Sep 26, 2016 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Sep 26 19:40:21 UTC 2016 (20160926 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160926 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160926 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 11,789 528,331 Blacksburg, VA...Beckley, WV...Bluefield, WV...Bluefield, VA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160926 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160926 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 12,060 510,925 Beckley, WV...Bluefield, WV...Bluefield, VA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160926 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 261940

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0240 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

   VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS.

   ...20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE...
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM MID/UPPER
   TROUGHING...INSOLATION AND OROGRAPHY HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SUFFICIENT
   DESTABILIZATION FOR SCATTERED ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY
   OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON.  DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...WHICH ARE ONLY SUPPORTING WEAK CAPE...ACTIVITY IS NOT
   PARTICULARLY STRONG...AND POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIVE FURTHER
   INTENSIFICATION THIS AFTERNOON SEEMS LIMITED.  

   AS A BELT OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IN THE BASE OF
   THE UPPER TROUGH NOW APPROACHES AREAS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS...THE PRESENCE OF CONVECTION DOES POSE SOME POTENTIAL
   FOR EVENTUAL DOWNWARD MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. 
   HOWEVER...BASED ON MODEL OUTPUT AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA...THE
   STRENGTH OF THIS FLOW NEAR ONGOING CONVECTION IS GENERALLY ONLY
   AROUND 30-40 KT IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER...WITH FLOW MUCH WEAKER IN
   LOWER LEVELS.  AS A RESULT...WHILE ISOLATED SURFACE GUSTS
   APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IN STRONGER
   CELLS...POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS APPEARS FAIRLY
   LOW.  EVEN SO...MOSTLY FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY AT THIS POINT...5
   PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

   ..KERR.. 09/26/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016/

   A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
   REGION TODAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE OH
   VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
   WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GULF
   COAST INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY AND
   TONIGHT.  IN GENERAL...THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR ANY
   ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES AND POCKETS OF
   CLOUDS.  IT APPEARS THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE A STRONG STORM OR
   TWO IS OVER PARTS OF WV AND ADJACENT STATES...WHERE THE SOUTHERN
   FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES OVERLAPS WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE VALUES
   FOR A LOW RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  OTHERWISE...NO
   ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z