SPC Day 2 Thunderstorm Outlook Issued 0830Z 20040114

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ZCZC SPCSWODY2 ALL
ACUS02 KWNS 140828
SPC AC 140828

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CST WED JAN 14 2004

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE ELP 30 SSE GDP
15 NE INK 20 SE BGS 45 WSW BWD 55 ESE JCT 25 WNW HDO 55 NW LRD.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
EXISTING UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN U.S EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
DROPPING SE ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY TAPS RESERVOIR OF ARCTIC AIR OVER
ONTARIO...AND ALLOWS POLAR VORT TO REDEVELOP SE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
AT THE SAME TIME...A COMPLEX EVOLUTION INVOLVING SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS
NOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND BAJA CA EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A
CONSOLIDATED TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SWWD INTO NW MEXICO BY 12Z FRIDAY.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED
SSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE VLY.

...SW/S CNTRL TX...
A MODEST DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY /WITH 850 TO 500 MB LIFTED
INDICES DECREASING TO AROUND 0/ WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY/
EARLY FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF SWRN AND S CNTRL TX AS SSWLY MID LEVEL
FLOW  STRENGTHENS ABOVE SHALLOW DOME OF COOL AIR AT THE SURFACE. 
TAKEN TOGETHER...WEAK BUT SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION...INCREASING 850
MB MOISTURE INFLUX AND GRADUAL STEEPENING OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH FLOW OFF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU ALL SUGGEST THAT
EMBEDDED THUNDER COULD AFFECT PARTS OF THE LWR RIO GRANDE
VLY...MAINLY DURING SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

..CORFIDI.. 01/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$