Jun 25, 2017 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jun 25 19:47:12 UTC 2017 (20170625 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170625 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170625 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 15,901 91,584 Las Vegas, NM...Portales, NM...Tucumcari, NM...
SLIGHT 40,341 1,035,283 Albuquerque, NM...Santa Fe, NM...Roswell, NM...South Valley, NM...Clovis, NM...
MARGINAL 99,429 2,944,822 El Paso, TX...Colorado Springs, CO...Amarillo, TX...Pueblo, CO...Las Cruces, NM...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170625 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 23,554 118,660 Las Vegas, NM...Tucumcari, NM...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170625 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 % 15,324 89,817 Clovis, NM...Las Vegas, NM...Portales, NM...Tucumcari, NM...
15 % 40,889 1,128,842 Albuquerque, NM...Santa Fe, NM...Rio Rancho, NM...Roswell, NM...South Valley, NM...
5 % 99,781 2,817,938 El Paso, TX...Colorado Springs, CO...Amarillo, TX...Pueblo, CO...Las Cruces, NM...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170625 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 % 7,961 28,748 Las Vegas, NM...
15 % 34,853 975,831 Albuquerque, NM...Santa Fe, NM...Rio Rancho, NM...South Valley, NM...Los Lunas, NM...
5 % 95,731 2,430,389 El Paso, TX...Colorado Springs, CO...Pueblo, CO...Las Cruces, NM...Roswell, NM...
   SPC AC 251947

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0247 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

   Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   EASTERN NM...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NM
   INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST CO...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR WEST TX
   TO SOUTHEAST CO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind and large hail are expected
   across parts of central and eastern New Mexico this afternoon and
   evening. Isolated severe storms are possible elsewhere from southern
   Colorado to southern New Mexico and far west Texas.

   ...Mid-Afternoon Update...

   Minor changes have been made to the 1630z outlook, namely to
   increase severe probabilities a bit over southeast CO. Strong
   boundary-layer heating has contributed to steepening surface-3km
   lapse rates over this region and the air mass is considerably more
   buoyant within southeasterly flow where dew points are holding in
   the mid 50s. A few thunderstorms have recently developed from south
   of LIC to near LAA and this trend should continue as satellite
   imagery depicts a thickening cu field across this region. Isolated
   severe thunderstorm threat appears somewhat higher than previous
   forecast depicted. Otherwise, severe threat appears to be increasing
   across the southern High Plains in line with earlier guidance.

   Reference MCD #1148 for more information on this evolving severe
   threat.

   ..Darrow.. 06/25/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/

   ...NM/southern CO/far west TX...
   A very moist air mass exists across the region today within a
   post-frontal upslope flow regime reinforced by prior convective
   outflows. In fact, 12Z RAOB-observed precipitable water values are
   in the upper 5-15% of daily climatological values. A gradual
   thinning of prevalent low-level clouds has begun to occur across
   eastern NM as of late morning per visible satellite imagery and this
   same general trend will continue through the afternoon. Storms
   should initially develop near mountains/higher terrain of
   south-central CO and interior NM this afternoon. Heating/orographic
   lift aside, such development should be aided by a ridge-peripheral
   weak mid-level disturbance moving east/southeastward from northern
   AZ into NM per water vapor imagery.

   Steep lapse rates/moderate buoyancy in the presence of 30-40 kt
   effective shear (especially across east-central/northeast NM) will
   some support initial supercells capable of large hail. Storms should
   gradually congeal, grow upscale, and progress south-southeastward
   through late afternoon into evening across eastern NM and eventually
   toward parts of far west TX, with a corresponding increase in
   damaging wind potential.

   ...Coastal GA/Carolinas...
   A few stronger storms could occur this afternoon within a moist
   environment near/east of the cold front, but the potential for
   organized/sustained storms currently appears low.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z