Mar 23, 2017 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 23 00:55:06 UTC 2017 (20170323 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170323 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170323 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170323 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170323 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170323 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 230055

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0755 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

   Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for severe thunderstorms tonight appears generally
   negligible across the U.S., but areas of scattered thunderstorm
   activity remain possible, particularly across parts of the
   Southwestern deserts into southern Great Basin, portions of the
   lower Missouri Valley, and near the Florida Atlantic coast.

   ...Pacific Coast into Rockies and high Plains...
   Upper troughing within the southern branch of split westerlies
   emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific is forecast to continue to
   progress inland of the California coast, and across the Sierra
   Nevada and lower Colorado Valley, tonight.  As it does, weak
   destabilization associated with a southerly influx of low/mid-level
   moisture and large-scale forcing for ascent probably will maintain
   scattered thunderstorm activity spreading across much of Arizona and
   southern/eastern Utah tonight.

   Otherwise, thunderstorm activity elsewhere to the west of the
   Rockies appears significantly tied to daytime heating and seems
   likely to diminish through the 02-04Z time frame.  At the same time,
   lower/mid tropospheric warm advection to the east of the Rockies
   could maintain isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm activity
   across parts of the northern high Plains this evening.

   ...Pecos Valley...
   Isolated thunderstorm activity has formed off the higher terrain of
   southwest Texas and the adjacent Mexican Plateau region.  While the
   environment across this region may be marginally conducive to
   supercells, it appears that any window of opportunity for
   substantive intensification will be short-lived, as
   cooling/decoupling of the boundary layer progresses through the
   01-02Z time frame.

   ...Lower Missouri Valley...
   Mid-level moistening and destabilization, within a strengthening
   zone of lower/mid tropospheric warm advection (east of stronger
   mid-level capping associated with elevated mixed layer air now
   overspreading the central/southern Plains) may be sufficient to
   support scattered weak thunderstorm activity tonight.  This could
   initiate as early as 05-07Z, but seems more probable in the 09-12Z
   time frame.

   ...Florida Peninsula...
   Forcing to maintain ongoing thunderstorm activity near Orlando
   remains unclear. However, a plume of relatively steep mid-level
   lapse rates, associated with elevated mixed layer air emanating from
   the Plains, is contributing to considerable potential instability,
   and further steepening of lapse rates is possible this evening in
   association with mid-level cooling accompanying large-scale
   troughing now shifting across/east of the Atlantic seaboard.  Aided
   by forcing associated with a short wave impulse digging through the
   southern portion of this trough, additional thunderstorm activity
   appears possible overnight near or just east of east central Florida
   coastal areas, where an easterly component to the low-level flow
   will focus low-level convergence.

   ..Kerr.. 03/23/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z