Oct 23, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Oct 23 12:22:34 UTC 2014 (20141023 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141023 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141023 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141023 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141023 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141023 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 231222

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0722 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

   VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
   PACIFIC NORTHWEST...FAR SOUTH FLORIDA...AND PARTS OF COASTAL NEW
   ENGLAND.  SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE SITUATED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
   CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT NEWD IN RESPONSE TO THE ADVANCEMENT OF A
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INTO OH/TN VALLEYS AND CNTRL
   GULF STATES. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATTER FEATURE...A MID-LEVEL
   ANTICYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER NWRN MEXICO AND THE SRN ROCKIES.
   MEANWHILE...A BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS PRESENT WITHIN THE BASE
   OF A NERN PACIFIC LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE NRN
   INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO NRN PLAINS.

   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL
   HIGH PLAINS WILL WEAKEN TODAY WHILE SHIFTING EWD. AHEAD OF THIS
   FRONT...SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO ARKLATEX WILL
   MAINTAIN OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE DAY ONE
   PERIOD.

   ...PACIFIC NW INTO NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...

   A NUMBER OF WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL MOVE INLAND THIS PERIOD ON
   THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE HIGH-MOMENTUM AIR STREAM MENTIONED ABOVE.
   COOLING ALOFT AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES
   WILL PROMOTE A FEW TSTMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ALONG AND IN THE
   WAKE OF A PACIFIC FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS THE REGION.

   ...FAR ERN NEW ENGLAND...

   THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST...A
   FEW STORMS COULD APPROACH THE CAPE COD AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
   WITHIN THE NRN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE.

   ...S FL...

   ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY INVOF A WEAK FRONT SETTLING
   SWD THROUGH THE REGION.

   ...MIDWEST...

   SPORADIC LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
   MIDWEST WITHIN THE WARM-CONVEYOR AIR STREAM PRECEDING THE GREAT
   PLAINS MID-LEVEL TROUGH. WHILE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN
   POSSIBLE...STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY
   DISPLACED FROM A MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS PRESENT OVER THE
   CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. AS SUCH...NO TSTM AREA WILL BE INCLUDED.

   ..MEAD/LEITMAN.. 10/23/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z