte, NC...Denver, CO...Washington, DC...Virginia Beach, VA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150702 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150702 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 236,667 24,014,149 Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...Nashville, TN...Atlanta, GA...Tulsa, OK...
5 % 488,564 45,361,907 Jacksonville, FL...Charlotte, NC...Denver, CO...Washington, DC...Virginia Beach, VA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150702 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 60,672 4,314,153 Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Norman, OK...Broken Arrow, OK...Fort Smith, AR...
5 % 651,763 62,434,876 Memphis, TN...Charlotte, NC...Denver, CO...Washington, DC...Nashville, TN...
   SPC AC 021947

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0247 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2015

   VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
   SOUTHEAST STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
   PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
   SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS.

   ...20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE...
   GIVEN AN UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS AND TENDENCY FOR STORM
   CLUSTERING AMID STRENGTHENING 2-4KM AGL WESTERLY
   WINDS...MARGINAL/SLIGHT-RELATED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED AND
   EXPANDED EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF SC/NC/GA/NORTHERN FL FOR MAINLY A
   DAMAGING WIND RISK THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS OK/SOUTHERN KS INTO AR/SOUTHERN MO LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
   PLAINS/OZARKS...SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1282.

   ..GUYER.. 07/02/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT THU JUL 02 2015/

   ...KY/TN...
   A BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES EXTENDS ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS TODAY.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
   SUGGESTS RELATIVELY RAPID CLEARING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
   DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF KY/TN AFFECTED BY
   OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.  THEREFORE HAVE SHIFTED SLGT RISK AREA BACK
   INTO THIS REGION FOR THE POTENTIAL OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGER
   CELLS.

   ...KS/OK...
   ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
   INTENSIFYING LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
   PARTS OF SOUTHERN KS...SPREADING INTO OK THIS EVENING.  DAMAGING
   WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT.

   ...NC/VA...
   STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
   REGION AND CAROLINAS...WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
   DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON.  SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION AROUND PEAK
   HEATING...WITH SUFFICIENT WINDS ALOFT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
   ORGANIZATION.  SHORT-TERM TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
   INCLUSION INTO SLGT RISK AT 20Z.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z