Aug 29, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Aug 29 00:40:01 UTC 2014 (20140829 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140829 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140829 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140829 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 8,868 404,144 Sioux Falls, SD...Sioux City, IA...Yankton, SD...Vermillion, SD...Storm Lake, IA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140829 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 148,552 6,298,567 Oklahoma City, OK...Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140829 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 115,599 645,941 Kearney, NE...Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...North Platte, NE...Liberal, KS...
   SPC AC 290040

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0740 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

   VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS NOW DEVELOPING
   ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN MAY SPREAD ACROSS
   THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA INTO NORTHERN MONTANA...BEFORE
   WEAKENING LATE TONIGHT.

   ...MONTANA...
   WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION APPEARS TO HAVE OCCURRED WITHIN A
   CORRIDOR ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
   WAVE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES
   ACROSS ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN.  LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
   THAT THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE MONTANA/ALBERTA
   BORDER EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.  THIS
   FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR INCREASING VIGOROUS
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AIDED BY
   FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...IN THE
   PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR BENEATH 40-50 KT WESTERLY 500 MB
   FLOW.  A COUPLE OF STORMS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE INTERNATIONAL
   BORDER...AND PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF
   NORTHERN MONTANA THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST LOW
   PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND.

   ...PLAINS...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG A WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE
   MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND NEAR SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE
   FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...MAY CONTINUE TO BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES ANOTHER COUPLE OF
   HOURS.  IN GENERAL THOUGH...DUE IN PART TO THE PRESENCE OF RATHER
   MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR...THE
   ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHING PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO
   THE PLAINS APPEARS ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE WEATHER
   POTENTIAL.  THIS THREAT PROBABLY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH
   BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
   HEATING.

   ..KERR.. 08/29/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z