SPC Day 2 Thunderstorm Outlook Issued 0830Z 20040117

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ZCZC SPCSWODY2 ALL
ACUS02 KWNS 170816
SPC AC 170816

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2004

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE 7R4 25 SW HEZ
45 NW JAN 15 WNW CBM 40 NNW BHM 20 W RMG 15 SSE AND 10 ESE ILM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE DEEP SRN STREAM TROUGH NOW OVER TX AND MEXICO WILL MOVE EWD AND
LOSE AMPLITUDE TOMORROW IN A DEVELOPING CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME OVER
THE ERN STATES.  WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH...ONE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW OVER THE PAC COAST OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ENEWD TO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND ANOTHER TROUGH NOW
DIGGING SWD OVER AZ WILL MOVE OVER THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO TOMORROW NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW NOW IN NW TX WILL
MOVE EWD TOWARD THE MS RIVER AND WEAKEN BY DAY 2 AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH LOSES AMPLITUDE...WHILE A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
SEWD ACROSS THE GULF STATES IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH TIME
FROM LATE DAY 1 INTO FIRST HALF OF DAY 2 IN CONJUNCTION WITH
WEAKENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT.  WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE
WARM SECTOR /MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/N FL AREA MAY SUPPORT A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT OF DAMAGING
GUSTS THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

..THOMPSON.. 01/17/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$