Apr 21, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Apr 21 05:36:34 UTC 2014 (20140421 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140421 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140421 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140421 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140421 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140421 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 63,286 9,985,583 Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Ft. Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
   SPC AC 210533

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1233 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE RED RIVER
   TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF THE RED RIVER TO
   THE EASTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER KS/OK WILL DAMPEN AS IT MOVES
   E/SEWD...AS A NRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN CANADIAN
   PRAIRIES PROGRESSES TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL AID IN A COLD
   FRONT PUSHING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SWD INTO THE SRN
   PLAINS. A DRYLINE SHOULD MIX TOWARDS THE BIG COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
   PLATEAU.  

   ...TX...
   A TSTM CLUSTER CURRENTLY OVER NW TX SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER SE OK/FAR
   N-CNTRL TX AT 12Z. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
   MODULATE THE NERN EXTENT OF SEVERE RISK DURING THE AFTERNOON. TO THE
   SW...DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD BE ROBUST WITHIN A PLUME OF 50S TO LOWER
   60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE
   SHOULD INCREASE TO 1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS CNTRL TX. 

   THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD BE ALONG
   REMNANT OUTFLOW AMIDST WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA. ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD
   ALSO FORM BY LATE AFTERNOON SWWD NEAR THE DRYLINE AND OVER THE
   MOUNTAINS OF COAHUILA. WITH THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXPECTED
   TO BE OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU IN THE AFTERNOON...500 MB W/NWLYS WILL
   LARGELY BE WEAKENING TO AROUND 25-30 KT. BUT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
   INSTABILITY...MULTICELL CLUSTERS ARE PROBABLE WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE
   OF SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS SHOULD BE THE
   PRIMARY RISKS. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LIMITED GIVEN WEAK LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR AND LARGE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS /ESPECIALLY WITH SWRN
   EXTENT/.

   ..GRAMS/MOSIER.. 04/21/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z