Mar 3, 2015 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Mar 3 05:53:18 UTC 2015 (20150303 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150303 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150303 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150303 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150303 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150303 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 030553

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1153 PM CST MON MAR 02 2015

   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES...AND ON TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT FROM THE
   SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE-SCALE POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE
   CANADIAN PRAIRIE SSWWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W TO SRN CA AND THE
   ADJACENT ERN PACIFIC IS PROGGED TO MAKE EWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE U.S.
   TUE.  AS THIS OCCURS...AN ASSOCIATED NE-SW SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
   PROGGED TO SHARPEN AS IT SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN U.S.
   WITH TIME.

   WITH GENERALLY DRY/STABLE AIR PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   COUNTRY...THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LIMITED.  ONE AREA OF
   ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR
   CORNERS STATES...AS COOL AIR AT MID-LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
   UPPER TROUGH YIELDS WEAK DESTABILIZATION.  SHOWERS AND A FEW
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE ADVANCING SURFACE
   FRONT -- FROM PORTIONS OF W TX EWD INTO THE MID MS/TN/LOWER OH
   VALLEY REGION.  IN BOTH OF THESE AREAS...MEAGER INSTABILITY SUGGESTS
   WEAK/DISORGANIZED CONVECTION.

   ..GOSS/PICCA.. 03/03/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z