Categorical Graphic
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 012032
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0332 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011
   
   VALID 012000Z - 021200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
   PLAINS...OZARKS AND MID-MS VALLEY...
   
   A FEW CHANGES TO THE OUTLOOK HAVE BEEN MADE FOR 20Z. THE FIRST
   CHANGE IS TO EXTEND THE SLIGHT RISK AREA EWD INTO WRN TN FOR BOTH
   HAIL AND WIND. A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING NEAR
   MEMPHIS ON THE FAR NRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. AHEAD OF THE
   LINE...THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDS ABOUT 150 STATUTE MILES EAST
   OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SUGGESTING THE LINE MAY HAVE A SEVERE
   THREAT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. OTHER THAN THE SLIGHT RISK
   EXTENSION...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PROBABILITY LINES HAVE
   BEEN MADE IN CNTRL AND EAST TX WHERE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
   ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/01/2011
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011/
   
   ...CNTRL TX NEWD INTO PARTS OF THE LWR MS AND LWR TN VLYS...
   WITH TROUGH/UPPER LOW OVER SRN ROCKIES MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EWD THRU
   THE PERIOD...STRONG SWLY MID/UPR JET WILL REMAIN ACROSS SRN PLAINS. 
   THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH REINFORCEMENT FROM THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   THIS MORNINGS ACTIVE POST FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS PUSHED SEWD ACROSS
   NCENTRAL TX.
   
   THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS TX EWD TO THE MS RIVER IS PRIMED FOR A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS...ATOP WHICH RESIDES
   A PRONOUNCED EML WITH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM.  THUS FAR THE
   MOST ACTIVE STORMS...INCLUDING SEVERE...HAVE BEEN ELEVATED TO THE N
   OF FRONTAL ZONE.
   
   AS WARM SECTOR TEMPS RISE TO THE MID 80S IN E TX TO MS RIVER...CINH
   WILL DISSIPATE...LEADING TO DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA OF BEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL
   ZONE. AMPLE DEEP SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS AS
   SRN FRINGE OF 50-60 KT SWLY MID LVL FLOW TOPS 35-40 KT SSWLY
   CONFLUENT LLJ.  STORM MODE WILL RANGE FROM SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
   TO COMPLEX ROTATING STRUCTURES/BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS. THE STRONGEST
   LOW LVL SHEAR SHOULD EXIST FROM NE TX AND THE ARKLATEX NEWD TO NEAR
   MEMPHIS...WHERE A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL
   AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DMGG WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN SVR THREATS.
   
   FARTHER SW WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAKER AND CAP A LITTLE
   STRONGER...SCTD SEVERE STORMS MAY FORM A BIT LATER IN THE AFTN JUST
   AHEAD OF THE FRONT/DRY LINE OVER ERN PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND
   OVER E CNTRL TX. WHILE SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN MUCAPE IN
   EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG...PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL WITH A
   MORE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z