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    Day 2 Outlook >
Feb 21, 2012 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Feb 21 15:52:02 UTC 2012  (Print Version)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 211548
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0948 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2012
   
   VALID 211630Z - 221200Z
   
   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...
   
   A BROADLY CYCLONIC MIDLEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE D1
   PERIOD...FEATURING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE OH VALLEY
   THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
   GREAT LAKES.  ELSEWHERE...A CUT-OFF LOW WILL PROGRESS SSEWD OFF THE
   W COAST OF BAJA.  IN THE LOW LEVELS...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
   ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
   MID-ATLANTIC COASTS.  THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL BECOME
   QUASI-STATIONARY OVER SRN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY BEFORE LIFTING
   NWD AS A WARM FRONT.  
   
   12Z SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE-DERIVED PW IMAGERY INDICATE THAT AIR
   MASS INVOF ABOVE-MENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE
   OH VALLEY IS RATHER DRY WITH PW VALUES OF LESS THAN .5 INCH.  AND
   WHILE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MOIST
   CONVECTION BASED ABOVE 600 MB...A MORE ROBUST TSTM THREAT IS NOT
   EXPECTED UNTIL THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT INTERACTS WITH THE
   MOIST...UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE GULF STREAM.
   
   ..MEAD/MOSIER.. 02/21/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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Page last modified: February 21, 2012
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