Aug 29, 2016 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Aug 29 19:43:43 UTC 2016 (20160829 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160829 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160829 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 72,851 4,757,488 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Bloomington, MN...Plymouth, MN...Brooklyn Park, MN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160829 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160829 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 73,206 4,767,392 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Bloomington, MN...Plymouth, MN...Brooklyn Park, MN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160829 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 40,969 1,574,329 St. Cloud, MN...Blaine, MN...Andover, MN...Superior, WI...Champlin, MN...
   SPC AC 291943

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0243 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

   VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS EASTERN SD TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
   MN...NRN WI AND UPPER MI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO
   NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN.

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION...

   NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING OUTLOOK. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
   STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A SEWD-ADVANCING COLD
   FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

   ..DIAL.. 08/29/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/

   ...EASTERN SD TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN AND UPPER MI...
   CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY DECAYED THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
   MN/NORTHERN WI INTO WESTERN UPPER MI...BUT REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
   LATER TODAY NEAR A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT THAT WILL
   GENERALLY EXTEND NORTHEAST/SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST/CENTRAL MN
   INTO EASTERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL SD BY EARLY EVENING. 60S F SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
   MLCAPE LIKELY REACHING 2000-3500 J/KG.

   WITH AID OF WEAK LATE-DAY HEIGHT FALLS VIA A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
   NORTHERN MANITOBA...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT NEAR-FRONTAL
   CONVERGENCE IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAKENING INHIBITION FOR
   ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WEAK LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS SHOULD BE A
   CONSIDERABLE LIMITING FACTOR WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE
   20-25 KT OR LESS...ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH/ANVIL-LEVEL
   WESTERLIES MAY BE A FAVORABLE FACTOR. IN ALL...MULTICELL CLUSTERS
   CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...PRESUMING SUFFICIENT NEAR-FRONTAL HEATING
   AND RELATED STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A
   LANDSPOUT-RELATED BRIEF TORNADO RISK CANNOT BE RULED OUT
   PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SLOWER-MOVING PORTION OF THE FRONT ACROSS
   EASTERN SD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

   ...LA/FAR EAST TX...
   MORNING OBSERVED UPPER-AIR DATA REFLECTS MODESTLY ENHANCED EASTERLY
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS LA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK LOW
   THAT IS LOCATED OFF OF THE TX COAST. NORTH OF THE ONGOING
   NEAR-COASTAL CONVECTION...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT ENOUGH
   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OVER INLAND AREAS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
   DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF SOME WESTWARD-PROPAGATING STRONG
   STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS
   MAY BE POSSIBLE.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z