Dec 10, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Dec 10 05:33:29 UTC 2016 (20161210 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20161210 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20161210 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20161210 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20161210 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20161210 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 100533

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1133 PM CST Fri Dec 09 2016

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few thunderstorms will be possible near the Washington and
   northern Oregon coast through Saturday night, but severe
   thunderstorms are not expected.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   Generally zonal mid-level flow will persist across the contiguous
   U.S. this period, with cool/stable low-level conditions precluding
   thunderstorm development across much of the country. However,
   embedded within westerly flow across the Pacific Northwest, a
   weakening shortwave impulse will approach the coast during the day.
   Following the passage of the attendant surface trough, steepening
   low-level lapse rates and sufficient surface moisture should support
   a few updrafts deep enough to produce lightning near the coast.

   ..Picca/Cohen.. 12/10/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z