Oct 22, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Oct 22 06:00:45 UTC 2014 (20141022 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141022 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141022 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141022 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141022 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141022 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 220600

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. OTHER
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL NORTHEAST...PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST...AND SOUTH FLORIDA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A PROGRESSIVE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS
   TO THE WEST OF A CLOSED CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE
   MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST SEABOARD. THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF THUNDERSTORM
   POTENTIAL ACROSS THE PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE INFLUENCED BY AN
   EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CENTRAL
   CANADIAN PROVINCES AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS INCLUDING SOUTH
   FL...THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND THE COASTAL NORTHEAST
   STATES WHERE A MODESTLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL GRAZE COASTAL NEW
   ENGLAND.

   ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST...
   DPVA/WARM ADVECTION PRECEDING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS FAR NORTHEAST AS THE
   UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
   PARTS OF CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
   MODESTLY BUOYANT WARM SECTOR ADJACENT TO THE ADVANCING FRONT...OR
   POSSIBLY ACROSS EASTERN CO IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL
   UPSLOPE. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR/LIMITED MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE NOT CURRENTLY
   WARRANTED.

   ..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 10/22/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z