Jun 25, 2016 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jun 25 19:37:43 UTC 2016 (20160625 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160625 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160625 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 63,092 4,547,951 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Duluth, MN...Bloomington, MN...Plymouth, MN...
SLIGHT 122,760 5,255,826 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...Rochester, MN...Sioux City, IA...
MARGINAL 236,671 10,879,807 Milwaukee, WI...Madison, WI...Sioux Falls, SD...Savannah, GA...Cedar Rapids, IA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160625 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 44,641 4,444,365 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Duluth, MN...Bloomington, MN...Plymouth, MN...
2 % 44,200 1,346,182 Rochester, MN...Wausau, WI...Mankato, MN...Winona, MN...Owatonna, MN...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160625 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 27,819 3,867,660 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Duluth, MN...Bloomington, MN...Plymouth, MN...
30 % 63,022 4,529,129 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Duluth, MN...Bloomington, MN...Plymouth, MN...
15 % 124,067 5,329,311 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...Rochester, MN...Sioux City, IA...
5 % 234,721 10,706,950 Milwaukee, WI...Madison, WI...Sioux Falls, SD...Savannah, GA...Cedar Rapids, IA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160625 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 21,540 3,777,121 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Bloomington, MN...Plymouth, MN...Brooklyn Park, MN...
30 % 51,485 4,519,791 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Duluth, MN...Bloomington, MN...Plymouth, MN...
15 % 136,557 5,396,771 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...Rochester, MN...Sioux City, IA...
5 % 240,756 11,280,393 Milwaukee, WI...Madison, WI...Sioux Falls, SD...Savannah, GA...Cedar Rapids, IA...
   SPC AC 251937

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0237 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

   VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF MN AND WI...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO
   THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO
   THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN U.S....

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
   A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT
   ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.  A MORE MARGINAL
   SEVERE STORM RISK WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
    ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHEAST.

   ...DISCUSSION...

   NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WARRANTED.

   ..DARROW.. 06/25/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES...
   A STRONG UPPER LOW IS TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE MT/SASK BORDER. 
   MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
   WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD MN BY MID AFTERNOON...AIDING IN THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT.  THE AIR MASS OVER
   MN IS RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING...WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S AND
   FULL SUNSHINE YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 3500 J/KG.  INITIAL STORMS
   MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR DUE TO FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL
   SHEAR...POSING A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. 
   HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT STORM OUTFLOWS WILL MERGE
   RELATIVELY QUICKLY...LEADING TO A PREDOMINANTLY LINEAR STORM MODE. 
   STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   PROMOTE A RISK OF RATHER WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS EASTERN MN
   INTO WI AND UPPER MI.

   ...CENTRAL PLAINS...
   THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM MN INTO PARTS OF
   IA/NEB/KS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   FORM WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE AND PERSIST THROUGH PARTS OF THE
   EVENING.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
   WILL BE WARMER IN THIS REGION THAN FARTHER NORTH. 
   HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   INDICATE THE RISK OF STRONG DOWNDRAFTS IN THE MORE INTENSE CELLS.

   ...SOUTHEAST STATES...
   WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN GA INTO SC. 
   DESPITE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...HOT AND HUMID LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS
   WILL YIELD HIGH CAPE VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
   GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN THE STRONGEST CORES.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z