Jan 31, 2015 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 31 00:56:26 UTC 2015 (20150131 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150131 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150131 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150131 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150131 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150131 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 310056

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0656 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

   VALID 310100Z - 311200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
   PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SEWD INTO NWRN MEXICO TONIGHT AS A SFC
   LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE AZ-MEX BORDER. A SFC TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
   LOCATED IN WRN AZ WITH WEAK INSTABILITY ANALYZED ACROSS SRN AZ WHERE
   SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S F. THIS ALONG WITH
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MAKE
   ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN AZ AND
   FAR SW NM THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
   THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED THIS EVENING OR
   TONIGHT.

   ..BROYLES.. 01/31/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z