Aug 29, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Aug 29 19:44:48 UTC 2014 (20140829 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140829 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140829 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140829 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 18,240 561,000 Wausau, WI...Stevens Point, WI...Marshfield, WI...Weston, WI...Plover, WI...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140829 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 262,971 25,791,637 Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Madison, WI...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140829 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 35,247 453,894 Fargo, ND...Moorhead, MN...Aberdeen, SD...West Fargo, ND...West Fargo, MN...
   SPC AC 291944

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0244 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

   VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
   FROM THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO
   WISCONSIN AND WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE
   EASTERN DAKOTAS.  ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS
   HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

   THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM PARTS OF
   ERN MT AND NWRN ND. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.

   ..BROYLES.. 08/29/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

   ...MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...
   MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A BROAD/WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
   CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  VISIBLE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS A SMALLER-
   SCALE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX OVER EASTERN KS...WHICH WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING.  STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX OVER
   PARTS OF MO/IA/IL AND SOUTHEAST MN.  DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND
   STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE MODERATE CAPE VALUES
   AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS IN THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. 
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.  SLIGHTLY COOLER
   MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY
   INCREASE THE RISK OF HAIL IN THE MORE INTENSE STORMS OVER THE
   NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA AS WELL.  THE MAIN RISK OF SEVERE
   WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH SOON AFTER SUNSET.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z