SPC Day 2 Thunderstorm Outlook Issued 0830Z 20040122

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ZCZC SPCSWODY2 ALL
ACUS02 KWNS 220828
SPC AC 220828

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CST THU JAN 22 2004

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE YUM 30 W GBN
PHX 45 NNW SAD 50 N SVC 45 E ALM 40 SE HOB 35 E JCT 15 SW AUS 35 NE
CLL 20 SE LFK 30 NW LCH 35 W 7R4.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER NRN BAJA WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO
AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVE EWD OVER NRN MEXICO BY FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE EWD
MOTION OF THE BAJA LOW WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER TROUGH /NOW NEAR 145 W/ FROM THE ERN PAC...WHILE A SEPARATE
NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD TOWARD THE PAC NW COAST.  INCREASING
WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE THE APPROACH OF THE SRN
STREAM TROUGH CONTRIBUTES TO PRESSURE FALLS AS FAR S AS W TX.  THE
NET RESULT WILL BE INCREASING SLY FLOW/WAA ACROSS TX WHICH WILL HELP
BREAK DOWN THE COASTAL TROUGH AND ALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN
SPREADING INLAND FROM THE WRN GULF LATE IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...
A BROAD TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH AN ASSOCIATED
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN AZ DURING THE
DAY...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EWD TOWARD SRN NM AND SW
TX TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL LOW AND REGION OF RICHEST MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SPREAD EWD/ENEWD.  A SEPARATE SWATH OF SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY ALSO DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT INVOF THE
MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST. CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON A STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET...THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO MARGINAL
FOR ANY THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS.

..THOMPSON.. 01/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$