Jul 31, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jul 31 19:57:05 UTC 2014 (20140731 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140731 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140731 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 21,162 693,064 Concord, NH...Keene, NH...Laconia, NH...Claremont, NH...Brattleboro, VT...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140731 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140731 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 20,979 706,760 Concord, NH...Keene, NH...Laconia, NH...Claremont, NH...Brattleboro, VT...
5 % 104,870 14,034,682 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Springfield, MA...Manchester, NH...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140731 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 21,451 706,149 Concord, NH...Keene, NH...Laconia, NH...Claremont, NH...Brattleboro, VT...
5 % 32,074 4,223,711 Springfield, MA...Manchester, NH...Lowell, MA...Albany, NY...Nashua, NH...
   SPC AC 311957

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0257 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

   VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW
   ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH
   GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE CASCADE RANGE
   OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON.

   ...20Z UPDATE...
   ASIDE FROM SPATIAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND SLIGHT
   RISK...THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED. SEE THE
   PRIOR OUTLOOK DISCUSSION BELOW. ELSEWHERE...A FEW STRONGER STORMS
   COULD ALSO OCCUR THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS
   EAST-CENTRAL NEB...THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS AREA AND/OR
   SC. HOWEVER...THE RESPECTIVE SCENARIOS APPEAR TOO MARGINAL FOR AN
   INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

   ..GUYER.. 07/31/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

   ...NY/NEW ENGLAND...
   WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX ROTATING
   NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  A LINE OF SHOWERS
   AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER SYSTEM OVER EASTERN
   NY.  THE STORMS WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
   THIS AFTERNOON.  DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...SLOW HEATING
   INTO THE 70S WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG.  EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR VALUES OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN THE RISK OF A FEW
   ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. PLEASE REFER TO
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1505 FOR FURTHER DETAILS. 

   ...TX...
   A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EAST TX. 
   THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM DAL-JCT AND
   WILL SAG ACROSS EAST TX THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  DEWPOINTS WELL
   INTO THE 70S AND POCKETS OF STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
   CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 
   VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG /6KM SHEAR OF
   20-25 KNOTS/ AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER WEAK. 
   NEVERTHELESS...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY RESULT IN GUSTY
   WINDS.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z