Jan 23, 2017 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jan 23 12:41:32 UTC 2017 (20170123 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170123 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170123 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170123 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170123 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170123 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 231241

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0641 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

   Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few thunderstorms are possible today across the Middle Atlantic
   region, while isolated storms may also develop from California into
   the southern Great Basin.

   ...Synopsis...
   A deep occluded low over the Carolinas this morning will move slowly
   east-northeastward to just off the Mid Atlantic coast by this
   evening.  In the interim, a few elevated thunderstorms will be
   possible this morning over VA, and some low-topped convection may
   develop this afternoon in association with the cold core low over
   eastern NC.  South of the deep cyclone, a cold front has already
   crossed FL.  A few convective showers will be possible today across
   central/south FL, though warming midlevel/equilibrium level
   temperatures by midday should limit the potential for lightning
   production.  Farther west, one midlevel trough is already
   progressing inland over CA and the Great Basin.  A few low-topped
   thunderstorms will be possible along the CA coast as a broad area of
   cellular convection spreads inland with the midlevel thermal trough,
   and as the closed low off the OR coast rotates southward.  Isolated
   lightning strikes will also be possible in the steep lapse rate
   environment on the cyclonic side of the midlevel jet.

   ..Thompson/Peters.. 01/23/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z