Oct 30, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Oct 30 05:26:55 UTC 2014 (20141030 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141030 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141030 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141030 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141030 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141030 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 300526

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1226 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TODAY INTO
   TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TEXAS...AND
   FLORIDA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AMPLIFICATION WITHIN THE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE PACIFIC APPEARS
   LIKELY TO TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS
   PERIOD.  IN ADVANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO
   APPROACH THE PACIFIC COAST...MODELS INDICATE THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL
   CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. AND
   CANADA.  AT THE SAME TIME...CONSIDERABLE DEEPENING OF UPPER
   TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED.  

   WHILE THE MOST PROMINENT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WITHIN THIS LATTER
   FEATURE LIKELY WILL DIG FROM NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE UPPER
   GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...A NUMBER OF OTHER
   PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS THROUGH SHARPENING CYCLONIC
   FLOW FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
   THROUGH THE MID AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  ONE SURFACE FRONT
   IS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF ADVANCING OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC AND
   GULF COASTS...WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR BECOMING CONFINED TO
   FLORIDA...AND PORTIONS OF TEXAS...IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SOUTHWARD
   SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.  AS A
   RESULT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
   LOW...WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOSTLY WEAK AND SPARSE IN
   COVERAGE WITHIN WIDELY SCATTERED AREAS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

   ...FLORIDA...
   PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN NEAR THE MINIMUM
   10 PERCENT THRESHOLD /AT BEST/ FOR A CATEGORICAL THUNDER OUTLOOK
   THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...DUE TO GENERALLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCING
   SURFACE FRONT.  HOWEVER...LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AS
   NEAR-SURFACE WINDS TURN TO NORTHEASTERLY ALONG THE COAST NEAR
   DAYTONA BEACH...AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS
   POSSIBLE...AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
   APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
   INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR BENEATH WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW FORECAST TO
   STRENGTHEN TO 30-40 KT COULD PROVIDE SOME SUPPORT FOR FAIRLY
   VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  AT THIS POINT...HOWEVER...DUE TO
   THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED ANTICIPATED STORM COVERAGE OVER
   INLAND AREAS...SEVERE PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW 5
   PERCENT.

   ..KERR/COHEN.. 10/30/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z