Jul 5, 2015 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jul 5 20:12:02 UTC 2015 (20150705 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150705 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150705 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 64,018 1,300,933 Sioux Falls, SD...St. Cloud, MN...Watertown, SD...Willmar, MN...Brookings, SD...
SLIGHT 103,208 2,088,586 Duluth, MN...Plymouth, MN...Brooklyn Park, MN...Coon Rapids, MN...Rapid City, SD...
MARGINAL 351,231 46,352,970 Jacksonville, FL...Charlotte, NC...Denver, CO...New Orleans, LA...Virginia Beach, VA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150705 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 43,081 669,577 Watertown, SD...Willmar, MN...Brookings, SD...Mitchell, SD...Fergus Falls, MN...
2 % 155,328 5,475,957 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Fargo, ND...Bloomington, MN...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150705 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 % 53,362 1,089,908 Sioux Falls, SD...St. Cloud, MN...Watertown, SD...Willmar, MN...Brookings, SD...
15 % 109,458 2,279,443 Plymouth, MN...Brooklyn Park, MN...Coon Rapids, MN...Rapid City, SD...Maple Grove, MN...
5 % 330,001 46,203,558 Jacksonville, FL...Charlotte, NC...Denver, CO...New Orleans, LA...Virginia Beach, VA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150705 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 % 42,370 687,042 Watertown, SD...Willmar, MN...Brookings, SD...Mitchell, SD...Fergus Falls, MN...
15 % 124,012 2,634,525 Sioux Falls, SD...Duluth, MN...Plymouth, MN...Brooklyn Park, MN...Rapid City, SD...
5 % 133,024 5,008,223 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Fort Collins, CO...Fargo, ND...Greeley, CO...
   SPC AC 052012

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0312 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2015

   VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OT THE NORTHERN
   PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
   ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
   ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS NEAR THE GULF COAST...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FL NORTH ALONG THE
   SOUTHEAST COAST...

   CORRECTED FOR SPELLING AND NDFD WIND PROBABILITIES

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND POSSIBLY
   A TORNADO OR TWO WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE
   NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH
   DAKOTA...NORTHERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND NORTHWEST
   IOWA.  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS YIELDING DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
   SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.

   ...ENH RISK AREA FROM NRN NEB AND ERN SD INTO WRN MN...
   REMOVED SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR LARGE HAIL AND HIGH
   WINDS WITH THIS UPDATE. LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST CAPPING WILL HOLD
   ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS UNTIL STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING
   ARRIVES THIS EVENING. IN THE SHORT-TERM...STORMS COMING OFF THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN OF EXTREME SERN WY WILL SPREAD EAST INTO A HOT AND
   DEEPLY MIXED AIRMASS ACROSS WRN/NRN NEB WITH TIME. WIND DAMAGE AND
   HAIL PSBL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. 

   MORE INTENSE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM
   CNTRL AND ERN SD INTO MN LATER...COINCIDENT WITH AN INCREASE IN
   DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND FORCING. EXPECT INITIAL STORMS TO POSE SOME
   CHANCE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL BEFORE
   TRANSITIONING INTO QUASI-LINEAR SYSTEM WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUING INTO THE NIGH ACROSS POTIONS OF ERN SD AND
   MN.

   ..CARBIN.. 07/05/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT SUN JUL 05 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE OVER NRN MANITOBA WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS SRN
   PORTIONS OF HUDSON BAY...ENHANCING A BELT OF WLY MID TO UPPER-LEVEL
   FLOW OVER THE N-CNTRL CONUS.  EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS HIGH-MOMENTUM AIR
   STREAM...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY MOVING SEWD INTO THE NRN
   INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL ACCELERATE ESEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHERE
   IT WILL BECOME LOOSELY PHASED WITH A WEAKER...LOWER-LATITUDE IMPULSE
   ORIGINATING OVER ERN PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN.  ELSEWHERE...A
   MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES WILL
   CONTINUE EWD TOWARD THE MID AND SERN ATLANTIC COASTS.

   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH THE RED AND
   UPPER MS VALLEYS WHILE FARTHER WEST THE BOUNDARY SURGES SWD FROM THE
   NRN INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.  A FRONTAL WAVE ANALYZED OVER WRN SD
   THIS MORNING WILL DEVELOP ESEWD ALONG THE FRONT...REACHING SERN SD
   BY 12Z/MONDAY.

   ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

   A SMALL MCS IS PRESENT AS OF MID MORNING INVOF THE SURFACE COLD
   FRONT OVER NERN ND...AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID-LEVEL
   IMPULSE /LIKELY OF CONVECTIVE ORIGIN/ MOVING THROUGH CNTRL ND. 
   TIME-HEIGHT TRENDS FROM THE BISMARK WSR-88D VAD INDICATE THAT THIS
   DISTURBANCE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BELT OF 40-50 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW
   WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH A WARMING/DESTABILIZING AIR MASS OVER THE
   RED RIVER VALLEY SHOULD SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF THE MCS AT LEAST
   THROUGH NWRN MN THIS AFTERNOON.  DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND SOME
   SEVERE HAIL WITH BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ALONG THE MCS TRACK.  FOR
   ADDITION NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 1303 AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH 390.

   OTHER SURFACE-BASED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
   ALONG THE TRAILING OUTFLOW FROM THE EARLY-DAY MCS AND/OR COLD FRONT
   FROM SERN ND THROUGH CNTRL INTO WRN SD AS DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR
   ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSES MENTIONED IN THE
   SYNOPSIS.  STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH
   BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL YIELD MODERATE TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WHERE
   MLCAPE WILL APPROACH 2000-3000+ J/KG.  THIS INSTABILITY WILL ALIGN
   WITH STEADILY STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO FOSTER A MIXTURE OF
   SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE NE-SW
   ORIENTED CONVECTIVE BAND.  INITIAL HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
   PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES WITH A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY DAMAGING
   WINDS LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS STORMS CONGEAL INTO A
   SEWD-MOVING MCS.  

   ...LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

   12Z REGIONAL RAOBS SAMPLED A VERY MOIST AND ALREADY MODERATE TO
   STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
   MENTIONED ABOVE.  PERSISTENT SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ENHANCE
   INFLOW OF THIS AIR MASS INTO THE ONGOING STORMS OVER THE
   ARKLAMISS...PROMOTING THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY ALONG A GROWING/DEEPENING COLD POOL.  GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
   INSTABILITY...A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE AND RELATIVELY
   STRONG HIGH-LEVEL FLOW...THE SETUP MAY SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED
   DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

   ...SERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON EVENING...

   ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS IS NOT AS UNSTABLE AS THAT OVER THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY...AMPLE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD POCKETS OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON DOWNSTREAM FROM THE ONGOING STORMS
   OVER SWRN GA AND THE FL PNHDL.  A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SWLY MID-LEVEL
   FLOW AND FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
   AID IN THE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE GA/FL STORMS AS WELL AS
   PROMOTE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONTS AND
   PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  GIVEN THE CHARACTER OF THE
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED
   DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z