SPC Day 2 Thunderstorm Outlook Issued 0830Z 20040116

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ZCZC SPCSWODY2 ALL
ACUS02 KWNS 160828
SPC AC 160828

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2004

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E
PSX 50 S CLL 35 NNE CLL 20 NNE GGG 10 WNW MLU 45 SW JAN 45 N MOB 30
ESE PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CRP 35 S SAT 55
E JCT 20 WSW SEP 30 NE ADM 25 W FYV 30 W DYR HSV 20 NE CSG 20 SE ABY
45 WNW CTY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E TX EWD ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
COMPLEX SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL FOCUS THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM THREAT
TOMORROW ACROSS THE NW GULF COAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW NEAR/S OF BAJA CA WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS MEXICO
TO TX TONIGHT...AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER N TX TOMORROW.  AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING SWD OVER BAJA WILL ALSO EJECT ENEWD ACROSS
THE NW GULF TOWARD SE LA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AT THE
SURFACE...A LOW IS FORECAST TO OCCLUDE OVER SE OK/NE TX FROM LATE
DAY 1 INTO DAY 2...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/E TX
TO THE S OF THE LOW.  

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS E TX EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...AND THIS CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A PRE-FRONTAL
SQUALL LINE THAT MOVES EWD ACROSS LA/SRN MS DURING THE
DAY...REACHING THE FL PANHANDLE LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THOUGH THE
DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION IS IN QUESTION IN ADVANCE OF
THIS EXPECTED PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT A THREAT OF EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING
GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.  FARTHER W...LOW-LEVEL
DESTABILIZATION APPEARS MORE PROBABLE ACROSS E TX/WRN LA IN THE WAKE
OF THE MORNING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. IF CLOUD BREAKS ARE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOA 70 F NEAR THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT...THEN PROXIMITY TO COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
THREAT ACROSS E TX/WRN LA WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT.

..THOMPSON.. 01/16/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$