Jan 29, 2015 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 29 19:39:09 UTC 2015 (20150129 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150129 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150129 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150129 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150129 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150129 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 291939

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0139 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

   VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

   NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE.

   ..PETERS.. 01/29/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP/FORECAST...
   CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFY OVER THE ERN U.S...DOWNSTREAM
   FROM QUASI-STNRY SPLIT OVER THE WEST. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER THE
   LWR OH VLY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT SHEARS ENE INTO MD/PA LATER
   TODAY...AHEAD OF CONSOLIDATING NRN AND MIDDLE STREAM DISTURBANCES
   MOVING SEWD FROM WRN ONT AND IA. THE LATTER FEATURES SHOULD EVOLVE
   INTO A FAIRLY SHARP...NEUTRALLY-TILTED TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/SRN
   APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI. OVER THE SOUTHWEST...CURRENT SATELLITE DATA
   LEND CREDENCE TO THE IDEA THAT VORT MAX NOW W OF THE BAJA SPUR WILL
   DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED CLOSED LOW CENTERED OFF THE NRN BAJA CST
   BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 

   DESPITE EXPECTED POCKETS OF MDT TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG FORCING FOR
   ASCENT...WEAK BUOYANCY /OWING PRIMARILY TO SPARSE MOISTURE/ SHOULD
   PROHIBIT TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ERN U.S.  

   ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT TSTMS OVER PARTS OF
   THE SWRN U.S...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD OVER FAR SRN CA AND AZ
   AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ON E
   SIDE OF TROUGH. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST
   FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z