May 4, 2016 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed May 4 00:51:22 UTC 2016 (20160504 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160504 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160504 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 17,850 3,176,781 Raleigh, NC...Fayetteville, NC...Cary, NC...Wilmington, NC...Greenville, NC...
MARGINAL 44,609 6,245,842 Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Greensboro, NC...Chesapeake, VA...Durham, NC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160504 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160504 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 17,474 3,098,183 Raleigh, NC...Fayetteville, NC...Cary, NC...Wilmington, NC...Greenville, NC...
5 % 45,021 6,290,670 Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Greensboro, NC...Chesapeake, VA...Durham, NC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160504 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 17,466 3,076,099 Raleigh, NC...Fayetteville, NC...Cary, NC...Wilmington, NC...Greenville, NC...
5 % 44,926 6,300,084 Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Greensboro, NC...Chesapeake, VA...Durham, NC...
   SPC AC 040051

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0751 PM CDT TUE MAY 03 2016

   VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE PIEDMONT INTO COASTAL PLAIN OF NORTH CAROLINA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS EAST
   OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC
   COAST REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG STORMS LINGER TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
   REGION...BUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS GENERALLY IN THE PROCESS OF
   DIMINISHING.

   ...CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO THE SRN MID ATLANTIC COAST...
   POCKETS OF SUBSTANTIVE INSTABILITY LINGER AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
   WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...IN THE PRESENCE
   OF MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN MOST
   AREAS THROUGH 02-03Z...AS INSTABILITY WANES WITH THE LOSS OF
   INSOLATION AND IMPACT FROM ONGOING/PRIOR CONVECTION.

   AN AREA OF ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT NEAR THE EXIT REGION OF A
   CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET NOSING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MAY
   BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE MAINTENANCE OF ONGOING STORMS ACROSS THE
   PIEDMONT INTO COASTAL PLAIN OF NORTH CAROLINA.  IT IS UNCLEAR IF
   THERE WILL BE MUCH FURTHER INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THIS
   REGION...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT STORMS MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS A BIT LONGER
   THAN OTHER AREAS /PERHAPS THROUGH 03-05Z/.

   ...FLORIDA PENINSULA...
   UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITHIN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
   OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE
   SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME OF THIS
   ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT COASTAL AREAS NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
   OF TAMPA BAY TOWARD 09-12Z.  HOWEVER...ANY APPRECIABLE RISK FOR
   SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY SEEMS MORE PROBABLE AFTER 12Z THAN BEFORE.

   ..KERR.. 05/04/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z