Jan 24, 2018 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 24 05:14:13 UTC 2018 (20180124 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180124 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180124 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20180124 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20180124 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20180124 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 240514

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1114 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across coastal areas of the
   Pacific Northwest through tonight.

   ...Synopsis...

   The western upper ridge will progress eastward across the Rockies to
   the Plains this period, while an upper trough moves onshore the
   Pacific coast. As the trough moves towards the coast, an intense jet
   streak will overspread coastal OR and CA and midlevel cooling will
   occur. Concurrently at the surface, a weak cold front will move
   inland over the Pacific Northwest and northern CA and modest
   steepening of low to midlevel lapse rates will occur. Forecast
   soundings indicate very weak, albeit adequate, instability for
   isolated lightning strikes along the coast and perhaps into portions
   of the Willamette Valley. Of note, background flow will be strong as
   this system moves inland and may produce damaging winds. However,
   these winds will not be convective in nature, thus precluding the
   need for severe probs.

   ..Leitman.. 01/24/2018

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z