Sep 26, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 26 15:58:51 UTC 2017 (20170926 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170926 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170926 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 20,479 858,229 Alamogordo, NM...Socorro, TX...Ruidoso, NM...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170926 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170926 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 20,614 864,524 Alamogordo, NM...Socorro, TX...Ruidoso, NM...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170926 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 20,499 857,807 Alamogordo, NM...Socorro, TX...Ruidoso, NM...
   SPC AC 261558

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1058 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

   Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   SOUTHERN NM AND FAR WEST TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong to severe storms with hail and gusty winds are possible
   this afternoon and evening over far west Texas and adjacent New
   Mexico.

   ...Southern NM/Far West TX...
   No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.  Visible
   satellite imagery shows partial clearing is occurring over this
   region, with dewpoints climbing through the 50s.  12z model
   solutions continue to suggest isolated thunderstorm development will
   occur this afternoon and evening.  Favorable effective shear values
   will promote rotating storms capable of hail and gusty winds. 
   However, similar to the last several days, convective coverage is
   expected to remain sparse.

   ..Hart/Broyles.. 09/26/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z