SPC Day 2 Thunderstorm Outlook Issued 0830Z 20040113

<--Previous Outlook        Next Outlook-->


ZCZC SPCSWODY2 ALL
ACUS02 KWNS 130733
SPC AC 130733

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2004

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PBF TUP 20 NW TCL 45
SW 0A8 LUL 25 SSW HEZ 15 SSE LFK 55 WNW LFK TYR TXK PBF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX...FORECAST TO BE LOCATED
IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
SEWD AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY 15/12Z. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE IN CONCERT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LOW
SHOULD HELP PUSH AN ARCTIC FRONT SEWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE A
WEAKER TROUGH/FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE SERN STATES BY THURSDAY MORNING.

...LOWER MS VALLEY....
ALTHOUGH DYNAMICAL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE
LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
AND DIURNAL HEATING MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK FORCING
 AND MUCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT.

...CA/ORE...
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE EL HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 650 MB
WITH TEMPERATURES AT THIS LEVEL AROUND -10C. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE 
LIGHTNING THREAT SHOULD BE LOW DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

..IMY.. 01/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$