Feb 14, 2016 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Feb 14 16:18:55 UTC 2016 (20160214 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160214 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160214 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160214 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160214 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160214 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 141618

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1018 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

   VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY FROM PARTS
   OF NORTH TEXAS NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY.

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   DOWNSTREAM FROM DOMINANT E PAC RIDGE AND IN WAKE OF DEPARTING E CST
   TROUGH...A BROAD TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE CNTRL U.S AS A SERIES
   OF SMALL-SCALE DISTURBANCES PROGRESS SEWD FROM THE RCKYS INTO THE
   PLNS/MS VLY. LEAD IMPULSE IN THIS PATTERN...NOW OVER IA...SHOULD
   DEAMPLIFY IN CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE OH VLY LATER TODAY...WHILE JET
   STREAK NOW IN WRN MT CONTINUES SE INTO KS/OK BY 12Z MON...ENHANCING
   DCVA ACROSS THE OZARKS/LWR MS VLY.

   AT THE SFC...ARCTIC SFC RIDGE WILL ADVANCE E INTO THE WRN
   ATLANTIC...ALLOWING FOR STRENGTHENING LOW-LVL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
   ATOP RESIDUAL SFC-BASED COLD LAYER FROM E TX NEWD INTO THE TN AND OH
   VLYS.  

   ...SE MO/NE AR/WRN TN/WRN KY THIS MORNING...
   CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT BENEATH STEEP MID-LVL
   LAPSE RATE PLUME DRAWN EWD IN BASE OF IA UPR IMPULSE SHOULD FURTHER
   NARROW TODAY AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES ENE AWAY FROM MARGINAL
   MOIST AXIS. AS A RESULT...ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE BAND AND POTENTIAL
   FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDER SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH.

   ...N TX TO LWR TN VLY TNGT/EARLY MON...
   ELEVATED WAA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER A BROAD SWATH OF THE S
   CNTRL/SE U.S. TNGT AND EARLY MON AS DISTURBANCES NOW OVER THE RCKYS
   REACH THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS...AND AS SFC RIDGE MOVES OFF THE E CST.
   THIS WILL FOSTER INCREASED SWLY 925-850 MB FLOW FROM E TX ENE INTO
   THE TN VLY/CAROLINAS. RECENT COLD-AIR INTRUSION AND CURRENT SFC/STLT
   MOISTURE OBSERVATIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SUGGEST THAT ASSOCIATED
   MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN COMPARATIVELY MODEST...ALTHOUGH PW
   MAY INCREASE TO AOA 1 INCH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD FROM THE
   ARKLATEX NEWD INTO W TN. COUPLED WITH INCREASING/NOT STRONGLY
   FOCUSED HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEPENING MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT A
   FAIRLY EXTENSIVE BAND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AFTER 00-03Z FROM N
   TX ENE INTO THE LWR TN VLY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE DURING THE NIGHT AND PERSIST BEYOND 12Z MON. WHILE THE SRN
   END OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND MAY INCLUDE A FEW PATCHES OF NEARLY
   SFC-BASED ACTIVITY OVER NE TX...NEITHER THE NEAR-SFC BUOYANCY NOR
   LOW-LVL WIND FIELD ARE LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO POSE AN
   APPRECIABLE SVR THREAT.

   ...SE LA 09-12Z MON...
   A SEPARATE AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD
   ALONG LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING NNE FROM THE N CNTRL GULF OF
   MEXICO INTO SE LA. THE ONSHORE PORTION OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL
   REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...AND RESIDUAL WARM LAYER ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
   THE UPDRAFTS FAIRLY SHALLOW. THUS...THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING OVER
   THE REGION APPEARS LIMITED THROUGH 12Z.

   ..CORFIDI/PICCA.. 02/14/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z