Aug 26, 2016 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Aug 26 19:58:28 UTC 2016 (20160826 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160826 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160826 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 32,942 2,879,738 Kansas City, MO...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Topeka, KS...Olathe, KS...
MARGINAL 351,133 17,751,719 Indianapolis, IN...Memphis, TN...Wichita, KS...St. Louis, MO...Lincoln, NE...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160826 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 14,654 1,576,356 Kansas City, MO...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Independence, MO...St. Joseph, MO...
2 % 44,188 2,173,705 Topeka, KS...Olathe, KS...Lawrence, KS...Manhattan, KS...Quincy, IL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160826 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 30,943 2,859,422 Kansas City, MO...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Topeka, KS...Olathe, KS...
5 % 347,518 17,748,070 Indianapolis, IN...Memphis, TN...Wichita, KS...St. Louis, MO...Lincoln, NE...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160826 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 25,896 2,724,615 Kansas City, MO...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Topeka, KS...Olathe, KS...
5 % 239,207 9,961,656 Indianapolis, IN...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Dayton, OH...Springfield, IL...
   SPC AC 261958

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

   VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN KS TO NORTHERN
   MO/SOUTHERN IA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WY/HIGH PLAINS TO THE
   MIDWEST/MID-SOUTH...

   ...SUMMARY...
   GENERALLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST. THE RELATIVELY
   GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
   MISSOURI VALLEY WHERE ALL SEVERE-WEATHER HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE.

   ...EASTERN KS/LOWER MO VALLEY TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
   MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS 1630Z OUTLOOK...AS SHOWERS HAVE
   INITIATED ACROSS CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF KS. EXPECT PARTS OF ERN KS
   INTO NRN MO TO REMAIN THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SUPERCELL
   DEVELOPMENT...WITH LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND A COUPLE
   TORNADOES POSSIBLE. FOR ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS...REF MCD
   1595.

   ...HIGH PLAINS...
   ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM ERN CO/FAR WRN KS NWD INTO ERN
   WY...AS CLOUD COVER HAS ERODED/SHIFTED E. RELATIVELY COOLER
   TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO SWRN SD
   AMIDST THICKER CLOUD COVER. GIVEN 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...A
   FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES REMAINING POSITIONED
   OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ONLY IN THE 70S
   F ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGH PLAINS...BOTH THE MAGNITUDE/COVERAGE OF
   THESE THREATS SHOULD REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR A MARGINAL RISK AREA.

   ..ROGERS.. 08/26/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/

   ...EASTERN KS/LOWER MO VALLEY TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
   UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...A WAVY AND
   GENERALLY SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST-ORIENTED FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD TODAY ACROSS MO/EASTERN KS AND
   SOUTH-CENTRAL IL. WHILE CLOUDS AND SOME SCATTERED
   SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN SEMI-PREVALENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE WARM
   SECTOR AT LATE MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN MO AND FAR EASTERN OK INTO
   WESTERN/NORTHERN AR...PERIPHERAL CLEARING FROM EAST-CENTRAL OK INTO
   EASTERN KS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE BUOYANCY/INCREASINGLY WEAK
   INHIBITION NEAR THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP. 

   AMID INCREASINGLY MOIST/CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW...CURRENT THINKING
   IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP/INCREASE NEAR THE
   NORTHWARD-MOVING FRONT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. A BELT OF CONFLUENT
   30-40 KT MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
   SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SEVERE HAIL
   WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR/SRH PARTICULARLY IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD
   SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO OR TWO FROM GENERALLY NEAR THE
   KC METRO LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
   NORTHERN MO AND POSSIBLY FAR SOUTHERN IA.

   ...HIGH PLAINS...
   A MODEST-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES ACROSS
   THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN SHOULD SHIFT
   GRADUALLY EAST TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES...WITH AT LEAST
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE ACROSS THE
   REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AROUND 40-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR...ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AS MUCH AS 1000 J/KG OF
   MLCAPE...MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING. HAIL AND LOCALLY SEVERE-CALIBER WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
   HAZARDS. AS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET MODESTLY INCREASES THIS
   EVENING...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING
   CLUSTERS TO EVOLVE/PERSIST THIS EVENING...PERHAPS ESPECIALLY FROM
   EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD/NEB PANHANDLE BUT ALSO ACROSS THE
   SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS.

   ...MID-SOUTH/MS RIVER VALLEY...
   A WARM/VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL YIELD SOME POTENTIAL FOR
   THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DOWNBURSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALIZED
   WIND DAMAGE A POSSIBILITY...PARTICULARLY FROM PARTS OF AR/WESTERN TN
   NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN IL.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z